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Sunday, October 17, 2004
Research 2K Poll in NH
Posted by DavidNYCAccording to Polling Report, Research 2000 just did a new poll in New Hampshire for the Concord Monitor. However, I can't find any stories about it yet. In any event, here are the details (likely voters, 9/20 - 9/23 in parens):
Kerry: 49 (46)
Bush: 45 (46)
Other/Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ��4%)
John Kerry is slightly ahead in favorability, 48-42, while Bush is at 45-46. (The "other," by the way, include 2% for Ralph.) Fact is, New Hampshire is in the bag for us. Bush has only hit 50% in any poll once ever, and has hit 49% just once as well. Kerry has led almost every time. A year ago, when I first began this site, I opined that New Hampshire was moving steadily blue-ward. I think that prediction will bear out.
In all likelihood, NH's four electoral votes won't come into play. Nonetheless, it's nice to see the Northeast turn solid blue, and any state that moves out of the GOP's grasp is, of course, good news for us. Hopefully, in the coming years, this Dem trend will affect NH's Congressional representation as well.
UPDATE: Link available here.
Posted at 03:36 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
ok...has anyone seen that horrid looking USAtoday poll? It really makes me wanna puke.
Posted by: selena at October 17, 2004 03:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yes, I saw the USA/Gallup poll with Bush ahead by 8 points. I realize Kerry is trailing in just about every major poll right now, but now way is he down by 8 points. Gallup is also weighted to favor the GOP, so take that into account. Bush is probably leading by at most 4 points, and I wonder if it's even that high.
Posted by: pepe at October 17, 2004 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Many state polls are actually starting to look good for Kerry.
WISCONSIN: Rasmussen, whose recent polls nationally and in many states had been trending Bush, has Kerry edging into the lead in Wisconsin, 48-47.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Wisconsin_Fall%202004.htm
IOWA: Even more of a Rasmussen swing to Kerry, with him up 50-46.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Iowa_Fall%202004.htm
FLORIDA: Although the GOP-leaning firm Strategic Vision is still giving us Bush leads in FL, Insider Advantage has Kerry up 48-44 and the Washington Post (from pollster TRPI) has it a 48-all tie.
http://www.race2004.net/states.html?state=fl
MINNESOTA: Even Strategic Vision has Kerry up a couple. The last poll failing to show Kerry ahead in Minnesota was Rasmussen on Sept. 23.
http://www.race2004.net/states.html?state=mn
PENNSYLVANIA: Kerry holds a small, but conistent, lead across several polls. Bush is stuck around 46% in a lot of them.
http://www.race2004.net/states.html?state=pa
OHIO: Very close, putting aside a recent Strategic Vision poll.
http://www.race2004.net/states.html?state=oh
Interestingly, as of yet, the national polls have not been looking as good for Kerry. However, Kerry may have a little momentum in the latest Zogby poll:
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=892
And, Democracy Corps has Kerry up 3 over Bush nationally among likely voters. Although D-Corps is a Democratic-leaning firm, its 2000 polls were a lot more accurate relative to the actual outcome than were Gallup's:
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/
Posted by: Alan R. at October 17, 2004 04:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
At this point, what with these polls all over the place, I think it is time to seriously consider banning all publication of polling data 7 days prior to election day. I mean, how can USA Today/CNN/Gallup be so far out of touch with Reuters/Zogby, with all the polls showing unlikely swing on a daily basis. I believe a ban 7 days from election day would prevent polls from influencing people's decision.
Posted by: bigguy at October 17, 2004 04:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That poll uses Gallup's discredited likely voter model. The margin among RVs is 49-46. I also have not seen what the party ID of the respondents was.
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 17, 2004 04:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A ban on polls would pretty clearly run afoul of the First Amendment.
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 17, 2004 04:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DavidNYC;
A legal ban is obviously out of the question. Thank you for pointing that out. However, some sort of journalistic convention may be in order here to help preserve the integrity of the secret ballot. I don't know, guess I'm just spouting off out of frustration with the seemingly pro-Repub leaning tendency of the corporate media. I sure hope some of this data doesn't end up discouraging ppl. into staying home on election day.
Hey, maybe it's time to begin a thread titled "Predictions." I think it would be great to see what ppl. believe will happen state by state on election day. I think we are close enough now to really have a sense of which way some of these swing states are going to break. Anyhow, thanks for keeping this website so interesting.
Posted by: bigguy at October 17, 2004 04:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I understand your frustration, bg. I can't imagine the media would ever consent to such a self-imposed rule, though - and with the Internet, I'm not even sure such a rule would be helpful.
As for a predictions thread... good idea. Monday is usually the biggest day around here, so I'll toss up a thread on the subject tomorrow.
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 17, 2004 05:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
whenever gallup thinks they can get away with it they will try to put bush way ahead, after a few days of buzz they will show therace closer and on election day they will be down to a very close race.they don`t want to look foolish and will call it right at the end.when kerry surged after debate 1 they joined the crowd. i do think kerry is down 3points but is looking ok in swing states.
Posted by: joel at October 17, 2004 05:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
One word for you on NH. Nashua.
The Boston exurb is shifting a close state. I predict more sprawl, more shifting.
Posted by: PAVoter at October 17, 2004 06:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
And, DavidNYC, you might be surprised about what the Supreme Court would say about a ban on polling in the week before an election. A total ban would be likely unconstitutional, but they've upheld a number of restrictions on election day advertising.
Posted by: PAVoter at October 17, 2004 06:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Good news. Zogby shows Kerry catching up some. Kerry was up 2 points on the Saturday polling.
The horse race:
Three day tracking polls Today (Yesterday)
Zogby
Bush 46 (48)
Kerry 44 (44)
Unsure 8 (7)
ABC
Bush 50 (50)
Kerry 46 (47)
TIPP
Bush 47 (47)
Kerry 43 (44)
Unsure 10 (10)
Rasmussen
Bush 48 (48)
Kerry 46 (46)
Unsure 3 (3)
Average
Bush 47.8 (48.3)
Kerry 44.8 (45.3)
Bush +3.0 (+3.0)
Posted by: DFuller at October 17, 2004 07:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Lets keep in mind that only one poll, the Republican-biased Gallup, has bush over 50%. I can only hope the undecided voters will swing for Kerry, the challenger, as they usually do. Has anyone heard anything about how the war will affect this? Will there be more support for staying the course with bush? Then there are the new voters -- there's a lot more energy than in the past. I reviewed polls from before the 2000 election, and some had Bush up 49-43, but he still lost the popualr vote and would've lost Florida except for some confused retirees.
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 17, 2004 08:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Regardding NH, its heartening to hear the state that should be blue is going there. The republicans may have picked up southern whites in the paritsan realignment, but we've picked up many educated suburnites in the states of the north. Whither the northern republicans? Didn't Rhode Island's Lincoln Chaffee say, 2 yrs ago, he would switch as soon as the Dems controlled the Senate?
My only hope is that Ohio can get its economy and culture together, in the Cleveland and Columbus ares, and begin attracting those college-educated young professionals that make a state blue. If we can get Ohio into the blue column, and keep Iowa/Wisconsin, we're talking Democratic victories as far as we can see ...
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 17, 2004 08:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Will there be more support for staying the course with bush?
Who knows? The first election after 9/11 may not follow the usual election voting patterns. No one knows, and that's the $64,000 question in this election.
Posted by: pepe at October 17, 2004 08:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Many conservatives, in Wisconsin and other states, are unhappy with Bush's massive spending and his attacks on civil liberties. While these unhappy conservatives are probably not prepared to switch their vote to Kerry, many would seriously consider switching their vote to Libertarian Michael Badnarik. So by helping Badnarik get more visibility, you can hurt Bush chances of winning battleground states like Wisconsin!
Posted by: VoteBadnarik at October 17, 2004 09:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Marc Cittone, the influx of college-educated young people into a state is certainly not an indication of it becoming bluer. Here in Minnesota, the Democratic Party is on the verge of political irrelevance because of college-educated young families in suburbia are rabidly conservative and are overwhelming the Democratic majorities in "Old Minnesota", which tends to blue-collar, uneducated and Democratic.
Posted by: Mark at October 17, 2004 10:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Joel and Marc great blogs. Guys this election has been so fustrating. Bush continues to get a pass for all of his failures. The nation wide polls keep showing him ahead (even though most of them are in the margin of error.) However are only hope is that the swings states will continue to show promise. Let's be honest guys,..... its OHIO!!!! No republican has ever won the white-house with out the buckeye state. And whats so fustrating is that all the polls in Ohio have Bush up by 1-2%. Forget strategic vision their way to republican leaning. Ohio has probably been hit the hardest in regards to outsourcing. However 50% of the state puts religion before their pocketbooks. That's why Kerry has to try so hard to sell his message in the buckeye state. Guys this election is the most important one in our life times. Has anyone seen the World polls that give kerry a 80% to Bush's 20% advantage if the world could have a say? Then Sinclairs bitch ass wants to put a swifty infomercial on the air in the swingstates. Guy's It's Ohio!!!!
Posted by: godfrey at October 17, 2004 10:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I couldn't agree more, godfrey. This election will be decided in Ohio. The Buckeye State is ground zero here in 2004, and it will determine who the next president is.
This is not exactly comforting to think about. No Republican has won without Ohio, and Ohio has never voted for a Massachusetts Yankee for president. That Ohio is even in play, considering the horrible state of its economy, is truly worrisome. Ohio should already be in Kerry's pocket, but Kerry's message of hope is obviously being met with just enough resistance to keep the state in Bush's column by 1 to 3 points.
The effect of the gay marriage referendum is an X factor, too, and let's face it, this cannot be good news for Kerry. Let's just hope that all those college kids who registered actually go to the polls in record-breaking numbers, because we know the homophobic social and religious conservatives will. Unless Kerry gains a boost soon, I am afraid he will lose Ohio, albeit just barely.
Posted by: pepe at October 17, 2004 11:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Actually the latest Ohio polls are mixed.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html
Posted by: Jocko at October 17, 2004 11:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hmm Ohio seems to have a good chance of going for Kerry, but even if it doesn't I suspect Florida will. The race hinges on Ohio more for Bush than Kerry. Let's hope for Kerry winning both.
Posted by: oddofme at October 18, 2004 03:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kery starting to look stronger in WI.
Source: Rasmussen
Current Bush 47 Kerry 48 (last Bush +3)
Posted by: DFuller at October 18, 2004 08:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Um, I hate to change the subject, but is anyone having trouble with the comments link on the predictions thread above? I clicked it and I got nothing. I thought there was an error in the address and tried typing what I thought was the correct address manually, but got nothing.
Posted by: Dale at October 18, 2004 08:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The closer the election gets, the murkier it gets.
Kerry 253, Bush 223, Tied 62
Strong Kerry:
180 - CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, MI, NY, RI, VT, WA
Weak Kerry
30 - ME (3), NH, NJ, OR
Barely Kerry
43 - IA, MN, NM, PA
Tied
62 - FL, OH, ME (1), CO(4)
Barely Bush
10 - CO(5), NV
Weak Bush
22 - AR, MO, WV
Strong Bush
191 - AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY
Posted by: DFuller at October 18, 2004 09:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Looks like the comments section on the poll thread (top one) is broken.
I cast my vote for Kerry already!
Posted by: The Other Rob at October 18, 2004 09:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Good news from Zogby today!!!!
Race is once again tied.
Bush 45, Kerry 45, Undecided 7
Posted by: DFuller at October 18, 2004 10:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
First of all, I think we have a good chance in either OH or FL, and we just need one. It is ridiculous that Bush is a contender at all, I admit.
Mark,
Curious what's happening in Minnesota. Colorado seems to have undergone the same problem, with the arrival of more republicans into the state. Not that it affects the presidential race, but we are electing fewer democratic governors and senators ('02 was the high tide of republicanism here, some say). Is Minnesota's shift because Republican suburbanites are moving into the state, because suburbanites are becoming more republican, or because Democrats are losing their hold on blue-collar or rural voters? What are the issues that push Minnesota away from blue?
In some states, like Oregon, VT, or now NH, it seems the influx of newcomers has been largely liberal, and I've been reading how suburbs of Chicago and other high-tech cities are trending more democratic as the Republicans nationally move farther to the rabid right. This seems like a reversal of the "partisan shift" of social conservatives away from Democrats in the 80s.
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 18, 2004 10:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Getting to 270 is going to be tough. The easiest way will be to win OH or FL. The other way seems to be holding all the Gore states, NH, NV, & at 4 CO. If CO votes to split and the loser in CO uses their 4 votes to win the election, this election will hit the Supreme Court. If the election ends up in the Supreme Court, Bush wins.
Posted by: DFuller at October 18, 2004 11:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
it is highly unlikely that kerry will win ohio. so it seems if he doesn`t win florida he is done for.i suppose events in the next 2 weeks can change things but who doesn`t believe we won`t have a terrrorist alert 2 days before the election!
Posted by: joel at October 18, 2004 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The biggest news today is that Bush is in NJ. To be honest, I do not understand why. NJ has about as likely a chance to go red at this point as NC going blue. It would see like he would focus more on states he has more of a shot of wining than the extremely long shot of NJ.
Posted by: DFuller at October 18, 2004 03:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I keep on hoping NJ is a long shot for BUsh and hoping they pump money there. But I believe the state is closed than either party would like, although I expect a Dem Win of 5-10% ,not Gore's 16%.
Posted by: erg at October 18, 2004 04:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Top five Bush states to switch:
1. New Hampshire (likely)
2. Ohio (very possible)
3. Florida (possible if they don't succeed in cheating)
4. Colorado (even if it weren't close, the EV-splitting initiative, if it passes, will give us 4 votes extra)
5. Nevada (possible if it's a good night)
Top five Gore states to switch:
1. Iowa (possible)
2. Wisconsin (possible)
3. New Mexico (possible - it was close last time, and it should be this time too)
4. Minnesota (not likely, but possible if it's a bad night)
5. Maine-2 (not likely, but possible if it's a bad night)
Even CNN's electoral map, which uses only Gallup (the famous "Dewey beats Truman" pollster, which also had Bush up 13 points one week before the 2000 election), shows that as of last week Bush's 301-237 advantage is down to 277-261. They say that Kerry picks up OH and NH, but Bush picks up IA, WI, NM, and ME-2. Most polling shows IA and NM too close to call, with ME-2, WI, OH, and NH leaning Kerry.
I thought we'd have a better chance at FL than OH, but now it seems to be the opposite. Nader's not on the ballot in OH, we're ahead (according to many polls) in OH, and there hasn't been nearly the amount of fraud reported in OH that there has been in FL. Also, I am beginning to think Bush should concede NH...he barely won it last time, and except for a stint in September, it has been in the Kerry column all summer, meaning we are poised for a clean sweep of the Northeast. Meanwhile, OH is for the first time often favoring Kerry. What with our enormous GOTV efforts there and the fact that their machines are having a paper trail, I think it's at the top of the list...
If we get OH and NH, Bush will need to find 14 votes somewhere to win...perhaps in combining WI and NM, IA and WI, or something like that. But since WI is looking blue again, it seems unlikely that he could.
Posted by: Nathaniel at October 18, 2004 06:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment