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Saturday, October 23, 2004
The Final 11, According to the NYT
Posted by DavidNYCThe New York Times says that ads are running in just eleven states now. The Gore states:
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
The Bush states:
Colorado
Florida
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
The NYT talks about sudden Bush surge in Michigan - does anyone know what they are talking about? Because I don't see it. Of course, this piece is written by Adam Nagourney and Kit Seelye, two of the worst heathers at the Times. And they manage to squeeze in a Bush campaign criticism of Kerry for visiting Colorado, while just mentioning in passing Bush's absurdly wasted time in NJ.
They also make the typical mistake of acting as though all of these states are equally in play, and they say that Kerry is in worse shape because there are six Gore states allegedly up for grabs while only five Bush states are. But I think we all know that PA, NM and MI are quite unlikely to flip at this point, while NH, OH and FL are very likely to.
The piece also says nothing about where the 527s and other affiliates are on the air. I think there could easily be a surprise switch outside of this list, at least in part due to the activities of non-campaign groups.
Posted at 09:16 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
There was a Detroit News poll published a couple of days ago that had Bush over Kerry by 45 to 43 or something like that. EPIC/MRA just released one today that has Kerry at around 49 and Bush at around 43. I doubt seriously that Michigan is in play although Kerry will be here on Monday. Probably to rally the GOTV efforts.
Here is another useful url for Democracy Corps (Carville and Greenberg). Don't know if it has been posted yet. Interesting analysis of current voter trends.
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/index.html
Posted by: Randy at October 23, 2004 09:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
They must be looking at the Mitchell Research poll that had Bush at 47 and Kerry at 43. Of course, three other poll have come out since that poll that show Kerry, including one by Strategic Vision. But some reporters can't resist the headlines.
Posted by: kariq at October 23, 2004 10:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The KERRY states, haha.
Posted by: mt at October 23, 2004 10:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
An unexpected effect of me watching the polls carefully this year has been the eye-opening experience of watching the new while knowing the true story. It has amazed me how purposefully wrong many news shows have been. I have been especially shocked by CNN and MSNBC, who I used to think were lliberal leaning. Not at all!
I'm curious whether this is a new phenomenon or if the same thing was happening in earlier elections and just missed by me because of my lack of knowledge? This rookie would like to hear from some vets on this issue.
Posted by: Randy at October 23, 2004 11:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Frankly, this is an embarrassing article for a newspaper like the TIMES. Their "insights" have a lot of holes and a curious mix of facts and half-facts. What is the point of this article? We should expect better from such a major newspaper like the TIMES. Seems like journalistic standards are falling everywhere. It's articles like this one that make me seriously question the standards of the entire news media. What media source(s) do y'all regard as the best and most factually reliable?
Posted by: pepe at October 24, 2004 12:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The local FOX affiliate in Little Rock, AR is reporting that former President Clinton has asked John Kerry to visit Arkansas. An article in last Sunday's WAPO reported that Clinton would recover from his recent surgery in Arkansas so that he could be close to his library before it's upcoming grand opening and to allow limited campaign events [for Kerry] in Arkansas.
Clinton plans to leave Chappaqua for Arkansas soon, to continue his recuperation and work on final plans for the library opening. This will allow limited campaign events in Arkansas, though polls have Bush, who won the state comfortably in 2000, with a solid lead there. This is the second presidential election that has left Clinton bridling on the sidelines; in 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore spurned most of Clinton's offers to help on the campaign trail.
Hopefully Kerry won't make the same mistake that Gore did in 2000. I'm hoping this will put Kerry over the hump in Arkansas and I'm keeping my fingers crossed until election day.
On a lighter note, actor Ted Danson and his native Arkansas wife, actress Mary Steenburgen, met with Kerry campaign workers today to give a pep talk. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'll always remember Danson as the retired Red Sox pitcher and Boston bartender Sam Malone.
Posted by: rob at October 24, 2004 12:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What makes New Mexico unlikely to flip? The polls have hardly been unanimously Kerry.
Posted by: anon at October 24, 2004 01:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Anybody seen the latest data out of Hawaii. Scary it has Bush in the lead and while I suspect it's just a bad poll one hasn't been taken in about 1.5 months previous to this so I'm a bit worried.
Posted by: David Trinh at October 24, 2004 02:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I��ve seen both polls, the one from Michigan and the other from Hawaii. But I think that they are just exceptions and that Kerry will win the states easily. But now I��m a bit worried about Iowa and Wisconsin. What if Bush wins them + Florida --- Kerry wins Minnesota, Ohio and New Mexico, which is very likely now and the Colorado amendment does not pass ? Then it��s 271-267 for Bush.
Posted by: Roland Lemberger at October 24, 2004 02:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Michigan's OK.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 24, 2004 03:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Everyone other than Mason-Dixon and one Gallup poll has Kerry up in NM. Do you think MD is an unbiased pollster?
Check out their red swing state polls:
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6256939/
Then look at their blue swing state polls:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6056143/
Everyone one of their polls is a republican outlier on http://2.004k.com/. Coincidence?
If only the Bushies could have MD conduct the election for them too! NM will go Kerry, by 3-5%.
Posted by: forethought at October 24, 2004 05:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Moral of the story: IF we can get Detroiters to the polls, we're fine.
I'm a downtown District Polling Leader, and I can tell you this: the list we have this year is reportedly no less than 7 times larger than in any time in recent history. Literally hundreds of people in a district that only has a few hundred people. The excitement here in a city that doesn't get excited about politics is palpable. Everyday, when I do my canvassing, I'm amazed at the level of interest, and quite frankly, the level of solid knowledge of the race and issues that wasn't there before.
Never mind the Mitchell survey; the guy gets on the local NBC 'Crossfire'-type show and spews off his Republicanism every single Sunday. No offense, but the guy is fishing. The poll was quickly replaced with 2 national polls showing state leads of 5-7% JK.
We (Gore) won the city 93-7 last time, but the turnout in the city was near 28%. We're expecting around 45-55% minimum in a city of one million (83% African-American).
If the weather is good next Tuesday, this won't even be close. Seriously.
Posted by: bobbycodemonkey at October 24, 2004 06:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
zogby has bush up 2 for the 3red day today. the bad thing is that bush hit 50% in yestersdays single day sample. on the positive side he said only 4% are undecided and they are leaning kerry`s way.
looks like it` s going to be a gotv effort. it seems like it`s possible kerry could win pa, ohio, and florida very easily and lose the national popular vote.wouldn`t that be justice!
Posted by: JEREMY at October 24, 2004 08:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A new Florida poll in the Miami Herald seems to have somewhat good news for Kerry, since it shows a dead heat with Bush at 46%, Kerry at 46%, and Nader (boo) at 1%. 7% were still undecided, and so if those tend to break for Kerry we may be able to win it.
pepe asked if people thought the results of the election would be known on Wed., Nov. 3rd. My guess would be yes, that it will break slightly one way or the other (undecideds for Kerry, please!). I do fear that if it's really close the Republicans will try to steal the election again. They are trying to intimidate voters in Ohio, as you probably heard, by posting monitors in strong Democratic areas. I don't know if it will work in Ohio, but they tried that tactic here in KY at the last election and it didn't really work. When it came right down to it the Republicans didn't actually challenge that many voters. They mainly they just stood around and tried to look official and threatening, but if anything it may have boosted turnout slightly. I wish they'd posted some Dems in Republican areas challenging their credentials, but I suppose that would just backfire.
I'm still worried about an October surprise on the lines of Osama capture, a new terror "threat" raising the alert level, or something else. I just hope our secret weapon Clinton can do a bit of effective campaigning.
Final point: control of the Senate is definitely up for grabs, as races in Republican leaning states like NC, KY, and AL possibly going to the Dems.
Posted by: Ben at October 24, 2004 09:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just stumbled onto a poll that showed a tie in HAWAII (with - believe it or not - Bush actually AHEAD by .6%)! Quite a shocker!!! =8-(
See: http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html
Posted by: Bornheimer at October 24, 2004 10:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey guys!!!!
Got a real good feelin'!!! Don't ask me why, just got a real gooooooood feelin' about Tuesday night. From what I hear, the early polling in Florida gives us reason to smile! Gonna be real hard to steal this one!! Rejoice, oh young man, in thy youth!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: bigguy at October 24, 2004 11:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think Kerry will win, but he's got to hold 2 oout of three of IA,MN, and WI to assure it. The initial conventional wisdom about this election was that whoever wins 2 of 3 of PA, OH, and FL will win. That will probably prove true, but maybe only if Kerry holds 2 of 3 of IA, MN, and WI. It looks like he's got PA and OH. He should win FL, in reality, but cheating will occur there so who knows how that will go. If he wins PA and OH, he probably would lose the election if Bush takes any two of IA, MN, or WI.
I believe that only IA and WI are real possibilities for Bush and that Kerry is either tied or has a slight lead in both. So, It looks like a real uphill battle for Bush. I'm beginning to practice the "na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye" chant in my spare time! I hope I won't be disappointed by Repub cheating, an October surprise, or a successful desparation hail Mary fear campaign late in the game.
It does appear that they are starting to launch the desparation fear campaign with news stories about the possibility of an election terror attack seeping out. These guys are assholes of the worst kind!
Posted by: Randy at October 24, 2004 11:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Shush....Can you keep a secret?? Are you sure??? Well, if you promise...Word is...the Repub base is staying home...That's what I hear...there are serious rumors that the turnout will NOT be there for Dubya on election day. I am feelin' optimistic...
Posted by: bigguy at October 24, 2004 12:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yeah, we can't say that the republican base is staying home, thats total BS.
We need to make sure our base gets out to vote.
Posted by: J. B. at October 24, 2004 01:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Anybody think the October surprise is the stock market at the LOWEST level this year on Friday? If this trend continues, it underscores the danger of Bush economic policies, which are the same poliucies the French socialists tried, and gave up, in the 1980's -- deficits and a weakened currency.
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 24, 2004 01:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
after watching the sunday talk shows i got the definite feeling that the republicans are very worried.you could see it on their faces . i believe bush may win the popular vote but kerry will take the electoral college.
Posted by: joel at October 24, 2004 01:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Gasoline prices are at record highs, a major negative for Bush. People don't like $2.00+ gas. Also, falling stock market, bad for Bush.
Kerry is going to win this one, barring an October Surprise. I was just reading about a possible military strike against Iran next week to rally the people around the Prez in time of war. Scumbags!
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 24, 2004 01:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don��t even think that Bush is going to win the popular vote...
By the way, have you heard about the second new poll from Hawaii which came out today ?
Bush leads 46% to 45% there.
You can look at it there:
http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/24/news/index2.html
In yesterday's poll it was 43.3% to 42.6%.
http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html
A bit strange, but I still think Kerry will win it easily.
Posted by: Roland Lemberger at October 24, 2004 02:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The graphic accompanying the Hawaii Star-Bulletin article says "The telephone survey by SMS research was taken Oct. 17-30 among 612 Oahu registered voters who are likely to vote in the election."
Someone here pointed that yesterday's Honolulu Advertiser poll was also conducted among Oahu voters only. The person who commented about this said that the other islands are 3-to-1 Democratic.
It seems very fishy to me.
An interesting "sounds significant, but is not really" factoid in the Star-Bulletin: "Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term." This just means they voted for Republicans in the 1972 and 1984 landslides, as well as for Clinton in 1996. Of course the outcomes of those elections were known while the polls were still open in Hawaii, and doesn't that usually suppress the challenger's vote?
Posted by: Jerome Whick at October 24, 2004 03:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Democrat Motto:
Give voters as many opportunities as possible to vote unless it flavors Nader then take it to court block his votes.
Posted by: David at October 24, 2004 03:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yes, that's my motto!
Posted by: Steve at October 24, 2004 03:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
People who want Nader can always write him in. Unfortunatlly there are laws regarding how one must go about getting on the ballot and signatures from Daffy Duck don't cut it.
Posted by: jocko at October 24, 2004 04:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I will never understand what is going through Nader's head. He's done so much good for this country, and is destined to ruin it all if Bush is reelected a week from Tuesday. I think it's fairly obvious that we won't be able to win over his remaining supporters. But luckily for us his support is at best
Posted by: Dale at October 24, 2004 04:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Spent most of yesterday working at Dem HQ in New Mexico. Looks like a large fraction of registered Dems have voted already (we have early voting) and many more have sent in absentee ballots. GOTV going very well. I think NM is in the bag for Kerry. However, there are some polling issues in Bernalillo [machine malfunctions] and the Sec. of State is petitioning the court to be allowed to begin tallying (but not counting) absentee ballots before Nov 2. It's highly likely that the count won't be completed until Wed pm at the earliest.
Posted by: Dave at October 24, 2004 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I also think that Hawaii poll should be discounted. Even if the tiny possibility of Bush winning the state comes true, we will probably know who wins long before they finish casting ballots. At least that's my best wishes; litigation will almost certainly take place to challenge results all over the country.
Posted by: Dale at October 24, 2004 04:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The tracking polls are confusing me. Two are starting to look very good for Kerry (Rasmussen & Washington Post). The other shows Bush gaining support (TIPP). Zogby seems to be holding steady.
TIPP Bush +4
Washington Post Bush +1
Zogby Bush +2
Rasmussen Bush +0.4
Average Bush +1.85
Posted by: DFuller at October 24, 2004 05:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The latest Washington Post Poll puts Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48%. Since the 21st there has been a small shift in this poll--Bush has gone down 2 points and Kerry has gone up 4 points. I'm not sure that's statistically significant, but if this possible trend continues it might be.
I don't watch the Sunday morning talk shows, but I would love to hear more about the "worried Republicans" on those shows--who were they and what did they say or look like?
I'm still worried about a Halloween surprise by the Bush campaign.
Posted by: Ben at October 24, 2004 05:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
it`s to late for an october surprise. if osama showed up a week before the election people wouldn`t buy it, they would think he was stashed away for months. in the case of an attack in iran people wouldn`t stand for another bush war, plus where would we get the manpower.i think any military action outside of iraq would be curtains for bush.
Posted by: jeremy at October 24, 2004 05:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ZOGBY POLLS
where can i see the 10-state zogby polls? it was supposed to be posted today!!!!!
Posted by: Ed at October 24, 2004 08:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush's October surprise may be a major attack on Fallujah. He may assume few will care about Iraqi casualties (which could be in the hundreds). If more than a few Americans are killed, he may think voters will rally around the "War President". If the attack does gain Coalition crontrol of Fallujah with minimal American deaths, then he could say that we are winning the war.
Posted by: DavidOrlando at October 24, 2004 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"Give voters as many opportunities as possible to vote unless it flavors Nader then take it to court block his votes."
_____
Wrong you are. The judge said in one of the cases that he's never in his life seen such a fraudulent attempt to gain access to the ballot. That's what you get when you sell out your soul to the GOP to get on the ballot.
Dale: The national tracking polls are irrelevant. Some of them had Bush up 8 on the eve of the election last year. We all know what happened. The state by state polls are far more important. It's the Electoral Vote that counts. The Popular vote counts for image but that's about it.
Michigan: Bush always listed first Polls with a 3rd number list Nader's total
Rasmussen 23 Oct Kerry up 43-51
Epic/MRA 21 oct Kerry up 43-49-1
SV (gop) 20 oct Kerry up 46-47-1
Susa 20 oct Kerry up 44-51
SV (gop) 20 oct Kerry up 46-48
Mitchell(gop) 19 oct Bush up 47-43
Small sample (sub 400)
Zogby 18 oct Kerry up 46-53-0
Zogby 18 oct Kerry up 46-53
M-D 18 oct Kerry up 46-47
Rasmussen 17 oct Kerry up 45-49
So from one poll (rasmussen) Kerry's gained 2 points in about a week and NONE of them have Bush above 47 in Michigan. Take heart. Kerry will win there. But we still gotta GOTV.
Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin/New Mex/Ohio/Florida all trending Kerry's way. Funny how every state Bush visits lately gives Kerry a bump.
Posted by: Kerrywillwin at October 24, 2004 08:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
reuters has the results and they look very grim. bush is up 5 in ohio and 5 new mexico and 3 in florida
also he has kerry up 4 in colorado.he show`s michigan with a 10 point kerry lead.if the ohio and florida results are true the game is over.i believe he is taking daily tracking polls in the battlegrounds so we will just have to see how the week goes.i`m just not that sure how accurate zogby really is,he really blew the 2002 elections.
Posted by: jeremy at October 24, 2004 08:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
zogby results: (is zogby really bad when it comes to state polling? i know he blew it in 2002!)
Kerry Bush
CO 49 45
FL 46 49
IA 45 47
MI 52 42
MN 46 45
NM 44 49
NV 44 48
OH 42 47
PA 47 45
WI 45 48
Posted by: ed at October 24, 2004 08:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What the hell do we make out of this Zogby polls?
What is this? Bush ahead by 4 in Ohio. Ahead by 3 in Florida? Every body else has Kerry ahead or a dead heat. And then Kerry ahead in Colorado?
Posted by: godfrey at October 24, 2004 08:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
OOPS. My appologies to Race2004.net I see I have permission to use their numbers but only if I also give em a plug.
Race2004.net Plug.
But while I'm posting, I'll do the NM numbers.
I looked at the Hawaii Polls. One is statewide (at least it claims to be) but has refusals and undecideds grouped together (12%) and Bush is at 43% to Kerry's 43%. A Bush at 43 as an incumbant signifies he's toast if the election were held today.
The other claimed it was statewide up top but down below in the stats lists the sample as 612 OAHU voters. Bush is up 45-45 with 9% undecided. Again that's a toast number for Bush, especially when you consider it's Oahu only.
It shows there's work to do out there but Kerry is not in danger of actually losing. It makes great fodder and Spin for Bush. But even they are admitting they're apprehensive nationwide.
New Mex Bush/Kerry/Nader
Zogby 18 oct Kerry leads 44-54-1
Zogby 18 oct Kerry leads 43-53
Arg 18 oct Kerry leads 46-48-1
Arg 18 oct Kerry leads 47=48
M-D 18 oct Bush leads 49-44.
Only polls since early oct.
Given these numbers, New Mex looks good for Kerry. Totally reversed a 3 point defecit in early october
Thanks to Race2004.net
Posted by: Kerrywillwin at October 24, 2004 08:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ZOGBY POLLS
Zogby's battleground daily traking polls historically have been pretty iffy. i remember in 2002 they were almost all wrong! so don't pay too much attention to this battleground polls.
Posted by: Ed at October 24, 2004 08:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ZOGBY POLLS
this is how bad zogby was in the battleground states in 2000, he had california a dead heat!
http://www.zogby.com/features/featuredtables.dbm?ID=30
Posted by: ed at October 24, 2004 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
We have no idea how this election is going to actually shake out in 9 days. The polls are all over the place. Remember in the past, the polls weren't always so accurate. In 2000, Gore was underpolled by 2-3%, which is why the election wound up so close. In 1996, I don't think any pollster was saying Clinton would win Florida, but he won with a few % to spare.
Bottom line, we have no idea who will win based on current polling. Many conflict. One thing that is probable is that Democrats are once again being underpolled, so Kerry is sitting well here if he gets a bump on election day.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 24, 2004 09:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't know why but I'm starting to get really pessimistic. A few days ago I thought that possibly Dem turnout would be super high and repubs might not vote like they usually do since I saw 73% of dems thought this was the most important election of their lifetime vs. 23% of repubs.
Now I'm on the floor with pessimism. Will someone cheer me up?
Posted by: jocko at October 24, 2004 09:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This Hawaii situation is serious. Kerry needs to get some sort of operation out there in the next week or he risks losing the state. Can you imagine a scenario where Kerry loses the election because of Hawaii?
Posted by: Mark at October 24, 2004 09:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This is baloney. Washington Post reported that Kerry/Edwards made a (small) ad buy in Virginia - only $50,000 but 50k buys alot of radio/tv time in the rural parts of the state.
-Fred
Posted by: Fred at October 24, 2004 09:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Why is everybody so confident about Kerry winning Minnesota? He's currently losing here in every poll, and has been on a steady downward plunge since early summer. A nightmare scenario for Kerry would be losing Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, which seems entirely possible. If that happens, Kerry will need to win both Ohio and Florida to win the election.
Posted by: Mark at October 24, 2004 11:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Looking at a lot of these state polls, if you apply the 50% test, Bush seems nowhere near 50% on most of them. Assuming an incumbent needs to poll 49% minimum to win, Kerry looks good in the Battlegrounds. Unless undecideds are conservatives who are uncomfortable with Bush, I think we can bet that moderates will break for Kerry. Bad news from Iraq; $2.00 gas; a plunging stock market -- are these the ehadlines an incumbent wants? DOes anyone belive elections will be held in January? This is a joke. Mother Jones reported we have 2,700 soldiers AWOL and 30% of the last reservist call-up didn't show. I think MN, WI, and IA will do it for us one more time -- but the Dems better get their act together if we want to hold on to the battlegorund into the future, I admit.
Take heart, and volunteer for GOTV!
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 24, 2004 11:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New poll in Arkansas by Opinion Research has both candidates at 48%. This same poll gave Bush a 9 percentage point lead a couple of weeks ago.
FWIW, I don't buy the HI results and I doubt Bush leads by 6 in NM. Although NM was the closest state in 2000, and Kerry could lose it, I don't think he will.
Posted by: rob at October 25, 2004 12:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
By the way; the Opinion Research poll in Arkansas was paid for by a conservative news organization which backs Bush strongly.
Posted by: rob at October 25, 2004 12:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Minnesota -
personally I am confident that Kerry will win Minnesota because Strategic Vision has the state tied. Given their overt Republican bias, that tell me Kerry is ahead by at least 3 points in the state. Zogby shows him ahead. Mason-Dixon shows Bush with a 2-point lead, but they lean Republican and even so they only have him at 47%. I'm not saying Minnesota is in the bag, so if you are looking for reason to worry it's there. But Kerry's position is stronger than Bush's.
Posted by: kariq at October 25, 2004 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here's a link to the Arkansas poll:
Women, independents help Kerry erase 9-point deficit
Posted by: rob at October 25, 2004 01:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
kariq, I certainly hope you're right, but living here in Minnesota I confess to having a bad feeling this past week...even though I'm far removed from the suburban sprawl zone driving Minnesota so rapidly to the Republican column. If I'm not mistaken, the Strategic Vision poll is 10 days old. The polls since then by Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and Zogby have indicated a considerable rightward shift. I haven't seen a poll showing Kerry with a comfortable lead for a good three weeks.
Posted by: Mark at October 25, 2004 01:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Marry Meet,
Living in Cincinnati has shown me just how petty both parties can be.I feel I've helped by getting 5 of my friemds and family members to convert from non voters & register.Chimes are ringing,the winds of change are among us.I truely hope for the best interest of this nation to unfold within the next week.
Live in Light & Brightest Blessings
Posted by: Tye Dye at October 25, 2004 03:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Again from Race2004.net:
Bush has NEVER been higher than 48% in any Minnesota poll listed on this site. Not once. Meanwhile, even GOP pollsters show Kerry ahead (the poll is 5 days old, not 10), while Zogby gives him a healthy margin of victory.
Mark, take a look at the website. Kerry wins MN.
I can't understand why this thread is so pessimistic. Kerry is in great shape--just check David's Florida numbers. Hawaii is a joke and NM a longshot. IA and WI are cause for concern, but odds are still well on our side, folks!
Posted by: JoshR at October 25, 2004 04:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Actually, Mark -- Kerry has been behind in MN in only one poll, the Mason-Dixon poll. This state is by no means a lockup, but its still a slight advantage for Kerry.
Ohio -- practically all other polls (even Mason Dixon) show Kerry with a very slim lead. I think Zogby is off here.
FL -- The difference is actually 2.1 points for Bush, a slight lead. Still reachable (FL was always going to be a tough nut, given the free photo ops Bush got handing ice out).
CO -- I actually believe Zogby is off here, Bush probably has a lead in this state.
IA, NM: Bush probably has slight leads.
PA: Kerry has a slight lead.
WI: Very marginal lead for Bush.
A separate Zogby Maine poll has Kerry up by 10.
NJ: Seems to be back in the Kerry camp.
HI: I'm mildly concerned, but glad these polls came out. The Kerry camp has dispatched a few operatives from the left coast there. I wonder if Hawaiians missed most of the debates because of the time differences. Also, the economy in Hawai may be doing OK (now that the Asian flu is over). Still, an 18 point Gore lead is extremely hard for Bush to erase. Hawai has a Republican Governor, but thats a liberal Republican. And I wonder if the terrorist thread resonates as much in HI as it does on the mainland. I think Kerry by the high single digits.
POlitical partisans unfortunately tend to suffer from BPD, going into deep depression or elation at each new poll or event. Its important to put everything in perspective, both good and bad. Utimately, its going to be the ground game that matters. A lead of upto 3% points (either way) can be erased by something as simple as weather.
Posted by: erg at October 25, 2004 07:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Also -- new poll in NH showing Kerry by 8-9 (seems high to me, but indicative of a lead in any case).
Incidentally, Bush seems to have scaled down apppearances in OH. It may be that his internal polls have shown him probably losing, so he's trying to focus on WI, Iowa, NM.
Also, Al Gore was in FL yesterday. Even a sight of Al Gore in FL is likely to drive up Dem turnout in FL. All we need other than that are a few pictures of Cruella De Ville.
I'm just going to my local county office to pick up an NJ absentee ballot, which I will submit immediatedly, so I can volunteer on election day for Dems. I urge others to do likewise in states which allow it.
Posted by: erg at October 25, 2004 08:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The polls are making things as clear as mud. I am amazed at how many people are influenced by them to think they spell success or doom for Kerry. In one form or another, everyone here is basically cherry picking the polls they want to confirm their own feelings of optimisim or pessimism. I quit the polls several days ago, because they became too unreliable for me. One has a state in the bag and outside the margin of error, and another shows the opposite. Then you have to start rationalizing why you accept this poll but not that poll.when it goes against what you want to hear. These final days before the election are going to play out like some dark comedy, I suspect.
Posted by: pepe at October 25, 2004 08:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe, I agree, forget about the polls. They are conflicting anyway. Noone knows how this election will shake out next week. It's going to come down to the get out the vote effort, and the motivation of certain types of voters to actually show up at the polls.
I think it can be safely assumed that states like HI and CO will vote how they have historically voted, despite close polling. When push comes to shove, states usually fall into their tradtional voting patterns.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 25, 2004 09:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As of today, there is no telling who is going to win in a week. I was a little disheartened yesterday when Zogby had a polling day of 50% Bush, 43% Kerry. I then starting thinking: Zogby only polls about 400 people per day. 7% means 28 more people said Bush than Kerry. If only 14 of those who said Bush said Kerry, then it would have been tied. Why should I worry about 14 people?
Sunday must have been a better polling day than Saturday or Friday. Bush won by 3% and 7% on Friday and Saturday. Since Bush is up only three points in today���s Zogby. I do not trust Sunday polling though. All the fundamentalists are in church on Sunday night.
I am beginning to think Kerry might have pull a trifecta FL, OH, & PA to win the election. Here is my current evaluation:
Strong Kerry: 207
Barely Kerry: 25 (PA, NH)
Tied: 67 (FL, MN, OH, WI)
Barely Bush: 17 (IA, NV, NM)
Weak Bush: 48 (AR, CO, NC, VA, WV)
Strong Bush 174
Totals: Bush 239, Kerry 232, Even 67
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 09:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I see Kerry winning PA and NH rather easily, 5% or more. They're northeastern states, and polling looks good for Kerry in both states.
Kerry might even win OH. I thought FL was a better shot for the Dems than OH, but polling says Kerry is competitive in OH and less so in FL. I still think demogaphics and other factors favor Kerry in FL and he might just pull out a win there.
MN, WI, and IA could go either way.
I think Kerry wins NM. The polls generally favor him there, and with a Democratic Governor, the get out the vote effort will be better than 2000. Kerry wins.
AR is possible, but a long shot. If Clinton can get Democrats excitied about voting, Kerry might win AR.
The rest are conservative leaning states, and will probably wind up voting for Bush in the end.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 25, 2004 09:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree Kerry has NM, and I disagree with Zogby - as much as I would like to see Kerry up by 4% here in CO, I don't believe it. I still think there's a chance we'll pull the state off - I'm part of GOTV here - but it's not going to be 4% if it happens.
Posted by: Ilana at October 25, 2004 10:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New Mexico will be close. I say it leans Bush because 3 out of 4 polls give Bush a slight lead.
ARG Kerry +2
Zogby Bush +5.3
Mason Dixon Bush +5
Gallup Bush +3
I do think Kerry still has a decent shot at NM. NM is a state that Kerry should have been able to win easily. I am surprised to see him slightly behind in the polls here this late in the game.
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 11:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm not overly worried about New Mexico. NOBODY expected Gore to win there in 2000, but he did, primarily based on Hispanic and Native American support....and I don't see the Hispanic or Native American influence diminishing four years later.
I'm more worried about the Upper Midwest right now. Things are going very badly here, if the polls are to be believed. We may very well need both Ohio and Florida in the Kerry column if we lose two Upper Midwest states, or God forbid all three.
Posted by: Mark at October 25, 2004 11:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If Gore would have won NH, NM would have been as crazy as FL was in 2000. It was just as crazy as FL, but a lot less publicity. Republican votes kept appearing out of thin air in NM. Bush actually had lead for a couple of hours in NM during their crazy recount. The finally tally had Kerry winning by only 366 votes.
The funny thing about NM is registered Democrats cross party lines and vote Republican a lot. In 2000, 52% or registered voters were Democrats and only 33% Republicans. Gore only won by a handful of votes.
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 11:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
These national polls are getting crazy:
Rasmussen Kerry +2 (-.4) (Kerry first Rasmussen lead since Aug 23)
Zogby Bush +3 (+1)
TIPP Bush +8 (+4)
Rasmussen shows a surge in Kerry but TIPP shows a surge for Bush. I have more faith in Rasmussen since they poll 1,000 people per day. TIPP polls only around 250 people a day. TIPP badly overstated Bush in 2000 also.
TIPP polls in 2000:
Nov 6: Bush +1.9
Nov 5: Bush +6.1
Nov 4: Bush +8.8
Nov 3: Bush +7.5
Nov 2: Bush +4.9
Nov 1: Bush +5.6
Oct 31: Bush +4.0
Oct 30: Bush +9.1
Oct 29: Bush +5.8
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 12:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It is clear all of us are pretty well informed and use good analytical skills when making arguments. It's for that reason that I love this board and look forward to seeing replys from familiar names.
That being said, its also clear that memories of 2000, four years of Bush mismanagement, and a year of obsessively following every bit of data we can get our hands on has taken a toll. I think I am being very fair when I say we are running more than half on emotion now, and the basis of most of our arguments is now coming from the heart than from the mind. How else can I explain how a forum of rational people like us is going from valleys of despair to peaks of ecstacy over changes of a point or two in Ohio?
Like Pepe, I am more or less giving up on the polls right now. Quite honestly, I must also admit that my perspectives in these last few days are coming more from a gut feeling than from a nuanced point of view.
So I admit I can't give you any new "hard data" (as if there is any of that now!). But some of you asked for some optimism; something to cheer you up. So here you go:
I honestly beleive right now that Kerry will win. I don't know by how much. I don't which states will turn blue and which we will keep from turning red. I am tired, I am anxious, and I am traditionally a pessimist. But I just feel good right now about our chances. I'm not giving a guarantee, but I am offering sincere reassurance.
My advice is to try to keep your spirits up in the next week. Don't let every number send you into a tail spin. Trust me, the anxiety shows in all our arguments, no matter how hard we're trying to stay objective.
Keep the faith, relax with a couple beer, get some sleep, and think about who you want on the Kerry cabinet.
Posted by: Ken at October 25, 2004 12:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Quite honestly, I must also admit that my perspectives in these last few days are coming more from a gut feeling than from a nuanced point of view.
Amen, Ken! Really, the polls are meaningless at this point. The election is too close in too many key states to make heads or tales of it. I hope more folks here take your sound advice and just give the polls a rest. Right now, everybody--and I mean everybody--is simply going with their gut feelings on who will win. By the way, for some reason, Ken, my gut feeling tells me that Kerry will somehow reach 270 EVs. Like you, I don't know how or in which states, but I just like his chances, and I'm hoping for the best.
We'll soon know officially who the next president will be--at least I hope so, assuming we don't have contested results in several states. That could be a real possibility, and it will be disaterous for the nation and the next president if we have yet another election whose legitmacy is seriously questioned.
Posted by: pepe at October 25, 2004 12:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I know we're dissing da poles, but Ramussen actually has Kerry in the lead by 2% in today's daily tracking polls, first time I've ever seen Ramussen give Kerry the lead.
Monday October 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 25, 2004 12:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'd like to thank you all for a very entertaining read. I'd particularly like to thank whomever made the following statements:
"I do fear that if it's really close the Republicans will try to steal the election again."
"I'm still worried about an October surprise on the lines of Osama capture, a new terror "threat" raising the alert level, or something else."
"It does appear that they are starting to launch the desparation fear campaign with news stories about the possibility of an election terror attack seeping out. These guys are assholes of the worst kind!"
"From what I hear, the early polling in Florida gives us reason to smile! Gonna be real hard to steal this one!! Rejoice, oh young man, in thy youth!!!!!!!!!!"
"Shush....Can you keep a secret?? Are you sure??? Well, if you promise...Word is...the Repub base is staying home...That's what I hear...there are serious rumors that the turnout will NOT be there for Dubya on election day. I am feelin' optimistic..."
"I'm still worried about a Halloween surprise by the Bush campaign."
Try to think a little more critically people. You've fallen prey to grade school level democratic manipulation, and you take things way too personally. It's time to get over the 2000 election children. It's time. I bet you people also really believe that there will be a draft if Bush wins re-election. I pity you.
For those of you that have been unknowingly hoodwinked by entertainers like James Carville and Paul Begala, let not your hearts be troubled. Help is on the way. In the meantime, the following website should teach you a few things about the issues that Kerry and Bush stand for, so that you can make a clear-headed, intelligent decision on election day (for either Bush or Kerry), rather than casting your vote in favor of biased campaign rhetoric that you have fallen prey to.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/fc3/yahooligans/usgovernment (don't worry, this website is for kids and will not be difficult for you to follow).
Posted by: Voter at October 25, 2004 12:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
One thing to note is that as election day approaches, we'll see a blizzard of polls released, some by partisan groups and others. Ignore them, keep reemmbering the only poll that counts is Novemember 2.
I voted today in NJ via absentee ballot. There seemed to be a lot of walk-in absentee ballot deposits (of course they can be mailed in too) -- in a county that went 3 to 1 for GOre in 2000.
Posted by: erg at October 25, 2004 01:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
While Voter's disparaging tone is not helpful, he makes a good point. There's no reason to abandon critical thinking for "gut feelings." National polls are not very informative at this time, but state polls still provide a good picture of the race if they are interpreted correctly. I've come to rely heavily on race2004.net for my fix.
Here's an example: The only pollsters recently showing Bush above 48% in Wisconsin are Gallup and Strategic Vision, which both lean strong Republican. The only other reputable poll, Zogby, has shown big Kerry leads, with the exception of the latest, which is well within the MOE. Other polls have mixed results but Bush only once cracks 48%. This means Kerry is in good shape in WI. See my post upthread on MN for similar analysis.
It's really pretty simple, guys.
Posted by: JoshR at October 25, 2004 01:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Elections for "coin flip" states:
I have generated a random number generator in Excel. I assigned a 50% shot of A and 50% shot of B. I "sampled" the random number generator with 600 "voters" ten times. Over ten calculations, these are my results:
Simulation 1: 50%, 50%
Simulation 2: 48%, 52%
Simulation 3: 46%, 54%
Simulation 4: 50%, 50%
Simulation 5: 49%, 51%
Simulation 6: 55%, 45%
Simulation 7: 47%, 53%
Simulation 8: 50%, 50%
Simulation 9: 49%, 51%
Simulation 10: 47%, 53%
This shows you why a 600 people sample really tells you nothing in a coin flip election. You would have 10 polls. Three would be accurate; one would show a 10% lead for A; one would show an 8% lead for B. The other five would be extremely close but all leaning towards B.
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 01:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A dose of reality in the coin-flip post... Nice work. Looks like we all need something else to read to take our minds off this thing.
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 25, 2004 01:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The coin toss pretty much sums up what's going on with this election. Who knows which way the cookie will crumble?!?
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 25, 2004 02:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The coin toss pretty much sums up what's going on with this election. Who knows which way the cookie will crumble?
Answer: Nobody--yet we all have a 50/50 chance of being right--or wrong.
Posted by: pepe at October 25, 2004 02:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe and All,
This race is a tossup by all measures. Just go to sleep for a week and wake up next Wendesday to see who is President. We're not going to know for sure until the election is actually held.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 25, 2004 02:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Of course, the only way to win the coin tosses in to participate in them. That is why we need the GOTV efforts over the next week. The more Democrats that vote between now and next Tuesday, the more likely Senator Kerry will win. Hopefully, President Clinton will be rallying near early voting places when he is in Florida tomorrow. In my opinion, we need to rally the troops and take them directly to the polls after the rally. Intending to vote for Senator Kerry shows up in the polls, but it does not show up on the official records.
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock_nj,
The Republicans want us to go to sleep until next Wednesday. What we need to do in the next week is:
1) Make sure your Democratic friends get to the polls.
2) Help your undecided friends decide that Kerry is the man to vote them. Then, you get them to the polls.
3) Pull the spark plugs out of your Republican friends��� cars next Monday night so they can���t get to the polls next Tuesday. You can put them back into their cars on Tuesday nigh. (Just kidding, but friends don���t let friends vote Republican.)
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 04:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
General comment here...
Has anyone seen polling data that splits up the undecideds between Bush/Kerry undecideds and Kerry/Nader undecideds? I met with a friend over the weekend who was really struggling with the Nader thing. He feels the best way for third party guys to get attention is if they get votes when it really matters.
My feel is 'screw the guy' but there may be some more relatively easy votes to get if someone can come up with a rationale for the Kerry/Nader undecideds to stick with Kerry. (Obviously, the things that have been tried to date haven't worked.)
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 25, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
View the media critically and be informed of the issues. Thanks "Voter", those two things never occured to me. And you're right, just because masses were disenfranchised in 2000, and little has been to prevent that from recurring is no reason to be worried. Man, I really do take my civil liberties too personally. I've been selfishly treating violations of my legal entitlement as a crime.
Posted by: Ken at October 25, 2004 05:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey JoshR
It wasn't the methodology of long term poll comparisons I was being critical of.
I was suggesting that people are becoming very moody over every release of every pollster. I know we agree that a single, individual poll means next to nothing. And yet people's reactions are becoming very volatile about every such release. And this is showing up in some of the arguments we make which we think we are being objective about.
I was also suggesting that we maintain optimism because ultimately we will not know who wins until the votes are counted. If you are good at and enjoy analyzing polls, and you seem to be, than I say go for it. But (and please DO NOT take this as criticism, because it is meant as a point to consider, not a definative statement) do you really think you are getting any closer to a reliable prediction based on your analysis?
Ultimately, I think my "gut feeling" is probably just as reliable at this point. (If I'm wrong you have a bright, bright future in polling and/or marketing!)
That being said, I don't think this is a time to be passive either. As DFuller says, GOTV!!!!
I'm sticking to my stategy of taking a break from stats myself. It is doing me no good, and I can channel my energy elsewhere. So JoshR, I respect and enjoy your projections, but I don't think my doing the same is the best way for me to be productive in this cause. And my efforts to do so are probably not giving me a clearer indication of what will happen Nov 2 than what I get from my guts
Posted by: Ken at October 25, 2004 05:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller, Good advice! We need to get people fired up to vote Democratic!
I guess I should say ignore the polls, because they're conflicting and all over the place. Although, it's kind of nice to see some good numbers for Kerry today. Rammussen puts Kerry up 2% today.
Help Is On The Way!
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 25, 2004 06:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just finished watching Mattews on "Whiffleball". Good interview with Kerry. But here's the big question: with all due respect to the menatlly-ill, is Chris Matthews schizo?? I mean, seriously, Matthews and the gang sounded like they were writing the Bush-Cheney post-mortem report!! I think something is afoot in terms of some of these polls beginning to show something significant. I believe the Bush numbers, with just a week to go, have crystallized at somewhere between 46-47%. And I think astute political observers are aware that this thing is going to break Kerry's way big-time over the next 72 hours. I will re-assert my earlier contention: Champagne will be the drink of choice on Nov. 2 among Democrats, and Republicans will be indulging in the sour-mash from Tennessee.
Posted by: bigguy at October 25, 2004 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I will admit: I am a poll watcher. This afternoon's polls did look encouraging.
Bad poll today: TIPP Bush +7
Neutral poll today: Zogby +3 (because Zogby showed Bush +3 Friday only & Bush +10 Saturday only. Sunday had to good for Kerry)
Gallup: Bush +5 (because Bush was up 8 in last poll)
Good polls today: Rasmussen Kerry +2 (First lead since August)
Washington Post: Kerry +1 (First lead)
LATimes: Kerry +1 (Last poll was Bush up 5)
Posted by: DFuller at October 25, 2004 11:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Thanks for the civil response, Ken.
Here's my beef: The stated goal of this site is to analyze Kerry's chances in the swing states. Now quite a few people seem to be saying that this goal is impossible to meet. I ask those people--why you are posting here? All of your comments boil down to "Polls don't matter, nobody knows anything, all pollsters (and posters) are equally ignorant." These statements are useless drags on the discussion.
Everyone agrees that the polls have major problems. I personally think that Kerry's chances are substantially better than the polls indicate. My own gut confirms this. But analyzing the polls is still fun (at least for me), and it just might be informative, if for no other reason than to determine who (if anyone) has it right, and how to correctly interpret the data in the future. But for me it's mainly fun, and the constant stream of anti-intellectual comments is starting to ruin the party!
Finally, it's amazing that this theme is gaining ascendancy on an ostensibly leftist blog at a time when Kerry's numbers actually look quite good. You all are entitled to voice your opinions, but this strain of comments is somewhat defeatist in that it dismisses good news as unimportant, rather than celebrating it, even with a grain of salt.
Posted by: JoshR at October 26, 2004 12:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Question about Iowa.
As I'm sure most of us are acutely aware, Iowa has heavily promoted early absentee voting this election cycle. Registered Democrats seeking absentee ballots overwhelmed registered Republicans by a 3-1 margin. With that in mind, do any of you believe this is influencing the stunning poll turnaround in Iowa towards George Bush? When pollsters call likely or registered voters and contact one of the tens of thousands of Iowans who have already voted, do they include them as "likely voters" in the poll or do they simply move on to the next caller who has yet to vote (and is thus more likely to be a Republican)? For the life of me, I can't understand how Iowa could go in the Bush column this year...and I wonder if the unusual numbers of Democrats who have already voted in influencing polls there. Any thoughts?
Posted by: Mark at October 26, 2004 01:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Out of those, I see 6 states still in play:
Gore states:
Iowa
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Bush states:
Florida
Ohio
Nevada
With Arkansas and Colorado as loose-end possibilities.
Posted by: willt at October 26, 2004 08:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As far as I'm concerned, Kerry supporters should be very concerned JoshR. At this time in history, you can't just assume that undecideds will break for the challenger. Check out the latest Reuters/Zogby release:
"President George W. Bush holds a slim 3-point lead over Democratic rival John Kerry one week before the Nov. 2 presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Bush led Kerry 49 percent to 46 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, maintaining a stable lead on the Massachusetts senator as the White House rivals head down the stretch. Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent the day before.
With the campaign winding down, the poll added voters leaning toward either Bush or Kerry into their totals for the first time. That left only about 3 percent of likely voters undecided.
'If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to undecideds, look again -- there may not be enough left,' pollster John Zogby said."
And Zogby's poll numbers are weighted, 39% Dem 35% Rep, 26% Ind.
Posted by: Mr. New Jersey at October 26, 2004 10:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby said that Bush had a great day on Saturday. Tomorrow, that day will drop off and we'll see how well the 2 are doing.
Posted by: erg at October 26, 2004 10:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby's Saturday poll:
"Another good single day of polling for President Bush. In today���s sample alone, he leads 50% to 43%���the first time we���ve seen either candidate hit 50%. Each candidate continues to tighten his own constituency, and Undecided voters are now at only 4%."
My guess is that Kerry will pick up a couple points in tomorrow's Zogby poll. Kerry will either be down 1% or even. If Bush lead by 7% on Saturday, then the other two days must have been break even or very slightly Kerry if Bush only lead by 2% for the three-day average.
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 10:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Doesn't anyone have an answer regarding my question about where Iowa's mostly Democratic early voters are being omitted from the polls?
Posted by: Mark at October 26, 2004 11:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mark,
My understanding is that one of the questions they ask you is if you have already voted. If you already voted you are automatically considered a likely voter. If not, they ask you the likely voter questions to decide if they think you are a likely voter.
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 11:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The NRO corner suggests that the GOP may have given up on PA. Given that practically every poll (even Mason Dixon) showed a Kerry lead from 1-6 % in PA, and given Clinton's visit in Philly, I think the state is leaning Kerry at this point, although it all boils down to turnout.
So -- OH, OH, OH. Add in NH to guard against a WI or IA + NM defection. At some point in the enxt week, Kerry may also need to stop making trips out west. Wa and OR look good. NV looks slightly, tantalizingly out of reach. AR and CO look very hard. NM is in play, but a trip out west for 4 votes may not be worth it. Wisconsin, Iowa, MN, FL, OH (possibly little NH) may be the keys. Wisconsin has trended right to centre in recent years, but its still hard for me to see the state going to Bush. Ditto for MN.
Posted by: erg at October 26, 2004 12:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry has wisely resumed advertising in Hawaii, Michigan and West Virginia for the final week. The report I read made it unclear whether he had resumed ads in Arkansas or not, but he'd be a fool not to.
Beyond that, here's my take on the course Kerry should chart in the last six campaign days....
Arkansas--leave it to Slick. Kerry may actually do best for himself by NOT being seen there if Clinton does the heavy lifting for him.
Colorado--unless Kerry gets some national momentum, I'd forget about heading here again.
Florida--seems like he has a good operation here, but he needs to visit at least four more times. Now that the Orlando Sentinel has endorsed Kerry, Orlando would be a wise destination to seize on the local acclaim.
Iowa--Kerry needs at least three more visits here. He's in Sioux City today, which seems like a waste of time given northwest Iowa's Republican tilt (unless of course their inside polls say something I don't know). Kerry needs to hit Des Moines, Davenport, Dubuque and Mason City like there's no tomorrow.
Michigan--at least one more visit to rally the blacks in Detroit or Flint would be wise.
Minnesota--A trip to Moorhead would be helpful to seize upon the sugar beet issue in the Red River Valley. Mankato is a swing area that could be bountiful. A visit to a swing second-ring suburb like Coon Rapids or Cottage Grove would be Kerry's wisest course of action here. This is where I fear Kerry is losing Gore voters in Minnesota, but where there are likely to be the most persuadables.
Nevada--I'd hit Vegas at least one more time after today...and I hope they have a targeted negative ad hitting the Yucca Mountain issue head-on planned for this week.
New Hampshire--unless another poll shows Kerry's lead evaporating, I'd forget about NH at this point.
New Mexico--a trip to Santa Fe would really help rally the base beyond the Albuquerque jaunt today.
Ohio--Cleveland, Columbus, Canton, Toledo, Steubenville, Springfield...as many swing or base towns as he can squeeze in, the better.
Pennsylvania--If polls shows a post-Bubba bounce, we can probably rest on our laurels in PA. If not, another trip to a place like Wilkes-Barre, Erie or Allentown may be helpful.
West Virginia--I don't think I'd visit here again, unless it breaks into a dead heat in final polling, in which case I may think about a visit to Charleston or Wheeling (which would also hit the Ohio market). Ultimately, I'm just glad Kerry resumed advertising here as it may be a better prospect that I had thought for months.
Wisconsin--La Crosse, Eau Claire and Madison are probably Kerry's best destinations. GOre won WI in 2000 based on his solid numbers in southwest Wisconsin. I'm not sure if that advantage is as strong this time. We need it to get there.
Wyoming--Kerry should dart around this state and hit every possible market because I firmly believe he can still pick up WY's three electoral votes. Casper, Cheyenne, Laramie, Hot Springs, Jackson Hole, Sheridan, Gillette, Cody...hit them all....and abandon plans for other visits if need be. We can't let Bush take Wyoming from us. :)
Posted by: Mark at October 26, 2004 12:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
In case anyone isn't already aware, the latest ARG polls show Kerry pulling off the hat trick in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Let's just hope Arnold doesn't reverse Kerry's OH momentum. WHere in the state will he campaigning?
Posted by: Mark at October 26, 2004 01:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My early prediction:
Popular vote:
Kerry 49.4, Bush 48.9, Nadar .5, other .2
Kerry states:
>5% wins: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA 207 EV���s
2-5% wins: PA, NH 25 EV���s
Total Kerry = 289
Bush states:
>5% wins: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY = 163 EV���s
2-5% Wins: AR, CO, MO, NC, VA, WV 59 EV���s
Total Bush = 249
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 02:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Popular vote (corrected):
Kerry 49.9, Bush 49.4, Nadar .5, other .2
Posted by: DFuller at October 26, 2004 02:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My predictions...
Popular vote--Kerry 48.8%, Bush 48.4%, Nader 0.8%, Others combined--2%
Alabama--Bush by 17
Alaska--Bush by 25
Arizona--Bush by 3
Arkansas--Bush by 2
California--Kerry by 11
Colorado--Bush by 3
Connecticut--Kerry by 10
Delaware--Kerry by 7
District of Columbia--Kerry by 76
Florida--Bush by 2
Georgia--Bush by 15
Hawaii--Kerry by 5
Idaho--Bush by 38
Illinois--Kerry by 10
Indiana--Bush by 13
Iowa--Kerry by 1
Kansas--Bush by 18
Kentucky--Bush by 18
Louisiana--Bush by 9
Maine--Kerry by 6
Maryland--Kerry by 12
Massachusetts--Kerry by 34
Michigan--Kerry by 6
Minnesota--Kerry by 2
Mississippi--Bush by 18
Missouri--Bush by 6
Montana--Bush by 18
Nebraska--Bush by 31
Nevada--Kerry by 1
New Hampshire--Kerry by 4
New Jersey--Kerry by 8
New Mexico--Kerry by 2
New York--Kerry by 21
North Carolina--Bush by 7
North Dakota--Bush by 15
Ohio--Kerry by 2
Oklahoma--Bush by 27
Oregon--Kerry by 5
Pennsylvania--Kerry by 5
Rhode Island--Kerry by 31
South Carolina--Bush by 12
South Dakota--Bush by 13
Tennessee--Bush by 8
Texas--Bush by 18
Utah--Bush by 40
Vermont--Kerry by 11
Virginia--Bush by 5
Washington--Kerry by 8
West Virginia--Bush by 3
Wisconsin--Kerry by 1
Wyoming--Bush by 38
Posted by: Mark at October 26, 2004 02:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Don't forget about that margin of error Mark. It's actually a dead heat. Check back to DFuller's coin flip post. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves here.
Posted by: John D at October 26, 2004 02:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment