« General Election Cattle Call, October 19 | Main | Open Thread »
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
U. Cincy's New Ohio Poll: Whoa!
Posted by DavidNYCAround a month ago, the University of Cincinnati conducted a poll which showed George Dubya Bush with a whopping eleven-point lead. Yes, it was not long after the Republican convention, but the prior "Ohio Poll" (as they call it) in August had shown Kerry with a two-point lead. Well, look who's back on top (PDF) (likely voters, mid-September in parens):
Kerry: 48 (43)
Bush: 46 (54)
Other/Undecided: 6 (3)
(MoE: 3.6%)
I'm less interested in the actual horserace numbers than I am the swing - that's 13 points in our boy JFK's direction in just a month. Either September was a serious outlier (though I don't think anyone convincingly argued that at the time), or we've got some big mo'.
We've done well shoring up our base: 88% of Dems are voting for Kerry (compared with 90% of Republicans for Bush) - and the independents are firmly in our camp, by a 55-26 margin (small subset, however, so bigger MoE). Favorability was not asked.
With the exception of a couple of GOP-conducted polls, Bush has not gone above 49% in the month of October. Anyone who has come to appreciate the 50% rule knows that this is dangerous territory for Bush. In fact, it's even worse than that: Between the previous U. Cincy poll (the one I mentioned above which showed Bush at 54-43) and now, only one non-partisan poll, done by the Columbus Dispatch, had Bush at 50+%.
This is going to be a major nailbiter. And I think right now, the polling - not just this one poll, but all of them in aggregate - is slightly in Kerry's favor.
(Thanks to reader HypoSpeaks.)
Posted at 01:15 PM in Ohio | Technorati
Comments
Ha! I was just coming here to post this but you've already got it. Kerry seems to be doing well with men in Ohio if you read the poll. If blacks get out to vote this election I don't see any way that Kerry can lose. Remember blacks didn't show much support for Gore until the weekend before the election. Hopefully their anger at Bush will drive them out is nothing else. This is truly good news.
Posted by: Jocko at October 19, 2004 01:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rasmussen has is 47-47 in Ohio now, for the first time a lead for Kerry; with leaners 49-48. Rasmussen has Florida tied too at 47-47; with leaners Bush leads 49-47.
Posted by: John at October 19, 2004 05:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Some good news from Washington too. At least 314,000 new registered voters. The following Seattle P-I headline story reports: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/195860_vote19.html.
The interesting bit is a table of voting registration change by county. Don't get confused by the way they set it up. The big story is in the urban counties: the 4 democratic-leaning counties of King (Seattle), Pierce (Tacoma), Thurston (Olympia) and Clark (WA suburbs of Portland) added a whopping 190,000 voters compared to 107,000 new voters in 2000. Overall those counties may vote Kerry by a 2 to 1 or more ratio.
In comparison, the largest conservative eastern WA county of Spokane barely increased registration: 26,500 new voters vs. 23,500 new voters in 2000 (data from the second conservative urban center, the Tri-cities, is missing).
I'd say WA is turning solid blue, with the governor and congressional candidates likely riding Kerry's coat-tails to victory.
Posted by: Assaf Oron at October 19, 2004 06:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ABC News is in OH today and tomorrow and they're opening about the race there clearly echoes my fears: that a tight race in the Buckeye State could ultimately be tilted to Bush by the gay marriage amendment that will also be on the ballot. This is the type of thing that polls do not and cannot reflect. We all know that the GOP in OH deliberately put this amendment on the ballot as a way of giving Bush an edge. You might say this edge is insigificant, but in OH, every little edge is significant.
Posted by: pepe at October 19, 2004 06:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ABC also gives a good Kerry poll for OH Kerry ahead by 3.
Fox says Bush by 5 in OH, but Fox's pollster is not good in state polls.
So if we go into the election with OH and FL as true tossups, thats great. Kerry just has to win one to take the election. PA is still a battle, but I believe Kerry has a discernible advantage there. So get OH or FL, get NH and Kerry can afford to give up Wisconsin or Iowa (but not both).
And WV has not been polled after the debates at all other than by Zogby Interactive.
Posted by: erg at October 19, 2004 07:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Assaf, I agree Washington will be a Kerry state barring a last-minute meltdown, but a couple of your figures are incorrect. King County is the only WA county where a 2-1 margin for Kerry is likely. Pierce and Thurston Counties are probably gonna go Kerry by about a 10-point margin, at least if recent history is any indicator, while Clark County is likely to go Bush. Clark County has basically become exurban Portland, and has been inundated with new Republicans in previous years.
As for Ohio, the new ABC Poll shows Kerry up by three points with only 4% of voters citing the gay marriage issue as a primary concern. It would surprise me if it tipped the race to Bush. What terrifies me at this point is the rospect of virtually every undecided voter going to Bush based on fear of terrorism and/or reluctance to go through another post-election power struggle s is incessantly debated by the media in the last couple days.
Posted by: Mark at October 19, 2004 07:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
2 more polls from NJ.
Rutgers has Kerry by 13
Quiniipiac has Kerry by 4.
Q* was generally a little tough on Kerry and this is actually an improvement from a month ago. Rutgers poll is great for Kerry, of course.
I know Kerry has NO time to spare, but a visit by him to NJ could be useful. Just a few hours from a PA trip.
Incidentally, I received a solicitation from the NJ Democratic Party asking me to donate money to their GOTV campaign (also mentioning Kerry). I would certainly like to contribute $$ to help out Kerry, but I really don't trust the NJ Democratic Party to use the money wisely. Where else could such money be donated ? ACT ?
Posted by: erg at October 19, 2004 07:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby interactive has a couple states switch to bush but all within MOE. It also takes into account the weird 2 day aniomaly that zogby had in their polls.
Anyone have a membership and can get ahold of VA or CO zogby poll?
Posted by: Dman at October 19, 2004 07:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
sorry here is the link
Posted by: Dman at October 19, 2004 07:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ok lets try this
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html
Posted by: Dman at October 19, 2004 07:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby Interactive should be ignored completely. I paid no attention to them when kerry was doing well, and still don't.
Their methodology is flawed.
Posted by: erg at October 19, 2004 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Erg, I hope so they Have Bush up in Florida and Ohio. I cant figure it out guys. DO any of you out there think that either of the canidates get any sleep? This race is so damn close guys. I think the get-out thevote effort will pay off at the end for Kerry.
Posted by: godfrey at October 19, 2004 09:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nice and biased election coverage on Scarborough on MSNBCThey used one poll that showed a tie in NJ, one poll in the "battleground" state of GA with a lead for Bush, Rasmussen in MN (even) and FL (Bush +3), and a poll in CO with Bush up 5.They were trying to get you to think that Bush had an advantage in the battleground states.
1) Has anyone seen a recent NJ poll with the two tied?
2) Kerry is ahead in every MN poll except Rasmussen.
3) GA is as much a battleground state as TX.
4) CO is a battleground state, but not a main one.
5) FL has polls going both ways. Why show the one with Bush ahead?
The basic theme of Scarborough today was to try to get Democrats to think the race is over.
Posted by: DFuller at October 19, 2004 10:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A new subject, but I jsut went to http://boycottsbg.com/ to let companies I shop with know I want them to pull ads from Sinclair broadcasting, highlighting the wat Sincalir is losing business in order to promote a partisan agenda, and the possibility that the FCC may rule the "Stolen Honor" movie an illegal campaign contribution. Now, Sinclair says:
a documentary critical of Kerry's anti-Vietnam war activities will be shown only in part on Friday on 40 of its 62 stations, during a program examining how such films are used to influence elections. Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc., which has been criticized for ordering its stations to pre-empt regular programming to air the documentary, said reports that the film would be aired in its entirety were "inaccurate."
This is a change of tuen and shows the strategy is working: I guess 80 advertisers have pulled out. Let's keep the pressure on.
Marc
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 19, 2004 11:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Dfuller, Hardball was doing the same damn thing. Chris Matthews would ask all of these stupid questions about why Kerry isn't ahead. Then give the conservative Hack a softball.
What a joke.
Posted by: godfrey at October 20, 2004 01:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Anyone wishing to donate $$ to the dem party can do so at johnkerry.com
There's also a great volunteer opportunity to join the Kerry Phone Corps and call people in swing states and alert them to volunteer efforts in their area. This is seeming to make a real difference!
From what I've heard, GA dems have given up. I'm in Chattanooga & a bunch of the dems from Atlanta have been up here helping swing TN voters.
Posted by: Maria at October 20, 2004 09:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Godfrey,
There is no way MSNBC can call the election two weeks before it happens. Just look at some 2000 polls in November. One had Bush up 9 points in November 2000. Even Zogby had Bush up 5 points on a poll taken 10/28-10/31/00.
http://pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm
Posted by: DFuller at October 20, 2004 12:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Erg (and everyone else),
Yes ACT is the WAY TO Go if you can donate any money. I am in a swing state (NM) and have been volunteering with them for the past 3 months. They work like dogs and they KNOW what they're doing. They have a plan. They have hundreds of canvassers on the streets every day,and they follow up all voters. Last weekend the Ground War started as 100s of 1000s of ACT canvassers hit the streets. On election day they plan to have 600,000 on the ground. They need all the resources they can get.
Posted by: Pam at October 20, 2004 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This race is an absolute dead heat. None of these polls really mean anything as the Zogby polls just keep switching states back and forth between Bush and Kerry every other day. I admit I am a Bush supporter and just like I didn't believe the polls when they had him up by 10 points. This election is just 50% to %50. Nobody can predict this, lets face it, we are simply a divided nation and no matter who wins, there is no real winner as neither of them will have a true mandate from the people. Whomever does win, I hope we all try to unite and protect this country the best we can. Good luck to all and to your candidates.
Posted by: rrgrzych at November 1, 2004 02:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment