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Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Zogby's 10/19 Poll Now Available
Posted by DavidNYCZogby's latest is out. Here's what it looks like:
Bush retakes NV, OH, AR and FL. All Bush leads are quite small, and he is at 50% or greater in just MO, TN, FL and OH. His highest showing is 50.7% in Missouri. I don't need to remind you that Zogby's been quite volative all year, so take from this what you will.
Posted at 01:24 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
For a real picture of the state of the union, visit www.electoral-vote.com
Posted by: godfrey at October 20, 2004 01:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Two of the six days in the Zogby poll were in the heart of the Mary Cheney backlash. It seemed to really hurt Kerry on polls taken October 15 and 16. By Saturday it seemed like people had came to their senses. The third debate didn't help or hurt Kerry.
The daily tracking polls compared week to week:
10/17-19 (10/10-12)
Zogby
Bush 46(45)
Kerry 46(45)
TIPP
Bush 45(46)
Kerry 45(43)
Rasmussen
Bush 48.3(47.6)
Kerry 46.9(46.2)
ABC News 10/16-18 (10/9-12)
Bush 51(50)
Kerry 46(46)
Average
Bush 47.6 (47.2)
Kerry 46.0 (45.1)
Bush +1.6 (+2.1)
Posted by: DFuller at October 20, 2004 02:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Some interesting stuff from the WSJ writeup:
Still, in some ways the Zogby results show Mr. Kerry on more solid ground than the president. While none of Mr. Bush's leads are greater than the polls' margins of error, six of Mr. Kerry's nine are -- including Pennsylvania, where Mr. Bush's standing had improved since the Republican convention.
And the only state that the Zogby poll shows changing hands from 2000 is New Hampshire. President Bush won that state's four electoral votes in 2000 by a 1.3 percentage-point margin. The latest Zogby poll shows Mr. Kerry ahead by 5.1 points, several points within the margin of error.
Posted by: Jason at October 20, 2004 02:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Below is a detailed explanation of why some polls may not be quite accurate provided in Harris recent poll results.
Race Appears Tighter in Swing States
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Oct. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- With only two weeks to go before
the election, a new Harris Poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator
John Kerry, but the size of the lead depends on how we define likely voters.
And in 17 swing states -- in which votes for President Bush and Vice President
Al Gore were virtually tied in the 2000 elections -- Senator Kerry is doing
better and, using one definition of likely voters, the poll shows him ahead.
However, the sampling error on this sub-sample in the swing states is
substantially higher than for the nationwide sample.
These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S.
adults surveyed by telephone between October 14 and 17, 2004.
Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote
and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a
modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding all
those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush
has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has
proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this
election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which
case it would be wrong to exclude them.
Adding to the confusion about how to define likely voters (and Harris
Interactive(R) has not yet decided which definition to use in our final
predictions) this poll suggests that Senator Kerry may be doing better in the
swing states, in which the battle for electoral college votes will be decided.
In 17 swing states (where the total popular vote was tied 48% to 48% in
the 2000 election) this poll shows Senator Kerry with a seven-point lead using
one definition of likely voters (51% to 44%) and a tie using the other
definition (47% each). While these numbers should be treated with caution
because of the small sample sizes, they suggest the possibility that the
popular vote and the electoral college vote may divide differently, as they
did in 2000.
This poll also confirms that most likely voters (86%) believe they have
made up their minds and will not change them. Bush supporters are more likely
than Kerry supporters to say this. However, Kerry supporters (45%) are a
little more likely than Bush supporters (39%) to believe that the result of
this election will make a great deal of difference to them or their families
-- which may increase their likely turnout.
Another pair of questions shed light on the reasons why people are
supporting the two candidates. Most voters for Bush and for Kerry say they are
voting more for their choice rather than against his opponent. However, 40
percent of Kerry supporters say their vote is more a vote against Bush than
for Kerry, while only 17 percent of Bush supporters say they are voting mainly
against Kerry.
TABLE 1
BUSH VS. KERRY
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.
Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an
Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John
Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters
Likely Voters Likely Voters
(1) (2)
% %
George W. Bush 48 51
John Kerry 46 43
Ralph Nader 1 1
Other 1 1
Not sure/Refused 4 4
Bush Lead 2 8
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=820).
Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in
2000 (n=755).
TABLE 2
BUSH VS. KERRY IN 17 SWING STATES
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.
Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an
Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John
Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters in Swing States
Likely Voters Likely Voters
(1) (2)
% %
George W. Bush 44 47
John Kerry 51 47
Ralph Nader * *
Other 1 1
Not sure/Refused 4 4
Bush Lead -7 -
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=319).
Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in
2000 (n=293).
NOTE: This table is based on only 319 and 293 likely voters with a larger
sampling error (plus or minus 6 percentage points) than for Table 1.
* = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 3
MADE UP MIND OR MAY CHANGE IT
"As far as your voting in the presidential election on November 2nd, have
you...?"
Base: Likely Voters
Likely Election Preference:
Voters Bush Kerry
% % %
Firmly made your decision and
won't change your mind 86 91 84
Made a decision but still
might change your mind 7 6 9
Not made up your mind yet 7 4 6
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=820).
TABLE 4
HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE RESULT WILL MAKE
"How much difference do you think the result of the election for president
will make to you and your family -- a great deal of difference, quite a lot,
not much, or no difference at all?"
Base: Likely Voters or Already Voted
Likely Election Preference:
Voters Bush Kerry
% % %
A great deal of difference 43 39 45
Quite a lot 30 30 31
Not much 19 23 19
No difference at all 6 5 4
Not sure/Refused 1 2 *
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=828 for Likely Voters or Already Voted).
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
* = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 5
ARE BUSH VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST KERRY?
"Is your support for President George Bush more a vote for George Bush OR a
vote against John Kerry?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer George W. Bush
Total
%
For George W. Bush 82
Against John Kerry 17
Not sure/Refused 1
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=428 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Bush).
TABLE 6
ARE KERRY VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST BUSH?
"Is your support for Senator John Kerry more a vote for John Kerry OR a vote
against George Bush?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer John Kerry
Total
%
For John Kerry 58
Against George W. Bush 40
Not sure/Refused 2
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=383 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Kerry).
Posted by: Tom at October 20, 2004 06:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Can anybody posts the zogby polls for AZ, CO, NC and VA? thanks
Posted by: ed at October 20, 2004 06:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ed - Go to race2004.net and click on the electoral map for Zogby results in those states. This site also has Zogby paid results.
FWIW, I have faith in Zogby polling.
Posted by: rob at October 20, 2004 07:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This Zogby poll is great news for Kerry. In this poll he needs to only hang onto his own states and pick up one of the Bush states that are within the margin of error...Ohio, Florida, Ark. Can you believe Ark?
Posted by: Ed Hughes at October 21, 2004 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/21) survey of 65 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE. (This is the first bi-weekly edition.)
Executive summary: The race is tied: Bush has 252-254 votes and Kerry has 251-254. Although one candidate or the other shows a slight edge in one category or another, neither has a clear-cut advantage.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 22, 2004 12:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
CNN's map is showing Ohio and New Hampshire blue, but Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico red, along with Maine-District 2. I suspect all six of these are extremely volatile, and I also question whether any of the four new red states are actually red. I am very wary of the situation in Iowa, but am still favoring the prospect of a Kerry win there. It won't be easy though. He's gonna have to visit there several more times between now and Election Day, hopefully hitting Des Moines, Davenport and Mason City.
Posted by: Mark at October 22, 2004 12:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
nader all the wayy baby yeahhhh nader nader nader nader nader nader nadernader nader nader nader nader nader nader nader nader
Posted by: mommy at October 22, 2004 10:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Seriously, Mark, try and ignore the polls in the swing states. They can't really tell us anything for certain at this point as the race is too close to call. All we can go by right now, I think, is our gut feelings. Or just flip a coin.
Posted by: Pepe at October 22, 2004 12:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry is a dumb head my mommy will win.
Posted by: poo at October 22, 2004 02:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment