Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Guest Posting at the DailyKos
Posted by DavidNYCMarkos over at the DailyKos - 600-pound gorilla of the lefty blogosphere and "blogfather" to this site - has asked me to be a guest poster on the main page there. Needless to say, this was an honor and opportunity I could not turn down. Along with a new crew of guest writers, I'll be posting there on weekends (and whenever Markos is out of town). With final exams breathing down my neck, I probably won't get fully underway for a couple of weeks, but I hope you'll visit me over there, in addition to keeping up with what Tim throws our way here on the SSP.
And also, I wanted to give you one final employment update: I finally accepted a job with what I would describe as fairly big NYC firm. I'm really happy with my choice - the people there are excellent - and I look forward to working there this summer, and hopefully, in the future as well. Thanks once again to everyone who offered advice & encouragement during my job hunt!
Posted at 11:04 PM in Site News | Comments (8) | Technorati
Welcome to Canada...
Posted by Tim TagarisI don't think these people signed the loyalty oath. Photos from CNN
Posted at 04:02 PM in General | Comments (6) | Technorati
2006 Senate & House Races Open Thread
Posted by Tim TagarisGet ready to talk about 2006 Senate and House races as challengers indicate their intentions of running. If there are any states/races you want to focus on above a cursory review, indicate it here.
Tim
Posted at 12:30 AM in 2006 Elections | Comments (21) | Technorati
Canada Expects Protests For Bush Visit
Posted by Tim TagarisCandian Prime Minister Paul Martin might be welcoming President Bush to his country tomorrow, but the same cannot be said for 15,000 planning on staging two large protests in Ottawa.
If you take part in either of the protests tomorrow, please post your story in the comments section, or email me at ttagaris@yahoo.com. I will put it on the main page. If you have pictures, even better.
CNN has the story.
Polls show Canadians mostly disapprove of Bush's conservative values and the war in Iraq. About 59 percent dislike the president and 84 percent support Canada's decision not to send troops to Iraq, an October Ekos Research survey said.
One group, Lawyers Against the War (LAW), wants Bush arrested and charged with war crimes if he even sets foot in the country. The group says Canadian immigration law bars entry to those who have engaged in "gross violations of human rights."
How's that for a neighborly welcome?
Tim
Posted at 12:23 AM in General | Comments (1) | Technorati
Sunday, November 28, 2004
Take Up Your Pallet and Walk!
Posted by Tim TagarisIf we needed any more evidence that stem cell research promises unimaginable breakthroughs in human health, I offer you this article from from AFP.
A South Korean woman paralyzed for 20 years is walking again after scientists say they repaired her damaged spine using stem cells derived from umbilical cord blood.
Hwang Mi-Soon, 37, had been bedridden since damaging her back in an accident two decades ago.
Last week her eyes glistened with tears as she walked again with the help of a walking frame at a press conference where South Korea researchers went public for the first time with the results of their stem-cell therapy.
In a made for television moment that would make the Reverend Benny Hinn proud, the South Korean woman stood up from her wheelchair and took a few steps forward with the help of a walker.
While there is still a long way to go for stem cell technology and research, we are "turning a corner" where benefits of the break though transcend speculative science into the realm of reality.
Stem Cells in the News:
This weekend, over 2/3 of Swiss voters approved a measure allowing "allowing scientists to experiment on stem cells taken from human embryos." Complete article from The Guardian can be found HERE
Article about Stem Cells potentially offering a cure for Leukemia. Article from Life News can be found HERE.
Adult stem cell research could save the lives of thousands of adults who are suffering from leukemia, according to new studies involving umbilical cord blood.
A European study found that adult patients who received cord blood were as likely to be leukemia-free two years later as those who received bone marrow. In addition, a U.S. study, also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, found similar results.
Frame Alert:
As we all know, Republicans have a way of attaching titles, images, and phraseology coloring their issues in the way they want the public to see them. Examples that immediately come to mind with modern implications are: "Nuclear option" to "Constitutional Option" (Filibuster Rule). "Iraqi insurgents" to "Anti-Iraqi Forces," and now we must beware of their new frame for Stem Cell Research:
"Embryonic Stem Cell, "clone and kill," Research.
Just a warning, cause that is the argument you might be seeing a lot of.
For additional information on Stem Cell Research, the following sites are available:
Stem Cell Research Foundation.
National Institute of Health on Stem Cells
International Society for Stem Cell Research
Thanks for listening,
Tim
Posted at 11:45 PM in General | Comments (9) | Technorati
In Depth: Mount vs. Boustany (LA-7)
Posted by Tim TagarisWith the Lousiana General Elections right around the corner (December 4), I wanted to follow up my in-depth review of Melancon vs. Tauzin with some information about the Congressional race in the 7th District of Louisiana.
Willie Landry Mount (Democrat) vs. Charles Boustany (Republican)
Once again, if you are interested in heading the Bayou on a DCCC sponsored trip to help out either of the candidates featured, you can find information on that HERE
If you are interested in contributing the Mount Campaign, you can do so HERE
These last two races are a chance to rebuff the Republican gains made in the House of Representatives.
Primary Results for CD-7
Charles Boustany (R) 105,752 39%
Willie L. Mount (D) 69,069 25%
Don Cravins (D) 67,386 25%
Other 31,702 12%
As you can see, the main Democratic challengers themselves garnered 50% of the vote. This along with the fact that this is a currently held Democratic seat bodes well, on paper, for the blue team in this run-off.
Race Background & Currently in the News
This race is heating up and becoming increasingly bitter and ugly as we wind down to Election Day. Early voting has finished in the Bayou State and the votes will be cast on December 4th.
From The Advertiser of Lafayette Louisiana.
In the 7th District runoff, Lafayette Republican Dr. Charles Boustany Jr. faces state Sen. Willie Mount,D-Lake Charles, in a race to fill the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Chris John, D-Crowley.
The race has become increasingly bitter in recent weeks as the two candidates battle it out in television ads over their respective records and experience.
Boustany, a retired surgeon, and Mount, a former Lake Charles mayor, are both scheduled to attend a Rotary Club luncheon and forum Tuesday in Opelousas. It is expected to be the only time they meet before the election.
As the article points out, the two are gunning for the seat held by Chris John, who failed in his bid to become the next Louisiana Senator in a seat vacated by John Breaux and won by Republican David Vitter.
From the Associated Press
Lafayette Republican Charles Boustany Jr. faces accusations that he's overplaying his credentials as a physician. Lake Charles Democrat Willie Mount must rebuff allegations that her anti-abortion stance isn't tough enough.
Mount, a state senator, has an ad that says Boustany is deceptive in depicting himself as a surgeon. The ad says Boustany also receives "hundreds of thousands of dollars a year in lavish disability payments."
Boustany, a former heart surgeon, has run ads showing him in doctor's scrubs but said he's never hidden the fact he no longer practices. He has said he shut down his practice about a year ago, when he realized arthritis would prevent him to continue the work.
Boustany has said that he paid into an expensive disability insurance policy for years. He's said he has gotten enough money between the insurance payments and savings to get through the past year, but he will need to keep working.
Boustany said his disability insurance money is the result of good planning, and that he originally got it after hearing about other surgeons forced to retire because of physical disability.
Boustany has also gone on the attack, going after Mount's stated position as a pro-life candidate. A Boustany ad claims Mount "failed to protect life" in a 2001 state Senate vote, saying she "voted against tougher state regulations for clinics prescribing the morning-after abortion pill."
Finally, an endorsement of Mount by outgoing Senator John Breaux might be the key to unifying a Democratic Party fractured by a contentious and bitter Primary that resulted in State Senator Cravins (Mount's Democratic opponent in the Primary) threatening to file a Federal Lawsuit against the Democratic Party.
The state Democratic Party faced tough criticism last week from state Sen. Don Cravins, D-Arnaudville, who lost to Mount in the primary by less than 1,700 votes. Cravins, who is black, said he planned to file a federal lawsuit against the party for its role in a "unity" ballot that endorsed Mount and was mailed to black voters.
Continued (same article)
Mount, who is white, has some patching up to do within the party among Cravins supporters, who believe their candidate was wronged by the party. Cravins was upset by the pro-Mount "unity ballot" _ it had pictures of black families and Martin Luther King Jr. _ which was sent to black voters and was partly paid for by the state party.
As I said in my first installment some of us might have to remember that many Louisiana Democrats are a different breed than those of us who frequent the blogs. It is, as DemFromCT noted on my original post that Mount will vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker. While "holding your nose" review Boustany's positions on the issues as well, and come to the determination of who you would rather have elected in the Louisiana 7th.
On the Economy (Emphasis not mine)
will work to:
Balance the federal budget!
* Introduce legislation to reduce tax breaks, incentives and subsidies given to U.S. companies, which outsource jobs to foreign countries. These tax breaks, incentives and subsidies should be awarded to those U.S. companies that choose to expand a work force right here in the United States.
* Support lower and middle-class tax cuts.
* Work to permanently eliminate the marriage penalty.
* Work to permanently eliminate the inheritance tax.
* Generate investment and create jobs by providing tax incentives to small businesses.
* Work to revise tax laws to eliminate advantages for U.S. companies to invest in foreign countries and keep their profits there rather than doing business at home.
Choice
I am and have always been Pro-Life.As a member of Congress, I will support legislation that allows States more freedom in regulating abortions than the Supreme Court has permitted. I believe that life begins at conception and that it should be protected just as any other human life.
Furthermore, I strongly support promoting programs aimed at offering adoption as an alternative to abortion. With so many families willing to provide a home to newborn children, I believe we should do everything possible in providing for the adoption alternative.
Foreign Policy
I favor a very strong national defense, so that we never deal with threats from a position of weakness, but rather from overwhelming strength.I believe that when our troops are committed to battle abroad, we must stand by them, and give them all the support they need. But I believe just as firmly that we must never lightly put these brave men and women in harms way.
I favor policies that would encourage more exploration both off shore and in Louisiana to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. I also favor developing new alternative forms of energy.
We must continue to be vigilant in our quest to end the threat posed by threats of nuclear proliferation.
Iraq must be made stable and secure in order that be transformed into a democracy.
* Support efforts to engage the international community to secure and rebuild Iraq.
* Train Iraqis in order to protect their new democracy.
* Support our troops to get the job done and bring them home
Education
Education is the cornerstone of a successful society! In support of my commitment to make education a top priority, I vow to utilize my experience as a past Vice-Chair of the State Senate Education Committee to:Fight for the funding needed to effectively utilize the No Child Left Behind Act, a plan designed to improve student achievement and hold schools and states more accountable for student progress.
* Work to fill our classrooms with qualified teachers, providing incentives to attract and maintain them.
* Support Pre-K and after-school programs that strengthen students' educational and societal skills.
* Seek to make higher education more accessible and affordable by expanding the Hope and Lifetime Learning Tax Credit as well as increase the amount allocated for Pell Grants.
*Charles Boustany on the Issues
Like I said, before you pass judgment, take a look at Boustany on the issues. They can be found in full on the site linked above, on the right hand side.
His positions on Job Creation & the Economy are not very detailed at all. You can find them HERE He does a lot of talking about what is wrong with the Louisiana economy, but offers VERY LITTLE by way of a plan to solve the problems. It is almost embarrassing to see a serious Congressional Candidate have so little to say about the important issues of the day, with the exception of pontificating about what is wrong - and offering senseless anecdotes about what people across the country think about the Louisiana economy.
Want to Give Small Businesses and Families Ownership of Their Future... Tax Breaks for Their Budgets.
-I am the only candidate to sign the No-Tax Pledge. But, I go one step further than just saying I will not raise taxes. I believe that cutting taxes, providing tax incentives and credits is the hallmark of a forward thinking fiscal policy. Small businesses need the commitment so they can transfer prosperity to their employees and families deserve tax breaks so they can invest in health care, tuition, and retirement plans. Hard working people deserve a break... hard working people deserve to have their money working for them when they are resting.
It begins by developing a Comprehensive Economic Strategic Plan for the 7th District.
-We have thought unilaterally for too long. By focusing on what one parish produces, we have simplified our economy instead of creating a web of products and services that can multiply in value. We are shortchanging ourselves.
-I will meet with the business community and local elected officials on a regular basis to discuss how we can take advantage of our resources. I will also maintain an open door policy, both in the district and in Washington, to let new ideas flow freely.
Health Care
True Market Competition Favors Families/Patients FirstFamilies should be given tax breaks or subsidies on purchase of their health care. This will allow them to control their policy. But, to make it work, HMO's must do a better job of providing information, choice, and control to the consumer. In addition, our tax system must create health savings accounts. Restructuring tax policies will provide more money for patients and less worries so that a medical crisis does not also turn into a financial crisis.
The Uninsured Cannot Be Stranded
- Tax Breaks and Subsidies
- Information, Choice, and Control
- Health Savings Accounts
Beyond changing our tax policies to help the uninsured get insured, we must
Across the country there are 43 million uninsured... we have the resources to get them either insured or provide them with health care options that will cut the rising costs of health care for all.
- Foster Community Health Care Clinics
- Provide services for working families that can't afford health savings accounts,
- Expand federally qualified health care centers.
Frivolous Lawsuits are Driving Costs Up, Doctors Out
- Mediator to sift bad claims out
- Malpractice Insurance Premiums are driving medical workers out of the profession
And finally - Values Notice the emboldened framing of
the stem cell argument Boustany makes. This is something to think
about combating in the future.
Know this, when I am elected, I will:
o Defend the Ban on Partial Birth Abortion
o Support the Laci and Connor Peterson Act
o And oppose Federal Funding for Abortions
We cannot diminish the value of the unborn human life without diminishing the value of all human life.
I will also oppose Embryonic Stem Cell, "clone and kill," Research. Adult stem cells and other forms of research offer better results without destroying life.
And I will never support any form of euthanasia. Only God can decide when life ends. It is not a decision that should be put in the hands of any man or woman.
Life is not a choice and what constitutes a marriage shouldn't be either. I have been married to my wife Bridget for 25 years. I believe that marriage should be between one man and one woman.
- Supporting Abstinence education
- Supporting Faith based initiatives
- Supporting Tax credits for families that provide care for elderly parents
- Repealing the marriage penalty tax
- And Repealing the death tax.
The Fundrace
All information gathered from Open Secrets
Boustany has gathered $1,017,645 thus far. Here is an deeper look at where that money is coming from:
27% from PACS - which isn't that bad until you see how impressive Mount is.
Health $224,250 (Boustany is a former doctor who has closed his practice and currently collects large sums of disability)
Lawyers & Lobbyists $30,599
Ideology/Single-Issue $163,000
Mount has raised $684,360 total. 99% of that money comes from individual contributions. Only 1% from Political Action Committees. Here are the leaders:
Construction $82,050
Finance/Insur/RealEst $71,000
Lawyers & Lobbyists $106,723
Conclusion
So, that's the run down. I hope more of you read this one than the last. Thanks to Newsie for including me in their diaries you probably missed list for the week.
Once again, if you are interested in heading the Bayou on a DCCC sponsored trip to help out either of the candidates featured, you can find information on that HERE
If you are interested in contributing the Mount Campaign, you can do so HERE
Thanks for listening. Hopefully we can go two-for-two on Election Day, slimming the Republican leadership in the House. Hell, if every vote counts in a national election of 120 million votes - certainly every vote counts in the House.
Tim
Posted at 09:05 PM in Louisiana | Technorati
Friday, November 26, 2004
In Depth: Melancon vs. Tauzin III (LA-03)
Posted by Tim TagarisLast week I gave a "cheap seats" overview on the front page of DailyKos on the two Louisiana House races remaining this election cycle. After re-reading the post, I think I cheated the Democratic candidate from LA-3 a bit. It was a bit "information light." So, this time I decided let's take it a bit more in-depth.
Without further ado, let's go inside Charles Melancon (Democrat) vs. Billy Tauzin III (Republican) in Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District.
You can get involved by heading down to the Bayou on a DCCC sponsored trip. Information HERE.
Or, you can contribute to the Melancon effort HERE
Many of you might recognize the name Billy Tauzin. He has been a Congressman for near a quarter of a century in Louisiana. However, this is not the same Billy Tauzin, it is his son. Tauzin represents the very kind of D.C. entitlement I find abhorrent (on both sides of the aisle). While Melancon might not be the same kind of Democrat many of us are, it is important to note that this seat is a pick-up opportunity, a vote for Pelosi, and a chance to stem the tide of Republican victories on November 2nd.
Race Background
Tauzin knocked out a strong Republican primary challenge, in part by casting his ultraconservative opponent, state Sen. Craig Romero, as a defender of sodomy. Romero, furious that the party backed "the boy," as he called him, said some of the district's voters thought they were supporting the old man, not the son.
Still, with no record to run on, name recognition is probably Tauzin's biggest asset in a district his father held for nearly a quarter-century.
Battle of bitter primary opponents
In an interesting wrinkle, one of Melancon's primary opponents Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi crossed party lines and decided to endorse "Little Billy" in the run-off election. Touch�� says Tauzin primary opponent Craig Romero. From the Louisiana Weekly
Earlier in the week, Craig Romero told supporters that he would not endorse Tauzin under any circumstances, and when asked for whom he would vote, he refused to reply.
Romero is still bitter about Tauzin's claims that he supported the legalization of sodomy.
One endorsement that might help Melancon in the end is the one from Louisiana's largest newspaper, The Times-Picayune
Mr. Melancon brings a depth of experience that would help him make a quick start in Congress. He served five years in the state Legislature, was executive director of the South Central Planning and Development Commission and was vice chairman of the Thibodaux-based South Louisiana Economic Council. He is a businessman who most recently served as president and general manager of the American Sugar Cane League. He understands the needs of this district and promises to be a consensus builder in Congress.
Head to head - On the issues
Tauzin appears to ripping a page out of the classic Republican playbook. Someone tell me where we have heard this before? From the AP
Taxes are also at the heart of attacks on Melancon. Republican ads paint the Democrat as a tax-loving liberal along the lines of Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy.
In another classic Republican maneuver - Tauzin advocated a 23% national sales tax, and when he was called on it, claimed her never said such a thing. This is a new technique, but one that is catching on in Republican circles (see DeMint) From the AP again...
In ads and on the stump, Melancon accuses Tauzin of backing a 23 percent sales tax "on everything." The Democrat said such a tax would disproportionately affect lower-income families.
Melancon said he is basing his comments on Tauzin's stance on Tauzin's comments about the tax at an Oct. 19 forum in Houma and on a bill currently filed in the U.S. House of Representatives laying out a 23 percent national sales tax.
Tauzin said he has never supported such a tax. Parts of past sales tax proposals appeal to him, he said, such as abolishing certain taxes or getting rid of the IRS.
As many of us know, one of the major fights the next Congress will face is CAFTA, The Central American Free Trade Agreement - or NAFTA on steroids. After reviewing his website, this issue seems to be one that he highlights. From a Melancon Press Release.
"As the former head of the sugar industry representing 27,000 Louisiana jobs, I know what's at risk here. Louisiana may have taken some hard punches with NAFTA, but CAFTA could be a knockout we may never recover from," said Melancon. "I fought against CAFTA during my time heading the American Sugar Cane League, and I will continue that fight in Congress. If NAFTA taught us anything, it's that we need strong voices in Congress to fight unfair trade agreements that threaten competitive and viable industries and put thousands of Louisianians out of work." Top Washington Republicans, including House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, have renewed their push for passage of CAFTA (Houston Chronicle 11/9/04)
On health care, Melancon echoes the sentiments many of us feel, holding drug companies accountable, and allowing for the safe importation of affordable medicine from allies like Canada.
* If a senior is locked into a drug discount card, the drug company should be also. Right now the company offering the card can change weekly what drugs they will cover and the amount of the drug discount while seniors have to stick with one card for a full year* Keep drug companies from raising prices and then offering "discounts" of the same amount. Seniors need to be guaranteed real savings on their prescription drugs, not smoke and mirrors from drug companies protecting their profits
* Let Medicare negotiate lower drug prices for seniors. Currently Medicare is prevented from using its leverage to lower costs the way the Veterans Administration or even private companies do.
But yes, you might have to hold your nose at times while supporting Melancon. But like I said, it's a pick-up chance, he will vote for Pelosi over DeLay, and he has some decent issue positions otherwise. Once again, from the Melancon website.
* Abortion
�� Strongly pro-life
�� Has a pro-life voting record in the Louisiana legislature
�� Endorsed by Democrats for Life of America
* Gun Control
�� Opposes gun control
�� Opposes the assault weapons ban
�� "A" ratings with the National Rifle Association and Gun Owners of America
* Gay Marriage
�� Opposes gay marriage
�� Believes marriage should be between a man and a woman
* Crime
�� Supports the death penalty for violent criminals
Unfortunately, his "National Security" issues page is broken on his website and he didn't fill out the NPAT for Project Vote Smart so I can't bring you information about Iraq, Terrorism, etc..
However, when it comes to education, he is spot on - especially in light of the recent decrease in Pell Grant funding by the Bush Administration and his cronies in Congress. Once again, from the Melancon website.
CHARLIE MELANCON - "It's hard to explain to a teacher or first-grader why there are new schools in Iraq, while our schools are in shambles. We need to balance new investments in education with more accountability for the money spent and the performance of our schools. You can't get a good job if you don't have a good education. Our schools are the lifeblood of our economic development efforts. Improving our schools is the most effective economic development strategy we can have." <>STRATEGIES:
- Increase Pell Grant Program from $4,000 to $5,800 annually, giving economically disadvantaged students a better chance to attend college
- Fully fund "No Child Left Behind" to implement more accountability measures in our schools
- Support Character Education and Character Counts
- Keep our commitment to making college affordable for students who stay in Louisiana
- Fund more school construction and school modernization
- Work to attract and keep quality teachers in our schools
Little Billy Tauzin III on the Issues
Fortunately, he did fill out an NPAT on Project Vote Smart - it shows just how much of a wingnut this guy can be. Here are some select portions he is in favor of, direct from the form he filled out
Prohibit public funding of abortions and of organizations that advocate or perform abortions. (yes)Ease federal restrictions on the purchase and possession of guns. (yes)
Repeal federal restrictions on the purchase and possession of guns. (yes)
Allow citizens to carry concealed guns. (yes)
Should the United States decrease its financial support of the United Nations? (yes)
Do you support eliminating taxes on dividends paid to individual investors? (yes)
Do you support using military tribunals to try suspected terrorists when ordinary civilian courts are deemed inappropriate or impractical? (yes)
Do you support a policy of pre-emptive strikes against countries deemed to be a threat to national security? (yes)
Allow workers to invest a portion of their payroll tax in private accounts which they manage themselves. (yes)
And he is opposed to, or undecided about the following - once again, from Project Vote Smart:
Increase funding for national job-training programs that re-train displaced workers or teach skills needed in today's job market. (does not support)Increase the federal minimum wage. (does not support)
Strengthen emission controls and fuel efficiency standards on all gasoline and diesel-powered engines, including cars, trucks, and sport utility vehicles. (does not support)
Support the U.S. re-entering the Kyoto treaty process to limit global warming. (does not support)
Renew the ban on the sale or transfer of semi-automatic guns, except those used for hunting. (does not support)
Require manufacturers to provide child-safety locks on guns. (does not support)
Should trade agreements include provisions to address environmental concerns and to protect workers' rights? (does not support)
The finances
One last stop in the review of this race. The fundrace. Information gathered from Open Secrets
Top Tauzin Contributors and Breakdown:
Business $89,661 -- Ideological $92,250
Bell South, of which Little Billy was a lobbyist for contributed $17,500 to the campaign effort.
At the time of the last report, Tauzin had raised $603,194
42% of those dollars come from Political Action Committees. As you can tell by the breakdown, a good chunk of that from "values" and "single-issue" PACs.
Top Melancon Contributors and Breakdown:
Business $45,119 -- Labor $62,000
At the time of the last report, Melancon had raised $788,467
Not surprisingly 83% of those dollars have come from individual contributions.
Conclusion
So, at this point the choice is yours. I think its quite obvious who we are going to cheer for in this race. But the question remains, do you want to get involved. Once again, you can do so in the following ways.
You can get involved by heading down to the Bayou on a DCCC sponsored trip. Information HERE.
Or, you can contribute to the Melancon effort HERE.
Time is running out and the election is December 4th. At the very least, I hope this post provided a source of information about the campaign that will allow you to feel more "invested" on Election Day. At the most, hopefully it spurred you to take a weekend off and head down to the Bayou.
Posted at 02:58 AM in Louisiana | Comments (1) | Technorati
Thursday, November 25, 2004
Thanksgiving Greetings...
Posted by Tim TagarisThanskgiving greetings from the Ukraine, where they know what to do when every vote doesn't count. Civil Disobediance at its finest. Great first person blog account HERE.
(Mykola Lazarenko/Reuters)
Thanksgiving greetings from Iowa. Welcome Home. Here's to the rest of your brothers and sisters in arms returning safely soon as well.
(AP Photo/Quad-City Times, John Schultz)
Thanksgiving Greetings from our President. He's got big plans for us for the next four years.
Last but not least, Thanksgiving Greetings from Chicago to everyone out there who frequents this blog (and I suppose even those that don't). I am thankful for all of your wonderful ideas and look foward to keeping tabs on an Emerging Republican Minority while looking at some Swing Congressional Districts in '06. And thank you to David for making this blog what it is and letting me post a bit here. Get ready to talk about the two remaining Congressional races in Louisiana this weekend.
Tim
Posted at 03:38 AM in General | Comments (2) | Technorati
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
WA Gov. Republican Rossi Wins by 42 Votes
Posted by Tim TagarisIt appears that the first (of many) recounts has been completed and Republican Dino Rossi will be victor as certified by the Washington Secretary of State. The final tally, according to King 5 was 42 votes.
Democratic Challenger, Gregoire, trailed by a few hundred votes heading into the recount of the county that provided her the best chance to rebound, King County (Seattle). The results in King County were as follows:
Christine Gregoire D + 593
Dino Rossi R + 348
Ruth Bennett L + 30
Write-in + 82
Unfortunately, it was not enough to put the Democrat over the top. There is a press conference at 3 P.M. where the pronouncement will be made official. You can even call in and listen. From a press release:
Reporters who are unable to attend can still listen to the press conference by calling (360) 357-2903 and entering the code number 10068 followed by the pound key.
All of this comes on the heels of a race in the Montana State Legislature being decided by TWO votes. What makes it more interesting is that the balance of power in the lower house hinges on this race. Story HERE.
There is also a recount in a Texas State House race, where the Democratic challenger apparently won the race by 32 votes against a very powerful member of the State Republican Party. There will, of course, be a re-count. Rules of engagement to be determined by the people who brought you the crazily gerrymandered Congressional Districts. Story HERE
So, let this thread serve as a discussion about the recounts and their results, and the nonsensical nature of election systems that might allow for a different result each and every time a recount is conducted. I am not so sure how healthy that is for democracy.
Tim
Posted at 04:19 PM in Washington | Comments (3) | Technorati
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Congress: We're Watching Too
Posted by Tim TagarisPart of a constantly updated thread that will, at the very least, remain linked on the main page at all times for reference and update (Can we do that in a prominent position, David?)
11/23/04 - Washington Post - GOP Sneaks Provision in Spending Bill That Would Allow Committee Chairs to Examine Tax Returns of All Americans/Corporations:
"The provision, added to the spending package of more than 3,000 pages
last Thursday, would give staffers of the House and Senate
Appropriations committees similar powers to enter IRS facilities and
examine tax returns"
11/21/04 - Chicago Tribue - Intelligence Reform Bill Derails in House:
"The House did not bring the measure to a vote Saturday as Congress was trying wrap up its remaining business."
11/17/04 - New York Times - House Republicans Change Rules: DeLay Can Maintain Top Spot, Even if Indicted.
"House Republicans today approved a change in party rules to prevent
their majority leader, Tom DeLay, from having to step down from his
leadership position should he be indicted in an investigation in Texas."
Posted at 09:33 AM in 2006 Elections | Comments (7) | Technorati
Someone's watching...
Posted by Tim TagarisSorry if you are just settling down for a midnight snack.
Brought to you by the good people at Clear Channel Communications. Just in time for the The Patriot Act v.2.0
Tim
Posted at 12:00 AM in General | Comments (4) | Technorati
Sunday, November 21, 2004
Direction & Building In-House Infrastructure
Posted by Tim TagarisLet's dispense with the formalities and get right into the direction you said this blog should take in the upcoming months/years.
1.) 2006 Races: We will spend a good deal of time discussing the upcoming House, Senate, and even Gubernatorial races. Additionally, if all goes well, this site can serve as a hub for information (direct from campaigns hopefully) on ways to best get involved.
2.) Current News/Upcoming Legislation/Initiatives: Shining the light of transparency on government affairs and important issues set to fall before the Congress. A discussion of current events taking place in and out of the United States.
3.) On-going discussions about prescient topics will be "tagged" and remain visible from the main page, or at the very least linked within the current discussion. That way we can have a continuous discourse on topics like The Patriot Act II, for example.
4.) Most importantly, what you want to talk about - the way you want to talk about it - and ideas from within this community will be implemented.
That brings me to the topic of infrastructure. Over the course of time, I will work closely with David so that this site is not only a place for information/updates, but also an efficient source for Progressive activism. It may involve some rearranging, but appears to be what this community is looking for.
In keeping with a focus on 2006, it would seem to me a good place to start would be an immediately accessible on-site database of sitting Senators, Representatives, and Governors - we can & will fill in potential opponents as they become available. Also included in this database should be percentages received in previous elections, opponents, and possibly money raised. As we move along, we can build the database together with whatever information one could want to get involved, inform themselves, or just peruse at their leisure.
So, by Tuesday, I will start creating that infrastructure/database and we can fill in the blanks together.
I am excited. I hope you are. And in the near future, we will hopefully become a clearinghouse of sorts for activism and information about upcoming races, activism, and current events.
Tim
Posted at 10:42 PM in Site News | Comments (9) | Technorati
Monday, November 15, 2004
It's Not Farewell
Posted by DavidNYCI'm sorry I haven't been around much lately - I think I need a longer break than I originally realized. After a year of running this blog, I must confess that I'm a bit worn out, and I think I'll be taking an extended hiatus from the Swing State Project. That doesn't mean the SSP is going to disappear - to the the contrary, Tim (whose debt I am in) will faithfully take over the helm of this good ship. I leave it to you, the readers of this site, and Tim to chart the future course of this blog - something many of you have already discussed.
I am also incredibly, deeply grateful to the guest posters who helped make this site strong - a place truly worth visiting. Seamus, Fester and Rob provided insightful updates about their corners of the swing state world and taught us all quite a bit. I now know more about Pennsylvania and Arkansas than I ever imagined I would!
Above all, Chris Bowers' indefatigable devotion to the Cattle Call provided us with a lot of fodder for discussion and really kept this site humming at all times. Chris was also largely responsible for linking us up with Ginny Schrader and pushing our very successful fundraising drive. I owe Chris a tremendous debt of gratitude - and a whole bunch of beers.
Finally, the people to whom all of us truly owe thanks are the readers and commenters here. Like just about any blogger, when I first started this site, I was thrilled when I had 100 visitors a day. It was with amazement that I watched the site start to attract 1,000 people a day late in the spring, and then 10,000 a day in the run-up to the election. But it's not the numbers which thrilled me - it was the fact that we reached a critical mass which enabled us to have truly enlightening discussions in the comments section. I think we managed to do a little more than that, even: We created a vibrant community here.
With that in mind, I want you to know that I think this community can and should continue, and that I am not departing. As I said, Tim will run the show for as long as he likes, but I will likely drop by with a guest post every now and then, and I'm sure to surface in the comments. And as Tim asked below, if you have any thoughts about the direction this site ought to take, please share `em.
So once again, thank you to everyone. I wish you all the very best of luck, and keep up the good fight!
Posted at 02:41 PM in General | Comments (12) | Technorati
It's Your World...
Posted by Tim TagarisAs you have no doubt noticed by now, David hasn't been around to post as often as all of us would like. I posted here and there, about once a day on a wide range of topics. I have enjoyed how thoroughly you express your thoughts, especially compared to the short rants sometimes found on other blogs.
However, today I have to leave for six days, returning to Southern Illinois University to finally defend my Masters Thesis after a 7 month break to work on the election, play some basketball, and hang out with old friends.
So, maybe this would be a good opportunity to collect some thoughts about what people want to see posted on this blog, since the election is over (in some people's minds).
What topics would you like to discuss?
How many times a day would you like to see posts?
Should this remain a blog geared toward activism & not necessarily news?
In what way would be able to use this site to promote activism?
Should it focus on upcoming Congressional races for 2006?
Any other thoughts?
Specifics would be great, and when I return we can implement them together.
Thanks,
Tim
Posted at 12:37 AM in Site News | Comments (12) | Technorati
Friday, November 12, 2004
Election Post-Mortem. Inside the Numbers
Posted by Tim TagarisPew Research released a study yesterday on the Presidential Election that allows us to go deep inside the numbers. So without further ado, I am going to dive right in.
Moral Values
Once again, Pew finds that moral issues were the biggest factor in determining an individuals selection for President. Compared to the 22% who cited moral issues on the exit polls, 27% cited them with Pew. This might be a reflection of more Bush voters included than the exit polls, which were obviously skewed toward Kerry respondents. What makes this study interesting, as it goes in-depth to potentially define what moral issues constitutes.
Under the umbrella of "moral values:" 29% Gay Marriage - 28% Abortion - 4% Stem Cell Research. A very underwhelming amount of people named issues like poverty and economic inequality as moral issues.
Reactions
If you consider yourself a liberal, and you are depressed, you can take comfort that 47% of people would place themselves in the same category. By contrast, 93% of Conservatives say they are "relieved" by the results, and 91% also claim they feel "safer because of them election as well.
But, people still hold out hope for the future of the country overall. 61% of those surveyed think a second Bush term will be successful. 29% do not.
Also of interest, in respect to the what should the Democrats do next question, 52% of Democrats think we should stand up to The President; only 42% believe that we need to make an effort to reach across the aisle and work with him.
Some other interesting notes (I urge you to read the entire thing, its not long at all):
20% of voters cast ballots before election day
Waiting in Line to Vote: 42% didn't wait in line at all. 13% waited about 15 minutes. 10% waited up to an hour. 8% waited more than hour.
41% of people said they used the net to get news about the election, up from 30% in 2000.
84% of people said they followed the results on Election Day. 51% stayed up after midnight. 1/3 of "young people" followed Election results on the net, but most did in conjunction with the television on as well.
Tim
Tons of detailed charts available on Pew website.
Citation: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (2004). "Voters liked campaign 2004, but too much mud-slinging." http://people-press.org/reports/display.html3?ReportID=233
Posted at 03:54 PM in General | Comments (25) | Technorati
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Support the Troops - Veterans Day Edition
Posted by Tim Tagaris"The willingness with which our young people are likely to serve in any war, no matter how justified, shall be directly proportional as to how the perceive Veterans of earlier wars were treated and appreciated by their nation."
- George Washington
6.8 million veterans choose the VA for their primary health care provider.
VFW Comannder in Chief, Edward Banas, called the amount of funding for veterans health care, "a disgrace," a "sham," "inexcusable," and "deplorable."
2004 Budget cuts $200 million from Impact Aid, a program to support schools serving military children.
At least 250,000 veterans are forced to wait for their disability claims to be resolved by the Veterans Administration (VA). Sometimes up to two years. Despite the fact that thousands of veterans returning from Iraq will file disability claims, the FY 2005 budget reduces to number of staff responsible for processing those claims.
In an effort to "restructure" to VA, the Bush Administration announced the closing of seven hospitals. (NY, PA, KY, OH, MS, CA, TX) That's a total of approx. 5,800 beds nationwide.
A 2002 study showed that 150,000 veterans wait more than six months for an appointment for primary care.
The "Disabled Veterans Tax" forces veterans to forgo one dollar of their pension for every one dollar they collect on disability.
If you want to support the troops, then call your Congressman and demand that Congress implement Mandatory Funding of Veterans benefits. The implementation of mandatory funding would ensure timely and quality access to health care for our veterans.
Here are the bills: Senate Bill 50, The Veterans Health Care Gaurantee Act. And HR 2318 The Assured Funding for Veterans Health Care Act.
Notes: VFW Release 2/2/04, House Appropriations Committee, Minority Staff 6/17/03, Department of Education, www.ed.gov, House Committee on Appropriations hearing, Principi testimony 3/31/04, Associated Press 8/4/03, National Priorities Project, 2004.
Posted at 09:29 PM in General | Comments (3) | Technorati
Yasser Arafat: R.I.P. or Good Riddance?
Posted by Tim TagarisBy now, most of us know that Yasser Arafat has passed away at a hospital in France Wednesday night. So, I pose the following questions about one of the most divisive figures in modern times:
Rest in Peace or Good Riddance? Nobel Peace Prize Winner or Terrorist Murderer? Did he want peace with Israel, or was he the roadblock on the "road map?"
I am going to take the easy route and say there is enough blame to go around and that hopefully we can sieze upon this moment and make some progress towards peace.
But don't cop out like me. What do you think?
Here are the quick notes in the immediate aftermath, and links to articles if anyone wants to read further.
President Bush calls the death a "significant moment in Palestinian history." Arafat's Funeral will be in Egypt. He will be burried in a stone "coffin," and hopes to be transfered to Jeruselum down the road. Prime Minister Howard of Australia says "History will judge Arafat harshly."
Juan Cole (for those of us who simply adopt his opinions on the Middle East)
Tim
Posted at 01:54 AM in International | Comments (31) | Technorati
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
The book on the new Attorney General
Posted by Tim TagarisI saw some people ask "downthread" about the potential new Attorney General. His name, if confirmed, is Alberto Gonzales.
The Associated Press reports that Gonzales served as Bush's general counsel when the President was Governor of Texas. He then went on to become the Secretary of State in Texas and eventually found his way to the Texas Supreme Court.
So far it might not sound so troublesome, but read on.
Gonzales, unfortunately, is a public supporter of detaining "terror" suspects for extended periods of time without access to the courts or even representation. He is also an aspiring an "author." His most famous recent body of work was the famous 2002 memo "in which Bush claimed the right to waive anti-torture law and international treateies providing protections to prisoners of war."
Jesse from Pandagon notes Gonzales argued the Geneva Conventions are "quaint" and "oudated."
Oh, and he was a partner in the law firm that represented Enron.
Steve Soto has the last word on Gonzales:
"Given how shocked various GOP senators were in seeing what transpired at Abu Ghraib, and knowing how upset even John Warner is at being stonewalled by the Pentagon and the White House over his requests for information on Abu Ghraib, it's easy to see how the Democrats can form alliances with GOP moderates to strongly fight any Gonzales nomination to the highest law enforcement post in the land. If John Warner and Lindsey Graham are that concerned about the Abu Ghraib debacle, and if John McCain shares Colin Powell's revulsion at the trashing of the Geneva Convention protocols and what it means for American POWs from here on out, how can any of these three vote for the architect of that legal doctrine to be our AG?"
Ok I lied, I have the last word. To me, this is a pretty transparent move to expand a Latino base for the Republicans. Sure, it helps that Gonzales and the President share the core principles of lack of due process and torture in the best interests of our country, but that's just an added bonus.
I find it ironic that this comes on the heels of an announcement by the White House, expressing the desire to legalize some illegal aliens.
Message amplification reveals itself in many forms. Color me a skeptic.
Tim
Update 2:40 P.M. - Here is a .pdf LINK to the memo Gonzales sent to the President. The one where he calls the Geneva Conventions, "quaint" and "outdated."
It should also be noted that CNN reported that Gonzles once got President George W. Bush out of jury duty (obviously before he was President). The reason CNN gave was so that Bush didn't have to answer that "one simple question." Just how many times have you been arrested?
Posted at 01:13 PM in General | Comments (5) | Technorati
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
Republican Noise Machine Never Stopped - Ours Has
Posted by Tim TagarisThe ink was barely dry on our paper(less) ballots cast on voting machines across the country and the constant refrain from Republican operatives was that election results manifested a "mandate" for the President. Or as Atrios likes to call it, a Man Date. Bloomberg news was even claiming a "popular vote mandate" at 9:45 AM on the 3rd.
In case we didn't learn about Republican message amplification through repition during the election, let this serve as State's Exhibit #2. Despite the fact there was no overwhelming disparity in percentage, Republicans are running around "with their hair on fire" screaming "mandate" to anyone who will listen. And of course, people are buying.
Since the concession speeches were made, the Republican noise machine has declared the election results have given the President the go ahead from the public for tax code reform and social security reform/privitization. Maybe I was asleep for the past 8 months, but where did those issues come from? If the President has a mandate for anything, and that's if 51% is the low-bar for mandates now adays, it's to keep our country safe, continue his flawed policy in Iraq, some tort reform, and to preserve the "sanctity of marriage."
I personally don't remember hearing much out of him about tax or social security reform during the campaign. That is, until his "gaffe" about social security privitization in the closing week. He has wasted no time in continuing the flawed policy in Iraq, and most suggest that the real "reform" will occur after the lame duck session, when Republicans have a greater majority in both Houses of the Congress.
With his new "mandate" on securing the sanctity of marriage, I trust the first step will be taking shows like, "The Bachelor," "Who wants to marry a midget," and "trading spouses" off the air.
Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is on every channel that will have her, preaching the Gospel of Matthew and the new Democratic Minority Leader in the Senate will likely be Harry Reid of Nevada. Both appear to be part of a concerted effort to move the Party closer to the center, or, Republican-Lite as Al Sharpton likes to call it. The discussion of nominating Howard Dean as Party Chairman highlights the internal struggle for the soul of the party and lack of any clear message thus far.
In the Democratic net-roots, you can hardly escape a blog that isn't littered with discussions of voter fraud or people getting pissed because their favorite bloggers aren't talking about the issue. Meanwhile, some of you might be shocked to know that Republicans bloggers are already at work on 2006. Don't believe me? Well, they are already going after Democratic Senator Mark Dayton of Minnesota, and putting netroots infrastructure in place. Check it out HERE.
So as we go into the bottom of the first inning: Republicans 1 - Democrats 0
Posted at 08:20 PM in General | Comments (24) | Technorati
Monday, November 08, 2004
Election Depression Relief...
Posted by Tim Tagaris1.) Five Second video of Andrew Sullivan picking at what might a thong under his pants during the closing moments of Bill Maher this weekend. Video Here.
2.) A website where hundreds (?) of Americans have submitted pictures, apologizing to the rest of the world because the United States elected George Bush. Website Here
3.) Santa Claus denied a flu vaccine. Story Here
4.) A bit of GOOD election news. It looks like the Democratic candidate for Governor in Washington might just hold on. She widened her lead today in the counting of absentee ballots. Follow the results Here
5.) Good news for us that still hold the deepest admiration for Governor Howard Dean. He is mulling taking over as Chair of the DNC. Although, one must wonder if that immediately takes his name off the long list of potential Presidential candidates in 2008? Story Here.
Hope this helps. No? Give me a break - I'm trying here!
Tim
Posted at 08:53 PM in General | Comments (16) | Technorati
Sunday, November 07, 2004
The Job Hunt
Posted by DavidNYCSome readers had asked, so I thought I'd toss this personal post-election update out there. I did wind up with several job offers for next summer in NYC, and I am very, very pleased with how things turned out. (For all my whining, it was worth it!) I've narrowed it down to two law firms, and I plan to make a final choice soon.
Thanks to all my readers who offered advice and encouragement!
Posted at 02:54 PM in General | Comments (3) | Technorati
General Election Cattle Call: Iraq
Posted by Tim TagarisThere is another election afoot this January. Only in Iraq they don't need Diebold machines and petition laws to keep undesirables (Sunnis/Anti-Americans) from office. The Washington Post reports on a number of restrictions placed on individuals who would like to seek offices in the upcoming elections.
1) They have to have at least a secondary school diploma and "a good reputation."
2) They cannot have been convicted of "a crime involving moral turpitude."
3) They cannot have made money "in an illegitimate manner at the expense of the homeland and public finance."
Any chance good Sunni Muslims had to get elected is further inhibited by the fact that up to 1/3 of the country won't even be safe enough to vote in elections (Sunni regions mostly). I shall leave the irony of moral trupitude and profiting at the expense of the homeland as restrictions for our President and Vice President to deliberate.
Meanwhile, the Shias are trying to get their "shiat" together and provide a unified front in the upcoming election, The New York Times reports.
The Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is worried that unless Shiites unite in the upcoming election, their overall position will be weakened. Two prominent Shi'ia stand in the way, and you'll never guess who they are. Let's take a moment to welcome back Pentagon favorite, Ahmad Chalabi & that rascally outlaw Moktada al-Sadr.
Ayatollah al-Sistani (and probably the White House) is nervous that Chalabi's attempt to reach out to al-Sadr and form an anti-American coalition would probably have widespread support in Iraq. If that happens, the Shiia vote could be split (at best?) between Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's moderate Sciri party and the anti-American party platform that would come from a united Chalabi & al-Sadr.
Someone wake up Chris Bowers, we need another General Election Cattle Call.
Posted at 05:48 AM in General | Comments (8) | Technorati
Friday, November 05, 2004
Weekend Break
Posted by DavidNYCI think I'm gonna take a break from blogging for the weekend. Next week, we'll come back, do some more wrap-up, and then decide where to take this site. In the meantime, please feel free to use this as an open thread.
Oh, by the way, did anyone happen to catch this headline in the New York Times? This has to be the bizarrest story I've seen in a long time: Warplane Strafes a School in New Jersey. Now we know what it probably feels like to live in Fallujah.
And my life just gets weirder and weirder. This happened just one subway stop away from where I live:
Yeah, it's time to take a break alright.
Posted at 05:43 PM in Site News | Comments (11) | Technorati
The Real Five Stages of Grief
Posted by DavidNYCYou've probably heard of Elisabeth Kubler-Ross's five stages of grieving at some point or another. But this is what the real five stages are:
1) Denial2) Anger
3) Bargaining
4) Depression
5) Impeachment
Now you know!
(Thanks to chillnc for the inspiration.)
Posted at 02:44 PM in General | Comments (56) | Technorati
Thursday, November 04, 2004
The Electoral College Did Matter
Posted by DavidNYCWell, here's something else I was wrong about: The electoral college did wind up mattering. Even if Bush takes Iowa and New Mexico (as it seems he will), his final total will be just 286 electoral votes - 16 over the 270 he needed.
Bush won three states by a margin of 18* or more EVs: Texas, Florida and, of course, Ohio. Had any single one of these states gone to Kerry, we would have won. Obviously, the margin in Texas was enormous - we lost by 23 points. In Florida, though, we lost by just a little over 5 points, and in Ohio, by just 2.5 percent.
In 2000, as we well know, had any single Bush state of any size flipped, Gore would have won. However, the last time there was a single state a) whose outcome directly affected the final results and b) was as close as Ohio was this year, was California all the way back in 1916. So of the three narrowest victories in the past 100 years, we have:
1) Bush in 2000
2) Wilson in 1916
3) Bush in 2004
Bush takes the gold and the bronze. Mandate, my ass.
* Kerry would have needed 18 extra EVs to win. Had Bush's total been reduced by 16, he still would have won with 270. Had it been reduced by 17, he would have had 269 and then won in the House. So Kerry needed to take Bush down to 268 in order to win.
Posted at 04:08 PM in General | Comments (109) | Technorati
The Hate Amendment and Stem Cells
Posted by DavidNYCOn Tuesday, citizens in eleven states voted on ballot measures to outlaw gay marriage. All eleven passed, even in Oregon. But these were not the first such ballot initiatives - that dishonor belongs to the amendment passed in Missouri over the summer. Here is what I wrote at the time:
As you may know, the state of Missouri voted this week to amend its state constitution to explicitly prohibit gay marriage. (I'm personally of the opinion that these kinds of laws will ultimately run afoul of the federal Constitution's full faith and credit clause, particularly as it relates to the issue of gay divorce - but that's neither here nor there for the purposes of this blog.) What's especially distressing - beyond the actual vote - is the fact that turnout was up dramatically. Considering this was an August primary, I'm amazed that 41% of voters came out (when the usual range is 15% to 25%).This becomes a real problem because similar measures are on the ballot in other swing states this fall: Arkansas, Michigan, Oregon and, yes, Ohio. Everyone expects the vote in Ohio to be especially close this year. I'll be beside myself if we lose that state because hatred and fear drive record numbers of voters to the polls to vote for an abomination of an amendment - and pull the lever for George Bush while they're at it. The Missouri turnout is really troubling. This whole thing could wind up being a big sleeper issue for the GOP.
Well, now, of course, I am beside myself. Some people speculated that the big turnout for the MO anti-gay amendment was due to the contested Dem gubernatorial primary, but the numbers, in my view, didn't support that.
To be fair, I have yet to see any conclusive evidence that these various ballot measures - particularly the one in Ohio - had an effect on the presidential results. (And after all, Bush did better this time versus 2000 in tons of states which had no such initiative on the ballot.) But they certainly did not hurt Bush.
Though I identified this as a potential "sleeper issue" for the Republicans back in August, at the time, I didn't have any ideas as to how we might respond directly. But Nick Confessore over at TAPPED has an answer: We need to promote ballot initiatives that will help our turnout. Nick suggest that measures to require state funding for stem cell research would be one such possible avenue.
Unfortunately for us, the only place where stem cells were on the ballot was California, which Kerry won handily. But it was a good issue - even the Governator supported it - and it passed by an 18% margin. I'd like to see this measure in place in all the states where we there are vulnerable Senate seats (on both sides) in 2006, as a trial run.
Atrios is encouraging his readers to think of other possible ballot measures that might help our turnout. Do you guys have any ideas?
UPDATE: Atrios has a brilliant idea (from a political, not a policy, point of view), though it's in the realm of legislation, not ballot initiatives: The Tax Fairness Act. I wonder if there is a way to spin this into a ballot measure somehow.
Posted at 01:10 PM in General | Comments (27) | Technorati
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
The Only Poll That Counts
Posted by DavidNYCYesterday, the state of Florida released a new poll (definite voters, no trendlines):
Kerry: 47
Bush: 52
Other: 1
(MoE: ±0.0%)
I have to say, I find this poll a bit suspect. First off, have you ever heard a poll with a zero percent margin of error? And what do you think their "definite voter" model is? It seems like a total outlier - most other polls had Bush at 50% or less. Just one poll in the last month had Bush at 52!
Oh, wait...
Hmm.
So how did we get here? Why did Bush wind up with stronger final results than just about every single pollster predicted? It's not as though the "truth fell somewhere in between" any given sets of results. Everyone (except that one LA Times poll on 10/26) had Bush below 52%. Did the incumbent 50 percent "rule" fail us? (Research shows that it occasionally does.) Did undecideds break toward Bush?
Or was the polling all somehow screwed? Yes, I know - one or two percentage points "falls within the margin of error." But again I say, we aren't talking about a single poll. We are talking about a few dozen. The odds of them all being under don't seem that good to me.
As you all know, I based most of my analysis and projections on polling. I'm not a statistician or any kind of expert - my approach is that of an interested lay person. I was wrong about Florida (and Ohio, too). I'm not looking to "blame" anyone or anything for that, but I think my "output" was off because the "input" (ie, the polls) were off. I can't really think of any good reasons as to why they were so consistently off, though. As I say, it's also possible that the incumbent rule didn't work properly here. But again, I'm not sure as to why this might have happened.
I obviously realize that the question of why one lefty blogger was wrong about the election is hardly of major importance right now. But I think a lot of people were wrong about how things would turn out, and a lot of them were wrong for the same reasons that I was. (Some people were wrong for different reasons, largely having to do with arguments that Dem voters were being under-polled and that a disproportionately and atypically big turnout for our side would carry the day.) I think we need to understand where we all went wrong this time so that we can avoid the same mistakes again.
Lastly, I just want to let you all know that I definitely plan on keeping the site going for a little bit longer in the near term. Posts won't be as fast and furious as they were at peak times, but I'd like to be able to do some post-mortem analysis, in conjunction with all of you.
So what do you think? Was the polling data bad, and if so, why? Was the incumbent rule wrong, and if that was the case, then why? Or was it something else entirely?
(And a note to the Bush supporters who are acting like the worst kind of sore winners: Cut it out.)
UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal says the incumbent rule "obviously" failed. The only possible reason he cites is that given by another Democratic pollster, Mark Mellman, who said that "we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime."
This may be right. But the problem with this thinking is that the sample size is SO tiny. We've fought several big wars, but we've seldom had an incumbent seeking re-election during one.
Yes, Nixon won a crushing re-election victory in 1972 in the midst of a very unpopular war (Vietnam). But Lyndon Johnson chose not to run again in 1968 - and would very likely have been defeated if he had. Truman was barred by the 22nd amendment from running again in 1952 (during the Korean War). I don't know if he would have run again, but he might very well have lost to the popular Ike (who beat Stevenson by 11 points).
FDR, of course, won re-election in 1944, but with the smallest margin of his four victories. World War I, though, was over by the middle of Wilson's second term. The same was true of McKinley and the Spanish-American War. You have to go all the way back to the Civil War to find another example of an incumbent fighting a re-election battle, when of course, Lincoln won.
So in three prior cases, incumbents have been re-elected during wartime. But I'd argue that in two other cases, had the incumbents run, they would have stood a good chance of losing. Again I say, this idea may well be right, but I just don't think we have enough data to go on.
UPDATE: Les in the comments reminds me that the 22nd Amendment did not bar Truman from running again (it only applied to presidents after him), and that he did in fact make a stab at running again in 1952. However, he realized his unpopularity was too great and chose to abandon his effort early on.
Posted at 03:09 PM in Florida | Comments (77) | Technorati
Yesterday
Posted by DavidNYCI was up from Monday morning until midnight last night. Yesterday, I spent the entire day doing poll watching in Philadelphia. I'll tell you more about it in a bit, but suffice it to say, it was a great experience.
Also, obviously, I was more than a little bit wrong about several of my predictions. I'll have more to say about that later, too.
And I lost a bet with a friend that we'd know the winner by 9am today. But for now, please use this as an open thread.
UPDATE: It's over.
Posted at 10:12 AM in General | Comments (59) | Technorati
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Evening Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCThe results, I am sure, must be pouring in, especially from the states with early poll closing times. As for me, I'm probably back on the bus right now, finally headed home. Keeping my fingers crossed for good news.
Posted at 08:00 PM in General | Comments (102) | Technorati
Follow Swing States Live
Posted by Tim TagarisQuick Post.
Follow Ohio Presidential Here
Follow Florida Presidential Here
Follow Pennsylvania Presidential Here
Follow Minnesota Presidential Here
Follow Virginia Presidential Here
Tim
Add more in comments and I will add them to this post up top - due to my comittments with the Jeff Seemann campaign, my time is limited.
Enjoy the races and get your results before they are broadcast.
Tim
Posted at 07:51 PM in General | Technorati
5:41 P.M. Exit Polling Numbers...
Posted by Tim TagarisHere are the exit polls from 5:30 PM EsT. Bear in mind that Zogby comes out with his final poll soon as well. If you haven't voted yet, seriously, its about time you move your ass.
Florida: Kerry +1
Pennsylvania: Kerry +2
Ohio: Kerry +1
Wisconsin: Kerry +4
Michigan: Kerry +2
New Hampshire: Kerry +4
These apparently come from a compilation of media sources and polling outfits. It's all I got for right now folks (And yes, they are ripped from drudge).
Tim
Posted at 05:44 PM in General | Technorati
Afternoon Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCSurely there must be exit poll rumors by now.
Posted at 04:30 PM in General | Comments (23) | Technorati
Mid-Day Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCI've been doing poll watching in Philly all morning long. What have you been up to?
Posted at 12:00 PM in General | Comments (30) | Technorati
On the ground in... (Ohio)
Posted by Tim TagarisI am currently sitting at Stark County Democratic Headquarters and at 8 A.M. there are two dozen people here. In 45 minutes, mass phone banking begins. Officials here claim that in Stark County alone there will be around 1,200 volunteers in total throughout the day. That includes phone banking, driving, election protection, canvassing and everything else necessary to carry the day in Ohio.
Even the local newspaper, The Canton Repository, conceded that John Kerry would get around 53% of the vote yesterday. When I say they conceded, I mean it. They have endorsed one Democratic nominee for President in over 100 years.
What is the signifcance, besides just being in Ohio? Well, Stark County is considered to be the state's bellwether. Newsweek, Washington Post, New York Times and many others claim the same. The bellwether label is not one the local party takes lightly either. CNN is broadcasting live from Canton, Ohio and everywhere you go there are television cameras, journalists, and yes - lawyers.
During the course of the day while canvassing and answering press inquiries for Jeff Seemann, I will update this thread with Ohio information and pictures from the field.
Update 1 8:30 A.M.: The same official who told me that we would have 1,200 volunteers today just said that early numbers indicate record turnout and that "we are making history today," in terms of number of voters in Stark County.
Update #2 One P.M.: Turnout in Stark County is still high, the rain has let up. One serious instance of voter intimindation outside of a polling place. The man had Kerry/Edwards signs all over his car, parked more than 100 ft. from the polls. A Republican official approahced his car and wrote down his license plate after asking him, "what's your business here?" When he drove away to come down to HQ, he was pulled over by an officer who said he heard the man was harassing voters at the polls - you should see this man, the claim is laughable. He was then written a ticket for failing to use a turn signal and sent on his way.
Feel free to use this thread to share stories from the ground where you are at. Tell us what the scene on the ground is, how your voting experience went, if you were challenged, how long did you wait in line, etc...
Let's make history today.
Tim
Posted at 08:29 AM in Ohio | Comments (22) | Technorati
Morning Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCWhat's the good word so far?
Posted at 07:00 AM in General | Comments (3) | Technorati
Predictions, Part 3
Posted by DavidNYCThis is the third and final predictions thread here on the Swing State Project. It's really simple:
What will the final electoral college tally be?
If you need a hand with the numbers, try MyDD's clickable electoral map which shows the states proportionally to their EVs. The LA Times has a nice one as well, using a normal map. And Jim Howard's has long been a favorite of mine because it has complete historical data as well. (To fill it in, click the "advanced features" button and then "copy" the 2000 results to the 2004 map.)
You can also post your results at Race2004.net. So what's it gonna be?
Posted at 12:05 AM in General | Comments (13) | Technorati
Monday, November 01, 2004
Tuesday
Posted by DavidNYCI won't be around for election day - I'll be spending the entire day in Philadelphia, doing election protection along with hundreds of other law students from DC-area schools. I'm going to set the site to auto-post a few open threads throughout the day, and a friend will be checking in on the admin side. Traffic may jump (or it may not, if everyone is out doing poll watching), but I expect things to run smoothly.
To victory!
Posted at 11:04 PM in Site News | Comments (1) | Technorati
Sunday on the Campaign Trail with Ginny
Posted by Chris BowersThis week, I had the time of my activist life working with/witnessing the Ginny Schrader campaign in action. It was a grassroots, citizen-based campaign the likes of which I have never seen before in my life. Ginny herself is a remarkable, fantastic person. If John Kerry wins tomorrow, I will still be depressed if Ginny Schrader loses. She is exactly the sort of person we need in Congress, the sort of person everyone says they want in Congress. She is the American Dream in the flesh.
Here are just some of the things I learned about Ginny's campaign during my two days:
�Ģ No staff member has been paid in about a month. Nearly all of the money they raised went directly to campaign related activities, even though they raised more than $400K over the past three months. In addition to funding the final mailing, our final few contributions probably meant that the staffers would not go home completely empty-handed.�Ģ Ginny's campaign might be the first Congressional campaign in history to raise the majority of its money online. Ginny received the majority of her money form blogs, MoveOn, DFA and direct online contributions.
�Ģ Over the final week, the campaign is fueled primarily by several hundred volunteers, most from in-state who just walked into either the campaign office or one of the five Democratic coordinated campaign offices in Bucks county.
�Ģ Apart from organizations such as ACT, MoveOn labor and environmental groups, there are nearly 1,000 volunteers walking Bucks county in the coordinated Democratic campaign this week. Bucks has just under 600,000 people.
�Ģ If Kerry reaches 55 or 56% in Bucks county, Ginny will win. I have seen the numbers in the county, both for the congressional and Presidential campaign, and this is very doable. Right now, Bush is stuck in the mid to low forties in the district.
On Sunday morning, before noon, I helped seventy-five volunteers stream into the office, fold literature, be quickly and orderly assigned walking lists, and sent into the field to work with the over 200 volunteers at one of four offices of the Bucks County Democratic coordinated campaign.
Also on Sunday, starting at 7:30 am, well before Ginny spoke in a predominantly African-American church in the MontCo corridor of the PA-08, an RV covered with Ginny signs, called the "Ginny mobile" was already touring the streets. Playing music and with former Congressman Mike Forbes as MC, Ginny would jump out of the RV every so often to shake hands with enthusiastic supporters. I was frequently aboard the RV, and being there gave me a feeling of utter confidence and excitement about the campaign.
I saw Ginny walk tables in a diner with Senator Bill Bradley, who I had the honor of meeting and chatting with for a couple minutes (we actually talked about, of all things, Chris Mathews). I shared a free loaf of bread with the staffers, Ernestine Bradley (Bill's wife), George Schrader (Ginny's husband) and Ginny's two young granddaughters, who came to the diner for the event.
I saw Senator Bradley, usually reserved, immediately perk up and give the most intelligent, thoughtful response to any question the second he was asked. He was remarkable--the political equivalent of what my father said Jim Brown was like as a football player (Brown walked back to the huddle as slowly as possible to conserve energy, but he would explode whenever he was handed the ball).
I saw staffers, most of whom were younger than myself, act with incredible professionalism and dedication even as they casually chatted with me about blogging, Senate campaigns and swing states. I did not keep an exact count, but I think the staff thanked me more than one hundred times for the help the netroots had given to the campaign.
I saw a rally of two hundred volunteers greet us when we arrived at the one of the coordinated campaign offices, cheering like mad as Ginny, Senator Bradley and everyone else stepped out of the RV. I saw Ginny and Bill give excellent speeches, and then I saw all two hundred volunteers return to canvassing only a few minutes later.
In the midst of a campaign fueled almost entirely by small donations averaging $40 and hundreds of volunteer activists, I saw NRCC TV ads calling Ginny Schrader and Lois Murphy terrorists who supported the rape of young girls. Now you tell me, how am I supposed to have any respect for Republicans at all after seeing that? It was the face of pure hatred scowling at a group of active citizens filled with hope. The NRCC is running this ad nationally to attack every Democrat in a close election--how can you have any respect for Republicans at all after this attack?
In short, I saw politics the way it should be run: a fully functional grassroots campaign supported by the larger party. I also saw it up against the definition of how politics should not be run: an evil smear campaign used in an attempt to perpetuate a radical agenda. A loss here would be a profound defeat for American politics. Then again, that Ginny is close is already a huge victory. This is what the blogosphere has wrought.
Posted at 10:54 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati
Report from Obama Rally in Springfield, IL
Posted by DavidNYCIllinois was always going to be one of the bluest Dem states this year, but Barack Obama's ascendence has been nothing short of extraordinary. My very good friend Yvonne reports in from an Obama rally on election eve in Springfield, IL - the heartland of what remains of the state Republican party. It may not quite be swing state material, but Obama is the favorite almost-Senator of the entire left-blogosphere - and I'm certainly not immune. From Yvonne:
Tonight I went to a rally in downtown Springfield for Barack Obama and regional/ county candidates trying to break the stranglehold of Republican dominated politics in central Illinois. It was great! Barack was his usual eloquent self, and he certainly raises the profile of the candidates at the bottom of the ticket. All of the candidates looked fatigued, including Obama, but still, he cranked it out!Barack told of meeting a woman two days ago in Chicago who was born in 1899. He talked of how she cast her early vote, but still wanted to meet him and have a few pictures taken with him. This woman, he said, was born in the shadow of slavery, during a time when she was unable to vote as a black person and a woman. She lived through every political and social turn of the 20th century.
He said if this woman wasn't tired after all of that living and all of that fighting, he didn't have the right to be tired right now either. None of us do. The message was, keep working until the polls close, to the last hour. We can do it.
Yvonne also sent along a few picture of her son James (17+ years old and just narrowly missing out on the vote this year!) with the luminaries in attendence. Here's Jimmy with Barack, of course:
And here's one with the great Senior Senator from Illinois, Dick Durbin:
I think we all know Obama has a great career ahead of him. Not bad for the self-proclaimed "skinny kid with a funny name." I can't wait for him to get started.
Posted at 10:41 PM in Safe States | Technorati
General Election Cattle Call, November 1: Final Projection
Posted by Chris BowersNational Popular Vote
John Kerry: 50.13%
George Bush: 48.37%
Others: 1.50%
Interestingly, it is the TIPP poll that gives Kerry the final push over 50%. With 9% undecided, and most of the undecideds allocated to Kerry, Kerry���s lead rises from 0.40% without TIPP to 1.76% with TIPP. In front of many thousands of people, I am obviously staking my reputation as an election forecaster on the Incumbent Rule. I stand by my research on the subject, and I expect it to bring Kerry into the White House with a very 1976-esque margin of victory.
Electoral College
John Kerry: 291
George Bush: 247
States changing hands from 2000: FL and NH switching to Kerry
States Projected By Less Than Three Points
Ohio: Bush 50.2, Kerry 49.4
Wisconsin: Kerry 49.7, Bush 48.4
Florida: Kerry 50.0, Bush 48.5
New Mexico: Kerry 50.3, Bush 48.5
Iowa: Kerry 50.7, Bush 48.5
New Hampshire: Kerry 50.6, Bush 47.8
According to my methodology, every other state is projected by more than three points, and thus leans toward one candidate or the other. Every single other state goes as you would expect. I have Kerry winning all 291 of his electoral votes by more than 1%. In other words, I project Kerry as the winner tomorrow night, no overtime. I have Kerry falling short in Ohio but not by much. Please, prove me wrong in Ohio!
That is the best guess I can make. Even though I allocated 86% of the undecideds to Kerry, I think I erred on the conservative side when it came to which polls I included. I always used LV models when it came to state polls, and I included, without any adjustments, polls such as Mason-Dixon, Gallup and Quinnipiac that I felt over-sampled Republicans.
If I am nervous tomorrow and have nothing else to do, I will adjust this project to take into account the final national polls. However, I doubt it will have much, if any difference. I think Kerry is going to win. I think there is going to be record turnout. I think the undecideds will break overwhelmingly for the challenger. I think our GOTV efforts will make an important difference in Kerry���s favor. We will all find our tomorrow how close I came.
Posted at 07:55 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (13) | Technorati
Get Out the Vote in Pittsburgh - It's Your Turn!
Posted by SeamusGET OUT THE VOTE IN PITTSBURGH!
We have 24 hours left. And we need your help NOW!
I've been working down here in Pittsburgh at the Steamfitters Hall with America Votes since Saturday. It has been a good experience, but we have been woefully short on the volunteers we need to get out the vote in the Burg. That means that we need folks within driving distance of Pittsburgh who aren't already committed to getting out the vote to come on down.
Are you supposed to work? Call in sick.
College classes? Call in sick.
Doctor's appointment? Call in sick.
This is the most important election in our lifetime. Directions and more info below the fold.
Directions
Use this Mapquest link, enter your address, and create directions.
Mapquest Link to the Steamfitters Hall
Note: If you are traveling north on Route 51, you want to turn left immediately after the BP gas station (also on the left).
Call me on my cell phone at (814) 229-4790 if you need to.
Background
The America Votes coalition, along with SEIU, Sierra Club, and ACT, is trying to help get Pennsylvanians to the polls. But our volunteer base has been inadequate, which means if you can feasibly drop everything on your desk, we need you now.
I've been here since Friday night. That night, we organized canvassing in the Sierra Club office which has a solid volunteer base. On Saturday, we moved on to the America Votes site but have not met our volunteer goals. We have been canvassing the South Side, Greenfield, and other neighborhoods. These are areas that have not turned out to vote in adequate proportions in prior years. Today, we have been canvassing with door hangers to remind folks when polls are open and where their polling place is. Believe it or not, people often do not know these things.
Tomorrow is crunch time. We are going to be canvassing the neighborhoods and reminding folks that we need them to vote. But we need more bodies if we are going to do this successfully.
If you are not within reach of Pittsburgh, please take the time to figure out where you can go help get out the vote. To do that, visit Act For Victory and click on your state. The contact numbers for offices in your state are listed on the left.
Posted at 05:07 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Technorati
Predictions, Part 2
Posted by DavidNYCA while back, we discussed our predictions for which states were most likely to flip from red to blue and vice-versa. Scroll down to pepe's helpful summary to see what the conventional wisdom here was.
Here's my funkier question for round two:
What "surprise" is likeliest to emerge from the presidential election results?
This can be anything verifiable by the final presidential tallies. So I'm talking about things like, "Bush gets one EV in Maine" or "Kerry takes Virginia" or "There's a tie in the electoral college." You don't have to actually think your prediction will happen, just that it's more likely than any other potentially "surprising" event.
So whaddya say?
Posted at 02:37 PM in General | Comments (38) | Technorati
Prof. Abramowitz: Bush's Situation is "Dire"
Posted by DavidNYCProf. Alan Abramowitz over at the EDM blog crunches the same numbers that I did and comes to a very similar conclusion:
George Bush's situation in all four of these key battleground states [FL, MI, OH & PA] is dire. His support is well below 50 percent in all of them and he is currently trailing John Kerry in 3 of the 4. A clean sweep of all four states by John Kerry is a distinct possibility.
Looking at just the polls since October 15th, the good professor computes the following averages:
|
State |
No. of Polls |
Kerry Led |
Bush Led |
Tied |
Average |
|
FL |
11 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
47.5 B, 46.5 K, 1.2 N |
|
MI |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
47.2 K, 44.2 B, 1.0 N |
|
OH |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
48.3 K, 47.2 B |
|
PA |
11 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
48.7 K, 46.8 B |
Though Kerry has averaged one point behind Bush in Florida, Abramowitz thinks that "huge turnout" tomorrow will push the state blue. I've always, always been skeptical of claims that "this time, turnout will be enormous," but this is finally one year where I'm prepared to believe it. And if turnout is big, we win.
But we still gotta make sure that happens.
Posted at 02:06 PM in General | Comments (9) | Technorati
Why Non-Swing-Staters MUST Vote, Too
Posted by DavidNYCThis post is going to be short, simple and to the point. Even if you don't live in a swing state, it is absolutely imperative that you vote on Tuesday. For one, there are probably worthy Democrats running in contested races for other offices. But even if you're in a situation like mine, where every Dem you plan on voting for in every race is guaranteed to win by a landslide, you still need to vote.
Why? Because we need to ensure that John Kerry and John Edwards' margin of victory in the national popular vote is as big as possible. Yes, of course - the national vote doesn't literally "matter" in terms of selecting the victor. But it does matter in terms of conferring legitimacy on the winner. The last thing we want is a reverse of 2000, where Kerry wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote. I don't think this is likely, but analyst Tom Schaller thinks it's possible - so we should do everything we can to avoid that possibility.
If you're in New York or Texas, California or Indiana - any state not "lucky" enough to be a battleground this year - you still have a duty. Go cast your vote for Kerry-Edwards, and make sure your like-minded friends and family do the same.
UPDATE: Markos reiterates the importance of this point.
Posted at 02:20 AM in Safe States | Comments (8) | Technorati
I'm Feeling Good
Posted by DavidNYCI think the big picture is looking very good for us, and I think we're gonna win this one. Putting aside all the stories about GOTV and early voting (which I think favor us), here's why I'm feeling good:
In Ohio, the only polls which have shown Bush at 50% since September 28th - and there have been a LOT of polls conducted since that time - have been one Strategic Vision poll on 10/11 and one Zogby online poll on 10/18. Strategic Vision, of course, is a GOP pollster, and everyone loves to (justifiably) question Zogby's results. Oh yeah, you probably saw that cute Columbus Dispatch poll the other day, which also had Bush at 50. But guess what - it had Kerry at 50, too.
In Florida, Bush has occasionally poked his nose above 50%, but more often than not, he has failed to do so. Don't be mislead by the LA Times poll you see on that Race2004.net link - Bush was at 49 among RVs. Gallup's poll from the 24th is also misleading, but for different reasons - though reasons you should probably be familiar with by now. Steve Soto has repeatedly and conclusively shredded Gallup's voter samples - they overweight for Republicans as if it were 1868.
Prior to that, you again have that Zogby 10/18 interactive poll, and then back very early in October, you have a poll each from Quinnipiac, SUSA and Rasmussen, all of whom have released newer polls which show Bush back below 50. Yes, Rasmussen had Bush at 50 on the 27th, but he had him at 49 on the 29th.
In Pennsylvania, Bush has not been at 50% well, basically, ever. Yes, Gallup had him at 50% yesterday, but again a) it's Gallup and b) it's LVs - with RVs, Kerry is up 49-47. Also, Gallup doesn't ordinarily publish their voting sample party ID numbers. Steve Soto has to nag them for those numbers each and every time.
But whatever - this is still exactly ONE poll showing Bush at 50% in PA when, to the best of my knowledge, NONE have previously shown him that high in that state. I'm gonna bet on the other six zillion polls.
What about the other states, where Bush has supposedly been making gains of late? In Michigan, Bush hit 50% once upon a time in a Free Press poll, back on September 27th. That's about as fresh as a twinkie buried in Howard Hughes' tomb. In Iowa, he's done so twice in that time-span, and again, once was a Gallup poll where the RVs had him down to Kerry, 47-48. If Karl Rove wants to hang his hat on that one SUSA poll, he's welcome to do so.
Wisconsin? Sigh... this song is starting to get repetitive! Yep, one poll above 50% in the past month, and again, Gallup, about which nothing more need be said. And in Minnesota, Bush has never gotten to 50 in the past month.
Finally, I'll wrap up with New Mexico. Well, there's been a lot less polling here than in the other major swing states (perhaps as befits its five EVs), but except for one (say it with me) Gallup poll early in October, the only good news for Bush is a new Zogby poll out today which has him at 51-42. Ugly for us, I'll grant. But if we lose NM (which I don't think we will), then we're still fine.
If we win FL and OH (plus NH, which I think is in the bag for us), then even if we lose some of the states in the Upper Midwest, we can still win. I make this point not to suggest we have some kind of cushion, but because if I'm right about OH and FL, then I think there's almost no way we'll do terribly in the Midwest.
The fairest objection to this analysis is that I'm relying on the 50 percent rule too heavily (ie, undecideds may not break our way, even though historical trends say they ought to), or there are just too few undecideds to matter. If you believe the former situation is the case, then none of this polling matters, so you can skip right on past it. But as for the latter possibility, even if there are only a tiny number of undecideds, if they mostly break our way, that can tip this election.
Ok, I've said more than enough. How are you feeling?
Posted at 12:15 AM in General | Comments (34) | Technorati