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Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Mid-Day Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCI've been doing poll watching in Philly all morning long. What have you been up to?
Posted at 12:00 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
ZOGBY HAS AN ANNOUNCEMENT OUT THAT SAYS TO WATCH COLORADO, FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA AND VIRGINIA. . . THERE MAY BE SOME SURPRISES.
That's encouraging for Colorado and Virginia, but what about FL and PA????
Posted by: James at November 2, 2004 12:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Where in Philly have you been David?
Posted by: Chris Bowers at November 2, 2004 12:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm waiting anxsiouly for the early exit polls!
Posted by: godfrey at November 2, 2004 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zobgy's final poll has the race even at 252 EVs each. Tied are VA and PA!!! OH and FL are in the Bush column, CO is in the Kerry column. Zogby is thus concluding the election comes down to PA...and VA??? Lordy, this is a wild twist of things!
Posted by: Pepe at November 2, 2004 12:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
http://www.swingstateproject.com/
WHAT is going on with these Zogby numbers? Why does he have FL red on the map and then says to watch it? What's he saying about FL -- it's an upset if it goes which way? VA I am not that surprised about. Does anyone really know about turnout today? What are the turnout numbers?
Posted by: Matty at November 2, 2004 12:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I voted this morning in the Pittsburgh area. I heard on the radio after voting that Allegheny County is expecting 80% turnout. That would be huge!
Posted by: Tom R at November 2, 2004 12:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This level of turnout has to be good for us. These aren't Lockheed Martin shareholders breaking records at the polls.
I wonder if our congressional canadiates will enjoy a bounce.
Posted by: Robert at November 2, 2004 01:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
From the Washington Post--"According to Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll out Sunday evening, 30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, either through early voting or by absentee. Of those who have already voted, Kerry leads President Bush 51% to 43%.
"According to the Des Moines Register poll out late Saturday evening, 27% of Iowa adults have already voted. And among those Kerry leads 52% to 41%.
Posted by: Willis at November 2, 2004 01:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't understand what Zogby is implying about FL, either. I mean, it's a coin toss, so whoever wins it won't exactly be shocking the nation. Could he mean that it will not be as close as everyone thinks? That would be a surprise!
He seems to imply that Bush has a better chance in PA than most of us thought, while Kerry has a better chance in VA & CO than most of us thought. Very interesting!
Posted by: Pepe at November 2, 2004 01:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Is Zogby making his projections based on exit poll data or his own wildly flawed stae polls?
Posted by: Mark at November 2, 2004 01:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Perhaps this means that John Kerry was correct in spending $2 million+ in VA, eh?
Posted by: Dale at November 2, 2004 01:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby's battleground polls today have Kerry leading by 4 to 6 points in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Florida is tied.
From CNN: The New Mexico secretary of state's office is predicting the heaviest turnout in state history.
About 46 percent of the state's 1.1 million voters have already voted. No estimates on who's ahead..
Posted by: Willis at November 2, 2004 01:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What have we been up to? We've been trying to cover Ohio from California, in between phone calls to Ohio.
Posted by: joseph at November 2, 2004 01:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby's only reliability is him calling 2000's election. He's been all over the map this year.
Posted by: godfrey at November 2, 2004 01:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, here's some more news from NJ.
Right after my class at Rutgers (I live on-campus) I went to vote. There was barely anybody there when I arraived at 12:23. What's up with that? I told another voter about it, and she said that maybe it was because it was lunchtime or people were still in class. I sure hope so, since NJ might be a little closer than thought, and a high university turnout overall is crucial to Kerry's win. Reading everybody's posts have been uplifting, though.
Keep it up, people! We might just see the election called tonight!
Posted by: vivaPR at November 2, 2004 01:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Did anyone see the latest on CNN, a female voter in Florida, checked the electronic confirmation screen, prior to completing her vote and it had changed all her democratic votes to republican votes. She called in an attorney and polling officials who confirmed the error. The machine was 'taken out of service' and she was able to vote on another machine. I hope all the folks double check whatever media they are using before pulling the 'trigger'. This makes me paranoid and I am not a conspiracy type of person.
Posted by: Charles at November 2, 2004 01:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Breaking News: SOurce Drudgereport.com "Kerry campaign finds comfort in 1st batch of exit polls. Kerry competitive in Key states."
Wow! hOW MUCH SHOULD I READ INTO THIS?
Posted by: godfrey at November 2, 2004 02:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
More Breaking News: According to drudge more good news for Kerry! Kerry ahead with small lead in Ohio and Florida!!!! (SOurce exit polls)
Posted by: GODFREY at November 2, 2004 02:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Caution: these exit numbers are raw and strange. Don't get me wrong. I think Kerry wins. But we need harder stuff than lunch-time exit polls.
The good news is that tallies of early and absentee voters are strong for Kerry in key states.
Posted by: willis at November 2, 2004 02:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Although I am cautiously optimistic, I don't put much into the statements by the Senator Kerry campaign about the first round of exit polls. I would be more optimistic if independent parties found that things are going well. Senator Kerry and Bush will spin the early results in order to encourage the rest of their folks to come out.
For those of you who haven���t get to your polling place yet:
WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR? SKIP CLASS, TAKE OFF FROM WORK EARLY, OR GET OUT OF YOUR CHAIR AND GO VOTE. KERRY NEEDS YOUR SUPPORT. THE REPUBLICANS WIN IF WE DON���T SHOW UP.
Posted by: DFuller at November 2, 2004 02:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm starting to worry a little. After huge momentum from early voting and long lines early in the day, things seem to have slowed tremendously. I get the feeling Bush supporters will start coming to the polls now that things have slowed down. I hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: Daniel at November 2, 2004 02:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here are those early numbers (K/B):
AZ - 45/55
CO - 48/51
LA - 42/57
PA - 60/40
OH - 52/48
FL - 51/48
MI - 51/47
NM - 50/48
MN - 58/40
WI - 52/43
IA - 49/49
NH - 57/41
Supposedly the early returns favored Bush in 2000.
Posted by: AnthonySF at November 2, 2004 02:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ASF - where did you get these numbers?
Posted by: mram at November 2, 2004 02:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mram - you can find those numbers on both
race2004.net and the drudge report site
Posted by: Charles at November 2, 2004 03:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just got back from handing out candy to people in line at our polling place. Our precinct includes the local college, and I'm so happy to see so many students and other young people VOTING! Almost no problems reported.
Our county had 37.7% early and absentee voting - and our lines are *still* long. Look for RECORD turnout. I'm still saying 70% nationwide.
Here in Colorado, the Kerry mood is enthusiastic and hopeful.
Ok, out to canvass some more sporadic Dems before our 2pm poll check. I'm really having a great time!
Posted by: Ilana at November 2, 2004 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
According to Drudge, the early exit polls were 59% female and 41% male.
Posted by: DFuller at November 2, 2004 03:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Dems may have a perfect storm here if Kerry's strength in early exit polls is validated by the real numbers tonight. Most Americans believed yesterday that George Bush was gonna win this election. With that in mind, I think it's far more likely that voters in red states with competitive Senate races will split the ticket and vote for a guy like Brad Carson or Erskine Bowles than they would if they were expecting a Kerry victory.
Posted by: Mark at November 2, 2004 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Guys do you believe the Michigan #s? We should be stronger there!
Posted by: godfrey at November 2, 2004 03:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Florida treachery already:
Thousands of votes for Bush were mysteriously counted before voting even began on misaligned electronic voting machines:
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1028-02.htm
An immediate recount is needed of 13,000 votes in Volusia county (all early voters) after a machine crash; both parties have been notified:
http://www.local6.com/news/3879408/detail.html
Posted by: AnthonySF at November 2, 2004 04:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
HIstorically, Republicans tend to vote early on Election Day, Democrats late -- when they get off work.
HIstorically, for Bush to win a state, exit polls right now -- 4 PM Eastern time -- should be showing him 15%+ ahead.
The Democratic vote surges in on TV from about 6 PM until midnight, followed then by a slight Republican rural/western counter-trickle.
Historically.
Though now we are in an age with relatively more high-income Democrats and more low-income Republicans, I don't think the historical pattern is dead yet.
Ralph
Posted by: Ralph at November 2, 2004 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment