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Monday, November 01, 2004
Predictions, Part 2
Posted by DavidNYCA while back, we discussed our predictions for which states were most likely to flip from red to blue and vice-versa. Scroll down to pepe's helpful summary to see what the conventional wisdom here was.
Here's my funkier question for round two:
What "surprise" is likeliest to emerge from the presidential election results?
This can be anything verifiable by the final presidential tallies. So I'm talking about things like, "Bush gets one EV in Maine" or "Kerry takes Virginia" or "There's a tie in the electoral college." You don't have to actually think your prediction will happen, just that it's more likely than any other potentially "surprising" event.
So whaddya say?
Posted at 02:37 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
I've had a feeling about Virginia for quite a while. It's my upset dream! So I'll say Kerry carrying VA is the most likely big surprise, on our side. On the other side, Bush winning HI would be a real shocker to me.
Posted by: Randy C at November 1, 2004 03:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry takes the Big Three and I go to bed early.
Posted by: DFuller at November 1, 2004 04:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree ...Kerry wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio
Posted by: Sean at November 1, 2004 04:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry takes OH ... Bush campaign sues and refuses to concede ... what will be the outcome?
Of course, if the comments are right and we get FL too, nothing to lose sleep over.
Posted by: Marc at November 1, 2004 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I see Larry Sabato's final prediction is for Bush to win, 276 to 262. Of the big three, he has Kerry winning PA and OH, but losing FL. He also has Bush winning IA, WI and NM. Sabato says for Kerry to win the voter turnout will have to skyrocket about 117,000,000. I think the turnout could do just that, so we'll see.
Personally, I still think Bush is more likely to win OH than FL, and he's more likely to win FL than PA. Yet I could see those three states going to either candidate. I suppose the biggest surprise would be for all three of them to go for the same candidate, yet that could happen, too.
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 04:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I meant to say that Sabato says "for Kerry to win the voter turnout will have to skyrocket ABOVE 17 million." Long and frantic day!!!!
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 04:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't see why Sabato would now consider Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin to be Bush states. Recent evidence shows them all trending Kerry, save for some outlier polls. I expect Kerry win get the hat trick in the Upper Midwest and Ohio, but not Florida.
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think we'll know who's won VERY early. If the turnout shows up Kerry will win Ohio and Florida and others states like Virginia will be closer than they should be. I think it will either be a huge democrat turnout or just all hype. I doubt it will be that close.
Posted by: Jocko at November 1, 2004 04:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think Kerry takes the big 3. My upset special pick is Kerry takes one of Arkansas or Missouri.
Posted by: Brett at November 1, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The surprise topic of election night will be the nebulous term "margin or error." I think the polls will have had it wrong by 4 percent and there will be an electoral landside............in favor of Kerry, I hope.
Posted by: Matchew at November 1, 2004 05:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That's "margin of error" of course.
Posted by: Matchew at November 1, 2004 05:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry wins Texas. Even though there's a greater chance of me winning the lottery twice and giving the money to charity instead of buying a sweet new computer, think of the aftermath. Right-wing neocon fascists everywhere have heart attacks from the shock and die; far left-wing commies laugh themselves to death; moderates, true conservatives, and capitalist lefties take over and rule in a spirit of non-partisan debate and compromise. One can imagine the progress! Not that I want neocons to die; everything they do proves liberals are right.
Posted by: Dale at November 1, 2004 05:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
In seriousness, Kerry sweeps the Southwest. Except Utah. NM, AZ, and CO go for Kerry in big margins.
Posted by: Dale at November 1, 2004 05:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oops, forgot Nevada.
Posted by: Dale at November 1, 2004 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have Kerry at 318 EV's, Bush at 220.
Upset will be SIZE of young voter turnout, and size of Independents , both groups to Kerry.
People are voting with economics/culture/liberties in mind, and that favors Kerry.
from 2000, Kerry picks up FL, NH, VA, WVA, OH, and ARK
Bush picks up Iowa and Wisconsin.
Sleeper state - NEVADA
Winner projected on the networks by 10:10 EST !
Posted by: RBobbitt at November 1, 2004 05:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think the likeliest "surprise" is an early wrong call for more than just one state which has to be reversed, say, about one hour later due to newer data hinting in the opposite direction.
Another potential likely "surprise" would be a 3rd candidate getting more than 0,5% nationwide.
Other "surprises" like "PA goes red" or "OH goes blue" are within the potential outcome, therefore they wouldn't really surprise me. [Although every "unexpected bushiness" would not really mean fun to me...]
Posted by: Bornheimer at November 1, 2004 05:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
First of all MN is Kerry Country. MN will be in the Kerry column early Tuesday night.
My worst fear is that both sides will claim victory instead of one of them conceding. Has anyone thought of that possibility?
Posted by: RoadinMN at November 1, 2004 05:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
RBobbitt, I'd be very surprised if the race was called at 10:10 eastern time unless it's an absolute blowout. That's before the polls even close on the West Coast. I'd say it'll be at least an hour later before the race is called, barring a momentous surge for one candidate or the other. Keep in mind, we're gonna have early votes to count after the November 2 votes are tallied. It'll be the AM hours before this race is called IMHO.
Road, I hope you're right about MN. Do you live in the Twin Cities or in rural Minnesota? I'm from southwestern Minnesota. I expect my county will be split down the middle, but home county in southeastern Minnesota will be solidly Kerry.
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 05:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
kerry will declare victory assuming the networks call the states for him.bush will refuse to concede and litigation could last for a long time.
Posted by: JOEL at November 1, 2004 05:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
OK I will change my prediction of the network call of the winner to 11:10 EST!
Posted by: RBobbitt at November 1, 2004 06:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I could see the possibility of neither candidate being willing to concede after the networks declare the race "over." However, if it's a blowout, we won't have to worry about this. I hope Kerry reaches 300 EVs. It's so weird to think of a race like this, where it could be a Kerry blowout, a Bush blowout or a even a tie! At any rate, the popular vote will be no blow out, that's for sure.
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 06:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
By the way, Sabato has MN in the Kerry column tomorrow, which is what I wrote in my original post. It's NM.
A Raleigh poll has Bush winning NC by 8 points. No surprise there.
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 06:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
So to clarify, Sabato predicts that NEW MEXICO will be in the Bush column tomorrow.
He mentions that Bush could lose if the voter turnout skyrockets over 117 million. I think it will. What do y'all predict the voter turnout to be for this election? I predict upwards of 125 million. With the early voting in NC, over 1 million Tar Heels have already voted. That is roughly 18% of our state's voters. The previous early voting record in NC was a "mere" 388,000! Tomorow is going to be a very exciting day at the polls.
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 06:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oops, forgot Nevada.
You forgot Poland, too.
Posted by: DavidNYC at November 1, 2004 06:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think turnout will be a surprise. It will be much greater than anyone thinks. Another surprise (going out on a limb here) is that Badnarik will just barely outpoll Nader. If turnout is indeed as large as I think it will be I think there will be a few surprises with red states going blue...Virginia, and maybe something really surprising (like TN or NC), but VA sounds good.
Posted by: oddofme at November 1, 2004 06:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You forgot Poland, too
Damn. How'd he know?
Posted by: Dale at November 1, 2004 07:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Dale's Southwest Sweep Surprise is one I'm crossing fingers for, but I think the chances of Kerry taking AZ are slim to none.
I think the most likely surprise is an early winner due to landslides in the EST battlegrounds.
I would say, "record turnout", but that's no surprise!
Posted by: Ilana at November 1, 2004 07:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry is going to win by a landslide - atleast as for as EVs are concerned. He's going to take the big three, NH, WI, IA, MN, NM and AR!
320-218
And it is going to be very very close in CO, MO, WV and NV
Posted by: mram at November 1, 2004 07:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I hoping for some southern surprises. With Rain hitting the mountains in VA, TN, and NC, perhaps that will keep the Republicans home. Hey, I can dream :)
Posted by: Jason - Charlotte at November 1, 2004 08:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I predict 118 million...and I think that's being generous. Anything higher than that and the lines will be so unbelievably long that they'll have to delay poll closings for many hours. Americans are too spoiled to stand in line that long to vote. I still think Kerry will win with 118 million though.
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 08:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
....Biggest surprise is Bush takes Minnesota. Minnesota has changed a lot over the last four years. DFL is a lot weaker than it used to be. HHH3 came in third in the Gov race, Mondale lost by 3 points, and there is a republican gov. Union membership has been in steady decline and the farming ecomomy is good. Outside of the twin cities, have become much more conservitive over the last few years. More people are moving out to the burbs which are more republican.
Sorry folks...I'm afraid Minnesota is changing. I predict Bush will win by 3%. Florida will stay with Bush as will Ohio. I'm afraid this election will be over early and Bush will win.
One state to look at is NJ. I'm sure Bush will not win there. However, if Kerry wins by 4% or less...I'm afraid it will be a long night for Kerry supporters. This is what happens when you have no southern strategy besides Florida. Kerry will not win a southern state and that makes it very tough from a strategy point of view. And none of you here seriously think that AR,VA, or WVA is going to go for Kerry? Say what you want about Rove, the guy is a master at strategy. Look what's been going on the last few weeks. Bush has been defending Ohio Florida and NH. Kerry has been defending MN,IA,WI, PA, NJ, MI, NM, and HI. In the book "ART of War" there is a line that says "choose your generals wisely". The fact is the republicans have better generals than the Dems.
My Longshot darkhorse pick....HI goes to bush. Large military population and the military vote is breaking 3 to 1. If you can dream...I can dream too :)
Posted by: Bill at November 1, 2004 09:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bill, I'm from Minnesota and much of what you say is correct. However, it takes a perfect storm for a Republican to win Minnesota. The Wellstone Memorial gave them such a storm in 2002 (when Coleman won by TWO points, not three). The suburban/exurban doughnut in about eight or nine counties almost universally explains Minnesota's rightward shift. They are growing quickly and expanding the state's GOP minority into what is likely to be a majority in a few short years.....but we're not there yet.
An incompetent right-winger like Bush doesn't play in the second-ring suburbs which remain swingy (they went Gore in 2000, but Coleman in 2002). If Kerry can win the second-ring suburbs, as most polls seem to suggest he is, he can offset Bush numbers in the third, fourth and fifth ring suburbs. Last week, it didn't look so certain that Kerry would prevail here, but it clearly does now. You stand almost alone on November 1, 2004 in still saying Bush can win Minnesota. From what I've heard, many poll watchers have switched Minnesota from a yellow battleground state to a blue state today. I get the feeling they're right, barring some highly unexpected national momentum for Bush in the next 24 hours.
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 10:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My guess on the surprise is Virginia going to the K man, and someone in the Bush camp yelling or slapping someone on live television. Oh, and Dan Rather going insane again is expected.
Posted by: Izixs at November 1, 2004 10:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A little aside...
I just looked at the weather in Columbus, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh and rain is predicted for all of them tomorrow. Rain is not predicted for Philapdelphia though, nor for any of the cities I checked in my state of Wisconsin (Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay, Appleton, or LaCrosse). Does anyone have knowledge about how the weather has historically affected turnout or have any feeling about this? I too am expecting record turnouts tomorrow, especially for Kerry. I sincerely hope a little rain doesn't stop too many people.
The surprise I have been thinking of is Arkansas turning blue, but that was based on the idea of a Clinton visit. Did he? Colorado might be more likely, especially if Salazar keeps doing so well.
Posted by: WisVoter at November 1, 2004 11:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Another aside...
I read today that Kerry is planning to spend the night in LaCrosse tonight. And this after a visit to Milwaukee earlier in the day that was followed by visits to other states. If WI doesn't stay blue, it isn't for lack of attention from the candidate. Nor is it for lack of volunteer effort! There have been thousands of volunteers working here. It's just been amazing. Every group imaginable including League of Conservation Voters, MoveOn, ACT, the Democratic Party... you name it! I suppose the Bush camp has had volunteers here too, but I certainly haven't seen them. I find it hard to believe they've had anywhere near the numbers we have. I see a blue WI, and I don't mean sad!
Posted by: WisVoter at November 1, 2004 11:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My electoral surprise is Arkansas going blue.
The larger surprise will be just how HUGE turnout really is. I'm talking 70-80% with lines stretching for miles, polls forced to stay open long after they should have closed. The networks have no idea what is coming.
Posted by: JoshR at November 2, 2004 02:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't buy all this Kerry-will-win-by-a-landslide stuff. This election will be extremely close, and unless we're really, really lucky, we...uh...won't be really, really lucky.
As for surprises?
I personally would love to see an election map that shows kerry winning with assorted clusters of states here and there, while every state the bush takes is adjacent to another bush state. for instance, we take new england/central atlantic area, florida, michigan, minnesota, the pacific states, arkansas, even throw in NC. All these blue states thrown in there randomly in little pockets of the country. Not gonna happen, but oh well.
Realistically, my surprise pick would be A) huge voter turnout, B) kerry taking arkansas, and C) bush taking HI.
Whatever.
Posted by: willt at November 2, 2004 07:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here's an Arkie signing in on Election day. Early voting here shows a massive turnout and our Secretary of State(a Democrat)says to expect
70.3% to 75%. That translate to 1,184,925 to 1,264,145 million voters. My prediction: 1 million
to 1,060,000 a slim Bush Victory; 1,060,000 to
1,150,000 a 65 to 75% chance for Kerry; 1,150,000
to 1,200,000 a like-BUT SLIM-Kerry victory; over
1.2 million a Kerry victory of 1.8-5.5%. My take
on the Presidential race in Arkansas. BTW the most
recent Scientific Poll in Arkansas released yesterday had Bush and Kerry tied at 48% each.
Posted by: Alex Gray at November 2, 2004 11:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment