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Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Predictions, Part 3
Posted by DavidNYCThis is the third and final predictions thread here on the Swing State Project. It's really simple:
What will the final electoral college tally be?
If you need a hand with the numbers, try MyDD's clickable electoral map which shows the states proportionally to their EVs. The LA Times has a nice one as well, using a normal map. And Jim Howard's has long been a favorite of mine because it has complete historical data as well. (To fill it in, click the "advanced features" button and then "copy" the 2000 results to the 2004 map.)
You can also post your results at Race2004.net. So what's it gonna be?
Posted at 12:05 AM in General | Technorati
Comments
Kerry 309
Gore states plus FL,OH,NH,NV minus IA
Posted by: anon at November 2, 2004 12:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Can you f_ing believe it? At the 11th hour the Ohio appeals court rules that its oK for GoP operatives to be present at Urban community polling sites. WOW! I tell you the republicans should be ashame of themselves. What a disgrace to try to supress the democratic turnout. It wont happen. People in Ohio are so pumped up. Did you see the crowd that showed up to see Kerry? Quite impressive. Were ready. I see the intensity of the DEANIACS
Posted by: godfrey at November 2, 2004 02:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
And on a more topical note...
Kerry 322, Bush 216. Kerry holds all the Gore states and takes all the swing states, including Nevada, and my upset special, Arkansas.
Posted by: JoshR at November 2, 2004 02:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NH Villages Already Voted - How do results compare historically?
Please read excerpt, below, from CNN news story this morning. Does anyone have the numbers from '92, 96, and '00 to compare? As we all know, one of the things to watch on election night is how Kerry is doing against historical trends. From CNN this morning (Tuesday) -- In New Hampshire, two hamlets voted shortly after midnight. In what could be a sign of things to come in this neck-and-neck race, residents of Hart's Location gave Bush 16 votes and Kerry 14 votes, The Associated Press reported. Ralph Nader got one vote. In the other hamlet, Dixville Notch, Bush won 19 votes to Kerry's seven votes.
Posted by: Matty at November 2, 2004 06:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Too close to call, even though it could be a blowout in the Electoral College. I remain extremely anxious, for there's no accurate way of truly knowing how the swing states will break. It's all based on hope, faith and gut feelings. Let's just hope we will know before tomorrow, however!
OH, FL, IA, WI, NM-- can go either way
NH, MN, NV, PA, MI, NJ, CO, HI, AR--could surprise us in the end.
One thing for sure: win or lose, the Democrats have got to find a way to be more competitive in the South. The Southern GOP block makes it so much more difficult, with fewer options for victory than the GOP currently enjoys.
Posted by: pepe at November 2, 2004 06:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Reports out here in OH report an early turnout at the polls that is much higher than normal.
And that in spite of the fact that it is pouring rain out here.
Posted by: Jim at November 2, 2004 07:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry 279
Bush 259
Kerry picks up FL & NH
Bush picks up IA & NM
Kerry wins nail bitter in FL & WI.
Bush wins nail bitter in IA, NM & OH.
Posted by: DFuller at November 2, 2004 08:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry's 305 to Bush's 233
Kerry sweeps the Big Three, as well as New Hampshire and Nevada. Bush takes Wisconsin and one EV from Maine.
Posted by: Dale at November 2, 2004 09:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Plus New Mexico.
Posted by: Dale at November 2, 2004 09:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For Kerry.
Posted by: Dale at November 2, 2004 09:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
FYI: When the polls close.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Viewers%20Guide.htm
Posted by: DFuller at November 2, 2004 09:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry takes Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada and holds all of the Gore states. I'm still reluctant to call Florida for Kerry, but I hope to be proven wrong.
Posted by: Mark at November 2, 2004 09:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry: 272
Bush: 266
Of the swing states...
Kerry takes: FL, IA, MI, MN, NH, PA
Bush takes: CO, HI, NM, NV, OH, WI
P.S. - I have enjoyed reading this site from time to time this year. This is my first and only post.
Posted by: Matt C at November 2, 2004 10:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment