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Monday, November 01, 2004
Prof. Abramowitz: Bush's Situation is "Dire"
Posted by DavidNYCProf. Alan Abramowitz over at the EDM blog crunches the same numbers that I did and comes to a very similar conclusion:
George Bush's situation in all four of these key battleground states [FL, MI, OH & PA] is dire. His support is well below 50 percent in all of them and he is currently trailing John Kerry in 3 of the 4. A clean sweep of all four states by John Kerry is a distinct possibility.
Looking at just the polls since October 15th, the good professor computes the following averages:
|
State |
No. of Polls |
Kerry Led |
Bush Led |
Tied |
Average |
|
FL |
11 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
47.5 B, 46.5 K, 1.2 N |
|
MI |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
47.2 K, 44.2 B, 1.0 N |
|
OH |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
48.3 K, 47.2 B |
|
PA |
11 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
48.7 K, 46.8 B |
Though Kerry has averaged one point behind Bush in Florida, Abramowitz thinks that "huge turnout" tomorrow will push the state blue. I've always, always been skeptical of claims that "this time, turnout will be enormous," but this is finally one year where I'm prepared to believe it. And if turnout is big, we win.
But we still gotta make sure that happens.
Posted at 02:06 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
The Intensity down in Florida is massive guys! You can't capture it in any poll. Kerry will carry the "Sunshine" states 27 electoral votes. THe republicans were stupid to start this early voting presidence. They will pay for it with at least a 3% victory by Kerry.
Posted by: godfrey at November 1, 2004 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I must admit, I had never even heard of the concept of early voting until this election season. (Apart from absentee ballots, of course.) Seems like it is strongly favoring us, so far.
Posted by: DavidNYC at November 1, 2004 02:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It worried me to learn that early voting was Republican initiated. It is new for this election, right? I wonder if they have a plan to steal some of the early votes somehow. Did we have our election protection monitors at the polling places during the early voting period? Are there guantees that there can be no tampering with the counts? This really worries me.
Posted by: Randy C at November 1, 2004 03:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Radical Right radio spins today.
I heard today that the Democrats are in trouble because most of the states being visited today were "Gore States". I laughed:
1) PA, MI, & HI. Those states aren't going red.
2) IA, MN, WI - Add the three together and you get the same EV's as FL.
3) NM will likely go red and NH blue. That is -1 to us.
4) That leaves OH.
We got 232 EV���s secured and they have 232. The ones that will decide the election are IA, MN, WI, FL & OH which totals 74. Of those, I think MN & WI are defiantly trending for Kerry. That puts Kerry at 252. That means Kerry must take FL or OH to win.
Posted by: DFuller at November 1, 2004 04:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Early voting favors the Dems. But, did you see that story from Texas, wher the woman voted Democratic, and her Presidential vote was changed to Bush?
Posted by: Rock_nj at November 1, 2004 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Early voting isn't new. Colorado had it in 2000, as well.
Posted by: Ilana at November 1, 2004 07:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NC had early voting in 2000 as well. The difference here is that nearly 1 million North Carolinians took advantage of it this time(as opposed to 300,000 4 years ago). Lines have been 3-4 hours long in Charlotte. The only thing that scares me a little is that lines were so long that a lot of people turned around and went home. I hope they show up again tomorrow.
A bright spot - polls of early voters in Charlotte has shown Kerry ahead. For those of you outside the state, Charlotte is VERY conservative. Who knows we might do OK here.
Posted by: Jason - Charlotte at November 1, 2004 08:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If Charlotte is truly voting more for Kerry than for Bush, than Kerry will easily win NC. This also means throw out all of the polls, as this would be a huge surprise. I just can't believe what Jason writes is true--but I hope it is. We over here in the NC's liberal oasis known as the Triangle are definitely doing our part to oust Bush.
Posted by: pepe at November 1, 2004 09:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock, what's the scoop on the woman in Texas who who voted Kerry and had it changed to Bush
Posted by: Mark at November 1, 2004 09:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment