Swing State Project

The Democrats have a few options. First, Stark County Democratic Party Chairman Johnnie Maier seems to be the favorite to emerge from the primary if he runs. He has had designs on the seat for some time now, patiently waiting until Regula retired.

As the party chair, his name recognition in Stark County will start out high, and his tenure in Ohio' State House should bolster his credibility and ability to fundraise.

That being said, there are quite a few people, Democrats, who would like to take Maier out in the primary. During the 2004 presidential race with a spotlight on Stark County, Maier managed to piss off almost every outside organization that came in to help the Kerry campaign. His selective support of Democratic candidates running for local office lost him future support as well.

Then there is option number 2. I know these people personally, so let me start by saying this is purely speculative...

Recently elected to a first term in the Ohio State House of Representatives, William J. Healy II would be a formidable challenge for a Democratic field and whatever Republican emerges from the other side's contest.

Healy has great name recognition in Stark County and his father was a well respected local politician. In 2004, Healy trounced his opponent Mandwell Patterson in the State House race, earning around 70% of the total vote. Healy has a great team around him as well, if and when his aspirations for the future manifest themselves.

Then there is Jeff Seemann. Seemann was the candidate who squared off against Regula in 2004. Even though he only garnered 34% of the vote at the end of the day, his campaigns use of the Internet received world-wide acclaim from L.A. to Australia.

Seemann will have to nurture the grassroots support he cultivated during his quixotic 2004 campaign if he is to be taken seriously in attempt to represent the party in 2006.

With a field of prominent Democrats beginning to jockey for position, the road ahead might be a long one for Seemann who has already declared his intention of running for the U.S. House again. In the post, Seemann recognizes the field will be a crowded one. The only way Seemann gets out of the primary is if he has the full support of an Internet community that carried his campaign as far as it went in 2004.

For the Republicans, three names appear on most people's short list.

State Senator Kurt Schuring: Schuring was chairman of the Bush/Cheney campaign in 2004. He is a well respected State Senator by people on both sides of the aisle. There was a point in time where some Democrats believed he was going to switch to the "blue team," but that hasn't happened yet. At the end of the day, some pretty nasty, and still private, opposition research will doom this candidate's bid.

Stark County Commissioner Richard Regula: Richard is the son of current Congressman Ralph Regula. His last name recognition would allow him to mount a serious bid. After all, it carried him into the Commissioner post.

Regula would seem to be the anointed favorite by the Republican Party faithful. It is that belief that led many to conclude Schuring was going to switch parties and run as a Democrat for the seat in 2006.

Scott Oelslager, Ohio State House of Representatives: Oelslager is a pretty moderate Republican as well. In 2004, he broke with his party to quash major "tort reform" legislation. He is another well-liked Republican that will fare well in a labor heavy, yet socially conservative part of the Buckeye State.

At the end of the day, I would have to say this seat is lean Republican, assuming Regula does retire. The reason it wouldn't lean into the Democratic column is Chairman Johnnie Maier's fault. In 2004, Democrats had a good opportunity to condition 16th district voters to vote against Ralph Regula; Lord knows there were enough reasons to do so.

Jeff Seemann generated the seed capital necessary to make the race a competitive one, but the local party dropped the ball. They failed to support the campaign in any substantive way, and Regula was elected in an overwhelming fashion once again.

If Johnnie Maier would have the foresight to get involved with the campaign, he would have not only been earning votes for Seemann in 2004, but conditioning voters for himself, in 2006.