Swing State Project

1.) Congressman Sherrod Brown (NO CHANGE)

The nomination for governor is still his if he wants it. The only thing Coleman's announcement changes is that Brown might now be forced into an early decision. He orginally stated that he would have liked to wait six months before declaring his intentions one way or the other.

2.) Congressman Ted Strickland (NO CHANGE)

The Senate nomination is probably his if he wants it as well. He has already made it clear he is not running for governor, swinging his endorsement to Congressman Sherrod Brown. He then crytpically told reporters that he would be running for "federal" office in 2006. Apparently people like to take their sweet time making decisions in Ohio.

With one exception...

3.) Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman (UP)

Coleman rises simply because he officially makes the decision to run. That's great, but if Sherrod runs, Coleman gets stomped. Unfortunately Congressman Brown has a history of waffling on these statewide decisions, eventually bowing out of potential runs.

If Congressman Brown keeps people waiting for his decision, and eventually decides not to run--the nomination will likely go to Coleman. My displeasure is not that I think Coleman would be a bad candidate, I just really like Sherrod, Dammit!

4.) Jerry Springer (THE WILD CARD)

Who knows what Jerry wants to run for in 2006. Many would like to see him keep raising money for candidates and keep his name off the ballot. I don't think that will be the case--Jerry is running for something.

In 2004 he seriously explored a potential bid for US Senate against George Voinovich. He eventually stepped aside for Eric Fingerhut's failed run. But the year is 2006, and all indications are that Jerry is thinking more about running for governor than he is thinking about giving the senate another go. I personally wish it was the other way around. It will take a "different" kind of candidate to beat Mike DeWine, and with Jerry's name ID and ability to self-finance the race, I think he actually has the best chance against the sitting Senator.

5.) Akron Mayor Don Plusquellic (DOWN)

This annoucenment makes it almost official, he will not be running for Governor (or US Senate). This might be the only bright spot of the Coleman decision; Plusquellic is now freed up to run for Secretary of State or Auditor (or Lt. Governor). I am not sure if that interests the Akron Mayor. Time will tell...

6.) Former Ohio Atty General Lee Fisher (POOT)

And no thank you...

Fisher has already run for governor once and lost to Bob Taft, the current (and worst ever) governor of Ohio. In fact, Mayor Michael Coleman was Fisher's Lt. Gov. on that ticket. I would think that Coleman's decision today also came after consultation with Fisher.

So, without further ado, my (ever changing) Ohio predictions:

Governor: Sherrod Brown vs. Michael Coleman

Senate: Jerry Springer runs unopposed in the primary

Ted Strickland: Runs for re-election in his congressional district

Don Plusquellic: Runs as Lt. Gov on Coleman's ticket -- if not -- runs for Sec. of State.

Fisher: Stays home

State Auditor: Democrats field no credible candidate

Sec. of State: Eric Fingerhut (big time guess here) -- If Plusquellic runs, Fingerhut stays home and watches Buckeye football with Fisher on Saturdays.