Swing State Project

« Bush's "budget man" hates the troops... | Main | Hastert to Retire? IL-14 in 2006 »

Monday, February 07, 2005

Spitzer Crushing Pataki but Behind Giuliani in New Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Siena College has a new poll out covering my favorite race, NY Gov. Here's how things look (registered voters, no trendlines):

Spitzer: 51
Pataki: 35
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±3.9%)

For a race that's almost two years away, 15% undecided seems remarkably low - a product, surely, of the high name-recognition that both men, particularly Pataki, have. In fact, that really tells the whole story here: Spitzer's favorable/unfavorable/unsure rating is 48-17-34; Pataki's is 39-45-16. With 34% DK, Spitzer has room for improvement. Pataki, glub-glub-glubbing with a negative rating and few undecideds, has little room for movement, especially when (in a separate question), 57% say they'd like "someone else" to be governor.

The Spitzer-Giuliani matchup provides a different picture but actually tells a similar story:

Spitzer: 40
Giuliani: 49
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Giuliani, over three years after 9/11, still has impressive favorables: 61-28 (with just 11% unsure). This certainly is what accounts for Spitzer's weaker performance against Rudy than against George. But the key difference here, as I noted above, is that Spitzer has room for improvement. Until and unless the GOP starts running a Swift Boat-style campaign against Eliot, his numbers should only get better. (Except among Wall Street whiners, it's hard for an AG by himself to drive up his own negatives.)

The bottom line: If it's Spitzer vs. Giuliani, we will have a serious horserace on our hands. (That's a big "if" - I don't think Giuliani has shown much interest in running.) But I'm confident that Eliot can go toe-to-toe with Rudy, who will be five years out of office by the time election day 2006 rolls around - and 13 years removed from his last serious election campaign (in 1993 vs. Dinkins). He'll be rusty, and Eliot will be fiesty. I'll take that matchup.

(Thanks to NYCO.)

Posted at 05:26 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Technorati

Comments

Wow. That is trouble for Pataki. If I'm Pataki I run for Senate and hope that an anti-Hillary backlash begins to form. Pataki has already been a three term governor.. everyone says Pataki has national ambitions.. if he does, he needs to make that jump.

As for Giuliani, why would he jump in? If he wants to President, what does he have to gain by running for Governor of New York? He's already America's name. He doesn't need this as a stepping stone and he doesn't need to get muddied up in a Senate race with Hillary.

Posted by: Falcon4e at February 8, 2005 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Except... check out this Q-Poll from December:

Clinton: 58
Pataki: 36

Talk about getting your ass handed to you. AFAIK, Clinton's approval rating has actually gone up over time in NY. I think it would be hard to drive her negatives up again at this late, late, late date - I mean, she's the ultimate in known quantities. In other words, I think Pataki is toast no matter which office he seeks.

And as for Rudy, you're probably right. As I've said, I don't think he's shown a strong inclination to run. I mean, Eliot already declared a couple months ago, and there has been no apparent pressure on Pataki to decide if he's going to seek a fourth term - the kind of pressure you'd expect if Giuliani were eagerly waiting in the wings.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 8, 2005 05:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Hillary has done a good job. I don't see her losing either way, and Pataki could be toast in terms of coattails anyway. But what I'm saying is, scandals pop out.. things happen over the course of the campaign. If Pataki beats Clinton, he becomes a hero to the Republicans... if he loses to Spitzer, his career may be over. I think he should take the jump.

Again, Giuliani is in the thick of the '08 running for the Republicans (even though ultimately I don't think he'll win the nomination)... I dont see why he would involve himself a bitter battle against Hillary. It'll only hurt him.

Posted by: Falcon4e at February 8, 2005 06:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment