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Friday, June 17, 2005

CA-48: Special Election Polling

Posted by Tim Tagaris

So, it's closer than I thought it might be:

Conducted by Probolsky Research (R). June 10-14, 2005. N=325 likely special election voters districtwide. (MoE +/- 5.5%)

John Graham (D): 22%

John Campbell (R): 31%
Marilyn Brewer (R): 8%

Don't Know/Undecided: 39%

The Democrat, John Graham is a university professor. For the Republicans, John Campbell is a State Senator and Marilyn Brewer is a business woman.

Posted at 02:29 AM in 2005 Elections, California, Polls, Special Elections | Technorati

Comments

What a joke, Tim.

Graham's not in the race. No Democrat is yet. I hear rumors that a person is meeting with the DCCC next week. Graham raised a total of $40 last time turning down all campaign contributions. There was no campaign. And that was his third try I think.....done...stick a fork in him.

As you know I've been an advocate for this race...UNTIL...Campbell became the prohibitive favorite for the Republicans.

He has already announced $2 million of his own personal money for the race and would likely be backed by The New Majority, a new Republican Organization made up of Millionaires that is trying to push the OC Republican Party to the middle and away from 'social issues' as a mainstay. They can raise mulit-millions should the choose to do so. Brewer would also be a possibility for them but she's got a tremendous financial disadvantage. I'm surprised she's stayed in so far.

Marlyn Brewer, former Assemblyperson and short-term Assembly Speaker, is a legitimate candidate and has announced she will seed her campaign fund with $150K of her own money. She is moderate and a solid candidate. But a chance....?

Campbell has ton's of money and a background that is based in a business that thrived on skinny margins and intense, very intense, competitor analysis.

No one...Republican or Democrat,...is going to sneak under the radar on this thing. Campbell is simply too good at competitor analysis.

And head-to head in an abbreviated campaign (50-56 days until the Primary)...Campbell has too much money, influence and backing to loose. And I think it will be won at the Primary with low turnout.

I like Brewer.. I wish she stood a chance. She'd be a great choice.

If we bring as much money to the race as Campbell...at least we can make it a horserace. But I doubt that will happen.

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at June 17, 2005 09:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CORRECTION:

Brewer was Assemblywoman from this area but not one time Assembly Speaker. I was getting her confused with another person in OC who got royally run out of office by her party.

And Addition:
I hope the DCCC finds a good person to run and that they really back that person. That would be great. I'm just doubtful of the backing and funding.

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at June 17, 2005 09:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In unrelated news, Loveland, CO Republican and former state senator Bill Kauffman announced his intention to challenge Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO, 4th district) in the Republican primary. Apparently earlier there was talk of his running as an independent. Musgrave is known for her focus on banning gay marriage and instituting theocratic policies; she eaked out a victory of 51% in 2004 against a green and the Democratic challenger, Stan Matsunaka, who enterred relatively late in the game for a rematch with Musgrave. She is listed as one of the Republican's top ten most vulnerale by her own party.

I hope the Republican primary will show independent voters that even Republicans are uncomfortable with Ms. Musgrave. I would tend to doubt a moderate Republican can beat a sitting incumbent in their primary.

I think this district will be one to watch if Democrats are serious about taking back the house and making gains in the new West.

Posted by: mcittone at June 18, 2005 11:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment