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Thursday, August 04, 2005

CA-48: Open Thread Question

Posted by Bob Brigham

If we can get 48% of the vote in the OH-02, can anyone give me a single reason why we can't get 50% +1 in Orange County?

Posted at 10:52 PM in Special Elections | Technorati

Comments

Sure there is no candidate, but forget the candidate, we have a campaign to win.

Posted by: Bob Brigham at August 4, 2005 11:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It will be difficult to duplicate the resources that the netroots community provided for Hackett though, that is significant I think.

Posted by: PaDem at August 4, 2005 11:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I personally live several miles away from the 48th, and I can tell you, it's a LOT more welcoming to Democrats than the OH-2. While there are few Hispanic's here (they make the majority of democrats in the OC) there are a lot of security moms, who are growing tired of this war. More importantly though, there are TONS of teachers, firefighters, cops, and nurses that absolutely despise Arnold. Attaching whoever the GOP nominee is to SchwarzeNazi would be a lot more effective that linking them with Bush.

PS I haven't had the chance to say thank you to Tim and Bob yet, for their great work with the Hackett campaign, so I'll do it right now. THANK YOU SO MUCH! You showed we can compete anywhere!

Posted by: jkfp2004 at August 5, 2005 01:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

there are huge differences between CA 48 and OH 2. OH 2 had rural, farm districts which were very religious, but economically disadvantaged. we always lose on the social issues out there but rural folks like plainspoken straightshooters.

CA48 is just full of McMansions and wealthy white folks (along with some hispanic, but i think this district is mostly Irvine, Newport Beach area which is rich rich rich). precisely the type of people who voted for Schmidt over Hackett.

doesn't mean we shouldn't try. i think Irvine might have a Dem mayor right now??

Posted by: ihlin at August 5, 2005 10:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Save social security and restore Medicare and get rid of the means test.

Make some phone calls and send some emails

from http://www.boycott-republicans.com

http://www.cafepress.com/revolution09

Posted by: buckfush at August 5, 2005 11:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is a very RED district, but I believe many factors might conspire in a Democratic Candidates favor. Schwarzenegger is highly unpopular! The special election he has called is seen as unnecessary and costly. Teachers, nurses, and other public sector groups are mobilizing for political action in this election. If we can find a candidate who can plug into this dissatisfaction the chance of victory is much better, and the volunteers would be readily available. If you take a look at the Bush and Schwarzenegger poll numbers even in this red district they are not that good. The war is increasingly unpopular. Los Angeles and Orange County residents are unhappy about transportation problems. Remember! ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL, the candidate must remind the residents of the districts problems. The Republican candidates will be trying to out conservative each other and wrap themselves in Bush’s arms. It may not be a good time to do it, at this time.

We need ONE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE not a dozen who split the vote.

In a California election to replace a congressman if one candidate receives a majority of the votes (50 percent plus one vote), no special general election will be held. In the event of a runoff, the two candidates with the most votes will face each other. There will be a number of Republicans running for the open seat. They may split the vote very broadly among themselves. They are Marilyn Brewer, two Johnson’s Bill and John, Mimi Waters, Todd Spizter, the volatile Robert K. Dornan, and the Minute Man border project leader Jim Gilchrist. A lone Democrat would make the runoff and with the right message do as well as Hackett.

Contest every election in every district even when it might seem hopeless. You will win some once in a while. Let' try anyway.

Posted by: highland at August 5, 2005 01:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If there are many bloggers out there like me, I know that if we can field a strong candidate in CA-48, they will do as well or better than Hackett, in terms of net fundraising and vocal support.

Contributions:
First - Dean primary campaign
Second - Dean Primary Campaign
Third - DFA post-primary, pre-Nov2
Fourth - MoveOn before Nov2
Fifth - DNC, "Howard Dean Speaks For ME!"
Sixth - Paul Hackett

Before Dean got the chair, the chances of me goving to the Democrats was zero. After the chair, I would have guessed that I would only gove to the DNC or DFA.

I've been looking at some candidates, but very casually. Hackett caught blogfire, and suddenly I'm on the prowl for special election candidates to give my pittance to.

I'm just guessing that I'm not unique. I'm guessing that there are a LOT of people being permanently brought into the political arena bit by bit. Individually we amount to very little, but if there are indeed a lot... I can see a shift coming.

I'm hope I'm not alone out here.

Posted by: teknofyl at August 5, 2005 04:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hi everybody...

We need to look down south a little more to CA-50. That's a real chance to grab a seat from the Republicans...remember Duke Cunningham's ethics problems and subsquent resignation? It put the democratic candidate, Francine Busby, in a great position to win. There are a ton of Republicans fighting over the nominations; meanwhile, Francine has 15 months to fundraise and craft a strong, progressive message. This is a district that Feinstein wins, Boxer ties and John Kerry took 45% in--all without campaigning here. There's no way we can let this one go back to the GOP.

best,

t

Posted by: tim at August 5, 2005 06:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment