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Tuesday, August 02, 2005

OH-2: Cook Political Report Lowers the Bar

Posted by Tim Tagaris

From the Cook Political Report:

If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.

Talk about lowering the bar for Ohio's Republican Party. To say that a 6 to 9 point spread is indicative of "wind but no hurricane" is ridiculous. Anything within 10, in a district that has gone recently gone Republican by more than fifty percentage points, shows the ship has already sunk for the Ohio Republican Party--they have until Nov. 2006 to salvage whateer wreckage they can.

OH-2 Past Election Results:
2004: 72% to 28%
2002: 74% to 26%
2000: 74% to 23%
1998: 76% to 24%

Whatever happens here, the big story is how the grassroots of the Democratic Party competed, outraised, and outmanned the NRCC. We forced them to blow a ton of money in a district that should have gone red by 50 points. This race is a complete validation of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy and our ability to compete in any race, at any level, in any location across the country.

The mere fact that the GOP D.C. re-enforcements have been called in at such a high level has got to be a major dissapointment to all "yellow elephants" across the country. This race should put all Democrats and Republicans statewide on notice. Bob Ney, we are coming for you. Ralph Regula, your seat is no longer safe. Steve LaTourette, we will remember your CAFTA flip-flop. It's a brand new ball-game, and it all started in OH-2--the last place anyone thought it would.

Posted at 11:12 AM in Ohio | Technorati

Comments

regardless the outcome i'm encouraged. i went down to canvass and saw the great support and energy from all over the state.

Posted by: ericv at August 2, 2005 11:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't know who will win or lose but my hopes are high for Paul Hackett.

Also, I do know what the last vote be. I am going to wait until 6:59:59... than I'll part for the party... I'll celebrate a victory... In this election all Americans won. It has opened us up to unity. It is what we needed.

Peter Deane

Posted by: The Smoke eter at August 2, 2005 12:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Do we have the latest polls on this race? And will there be exit polling done?

If there is exit polling done, we need to capture the EARLY exit polls, before they are "reconciled" to the reported vote count.

If the exit polls and the reported vote is off by more than 5%, we can assume that the Republican party has been up to its old tricks. They are NOT going to want this race to be close, and will do whatever they have to do to make sure it isn't. The fact is, knowing that it won't be within (even a corrupt) recount margin, allows them to cheat their asses off.

We must be looking for signs of this. We can't win in 2006 if we don't have fair vote counting.

Charlie L
Portland, OR
(but my wife hails from Columbus)
CLL2001@Gmail.com

Posted by: CyberChas at August 2, 2005 12:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So Charlie Cook is not as enthusiastic as you. Why would you think he would be? Your passion and that of the campaign has succeeded beyond all expectations, especially by raising the profile of this special election. I bet that no matter what the exact results are, there is a strong chance that the MSM will see it as signs of bad things to come for the Ohio and Washington majority party. Most important is that the momentum continue after today.

Posted by: CTdem01 at August 2, 2005 12:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Congressional District 2, Ohio - Fact Sheet:

Median household income (dollars) - 46,813

Median family income (dollars) - 56,695

Per capita income (dollars) - 25,560
======================================

What I will never understand is why families with low/middle income will always vote Republican.

Forget all the political talking points. Just figure out what party will put more money in your pocket – and they will find out that it's not the Republicans. If you ignore the political rhetoric and say:

"Now what party will benefit me in terms of money? Is it the big business Republican Party or the party that represents low/middle income families? Who has MY best interests (jobs, money, etc.) at heart?"

To me, it's a no-brainer. I wouldn't vote Republican even if I made a million dollars. But while our household income isn't considered low or middle, most of my friends are in that category - and they vote Republican. I tell them all the time, "You do realize, don't you, that the President you voted for and support passed tax cuts that don't even benefit you - but they do me?" I find that extremely ironic.

And when I start talking about how Bush wants to take away their Social Security and turn them into private accounts, how insurance and drugs are increasing, the gas prices are soaring, how their jobs are leaving the US, how their children are getting left behind in school, how this "war on terror" is now being labeled something totally different - now with the glaring implication that it'll never end, and how Bush's "big business" interests aren't THEIR interests and was NEVER their interests - they get positively depressed.

Do I feel sorry for them? Well, kinda of. But I TOLD them and then BEGGED them not to vote for Bush in '04. I warned them what was going on under their noses - and they would come to regret their thoughtless vote - but they didn't listen.

So what do I tell them now? Nothing. I just thank them for the money they are contributing to my household income.

Posted by: Alishye at August 2, 2005 12:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Correction... the last vote will be cast at 7:30... that's when I'll punch it in...

Hoping for Hackett!

Peter Deane

No matter the weather the fight will go on!

Posted by: The Smoke eter at August 2, 2005 12:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

GOOD LUCK PAUL!

I sincerely hope the voter turn-out is huge! It's great to see an "everyday citizen" running in a campaign instead of another career politician.

You've got the GOP, the Bush White House, and Jean Schmidt feeling the heat of your intense campaigning.

The tide is turning and every Republican political should look to Ohio as an example of what happens when you ignore what the people really want of their representatives.

They shouldn't feel secure or think they are guaranteed a "victory" in '06 - that was Jean Schmidt's mistake.

Posted by: Alishye at August 2, 2005 12:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Alishye, to understand why people don't vote their economic interest, you should read some of George Lakoff's work.

Posted by: ericv at August 2, 2005 12:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can we please target Deborah Pryce in Columbus, who pretty much signifies what is wrong with the Republicans today? She needs to go.

Posted by: yk at August 2, 2005 12:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ericv,

George Lakoff is a linguistics professor - right? I just googled him.

I'll try to find some of his work and read it, but until then, why don't people vote according to their economic interest?

I'll bet their religious views have a lot to do with it, huh? Conservatism = religion. That's how I figure it, just by observing how my friends and family vote.

Posted by: Alishye at August 2, 2005 01:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

yeah, pick up "don't think of an elephant"...it's the shortest read among his other stuff. Basically "values" trump the pocketbook and neocons have been superior in capturing the values debate. Lakoff has a parental analogy that goes a long way to explain it (strict father frame versus nurturant parent frame - guess which we are ;-). But you are right that religious issues do factor in.

bottom line is we progressives have to realize that people act in this way and stop beating our heads against the brick wall of "voter's best interest". voter's don't necessarily want to be given the facts, they want to be appealed to, taken care of, and they want to align with a greater "cause"...yes, even at the expense of their economic best interests.

for starters, we should embrace religion and talk about how un-religious it is to start pre-emptive wars based on lies...or bombing women and children in the name of democracy...or...or...the list goes on. it's the framing that counts, and this is the essential point of Lakoff.

another great read is "Start Making Sense" put out by Hazen and company over at alternet.org

Posted by: ericv at August 2, 2005 01:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ericv,

Thanks for the links. It sounds very interesting and something perhaps all Democrats should be reading so we can refine our message and learn how to communicate to voters. I will certainly be getting my copy of "Start Making Sense"!

Posted by: Alishye at August 2, 2005 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, I highly recommend both actually. In Delaware, OH we will soon be gathering a group of progressives and Democrats to screen the DVD version of Lakoff's work along with talk about the book and "Start Making Sense". Having just finished the latter, I can say it has a wealth of information on what needs to happen post-04! Happy reading!

Posted by: ericv at August 2, 2005 02:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Charlie Cook, he's that "non-partisan" DC insider, feller that shows up on NBC spouting Convential Wisdom and what not. Yeah, from not breaking even 30 percent, and he thinks 54.5-45.5 would mean a small disturbance in the force?

The DC Beltway/MSM/Big Media, they really need to go away on a rocket ship to the sun.

Alas, the Democrats/Progressives are too often like the dogs in that Pooch Cafe comic strip and their "Catapult all cats into the sun" Club. But there's always hope, and Maj. Hackett has certainly given us some of that.

One question. Should he run for the Senate, as many suggest, or should he take that useless stepford gopper down come Nov 06? Does he have the tools and skills and wherewithal to run a statewide race, and/or are there better qualified fightin Democrats that can take on the Senate race more effectively?

You heard me, useless trolls, FIGHTIN' DEMOCRATS!

Posted by: Duckman GR at August 3, 2005 12:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Save social security and restore Medicare and get rid of the means test.

Make some phone calls and send some emails

from http://www.boycott-republicans.com

http://www.cafepress.com/revolution09

Posted by: buckfush at August 5, 2005 11:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment