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Tuesday, September 27, 2005

2006 Senate: Advantage Democrats

Posted by Bob Brigham

Charlie Cook in the (subscription only) National Journal:

In the Senate, though, Democrats need a net gain of six seats to win the majority, so logically they need to put six GOP seats in play.

They have accomplished that; in fact, seven Republican-held seats are now in play. They are the seats held by Republican Sens. Jon Kyl of Arizona, Jim Talent of Missouri, Conrad Burns of Montana, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee.

Democrats have credible candidates in all but one of those states, Ohio.

It appears likely that their nominee will be Paul Hackett, the lawyer and Iraq War veteran who came close to picking off a special election in Ohio's 2nd congressional district against now-Rep. Jean Schmidt.

If GOP Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi retires, as many expect he will, that would set up yet another competitive Republican-held Senate seat, bringing the total to eight.

The establishment perception is changing:

The party getting pinched usually wins few, if any, challenger races and loses the lion's share of the competitive open seats as well.

The point of all of this is to serve as a reminder that while Democrats certainly need a political equivalent of a tsunami to take control of the House, it is possible.

But the size and power of the wave necessary to flip the Senate might be substantially less than commonly believed.

The backlash storyline is developing. While I have complete faith in the Democratic establishment's ability to waste this opportunity, the opportunity is real.

The key is for individuals to get involved now so that the influence of the DC Losers' Club is minimized. Campaigns of people, for people can help us seize the moment and leverage the backlash. The time to get involved is now. Every district, every state, every day.

Posted at 02:39 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate | Technorati

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Bob Brigham points to a heartening analysis of the 2006 Senate races by Charlie Cook's (National Journal, subscription only): In the Senate, though, Democrats need a net gain of six seats to win the majority, so logically they need to [Read More]

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Comments

For Trent Lott's seat, I nominate Ken (?) Marble, the Emergency Room physician who gave Cheney a piece of his own medicine on the air (Go Fuck yourself, Mr. Cheney!) and, from what I hear, eviscerated every rightwing talking point when he was interviewed on the radio.

Posted by: verasoie at September 28, 2005 01:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

well I do think beating Trent would be a fairly easy thing to do but it would take a little tv time i.e. $.

Posted by: BenMarbleMD at March 2, 2006 01:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment