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Sunday, October 30, 2005

NJ-Gov: Can You Say "Outlier"?

Yep, I thought you could. A few weeks ago, a bunch of people started getting worried that Doug Forrester was surging - that the race for the NJ governor's mansion was really getting tight. This belief was based on exactly two polls out of many. Quinnipiac showed a four-point spread - but came back down to earth with a seven-pointer recently. The most "alarming," though, was Marist, which showed (depending upon which group of voters you looked at) things as close as one point. Another week, another poll, and boy have things changed (likely voters, early Oct. in parens):

Corzine: 50 (44)
Forrester: 40 (43)
Other: 1 (<1)
Undecided: 9 (13)
(MoE: ±5%)

There. Feel better now? Marist now joins every other independent pollster in showing a 7+ point lead for Corzine. (And four recent surveysm including this one, show 9 or 10 point leads.) Now we can all sleep better.

(Thanks to Taegan Goddard.)

Posted at 02:25 AM in 2005 Elections, New Jersey | Technorati

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Comments

I think this is because you can't claim to be a moderate on the issues when you have such a staunch position against stem-cell research funding. You can't move backwards when you're running in New Jersey.

Posted by: Kyle Raccio at October 30, 2005 10:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment