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Tuesday, October 11, 2005

NJ-Gov: FDU Poll Puts Corzine up Eight

Posted by DavidNYC

Farleigh Dickinson University offers a new poll in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest (likely voters, late Sept. in parens):

Corzine: 48 (48)
Forrester: 40 (38)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4%)

Note: This poll includes "leaners." Without leaners, it's 44-38 Corzine.

There was much gnashing of teeth just yesterday when a new Marist poll showed Corzine up just 47-45. I don't think it's wishful thinking to call that poll an outlier, however - take a look at this comprehensive list of polls. All but one poll has shown Corzine with a lead of 7 to 10 points over the past few months, with one exception (a Quinnipiac poll from a few weeks ago that showed Corzine up 48-44).

I suppose it's possible that Marist and Quinnipiac are right and that FDU, the Star-Ledger, Rasmussen, and Monmouth University are all wrong. But Marist has only polled this race once, and two prior Q-Polls both showed 10-point leads for Corzine. The weight of the evidence, as they say, seems to be with the latter group rather than the former.

I don't doubt that things could tighten up, especially since NJ is one of only two statehouses in play this fall. And NJ's had its share of close, nasty races. But it is a solidly blue state, and Doug Forrester, with 96% name recognition at this point, would need basically all of the undecideds to go his way if this poll is accurate. He can hang his hat on Marist and Quinnipiac if he wants, but I still say he's got an uphill battle.

P.S. Bush's approval rating is at an astounding 33-66 in NJ. Corzine better not let Forrester - and the citizens of New Jersey - forget it.

The happy couple - Bush & Forrester

Posted at 04:58 PM in 2005 Elections, New Jersey | Technorati

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Comments

There's been a steady upward trajectory for Forrester in these polls and it's getting to the point where I'm getting nervous. If Forrester wins, does Corzine get to keep his Senate seat?

Posted by: Mark at October 11, 2005 05:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am not so worried - NJ even managed to give us agita during the presidential election, but still wound up +7. Yeah, way too close for comfort, but that's a partisan index of +10, and Bush is a lot less popular now than he was then.

And yes, I think Corzine does get to keep his seat if he loses - just like Anthony Weiner gets to keep his seat in Congress after losing the Dem mayoral primary.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 11, 2005 06:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One explanation for the numbers tightening up is the visit of Bill Clinton last week. Yes Clinton is liked by Democrats, but he also shows that he is still widely hated by Republicans.

Remember of all 9 of the candidates Clinton campaigned for in 2004, including Kerry, all of them lost.

Posted by: jackbourassa at October 11, 2005 08:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jack:

1) Who were those nine candidates? Were they all challengers? What percentage of challengers usually unseats incumbents? (The answer is very, very low.)

2) Correlation does not equal causation. Do you have anything which might prove out that connection?

3) Clinton's favorables have consistently gone up and his unfavorables have consistently gone down ever since he left office, according to both Fox and Gallup. Thus, the whole "Bill Clinton is toxic" idea loses force every passing year.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 11, 2005 09:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment