Swing State Project

Carter seems to understand the dynamic of the over-reach and will be able to receive the national support necessary for an upset:

Jack Carter is a U.S. Navy veteran who has spent most of his life in politics but much of it offstage. He has maintained national Democratic Party contacts and has networked with local officials. He gave national stump speeches on behalf of his father, the Georgia governor who campaigned for nearly two years in a strategy that culminated in the upset in 1976 of President Ford.

It would be easy to write off Carter before he's written himself in. Nevada has rarely been kind to candidates voters perceive as wealthy outsiders. Former casino executive Tom Gallagher, for instance, was a bright guy with an impeccable education who was battered when he challenged Jon Porter for his congressional seat. In keeping with tradition, Porter exploited Gallagher's lack of time in the state.

But neither Gallagher nor the rest offered Jack Carter's vast contacts and background in politics.

Asked to describe his political philosophy, he offers, "I think of myself as just being responsible, fiscally and socially. I want the government to stay out of people's pockets as much as it can and to stay out of their private lives."

In addition to nurturing the backlash against the over-reach, Carter is also positioning himself as a solution to Republican incompetence:

Carter said he decided to run in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He said he was offended by the federal government's response to the disaster.

"I'm more concerned than ever with the way that the country is headed," Carter said.

In making his case, Carter appears to understand the quality of a good sound-bite:

He said he is a social liberal with conservative Southern roots and a business background that taught him "you pay for what you spend."

The latest polls show Ensign only having a 53% approval rating, which is probably falling with every Republican blunder. More importantly, Bush has a 56% DISapproval rating which will continue to drag down Ensign's support.

From day 1, this will be a competitive race.