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Thursday, October 13, 2005

NY-Gov: Spitzer Still Smoking All Comers

Posted by DavidNYC

Yesterday I mentioned that zillionaire and perennial losing independent gubernatorial candidate Tom Golisano had joined the GOP. Siena College now obliges us with a new poll showing just how strong Eliot Spitzer is in the state (registered voters, late Aug. in parens):

Spitzer: 56 (52)
Golisano: 26 (28)
Undecided: 18 (21)

Spitzer: 62 (56)
Weld: 18 (19)
Undecided: 20 (26)

Spitzer: 63
Faso: 19
Undecided: 19
(MoE: 4%)

Faso? Whodat? You know you're seriously nobody when I have to Google you to discover that you're merely a former freakin' Assemblyman. Alright, so he was minority leader, and alright, he came close to beating Alan Hevesi for the state Comptroller's job a few years ago - but you'll forgive me for erasing him from my memory, considering that 78% of my fellow New Yorkers (according to Siena) also don't know enough to form an opinion on the guy.

It does seem, though, that there's a pretty simple correlation going on between name recognition and support among potential Republican voters. Golisano gets a 52% D/K and 26% of the vote, while Weld and Faso are basically the same (75/18 and 78/19, respectively). Three point of name reco seems to be worth about one point at the polls. I don't know what the usual ratio, but that strikes me as pretty sad-sack.

Anyhow, like I said earlier, Golisano's got money to spend, and spend it he will. But he still won't beat Spitzer, and it's looking like he'll have a loser's primary with Faso and Weld to even get a chance against Eliot.

Posted at 10:14 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Technorati

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Comments

NY is going to be a lot of fun in 2006. A landslide in the gubernatorial and senate race translates to at least a few Congressional wins and a likley take over of the state senate.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at October 13, 2005 10:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll probably take some heat for this, but I do NOT want to see Hillary as the Democratic nominee in 2008 because I dislike her calculated political opportunism and I don't believe she could win unless the GOP nominated Condoleeza Rice (or maybe Trent Lott...both seem equally unlikely). I'm almost hoping that Hillary has a serious battle on her hands in retaining her Senate seat. If she won by less than 55% to Pirro, it would weaken her chances for securing the Democratic nomination in '08, leaving the door open to somebody who doesn't leave the starting gate with a 49% unfavorable rating.

Posted by: Mark at October 13, 2005 11:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, I think you may have posted to the wrong thread, but in any event... I'm not psyched about Hillary `08, either. However, my comment on that hypo matchup with Rudy was only about Rudy and not about Hillary. As I say in the post, I think Rudy might be hard to beat, whether he faces Hillary, John Edwards, Wes Clark, Russ Feingold, whomever.

But while we're on the subject, it looks like her recent unfavorables aren't quite so bad as 49%.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 13, 2005 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oops...you're right. I posted in the wrong thread. It's heartening to see Hillary's nationwide unfavorables aren't as low as a couple of previous polls I saw, but 2008 will be a glum year for me if Hillary tops the Democratic ticket.

As for Rudy, I think he's overrated. I find it hard to believe that someone who oozes New York City (no offense...lol) the way Rudy does could "connect culturally" with the people of Muskogee, Oklahoma, particularly when he concurs with the Democratic platform on the moral values issues that red-staters base their votes upon. A Rudy or McCain candidacy would most likely give rise to a Gary Bauer-esque third party player from the right who will siphon off Republicans and suddenly put the Democrats back in the game.

With that said, I still think Rudy would probably beat Hillary....and certainly I think McCain would. He's the guy that scares me the most. I just have to hope party purists get behind one of the many "real conservatives" planning to run and save us from the bloodbath of a McCain candidacy.

Posted by: Mark at October 13, 2005 11:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment