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Tuesday, October 04, 2005

OH-Sen: Hackett Crushing Brown in Straw Poll

Posted by Bob Brigham

There has been a great deal of discussion about yesterday's surprise hint of a decision change by Representative Sherrod Brown. As has been widely noted, Congressman Brown had near universal support for a potential senate bid, but decided not to run so as to clear the way for another candidate. Enter Paul Hackett, who has been working behind the scenes to put the pieces in place for a statewide run against Senator Mike DeWine (for example, yesterday Hackett was meeting with Senator Harry Reid). But also yesterday, Congressman Sherrod Brown decided to have his flack call the Hotline and hint he might flip and run after all.

We now have a DailyKos Straw Poll on the matter. While not scientific, I think there is more than enough participation to suggest where netroots support will be if there is a primary campaign between Brown and Hackett.

UPDATED: With 1328 1666 Total Votes

Congressman Sherrod Brown - 14% 13%
Major Paul Hackett - 85% 86%

A seventy point advantage?

Posted at 11:39 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Democrats, Netroots, Ohio | Technorati

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Comments

I just hope that Hackett doesn't lose his luster under the microscope of a prolonged statewide campaign. His straight-shooting style can be an asset short-term, but if it allow the opposition to Swift Boat him with the kind of soundbytes that capitalize on the faux paus of a novice candidate, this could backfire. I'm optimistic about Hackett's chances, but won't be able to help myself from biting my fingernails every time I read a headline with his name in it.

Posted by: Mark at October 4, 2005 12:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think both would make great candidates for Senate, but the straw poll in DailyKos is worthless. A real straw poll should be just among Ohio voters or Ohio Dems... Otherwise it is a bunch of outside blog readers saying what they think Ohioans should do.

While I went to college in Ohio, I will let Ohioans themselves decide who should hold the banner for them in the Senate race... Though I really, really hope that there is no primary fight -- that would be a waste of needed resources.

Posted by: Ian in DC at October 4, 2005 02:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think the poll is useful if for no other reason it might help forecast how much support (read: $$$) Hackett might expect to get from the netroots.

Posted by: Samson at October 4, 2005 02:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Either candidate will be able to raise money... Brown is a solid progressive. Money will not be an issue in this race unless they spend it against each other.

Posted by: Ian in DC at October 4, 2005 02:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have to concur with Ian in DC. The"netroots" aren't going to decide this election — us Ohioans will. I too hope there is no squandering of resources in a primary fight, but I am going to be out there busting my butt for Hackett (just as soon as we pass the RON Amendments 2-5).

Unlike Mark, I don't "bite my fingernails" every time I see a headline with Hackett's name; I look forward to seeing some truth that a majority of the wimpy Democrats everyone is always complaining about are afraid to give voice to. And I don't think "swift boating" is about the candidate it's being done to, as much as it's about the people doing it, because it's based on fabrications. I can think of about 20 things they can "swift boat" Brown on. Worse, he can easily be portrayed as a big-city intellectual/liberal out of touch with rural Ohioans. We need a guy who can talk to people on farms and small towns and Hackett's results in OH-2 showed he can do that. He ran better than his opponent (Schmidt) in most of the rural areas; the only areas she ran much better were the upscale exurbs. Brown is a smart, capable, progressive guy, but those things don't play as well downstate as they do among Northeast Ohioans.

Posted by: anastasia p at October 4, 2005 03:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

anastasia, you make some good points. I definitely believe the potential of victory is stronger with Hackett, particularly since his profile in Republican Cincinnati will cut into DeWine's base. In terms of rural Ohio being more inclined to vote for him than Brown, you're probably right, but in the specific case of OH-2, the most rural counties (Pike and Scioto) are always favorable territory for Dems, particularly compared to Clermont and Adams Counties where Hackett was defeated. The real test for Hackett will be in the rural southeastern portion of the state, such as Ted Strickland's House district. If he dominates in Steubenville and Marietta, he should be victorious statewide. By the way, does anyone know what part of Ohio DeWine is from? That could play a factor into Hackett's geographic positioning.

Posted by: Mark at October 4, 2005 03:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I believe DeWine is from the Dayton area. His son Pat was one of the losing Republican candidates in OH-02.

Posted by: Steve M at October 4, 2005 04:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DeWine is from Yellow Springs. Coincidentally so is Dave Chappelle.

Posted by: Samson at October 4, 2005 05:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I agree with my fellow buckeyes, that if Sherrod wants to run for the Senate, then so be it. He has immense credibility with Dems and Progressives in this state. He has not only talked the talk, but walked the walk since he was a state representative from Mansfield, Ohio first elected in 1974,when he beat a GOP incumbent who considered unbeatable.

Major Hackett is a fine person, but he does not have the major state wide name recognition and voter Id, that Sherrod has, and will have to invest a ton to get just a fraction of what Sherrod has at this time.

Posted by: Truebeliever at October 5, 2005 01:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment