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Sunday, October 02, 2005

Open Thread

Posted by Bob Brigham

What races are you thinking of?

Posted at 02:19 PM in General | Technorati

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Call me boring and repetitive but I'm thinking about Hackett v DeWine and Casey Jr v Santorum.

If Santorum were to lose, would we see him run again for Senate in VA (where he really lives)?

I've also been trying to figure out why so many democrats dislike Pat Jehlen. I'm sure this race will garner a lot of coverage here at SSP:
http://somervillenews.typepad.com/the_somerville_news/2005/09/jehlen_wins_by_.html

Posted by: Samson at October 2, 2005 12:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Two races I am worried about:

1. The Virginia governor's race -
I fear we're going to have a Paul Hackett episode 2, where Tim Kaine ends up losing this race because of low Democratic voter turnout - The way I see it, even if Kaine is tied with Kilgore in the latest polls, by virtue of Virginia being more red than purple, Kilgore has a close to sizeable advantage. If Kaine wins this election, it would be primarily because he puts in place a very aggressive and vigorous get-out-the-vote campaign. I hope in the these crucial three weeks, Dems on the blogosphere and on the ground in Virginia ramp up the GOTV efforts for Kaine.

2. Ohio US Senate race -
Why Paul Hackett hasn't announced his candidacy as at this point is a bit discouraging. If he's dragging his feet, that's a sign that he is half-interested in the race. He has to make his position known by sometime this month at the latest -- the waiting and posing is wrenching.

Posted by: purpleday at October 2, 2005 02:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Im concerned about the Virginia race as well. I live in the Charlottesville and go to school here as well. By looking around my town you would swear Tim Kaine is winning by duble digits. The samething was true for the 2004 election, however. Virginia may be more moderate when compared to other southern states but it still leans decisively to the right. We could always hope that northern VA will carry the entire state but it never happens for several reasons. One, the two other major areas (Richmond and Tidewater) are Republican once you leave the urban center. In Tidewater many of the urban areas are Republican or just moderately Democrat (Chesapeake, VA Beach, and Newport News for example). Then the rest of the rest of the state (with Charlottesville being the exception)is Republican. Mark Warner will help Tim Kaine and Bush's approval rating is in the 40s in this state but I am not going to call it a done deal until after November 8.

Posted by: UVA08 at October 2, 2005 03:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Purpleday I agree. If Hackett isn't going to run, the dems need to find a candidate and start fundraising and getting his/her name out there. He shouldn't waste anymore time.

Posted by: Samson at October 2, 2005 08:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think the Ohio-Sen activity has been quiet since Ryan and Brown dropped out for a reason: Hackett has probably been annointed as the Democratic candidate. The DSCC and Reid both courted him, and each new hint and rumor coming out of his camp (and the people close to him) almost certainly point to the fact that he's running. A few weeks ago, I was anxious about whether or not Hackett would enter the race. Now I'm very calm about it -- I'm pretty convinced that he's our guy.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at October 2, 2005 09:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, we're 48 hours from the last Congressional election in 2005 and fighting for the Crown Jewel of the Republicans in California. I think that might be worth a word or two.

We've got the nomination as close to in our hands as we can. By the time the vote counting stops Tuesday night it will be in our hands just as we are the Democratic Party of California endorsed candidate for the CA-48th as it is...and endorsed by the National Progressive Democrats in their very first endorsement and the Local DFA chapter and on and on and on.

The General Election of 9 weeks is going to be brutal. And we are ready for it. We have material already in the can. We have one union endorsement now and others that say they're ready as soon as we take the nomination. So yeah....I think the CA-48th that will be decided on Dec 6th 2005 and is really the first election of 2006 deserves a little attention.

We have a good chance at this fractured, low turnout race even with the registration disadvantage. What few know about the CA-48 is that it's really a very socially moderate district. This isn't the Mid-West or Southern Bible Belts.

So my vote to election to think about is the one right around the corner...CA-48!

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at October 2, 2005 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have been paying attention to the possibility of DeWine being taken down my Paul Hackett.

But the race that is really keeping me occupied right now is the Senate race in Missouri. State Auditor Claire McCaskill has announced that she will challenge the junior senator from Missouri, Jim Talent(-less hack).

And although my congressman, the Rev. Emanuel Cleaver is pretty safe, we have some Republicans like Sam Graves and Roy Blunt in rural areas who might be vulnerable now. Graves has issues with Veterans groups, and Blunt is the father of our snot-nosed 12-year-old governor and everybody is pissed at the governor right now, and perhaps a backlash will grow against RoyB and his too-close associations with DeLay and company.

Posted by: Global Citizen at October 3, 2005 12:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jerry Mcnerney For Congress for the 11th CD in California. Get rid of Richard Pombo's corruption and let's do it without the dccc's dlc/establishment candidate (filson), with a real progressive democrat with a strong and growin campaign and grassroots.

http://www.jerrymcnerney.org

Posted by: tronyea at October 3, 2005 02:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

fixed link

Posted by: tronyea at October 3, 2005 02:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Mississippi Senate race:

Trent Lott may very well retire and cash in with a lucrative K Street position. That would open his seat up to Democrat Ronnie Musgrave, the former governor.

Posted by: quaoar at October 3, 2005 02:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Call me biased:

I'm focusing on the US House races in PA, with special attention to the 6th and 8th Districts. The 10th, 7th, and whatever Melissa Hart's District is (forgetting off the top of my head), all have a decent pick-up chance too.

Posted by: PAProgressive at October 3, 2005 09:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Who is challenging Bob Ney in OH-18? He is neck-deep in the Jack Abramhoff scandal and his district is labor-heavy. Ohio is ripe ground and we need to have viable challengers in all seats.

Posted by: Ian in DC at October 3, 2005 09:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am wholly focused on Mike Ferguson in NJ's 7th Congressional district. We've got some good candidates (only one declared so far) here and a good group of grassroots folks kicking but with Blue 7th PAC and the Dump Mike project.

It's a Republican leaning district, but winnable. Especially with Ferguson clinging to Tom DeLay and lying to his constituents.

Posted by: njdem at October 3, 2005 10:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I too am thinking about the PA state races, though I'm thinking in terms of exciting candidates as well as the winnable races. Patrick Murphy set off a blaze of excitement in the PA-08, but Lois Murphy, Lois Herr, Chris Carney, and Paul Scoles are really turning up the heat too.

I see many people exclusively focused on the Senate race, but think we have a chance at doing more than our part in turning the House blue, if we really put our organizational efforts to it.

Posted by: AnneInPhilly at October 3, 2005 10:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thinking of the 2006 cycle in Minnesota, specifically the Gubernatorial election. Steve Kelley (DFL-Hopkins) has been in the race since June, but Kelly Doran, a centrist Dem and real estate developer has switched from running for US Senate to Governor, and now it appears that another State Senator, Becky Lourey, is going to get into the race as well. The Attorney General, Mike Hatch, is still keeping mum on whether he's going to run, but it's widely accepted that he will. I really believe Steve Kelley has the best chance to beat Tim Pawlenty next year, but the slate is getting more and more crowded.

Posted by: JelloAbode at October 3, 2005 02:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Even if I wasn't a Minnesotan, the very thought of an Amy Klobuchar-Mark Kennedy Senate dual would get my heart pumping. This is a classic Old Minnesota v. New Minnesota slugfest with both candidates having their own distinct geographic and demographic advantages. I think it's pretty likely that Klobuchar will be the Dems' choice here. I feel like whacking Patty Wetterling upside the head for not seizing on the opportunity to take over MN-06 now that Kennedy's running for Senate. As it stands now, Wetterling has very little chance of beating Klobuchar for the nomination and would most likely get steamrolled in a general election where her lack of political experience would be front-and-center in debates broadcast statewide.

As for the Minnesota gubernatorial race, I don't know enough about Steve Kelley's political profile to either concur or dispute JelloAbode's claim that he'd be most likely to unseat Pawlenty. Personally, I think Mike Hatch is the most electable Democrat in Minnesota. He has mopped the floor up with GOP challengers in both Attorney General runs, even producing solid margins in deep-red territory. Hatch's strength in rural Minnesota (particular northern Minnesota) strikes me as better able to offset Pawlenty's suburban advantage than would fellow suburbanite Steve Kelley. If Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is on the Senate ticket (as I expect she will be) the Dems will already have a disproportionate advantage in Hennepin County. Having another Hennepin County pol at the top of the ticket could prove too much to voters in the other 86 counties in a year when we desperately need the outstate region of the state to be blue.

Outside of Minnesota, I'm excited about our chances of picking up seats in Missouri, Montana (especially if Tester is our nominee), Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Vermont. And does anyone think we have a chance in Arizona, Nevada, or Rhode Island?

Posted by: Mark at October 3, 2005 05:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment