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Thursday, October 20, 2005

PA-Sen: Santorum Forced to Fend for Himself

Posted by Tim Tagaris

Talk about being thrown to the wolves.

Capital Hill sources say his support from RNC heavies has also evaporated. The blow-dried bible-thumper, who launched his campaign with a giant war chest, is also being deserted by the party’s major moneymen, who are focusing their largesse on more competitive candidates.

“This is how the Republicans operate,” sighs a veteran GOP campaign manager close to Santorum. “Even if you agree with their agenda, they’ll abandon you if you’re behind in the polls and move on to the next-most important race.” [...]

“It’s disgusting. Rick used to be Bush’s biggest booster on issues like stem-cell research, Social Security, and the Iraq war. Now the White House won’t even take his phone calls.”

This would be a miracle of miracles. What was once supposed to be the highest profile race of 2006 might be able to take place largely in the shadows. Democrats could not have asked for anything more than this, at all, period. First, we defeat Santorum, 'nuff said there. But as an added bonus, any confusion about a national message that might have taken place with the spotlight on Bob Casey is avoided. This news comes on the heels of a new Strategic Vision poll (Republican outfit) that shows Casey Jr. with a 16 point lead over the incumbent.

It's also important to note that the ultra-conservative base in Pennsylvania is not likely to rally to the side of the Senator. Amazingly, he is not even a hero to the extreme right in his home state--he's more of a villain. In 2004, that base rallied around current Club for Growth President Pat Toomey in his primary bid against Arlen Specter. Santorum endorsed Specter when the upstart group of supporters needed him to step up. Toomey lost, barely, and Santorum's own base for 2006 eroded. In fact, many in the conservative PA blogosphere would prefer to elect a "real Republican" to that seat...go figure.

Posted at 11:37 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

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I was over at swing state project and I was surprised to see that Santorum has lost the support of the Republican party in Pennsylvania. Given how Republicans walk in blind lock step I didn't think it was actually possible... [Read More]

Tracked on October 20, 2005 12:44 PM

Comments

Damn. If this is true, the Republicans seem to be taking a page of the Democrats' recent playbook....the playbook that sent Al Gore and John Kerry permanently abandoning states like Missouri and Arkansas months before the election following the first set of bad poll numbers. It is way too early for anybody to be writing Santorum's obituary yet, let alone his own party. Let's just hope the Republicans of 2006 continue to operate like the Democrats of 2000 and 2004. The election night consequences could easily be similar.

Posted by: Mark at October 20, 2005 12:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I went to college in PA and I worked on the Klink campaign in 2000. I thought that we had a good chance to win then eventhough we didn't have any money or support and we still made it a close race. I know that it is still a long time away from election day, but the RNC and the NRSC know what they're doing... this race is over. Bob Casey is like gold there and Santorum will unquestionable lose by double digits....which will also help Rendell get reelected. We REALLY need to focus on OH,WA,MN,MD,RI,MO,MT...if we hold and pick up those seats we have a majority. Of course we're not doing ourselves any favors with the primaries in OH,MT,MN,RI...so we'll see

Posted by: OH-09Dem at October 20, 2005 01:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-09Dem, projected landslides against incumbents rarely materialize. Minnesota's former unpopular Senator Rod Grams was expected to be beaten by 12 points or more in 2000. He lost by only six points. I wouldn't get too cocky about Santorum losing yet, although I do believe it's looking worse for him by the day. Alot can happen in a year, not the least of which could be record growth for the steel industry in the wake of Gulf Coast rebuilding efforts. Suddenly, the desire to oust Santorum among conservative steelworker Democrats may not be quite so insatiable.

I agree with you about the primaries impairing our efforts in Ohio, but I'm as sure whether the additional exposure Democratic candidates will get in Montana, Minnesota and Rhode Island will work to our disadvantage unless the primaries get really ugly and divisive. At least in Minnesota, I see little chance of that happening and am very confident that Amy Klobuchar will be our nominee...and she will be formidable. In addition to the states you cited, let's not forget about Arizona and Tennessee. Both are longshots, but we need to show we mean business in these red states and support what look to be strong candidates there.

Posted by: Mark at October 20, 2005 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, I agree that landslides against incumbents rarely happen, but I've talked to my people all over the state who assure me that it doesn't look good... and I think that a 6 point or higher win is probable and convincing.
Ford has been dubbed a riser but do you really think TN will elect a black senator? I agree with you in the Klobuchar assesment, and she will have a tough race against Kennedy, but we really need to hold on to that one. Suffice to say that whatever life Santorum's campaign had is gone with the RNC and NRSC withdrawal.

Posted by: OH-09Dem at October 20, 2005 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-09Dem, Ford is a longshot in the "new Tennessee". The fact that J.C. Watts (I know he's a Republican but he's also black) was able to win in the reddest of red districts in Oklahoma is somewhat heartening. But your point is well-taken. My ex-girlfriend was born and raised in rural Tennessee (Benton County) and admits to a decidedly racist worldview until moving to Memphis where the large number of blacks made her rethink her prejudices. And she's a Democrat who lived in a blue county. If her previous prejudices linger on even in ocean-blue Benton County, TN, Ford has a serious problem. Still, the Republican candidates are trying to outflank each other for the wingnut vote, and I don't believe Tennessee is that deep of red yet. If a perfect storm prevails, Ford could win, but I'm not likely to wager much money on it.

My assessment on the Minnesota race is that if Klobuchar a modestly functional campaign, her home county (Hennepin) is likely to give her a minimum of 60% of the vote. If she gets that, the arithmatic probably won't add up for Kennedy. I'm optimistic about our chances in Minnesota since I can't see us electing a second rubber stamp for the Bush administration. Kennedy's support of CAFTA has unleashed a furor up in NW Minnesota's sugar beet country, another key swing region with alot of conservative Democrats. At least for the moment, things are not adding up in Kennedy's favor.

Posted by: Mark at October 20, 2005 05:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

How can a Dem from Ohio possibly have a good handle on the Minnesota Senate race? Patty Wetterling has immense popularity and her name recognition is so great that it rivals the sitting governor. As for her cheif opponent, Amy Klobuchar, the party elites that originally anointed her are now scrambling to put together a stop Wetterling campaign. The state legislators that had endorsed Amy before Wetterling got into the race are now looking for a graceful exit. Klobuchar may have raised more money because of the corporate connections, but it is the Wetterling campaign that has the ground game, and she has let the state party know that if necessary she is prepared to go to a primary where she can absolutely trounce Amy Klobuchar, a relatively unknown county prosecutor.

Posted by: MN_DEM at October 25, 2005 01:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN_DEM, I'm a lifelong resident of Minnesota and I couldn't disagree more with your assessment of our Senate race. Patty Wetterling blew it by opting against running for Kennedy's old House seat, where I think she had at least a 50% chance of success. She's a rookie trying to play with the big boy's in this Senate race and she'll be eaten alive under the spotlight of a statewide Senate race....and I say this as a distant relative of Patty who has the utmost of respect for her, but who feels she made a grave mistake in her choice of races. If Wetterling drags this out into a primary that lasts until September, the primary victor will have to run a six-week campaign against the well-funded Kennedy, which spells almost certain defeat. Amy Klobuchar's name recognition appears to be at least as high as Wetterling's seeing as the Zogby poll last month showed Amy with a wider lead over Kennedy than Wetterling had, so I think you underestimate her profile among voters.

Wetterling could conceivably win against Kennedy, but she's an untested gamble that I suspect few Democrats are gonna be willing to take. If you're serious in hoping that Wetterling drags on a primary battle into mid-September 2006, you might as well make a donation to Mark Kennedy's campaign today because neither Klobuchar or Wetterling will have the means necessary to take him down in a six-week campaign. If either Klobuchar or Wetterling's nomination is not secured next spring after the endorsement process, the Democratic Party will write off the race, concede Kennedy's victory, and pour money into races in states where Democratic candidates are serious about winning.

Posted by: Mark at October 25, 2005 02:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN_DEM, I'm a lifelong resident of Minnesota and I couldn't disagree more with your assessment of our Senate race. Patty Wetterling blew it by opting against running for Kennedy's old House seat, where I think she had at least a 50% chance of success. She's a rookie trying to play with the big boy's in this Senate race and she'll be eaten alive under the spotlight of a statewide Senate race....and I say this as a distant relative of Patty who has the utmost of respect for her, but who feels she made a grave mistake in her choice of races. If Wetterling drags this out into a primary that lasts until September, the primary victor will have to run a six-week campaign against the well-funded Kennedy, which spells almost certain defeat. Amy Klobuchar's name recognition appears to be at least as high as Wetterling's seeing as the Zogby poll last month showed Amy with a wider lead over Kennedy than Wetterling had, so I think you underestimate her profile among voters.

Wetterling could conceivably win against Kennedy, but she's an untested gamble that I suspect few Democrats are gonna be willing to take. If you're serious in hoping that Wetterling drags on a primary battle into mid-September 2006, you might as well make a donation to Mark Kennedy's campaign today because neither Klobuchar or Wetterling will have the means necessary to take him down in a six-week campaign. If either Klobuchar or Wetterling's nomination is not secured next spring after the endorsement process, the Democratic Party will write off the race, concede Kennedy's victory, and pour money into races in states where Democratic candidates are serious about winning.

Posted by: Mark at October 25, 2005 02:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I would like to remind everyone that Casey is not the only Democrat running in this race. Chuck Pennacchio (www.chuck2006.com) is also running in the primary and he's a progressive Dem that we can actually get excited about. Pennacchio is the only one who supports a woman's right to choose, stem cell research expansion, an Iraq timeline / exit strategy, a living wage, universal single-payer healthcare, etc.

Posted by: Dave at November 9, 2005 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment