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Sunday, October 16, 2005

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Starting today, we're going to be posting an open thread every Sunday with the specific purpose of learning more about the races our readers are interested in. So tell us, what races are you following? What looks intriguing? Which campaigns would you like to hear more about? We - Tim, Bob and myself - will aim to learn more about the most compelling races you post here and write about them as we are able to.

So which races are on your mind?

Posted at 01:34 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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I am interested in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District Race. A ret. National Guard member, Tim Walz, is taking on a right-wing nut in Gil Gutknecht (94% of votes match up with Tom DeLay). Walz is a true populist candidate, an award-winning teacher, a retired Com. Serg. Major in the Army National Guard, check out the website www.timwalz.org. This is the real race to watch in Minnesota, no doubt in my mind!

Posted by: DFLer22 at October 16, 2005 02:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My neighbors to the south (in my case, VERY near south) look poised to have a very interesting gubernatorial contest. Conventional wisdom says in the state of Iowa, current Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) will be facing off against current GOP Congressman Jim Nussle. This should be a sweet battle given Iowa's fragmented demographics....which consists of "Nebraska East" Republican die-hards in the western third of the state, nutty religious evangelicals that have isolated pockets of dominance scattered throughout, liberal union workers in the eastern industrial towns, a large number of small liberal college towns along with the big Democratic prize in Iowa City, unpredictable white-collar centrists in Des Moines and equally unpredictable rednecks in rural, impoverished southern Iowa.

For the life of me, I can't understand why Democrat-leaning northeastern Iowa has shown such allegiance to the pretty boy conservative ideologue Nussle, but his geographic ties to Democratic strongholds in Waterloo and Dubuque present a serious challenge to Culver. On the other hand, Culver has the wind at his back because he's known statewide, will be running as a Democrat in Iowa where the D's have serious momentum at the state level, and he is taking the reins from a popular Democratic incumbent in Tom Vilsack who has successfully weaved the conflicting interests of his base and of moderate swing voters to shift Iowa's statewide voting patterns leftward while the rest of Middle America has shifted rightward.

Control of the Iowa statehouse is important because Congressional redistricting in the state is likely to make the difference between one Democratic House member or three Democratic House members. Furthermore, I'm excited about the prospect of seeing my neighboring district (IA-01) get rid of Nussle. It's rated as the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity in the nation, and in what is likely to be a Democratic year, it would be great to see a good progressive Democrat elected to provide that struggling district the representation it deserves.

Posted by: Mark at October 16, 2005 02:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm following the Virginia governors race very closely. I think this race is far more important to the future of the Democratic Party than we are giving it credit. If Tim Kaine wins, it would really demoralize the Republicans more than we think, because Virginia leans Republicans. Momentum for the 2006 mid-term elections would be on our side. The outcome of this race would give us a clear indication of the Republican support for the Bush administration. Too many Democrats are unfortunately writing off the Republican's chances next year. That's a huge mistake.
We need to take the wind off their sails this year by winning the New Jersey governors race, but more importantly winning in red state Virginia.

The Virginia race is close, Kaine needs all the buzz, financial support, etc here on the blogs and on the ground. The progressive blogosphere has the potential to take this race to another notch, like we did for Paul Hackett. Get the Democratic base excited about this race, build our momentum in the closing three weeks of this race, and I would say only then are Kaine's chances good.

Get-out-the-vote wins this election. The ball is in our court. We have the whole of next year to worry about next years elections, but the two major elections next month should hold our utmost focus and attention.

Posted by: purpleday at October 16, 2005 02:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maryland. As a Maryland resident I would like to see both the Gubernatorial and Senate races covered more. I think we're going to have a very exciting election season here in Maryland 2006. IMO, Maryland is ground zero -- two competitive statewide races that will demand a lot of hard work and money.

Anyone catch the Washington Post article regarding the 'Steele factor'? Apparently Democrats and Republicans agree that the lack of Black statewide elected officals in Maryland is beginning to wear on Black residents.

Posted by: nickshepDEM at October 16, 2005 02:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DFLer22, I live in MN-01. Even with marginal, unfinanced opponents, Gutknecht has never crossed a threshold of about 62% support. With the political transformation of its largest city, the former Republican stronghold of Rochester, into a swing community, MN-01 has become a 50-50 district that I see as clearly trending blueward in a state where we desperately need it. With that in mind, Gutknecht's gonna be hell to unseat. I've talked to the guy personally on several occasions and found him to the personification of a plastic politician who would melt if he stood too close to a radiator. Nonetheless, his recent independent votes on CAFTA and prescription drugs put Walz at a disadvantage. My dad has listened to Walz speak and was quite impressed, but the call for replacing Gutknecht on the grounds that "he should have done more to convince OTHER REPUBLICANS to vote with him against CAFTA" strikes me as a hard sell. Gutknecht's biggest vulnerability is Iraq, which hardly anybody in MN-01 ever supported but which he has marched in cartoonish lockstep with Bush on every step of the way. Given Walz' gravitas on the matter, he could provoke an uprising on that front...combined with a criticism of Gutknecht breaking his six-term pledge. If there's any year to take down Gutknecht, this is it.....but it'll take a perfect storm.

Elsewhere in MN, the conservative 6th district will be open with Mark Kennedy running for Senate. I could strangle Patty Wetterling, who lost to Kennedy by a mere seven points in the district last year, for deciding in favor of a kamikaze Senate primary run against Amy Klobuchar, rather than going for MN-06, where she would be the clear front-runner even in that Republican district. Without Wetterling in the mix, the district is pretty certain to stay in Republican hands. Very frustrating!

Posted by: Mark at October 16, 2005 02:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

nickshep, I read the article on Maryland's black voters feeling taken for granted and it concerned me. At the same time, I think Ben Cardin would be a much more viable candidate against Steele than would Mfume. If we lose a Senate seat in Maryland next year, it will be devastating. Who would you favor to run against Steele? And who do you favor in the gubernatorial race against Ehrlich?

Posted by: Mark at October 16, 2005 02:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, In the race for U.S. Senate I am 100% behind Ben Cardin. I believe he will be a very good statewide candidate. He's almost an exact replica of Sen. Sarbanes. As a bonus his base is in the precious suburbs surrounding Baltimore City (this were Maryland elctions are decided). Mfume, IMO, is a very poor statewide candidate. He's surrounded by scandal including: illegitmate children, ethical issues while at the NAACP, etc. I also have a hard time envisioning moderate blue collar Democrats voting for Mr. Mfume. This demographic is key. However, everything has a tradeoff. By effectively 'blocking' Mr. Mfume's senate bid, the Democratic establishment is pissing off the African American base similarly to the way they did in 2002 w/ KKT's Lt. Gov. pick. If Cardin is the nominee, which I firmly believe he will be, Steele will carry around 20% of the Black vote, but Cardin will neutralize this effect by preforming well in Baltimore, Howard, and Anne Arundel County.

The race for Governor is a whole different can of worms. At first I was leaning Duncan in the primary, but now I am pretty much on board with O'Malley. I was afraid of O'Malleys baggage (Poor school system, outrageous murder rate, Police Chief Trouble, etc.), but after thinking about I truly believe he can compete with Ehrlich in the Baltimore Suburbs, which will give him a huge boost come eletion day.

My conclusion: I can live with another 4 years of Ehrlich, but would definitely prefer a Democrat. For Senate, I will be BEYOND pissed if we lose this seat. Theres no reason for a state where the President has a 62% disapproval rating to send a another Bush rubber stamp to the U.S. Senate. Cardin deserves this seat.

Posted by: nickshepDEM at October 16, 2005 02:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have been paying a lot of attention to the Virginia Governor's race. I have noticed the Swiftboating of Tim Kaine and his somewhat lackluster responses. Seeing him in a debate on CSpan showed me that it is IMPERATIVE that he is elected next month. His opponent, Jerry Kilgore is the classic right-wing nut. He even compared Kaine to Hitler in an ad and then expressed pride in doing that! This race has big-time implications for the Democratic party's future. If Kaine wins, we know we have the momentum continuing to our side. The race is within the margin of error of the polls and we really need to keep this governorship democratic.

For 2006, I think more attention is needed to be given to the Maryland Senate race or the Minnesota Senate race along with the many Governor's races being close. The Oklahoma Governor's race is looking like it will become a very close and exciting race. There is a popular Democratic governor in a Red State (Brad Henry), but popular Republican representive Ernest Istook is looking to take him on.

Posted by: okiedude04 at October 16, 2005 03:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Of course Gutknecht will be "a hell" to unseat, but who ever said that changing America would be easy?
The perfect storm is brewing in Southern Minnesota Gutknecht. I traveled across the District with Walz over the past summer, people want a change.
Gutknecht did not do enough and CAFTA and even said that he wanted to vote for it. It was purely a political move for him to vote against it.
There is no better candidate to take down Gil Gutknecht than Tim Walz. There has not been a viable opponent to go head-to-head with Gil Gutknecht since 1998. Walz is working hard and will take down Gutknecht.
As not just a Minnesota resident, but a resident of Southern Minnesota, I understand the importance of this race.
BTW, Wetterling could never win in the 6th Congressional District. When it gets down to the issues she is much too liberal for that area (i.e. Pro-Choice).
But we should be looking at the 1st as our top priority. The 6th is open, and is a possibility, but Walz is too great of a candidate for us to let slip away.

Posted by: DFLer22 at October 16, 2005 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in the 2006 New Jersey Senate race. Republican Tom Kean has been polling ahead of the field of potential Democratic nominees. 2006 is not a year where Democrats want to have to worry about keeping seats, it should be all about pick ups. And NJ is the last place the Democrats should have to worry about, but so far, they are I suppose. Also, if Corzine somehow loses the Governor's race it will be interesting to see if he chooses to run for his Senate seat again or retire from his brief (and costly) political career.

Posted by: Jesse at October 16, 2005 03:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DFLer22, as I said, I live in MN-01 myself and agree with much of what you say. Walz's chances will rely completely on whether he gets the party financing that Steve Andreasen and Leigh Pomeroy did not (and by the way, Andreasen was an outstanding candidate in 2002 with national foreign policy experience under his belt during the Clinton administration). I don't disagree with you at all the district's leftward turn is slowly pricing Gil Gutknecht out of the ideological marketplace and think Walz should be awarded as much party financing as possible to see if this is the year Southern Minnesota DFLers have been waiting for since 1994.

I think you're way off base about the 6th district though. Patty Wetterling lost to a popular incumbent by only seven points and this year faces the prospect of an open seat. To say she could never win there is not reflective of the way the race unfolded last year. If Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer was the GOP nominee for the district, I suspect Wetterling would lose. But if wingnuts like Cheri Pierson Yecke and Michele Bachmann ran, I would guess in favor of a Wetterling victory. This strikes me as a classic case of giving away a solid opportunity.

Posted by: Mark at October 16, 2005 03:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am interested in the 8th district congressional race in Indiana. Two term democrat sheriff Brad Ellsworth is taking on 6-term Republican John Hostettler. When-ever the congress votes and there are less than 10 people voting against something you can bet that John Hostettler is one them. He is an extreme right-wing nut case. He tries to force his religious beliefs on you.

Posted by: Ted Miller at October 16, 2005 04:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm following CA-11, which is within driving distance of the most progressive parts of the Bay Area. Pombo is a corrupt slimeball and he deserves to go down. And the primary is going to be between a well-funded establishment candidate with very little grassroots support (Steve Filson) and an insurgent grassroots candidate who doesn't have much funding (Jerry McNerney). (I wrote a more complete analysis here). I think this race gives us an opportunity to define what the Democratic Party is about, and I'll be very actively involved in it.

In California, we need to stop focusing exclusively on the swing states and start focusing on our swing districts or our swing counties. Barbara Boxer got 60% of the vote in CA-11, and there's no reason for the Dems not to fight like hell to turn that part of California blue.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at October 16, 2005 04:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Momentum for the 2006 mid-term elections would be on our side.

I'm not sure how much I buy into this. We won the Gov seats in both NJ and VA in 2001 - despite those elections taking place right after 9/11, when Bush's approval was stratospheric - and they didn't seem to help us much with 2002. I think notions of "momentum" have to be much broader, not just based on a single race or two.

That said, I do think VA-Gov is important, and it might be a harbinger, if not an actual momentum-building.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 16, 2005 06:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Most interested in the Ohio Guv race. Would love to hear more about the grassroots plans of the Democratic AND Republican candidates. I think that, just as in 04, Ohio will come down to the candidate with the best ground game.

My wager is down for one particular Democrat, but I haven't heard too much about the others.

Posted by: ohiopol at October 16, 2005 06:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in CD21 and CD22 in Texas. We've got two good Democratic candidates in these two races running against the corrupt money machine of Tom DeLay. DeLay's district is CD22 and his Democratic challenger is Nick Lampson. He's one of our former congressmen that was defeated due to the redistricting plan Tom DeLay shoved through our state house with the illegal corporate funds he's now accused of laundering.

In CD21 we have a great progressive candidate named John Courage who recently won the first endorsement award from Democracy for Texas for best Grassroots All-Star. His republican incumbent in CD21 is Lamar Smith who considers Tom DeLay his close personal friend; just like DeLay considers Jack Abramoff his close personal friend. You get the picture. Lamar Smith was appointed to the Ethics Committee in Congress to save DeLay's ass, and he was one of the yes votes on that committee to change the rules to allow DeLay to serve if indicted. They of course changed those rules back, under intense pressure. Smith has donated $10,000 to DeLay's legal defense fund. Smith has no business being on the Ethics Committee. Both he and DeLay need to be swept out of Congress in a "let's clean the people's house" 2006 election.

http://www.courageforcongress.com
http://www.lampson.com/

Sonia

Posted by: SoniaS at October 16, 2005 07:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Corzine's race in New Jersey -- http://www.corzineconnection.com

NJ7 Defeating Mike Ferguson -- http://www.dumpmike.com

The 2008 Presidential Race -- http://www.dems.us

Posted by: njdem at October 16, 2005 07:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not to be canballistic or anything, but one race I've been trying to follow is the Democratic primary in TX-28 between Henry Cuellar and (now offially) Ciro Rodriguez, the guy Cuellar bounced in the 2004 Dem primary. Cuellar seems a real threat to turn Republican, whereas Rodriguez was previously the head of the Hispanic Caucus.

So, I'm taking sides in this one, and I'd love to have your help keeping track of it whether you want to wade in or not.

Other than that, I like watching Montana and Colorado in general. They both seem critical in our fight to turn the West blue. Colorado in particular seems set to host a number of very exciting--and potentially momentum-creating--races: the race for governor, a (wide) open seat in CO-7, John Salazar's defense in CO-3, and the the ever-present possibility of knocking off true winger Marilyn Musgrave in CO-4, not to mention the state's continuing batch of trend-setting ballot initiatives.

Posted by: Andy Albertson at October 16, 2005 07:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Being from Kansas I am particulary interested in the Governor's Race next year. The fact that a Democratic Woman could be re-elected Governor of Kansas allows a ton of room for study as to how her message strategy could be utilized in 2008.

Posted by: KansasNate at October 16, 2005 09:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CO-4 was won by incumbent Marylin Musgrave with 51% of the vote in 2004 and I hope this could be a pickup for the Dems in 2006. Together with Beauprez (CO-7, a suburban Denver district won by severla hundred votes in 2004) leaving office to run for Gov we have the chance to carry the majority of Colorado's seven congressional districts.

Posted by: mcittone at October 16, 2005 09:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Right now, I am very interested in the CA special election. Even here in the very conservative OC, public opinion seems unified against Arnold. If we can defeat at least 3 out of his four props. we should be able to defeat him in 2006.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at October 16, 2005 09:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kansas,

Do you think Sebelius could be a VP contender in 2008?

Clark/Sebelius...wow...

Posted by: jkfp2004 at October 16, 2005 09:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark-
I had a feeling you would focus on the least important part of my post (Wetterling and the 6th). I wish she would run there too, but she can't John Kerry (flip-flop) and jump races like Kelly Doran.
Andreasen was a solid candidate with a great resume. But, he did very little fundraising and was not visible. Walz has the energy that Andreasen didn't, the preparation that Pomeroy didn't, and a FANTASTIC resume. You have to realize the wonderful opportunity in Minnesota. Instead of arguing which district is the most winnable. Let us focus, as DFL activitists, and try to get the great minds at the Swing State Project to target Minnesota as a state!
-DFLer22

Posted by: DFLer22 at October 16, 2005 10:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

US Senate Races: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Arizona, Montana, and Ohio. Minnesota and Maryland are going to be our most competitive seats to retain. If we win these seats plus maintain our current ones -- we will achieve a majority.

US House races in Connecticut should be NUMBER ONE Seats held by Chris Shays, Rob Simmons, and Nancy Johnson. Minnesota John Kline and Mark Kennedy's seats -- Pennsylvania Jim Gerlach's seat, Illinois Henry Hyde's seat, Texas Tom DeLay's seat, Calif. Duke Cunningham's seat, Wyoming Barbara Cubin's seat, New york Tom Reynolds seat, Charles Boutsany seat (if Chris John runs!). We also need to work to retain Melissa Bean's seat, John Barrow's seat and other close competitive districts that we currently run.

Posted by: Kyle Raccio at October 16, 2005 10:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'd like to hear more about the open seat races next year, especially the US House ones. There's a great post over at OurCongress listing the open seat races, but is anyone making a list yet of who's running for those seats? I've heard about CA-50 (Francine Busby) and NE-3 (Scott Kleeb).

Sadly, no open seats in Michigan. What races we have (for US House) will be uphill ones, but we have a real shot at taking back the state house & state senate. Michigan Liberal has details on all the state races.

Posted by: lpackard at October 16, 2005 11:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In IL, we need to lose the GOP con artists & replace them with the following Dem candidates:

IL-06 -- Christine Cegelis instead of Peter Roskam (a DeLay clone)

IL-14 -- Ruben Zamora is a man of the people. Speaker Hastert was in the right place at the right time. He should've never been in congress let alone speaker.

IL-11 -- John Pavich is ex-CIA. He's probably business-as-usual on the Hill yet a better choice than Rep. Weller & his criminal wife & in-laws.

IL-15 -- Dr. David Gill has more common sense & intelligence than Tim Johnson could ever hope for. He's also not in DeLay's pocket. Rep. Johnson took $25,000 from the DeLay PAC. He can't be trusted.

IL-19 -- Dr. Tim Bagwell actually unerstands his constituents & the issues. John Shimkus is a GOP Roll Call vote & campaign money. He's already been called "dumber than a stick" by someone who regrets voting for him.

Posted by: Philosophe Forum at October 17, 2005 12:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In the immediate future- like the next three weeks - Reform Ohio Now. This is crucial to pass.

Next year: keeping Kenneth "Katherine Harris" Blackwell out of the Ohio statehouse. Due to a bad bobble Friday by one of the two Democratic candidates, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, it looks like Rep. Ted Strickland is the Man, and I think he will be a formidable candidate. Some of the Perfect Progressives are on his case because he's a big gun man, but he's got a lot that could appeal to downstate and swing voters. One of the worst tendencies of the Ohio Democratic Party which has bothered me for years is their tendency to run these rather bland urbanized candidates from Northeast Ohio who don't run well in the rest of the state (Eric Fingerhut, anyone?). I think Strickland has qualities that can overcome that (So does Coleman but not being decisive in his handling of the Reverend Rod Parsley is a serious negative. This bobble may have been a deal-breaker for me.

That leads to the Ohio Senate race. Sherrod Brown vs Paul Hackett in the primary to run against incumbent Mike DeWine. Both good men with good positions but Brown just strikes me as another Northeast Ohio guy who might not run that well in Southern Ohio, rural areas and among Republicans and right-leaing independents. Also, at a time when many grassroots Democrats are literally climbing walls because of the Democratic politicians' failure to speak out on Iraq and hold Bush accountable for the debacle it's become, despite the fact that polls show this wouldn't be particularly politically risky, Brown's failure to address this aggressively could be negative, while Hackett's head-on confrontation of the issue could be a plus. Some people have complained Hackett has changed his position. His position has evolved as circumstances have changed, and he's not ashamed to say so. And while Brown does have an excellent voting record on economic and jobs issues, I have heard Hackett speak on them and I think he is better equipped to do so in a way that resonates with disillusioned Republicans. Brown's explanations of his positions on jobs and trade issues are a little on the academic side. I think Hackett could steal votes from DeWine; I think Brown would have to rely more on inspiring a huge turnout among Democratic voters. I would dutifully vote for Brown but I wouldn't be inspired.

Posted by: Ansatasia P at October 17, 2005 12:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm following the race to impeach Bush. The outcome of this crucial race will be determined in 40 or so House districts across the country. If Democrats can't make voters, who are now distrustful of Bush and the GOP in general, understand the connection between their friendly local gladhanding Republican and the nightmare of Bush's glaring inadequacies, the race will be lost. (Not that the Senate races aren't just as important. Even if the Democrats impeach Bush, only the Senate can convict him and remove him from office before he can pardon all the criminals from his regime plaguing our nation.)

Posted by: DownWithTyranny at October 17, 2005 12:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

While US House and Senate races are of the most interest, some state, county, and municipal races are quite important in the balance of power in a state.

One such case is the race for District Attorney in Westchester County in New York. Westchester is just north of New York City and has a population of about 900,000. It is a bell weather county in New York and as it votes, New York states usually goes with.

The Republicans had controlled Westchester for years. However, over the last decade it has trended more and more Democratic. Those moving to Westchester for better schools or single family houses with yards tend to be Democratic and importantly stay Democratic, as the national Republican Party stances are no longer appealing.

There are 3 county-wide seats. The County Executive is a Democrat and favored to be re-elected. The two others are held by Republicans who are not re-running. They picked to step down in a non-Presidential, non-Senatorial year where turnout is lowest which is the benefit to the Republicans.

The Democrats have a GREAT candidate for District Attorney in Tony Castro (www.tonycastroforda.com) who was over a decade in the Bronx District Attorney's Office and rose through the ranks to become the Deputy Bureau Chief. While there he typically managed 40 assistant DA's and tried 1,000 cases per year. He was endorsed by Democracy for America and several law enforcement organizations.

The current DA is none other than Jeanine Pirro who seems will be the Republican candidate to run against Hillary Clinton for US Senate. In 2001 Tony ran for the first time to become the Westchester County District Attorney and came within 6% of defeating her.

His opponent is a career politician that is going for the 4th elected position in 8 years and has scant trial experience. This is a clear case of the Democrats having the best candidate.

He should be hands down a favorite to win. However, the Republicans are scared of losing this race and have raised probably 3 times more he. As a result it is a tight race.

This would be of interest to readers of your blog because:

-It is a case, real-time study of how state politics work,

-There has never been a Democratic DA in Westchester,

-The remaining Republican machine in Westchester would be objectively monitored for the first time (if there had been a Dem DA, a razor close - 18 votes - for NY state senate would probably had been decided differently. This would have put the Democrats one step closer to controlling the NY Senate which determines the election districts for Congress and the voting machines used in NY.)

-A future candidate for the Republicans is taken out (if Pirro lost last time to Castro, she would not be running against Hillary).

-Tony Castro, if he ever so desires, could run for a higher office.

-The race is in 3 weeks and not 2006 or 2008

-The grassroots and many party regulars are behind him, but the Democrats have been negligent in funding this race.

-This is probably the most important position in Westchester, more than County Executive. The Democratic Party would come to regret not supporting him enough if he doesn't win.

So Tony needs publicity and he needs funding to offset the Republican huge advantage. Any help you can provide would be greatly appreciated.

Posted by: edonyoung at October 17, 2005 12:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'd like to see some coverage of the race against Ralph Reed for Lt. Gov of Georgia, as well as the Tennessee Senate race in 2006. Also, the Nevada race with former President Carter's son looks to be shaping up to be very interesting.

Posted by: dafurr at October 17, 2005 01:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Alabama governor

This has to be one of the premier races of 2006.

Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley is the favorite against former Gov. Don Siegelman in the Democratic primary.

Republican Gov. Bob Riley is being challenged by Roy Moore -- the Antichrist himself.

Moore, despite some odd early polls, has a good chance to oust Riley in the primary, setting up a titanic struggle between good and evil.

Posted by: quaoar at October 17, 2005 01:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am looking at OH-18 where Bob Ney is running for reelection. Ney is neck deep in the Abramoff scandal and this district was union Dem until Ney got the seat in 1994. Getting a good candidate here for the Dems could be a good opportunity.

Posted by: Ian in DC at October 17, 2005 09:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WI-Gov and WI-08

The Wisconsin Governor's race is among the most important in the country; if elected Republican Mark Green has pledged that the first thing he'll do is push a voter ID bill that would disenfranchise students, seniors, and minorities. If we don't win the governor's race, we're basiclly handing over our 10 electoral votes to the GOP in 2008 (remember that we're the swingiest of swing states; JK won by about 10,000 votes and had the 2nd highest student turnout in the nation; if we lose these groups, we'll lose everything). We need to reelect Governor Doyle, or Wisconsin will become Alabama.

Green is opening up his congressional seat by running, and there are two strong challangers: Nancy Nussbaum and Jaime Wall. Both have been doing great at fundraising, but they're up against the speaker of the WI Assembly, a nasty Republican with a lot of connections to big $, in a tough district. It'd be great to get your take on this race.

Posted by: LaXWI at October 17, 2005 10:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Lax that's probably the race that will effect me the most. Because not only am I a Wisconsin resident, I'm also a student. Some people complain about Doyle but the state of Wisconsin would be much, much worse without his veto pen

Posted by: safi at October 17, 2005 11:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CT 02, 04, 05, and Gov

These are probably the some of the best pickup opportunities for Dems in the country. Connecticut has become increasingly liberal in the past decade, and Bush is so unpopular here that even an effort to name a slab of pavement after him in New Haven (unfortunately, he was born there)turned into a whole controversy, and so hopefully 2006 is the year the state turns solid blue just like our neighbors in Mass.

CT 02 is a very Democratic-leaning district as it is mainly made of up Hartford and New Haven suburbs and tough blue collar union towns, but it lacks a large urban presence. Rob Simmons only won 54-46 against a so-so candidate in 2004, and that was mostly because he promised his ties to Bush would help save the Groton Sub Base. Now, millions of dollars later, the base is saved, but the fact it was on the close list may really hurt Simmons. Running against him is 2002 opponent Joe Courtney, who seems to know what he is doing, and should put up a good fight.

CT-04 is one of the most highly publicized races in the country, with Diane Farrell again taking on incumbent moderate Chris Shays. The district is largely the extremely wealthy New York suburbs of Fairfield County, while also holding including staunch Democratic city of Bridgeport and Democratic-leaning Stamford. A look at the demographics should give any Republican an easy victory, but the constituents of this district are very much socially liberal and the district was carried by both Gore and Kerry. Farrell is also the very popular First Selectwoman of the very wealthy town of Westport, and she knows how to raise money. One thing of note, if Bush is able to kill Amtrak, this may hurt Shays, as public transportation is very important in Connecticut, and any blow to Amtrak will upset a lot of commuters around Stamford. Farrell only lost this 52-48 last time, and so this is ripe for a pickup.

CT-05 is a new district from 2002 that consists of the old Republican 05 and the Democratic 06. The district did go for Bush, ever so slightly, and Nancy Johnson has been in Congress for over 20 years. However, she now has a good opponent in Chris Murphy, who in 2002 beat a similar candidate (an old lady, long-time incumbent Republican)in a similar district for state senate. He is young and energetic, and should help excite people about the race, as the Dems blew 2004 when the Democratic candidate only ran because no one else would (Johnson got 60%). This district is largely rural Litchfield County, but includes some Hartford suburbs as well as the cities of Danbury, half of Waterbury, and Democratic New Britain. Murphy can do it.

CT-Gov- This is a wild card race. The state has huge Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, and yet cannot elect a Democratic governor. Though, of course, no one elected our current governor, as she is filling in for John Rowland as he is serving a term as a guest of the federal government in Pennsylvania. Jodi Rell, however, has cleaned house and her numbers are up to 80%. However, a lot can change in a year, and if the state economy sours, Rell may be in trouble. But to be fair, she has put money towards public transportation (though not enough), and did sign the Civil Unions law into effect. There are two Dems fighting in a primary battle: Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy and New Haven Mayor John DeStefano. DeStefano has raised $2.6 mil and is seen as strong on crime and education and is popular with minorities, Malloy $1.7 mil and is popular for helping Stamford become one of the safest and richest cities in the country, and just landed a deal to bring the headquarters of the Royal Bank of Scotland to the city, along with hundreds of jobs. So it's a tough battle, but one of these men may be able to take down Rell.

Keep an eye on CT, with Lieberman probably getting over 70%, his cottails can help put us over the top in maybe 4 races.

Posted by: CTdan at October 17, 2005 01:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Oregon Gubernatorial race is looking particularly interesting. The incumbent, Ted Kulongoski is unpopular and has numerous Democratic primary challengers. There is also a close race among the Republicans with a good chance that the split will allow ultra-conservative state senator Jason Atkinson to win the nomination. To top things off, there is the possibility of a moderate Independent (http://kos.dailykos.com/story/2005/8/24/134230/340) stealing voters from both sides.

Posted by: Lucon at October 17, 2005 08:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment