Swing State Project

« AZ-Sen: Pederson (D) Trails Kyl (R) in Fundraising - But Read On | Main | NJ-Gov: FDU Poll Puts Corzine up Eight »

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

WI-Gov: Doyle (D) with a Hefty Lead

Posted by DavidNYC

Earlier, we relayed some news from Josh Marshall about the stink of Abramoffian corruption bleeding into the campaign of Rep. Mark Green, candidate for Wisconsin governor. Today comes some good news for Jim Doyle, the Democratic incumbent. Take a look at this new poll from the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute (adults, no trendlines):

Doyle: 46
Green: 33
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±5%)

This is a marked contrast to the Zogby Patented Happy Fun-Tymes Poll (TM), which had Green ahead 46-44. Whatever. (WPRI also shows Doyle swamping another GOP hopeful, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, 50-31.)

However, it's not all roses for Doyle. For one, Green appears to have low name recognition - though the internals maddeningly conflate "neutral opinion" with "don't know." I am sure Green's D/K is not 61% - I'd bet it's more like 30 to 40%. On the flipside, Doyle's favorables aren't very good - he's at 46-38, though apparently the 46% mark is the best of his career (PDF), according to the WPRI.

With 21% undecideds, and Green's name rec poised only to grow, I think there's a lot of room for this race to gyrate. I don't know how serious the Green-Walker primary battle is, but these sorts of things usually tend to give challengers more exposure. On the flipside, the primary in WI is very, very late - September of '06, so if it's a hard-fought battle, the eventual victor will have precious little time to change gears and wade into battle with Doyle.

The one odd thing about this poll is that it surveyed just adults - not registered (or likely) voters. I don't know what that tends to do with results, but I'd guess that people who are less politically inclined are probably more likely to support incumbents by default, simply by virtue of their greater name recognition. So it may mean that this poll tilts a little bit toward Doyle. Thoughts from those with insight on this detail would be greatly appreciated.

(Via jj32.)

Posted at 02:58 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Wisconsin | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/1808

Comments

In this case, I suspect Zogby's numbers are closer to right than WPRI's. I live next door to Wisconsin and don't hear too much in the way of accolades for Jim Doyle, who squeaked by in 2002 against a heavily embattled Republican incumbent expected to lose in a trounce. At the very least, the margin will come down once the race heats up as Wisconsin is one of the most divided states in the nation.

For those not aware of the state's demographics, Milwaukee's suburbs are just as Republican as Cincinnati's. What Dane County (Madison) does for the Democrats margin-wise, suburban Waukesha County completely undoes. Gore and Kerry eked out wins by prevailing in rural western Wisconsin, a swing area that often decides election outcomes in the state. If I was an advisor to Doyle, I'd pretty much shuttle him on a straight line through Superior, Chippewa Falls, Eau Claire, La Crosse and Platteville. If recent history is any indication, the election will be won or lost there.

Posted by: Mark at October 11, 2005 03:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just a quick hit here...if you consider the Zogby to be a "happy fun time" poll, then how come so many of Hackett's supporters quote it in defense of the man's superior electability.

Posted by: Rafael Noboa at October 11, 2005 05:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You'd have to ask those people, not me. I have specifically said that I'm very skeptical of those Zogby polls, and that I have no plans to cite them for any purposes other than entertainment, if at all. I've never once pointed to that Zogby poll to make the case for Hackett.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 11, 2005 05:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"odd thing about this poll is that it surveyed just adults - not registered (or likely) voters."

With at the polls registration, young voter turnout is always much higher here than most States, always running either 1st or just behind Minnesota for 2nd. Polling just registered voters misses them.

Posted by: Ben Masel at October 12, 2005 04:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With at the polls registration, young voter turnout is always much higher here than most States, always running either 1st or just behind Minnesota for 2nd. Polling just registered voters misses them.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for that piece of information. I wish we had at-the-polls registration in NY... hell, everywhere.

Posted by: DavidNYC at October 12, 2005 10:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment