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Monday, November 28, 2005

CT-05: Taking a Look at Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)

Posted by DavidNYC

It seems like a crime that three of Connecticut's five House seats are occupied by Republicans. With any luck, that'll change next year - and if we have any hope of ever retaking the House, it had better change. Anyhow, most attention has focused on CT-02 and CT-04 so far, but Goldrick explicates an op-ed column on the race in CT-05, currently held by Republican Nancy Johnson. He concludes that Johnson can be beaten, not least of all because her challenger, Democrat Chris Murphy, has already raised a quarter mil. But don't take my word for it - check out Goldrick's diary.

Posted at 01:12 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | Technorati

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Comments

Nancy Johnson was VERY close to being toppled in 1996. Her district has always leaned Republican and I think leans even more that way since the 2001 redistricting. Nonetheless, a long-time insider like Johnson in a swing district may prove just as vulnerable as a one-term freshman in the midst of a national tide going the opposite way. I would definitely rank CT-05 among our top-25 prospects for next year.

Posted by: Mark at November 28, 2005 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, I think your assessment of CT-05 may be off. The demographics didn't change all that much after redistricting. CT-05 was created by mushing together old CT-05 and old CT-06. New 05 went 52-43 for Gore; old 05 was 51-45, old 06 (Johnson's old district) 53-42. So it barely budged - and it's also leaned Dem for a while now.

However, it went for Kerry by less than one percentage point last year.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 28, 2005 03:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Perhaps you're right because I don't know exactly where the new District 5 ends and where neighboring Districts 1 and 4 begin. I'm pretty sure that all of Litchfield County is in District 5...and Litchfield County went for Gore by only two points in 2000, and for Bush by more than five points in 2004. Beyond that I believe New Britain and other Democratic areas just west of Hartford and in the 5th, but also exurban Waterbury which saw one of the biggest shifts in the nation towards Republicans between 2000 and 2004 going for Gore by nearly 20 points in 2000, and then for Bush by about two points in 2004.

And beyond recent Presidential politics, I suspect that CT-05 is the state's most Republican district. They might be cool to Bush's brand of Republicanism, but I suspect that they'd have the highest proportion of Republicans in the CT Legislature of the five districts. Johnson's definitely beatable, but demographically less so than Simmons or Shays.

Posted by: Mark at November 28, 2005 03:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment