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Tuesday, November 15, 2005

FL-Sen: About That Senate Race...

Posted by DavidNYC

In case you were wondering why the Florida GOP is so desperate to replace Kathy Harris, wonder no more. Quinnipiac poll (registered voters, late Aug. in parens):

Nelson: 55 (57)
Harris: 31 (33)
Undecided: 12 (9)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Couple of things. If Harris does fall on her sword, I think we might have a fight on our hands. Nelson's re-elect is only 37-33 (but obviously with a huge bunch of undecideds, 29%). And on partisanship scores, Nelson does well at 83-7 among Dems, but Harris trails badly at just 63-22 among Republicans. A more likeable GOP candidate would definitely improve on those numbers, and in a state where the edge goes narrowly to the Republicans, that would really tighten this race up.

On the flipside, Harris clearly has some kind of hardcore fanatic base of support. A hypothetical matchup between her and Rep. Mark Foley shows Harris leading 46-29. Quinnipiac didn't poll on Bense, but I think Harris could win a three-way or a head-to-head with Bense as well. We can't relax about this race, and we cerainly can't even get a little bit comfortable until after the candidate filing deadline. And even then, the FL GOP might try to pull a Torricelli. But if it's Nelson v. Harris 'til the bitter end, then we should be alright.

UPDATE: Whoa, check this out: Harris' campaign manager just quit. Maybe Harris will be next to quite. (Via Political Wire.)

Posted at 01:48 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Florida | Technorati

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Comments

Harris' campaign manager quit today.

I hope she can hold on and snag the nomination. I want to see that bitch go down hard.

Posted by: Craig McLaughlin at November 15, 2005 02:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Youch!

I hope she gains in the polls a little. She certainly will crash and burn against Nelson and I don't want t stronger candidate to replace her.

Posted by: KansasNate at November 15, 2005 05:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i want her to crash and burn in the national spotlight....lets "support" her......I know I will....

Posted by: danny at November 15, 2005 07:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pretty pathetic pass the Dems have come tO: instead of proposing something folks might want to vote for, the strategy is to hope even more criminals and lunatics run on the GOP ticket. Anybody know any coyotes to smuggle me into Canada?

Posted by: DaveW at November 15, 2005 07:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DaveW: Can't we do both?

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 15, 2005 10:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DavidNYC: Apparently not.

Posted by: DaveW at November 16, 2005 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why not? I'm all in favor of Dems winning on the merits of having better, more compelling ideas. But if the GOP wants to help us by putting forward horrible candidates, that's just gravy.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 16, 2005 03:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Florida GOP and RNC is still wooing General Franks and a couple of other possible late entrants. And Harris is not an effective retail campaigner. Hell, in her first winning race her campaign sent her out of the country for the last two weeks. It worked; she won.

It will be kind of hard to do this in a Senate bid, though.

As for Kathy and her running mates' invincibility in a primary fight, I wouldn't count on it. They threw Billy Mac over the cliff for Martinez primarily on grounds of electability.

Sure, Stu Stevens' darling-of-the-homosexuals mailing for Martinez was the killing stroke...but it was piling on after the battle was decided. The Fla GOP made a rational decision based on the probability of winning the seat. They will again if given a choice.

Foley seems unlikely unless he concludes the GOP Hill leadership's refusal to give him a free pass on CAFTA will kill him in his sugar district. He is facing a very wealthy political novice in his House district. If both arms of the sugar lobby abandon him, he may just blot for the White Knight role in a Senate bid.

He has to be POd the Admin gave Capito in WV-02 a free pass on CAFTA while wooing her for the Senate but held his feet to the fire in a sugar district.

Wonder if they are considering leaning Gallagher out of the gubernatorial and into the Senate? He wouldn't run as strongly as Crist but certainly wouldn't be the drag Harris would be.

Posted by: pinhickdrew at November 17, 2005 04:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment