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Thursday, November 10, 2005

PA-Sen: No Mas! No Mas!

Posted by DavidNYC

Two polls came out today showing Rick Santorum, fully a year away from election day, getting utterly, completely demolished by his putative opponent, Bob Casey, Jr. The first is from Franklin & Marshall College and some media outfits and is known as the Keystone Poll (registered voters, September in parens); the second is from Rasmussen (likely voters, July in parens):

Keystone

Casey: 51 (50)
Santorum: 35 (37)
Undecided: 14 (13)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

---

Rasmussen

Casey: 54 (52)
Santorum: 34 (41)
Other: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Just when you thought things couldn't possibly get worse for Little Ricky, they do. I would not be at all surprised if the Republican Party is looking to "pull a Torricelli" here and replace Santorum with a more likeable candidate. At the very least, these polls give added credence to reports that the national GOP has already abandoned Sen. Man-on-Dog.

The Rasmussen poll is extra-interesting, though, because it shows you where Santorum is getting killed: Undecideds. (I'm presuming the balance of Rasmussen polls consist of people who haven't yet made up their minds, since they don't actually list an "undecided" line.) He dropped seven points in that group, which is devastating because those are precisely the people Ricky needs to win back if he wants to have a prayer. Good luck, bub.

P.S. Fans of Chuck Pennacchio: F&M did you a solid and actually asked a question on the Democratic primary, the first I've ever seen. Unfortunately, Chuck trails 67-5 with 28% undecided. Don't get me wrong - I like Chuck. But the odds of him rising from obscurity ala Howard Dean are slim indeed.

Posted at 10:54 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Technorati

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Comments

The only thing that can save Santorum is his warchest, which is sizeable. Casey's been making up the gap but he could use some help. Show him some love.

www.bobcaseyforpa.com

Posted by: jkfp2004 at November 11, 2005 12:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i think it's odd that didn't include pennacchio in the head to head with santorum when keystone polls 5 republicans against rendell. casey jr.'s favorable rating from the poll sunk 10% since June, two polling cycles ago. maybe people are seeing what the issues are and they don't agree with casey jr. pennacchio's camp hasn't done any advertising and the primary is half a year out, there's still plenty of time. as people learn what casey jr.'s stances are on key issues, the numbers will change.

Posted by: Albert Yee at November 11, 2005 06:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Albert, I agree that Keystone ought to have asked Pennacchio vs. Santorum. I would have been interested to see the answer because it would have demonstrated exactly how weak Santorum is.

That is to say, with Chuck's name rec so low, Santorum vs. Chuck would have been almost equivalent to Santorum vs. Generic Dem - ie, pretty much just gauging anti-Santorum (or pro-Dem) sentiment. I'd love to know the margin between Santorum v. Chuck and Santorum v. Casey.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 11, 2005 07:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If pollsters actually start putting Pennacchio head to head with Santourm then we can expect him to get more media attention and thus more recognition. 6 months is a lifetime in politics!

I'd also point out that the poll on Pennacchio v. Casey surveyed random PA Democrats, not necessarily the folks who are likely to vote in the primary. Very few voters actually show up for the primary. While Pennacchio's overall name recognition is still low, he's much more well known among the "super voters" who are much more likely to vote in primaries because he's visited many local progressive groups (i.e., DFA).

Even if Casey were the only Dem running I wouldn't give him a dime. I work hard for what little money I have and Casey doesn't represent my values.

Show a true progressive that values matter and contribute to his campaign:

www.chuck2006.com

Posted by: Dave at November 11, 2005 09:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Missouri Senate Race: Rasmussen puts McCaskill Solidly Leading Talent

It is painfully apparent that the Talent campaign is in deep trouble. For those who don't know, Jim Talent is the junior senator from Missouri. When Mel Carnahan posthumously defeated John Ashcroft, his widow Jeanne filled his seat for two tears, and then a special election was held to determine who would finish the six-year term. Mrs. Carnahan lost to Mr. Talent in November of 2002.

According to the latest poll results from Rasmussen, conducted November 9th, Claire McCaskill leads the former K Street lobbyist, Jim Talent, by a margin of 47-45. Among independent voters, Claire leads by 7 points. Talents fifteen minutes are just about up.

Posted by: Global Citizen at November 12, 2005 01:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Albert, exactly how much advertising can you do with $20,000 on hand? That might be enough to place a couple ads in, I don't know, a few Philadelphia alternative papers, but it's not going to buy widespread exposure.

Posted by: Craig McLaughlin at November 12, 2005 01:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Craig's absolutely right. 20K on hand, a year out is okay if your running for State Assembly, but if your running for US Senate especially in a state like PA, you can't expect to be competitive with that kind of money.

Posted by: safi at November 13, 2005 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment