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Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Reform Ohio Now: Election Results

Posted by Tim Tagaris

This is your one stop shopping for information on the Reform Ohio Now amdendments. You can follow the election results live at Ohio's Secretary of State Website. I'll be keeping a tally here and over at Grow Ohio while providing the latest information from what I see on local TV and a direct line to the good folks at RON in Cleveland. The polls close at 7:30 Eastern time, so start checking back in around then.

This Javascript box is a direct, live feed from the Ohio SoS website:

Percent Reporting: 75%

7:55 - The first results tally .3% of the precincts available, so I'll hold off on an updated chart. They show 2 & 3 leading narrowly, 4 and 5 trailing handily. The bad news is that they include returns from Cuyhahoga County (Cleveland area).

8:27 - Still too early. Less than 1% of the votes in right now, but all four are trailing, and big. The good news is that these are probably absentee. The bad news is that these returns include Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Mahoning Counties. This might not be good, at all, in the least. Still too early, again.

8:51 - Not good. Here's the deal on the county breakdowns. The counties with %'s reporting are most deeply red. The ones that we can generally count on, Cuyahoga, Athens, and Mahoning are are most absentee ballots at this point, but we are still trailing in those. Unfortunately, counties like Franklin and now Cuyahoga are starting to report numbers from today, and we still trail in those individual counties on the issues that should pass easily, 2 and 3.

9:38 - I think I am getting very very close to calling this as defeat for all four Reform Ohio Now amendments. Even the ones that should be passing (2 & 3) trail even in Cuyahoga, Mahoning, and Franklin Counties. This is not good news at all. Cuyahoga only has 12% reporting, so we'll see. But if those results hold up, and I think it will based on higher percentages coming in from Franklin and other areas we should be carrying, the evening is just about done. Unfortunately, the next update might bring news of concession on all four issues. At this point though, it's safe to say that Issues 4 and 5 will not pass, or even come close.

Posted at 07:52 PM in Reform Ohio Now | Technorati

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Tim Tagaris is liveblogging the election results for Reform Ohio Now: [Swing State Project] is your one stop shopping for information on the Reform Ohio Now amdendments. You can follow the election results live at Ohio's Secretary of State Website. [Read More]

Tracked on November 8, 2005 07:14 PM

Comments

You have Issue 4 listed twice. The last should be Issue 5.

Posted by: PoliticalLefty at November 8, 2005 07:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

with the early results coming in on ISSUE 4 from cuyahoga, erie, and lake showing losing this is going to be a dead loser :(

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 07:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It might not be just issue 4 that fails if those numbres are actually from the city.

Posted by: Tim Tagaris at November 8, 2005 08:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tim, hopefully these are just the absentees that trend Republican

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 08:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just confirmed that the Erie County results are absentees only

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I hope they all are, cause the early results in Franklin and Mahoning now show us trailing big on Issue Four.

Posted by: Tim Tagaris at November 8, 2005 08:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, so far things are not looking good. But we need to wait awhile I fear, because I'm confident that almost all of the early returns are absentee...

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 08:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, you are probably right. If you look at the county breakdowns, the ones with %'s reporting are red. The ones still at 0 (presumably absentee) with results include Cuya, Frank, Mahon, and Athens.

Posted by: Tim Tagaris at November 8, 2005 08:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

we're on the same page Tim...

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mahoning Yes 7,529 36.53%
No 13,079 63.47%
Precincts Reporting: 12% Total Votes 20,608
This tells me we are heading towards defeat. This reflects more than absentees, and we usually carry Mahoning by opposite numbers.

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 09:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's still early. It's still early. It's still early. :)

Posted by: yodude at November 8, 2005 09:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

More EXTREMELY BAD NEWS

Votes % Of Votes
State Issue 1
Yes 315,962 54.71%
No 261,580 45.29%
Breakdown By County Total Votes 577,542

Votes % Of Votes
State Issue 2
No 372,134 62.30%
Yes 225,220 37.70%
Breakdown By County Total Votes 597,354

Votes % Of Votes
State Issue 3
No 388,887 65.58%
Yes 204,141 34.42%
Breakdown By County Total Votes 593,028

Votes % Of Votes
State Issue 4
No 405,177 68.74%
Yes 184,290 31.26%
Breakdown By County Total Votes 589,467

Votes % Of Votes
State Issue 5
No 401,984 69.01%
Yes 180,529 30.99%
Breakdown By County Total Votes 582,513

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 09:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's all but official..... all RON Initiatives will fail tonight.

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 09:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The voting machines are rigged...just like in last election in ohio.

Do you really think Blackwell would let himself lose his power a year before he has to use it one last time...to get elected govenor?

Posted by: Jared86 at November 8, 2005 09:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Too Much Legalese!

Look, I'm a lawyer and I thought the amendments were way too wordy, especially for a Constitution.

With almost 1 million votes counted statewide, we're getting hammered. Next time remember the KISS method -- Keep It Simple Stupid.

STATEWIDE AT 9:50
2 No-64% Yes-35%
3 No-67% Yes-32%
4 No 70% Yes-29%
5 No 71% Yes-28%

Remember the anti-gay marriage Amendment last year. Two devastating sentences. That's all.

When you have to turn a page to read an amendment is doesn't stand a chance. The things read more like statutes, not guiding principles like a Constitution should have.

Rewriting them to only two or three clear, unambiguous sentences will level the playing field to the point where ads and further voter education will make a difference. These things didn't stand a chance no matter how fabulous the idea -- and they were.

And when we campaign, tell folks like Arnold "Thanks, but no thanks." He did more harm than good. We needed home grown talent, like John Glen who surely helped Issue One, but why wasn't he featured on any RON commercials? Where was Paul Hacket's face, Sherrod Brown? They needed to be FEATURED.

Remember, the republithugs will lie, and lie believably. Don't give them ammo like being able to take a grass roots, anti-establishment effort and paint is as some kind of out-of-state back room shenanigans.

And K.I.S.S.

Posted by: Mark Adams at November 8, 2005 10:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I want to believe what you posted Mark. I admit I didn't actually read the text of the amendments - just the information on RON's website. I hope whoever wrote the amendments learned a valuable lesson. Why didn't they know this? :(

I've only lived here a litte over a year and what I want to know is - do you guys think Ohio's too far gone in the pockets of the elite corrupt mob to ever be saved? We worked so hard on this and it's such a disappointment...

I know they tried to keep Issues 2-5 off the ballot - then we've got DIEBOLD counting the votes...

The worst part is nothing will chance by the '06 elections for the voters except more of us will have DIEBOLD TABULATORS counting our votes...

Ugh. (I'm going to bed but will check back in the morning to see if anyone answers. Thanks.)

Well, the happy news is unless the numbers mysteriously switch in the middle of the night, it looks like Kaine and Corzine won!

WHO'S COUNTING

Posted by: jen at November 8, 2005 10:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So, if the machines are crooked why do Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich and that other moonbat keep getting re-elected instead of pursuing honest work?

When a big organized effort comes from out of state, ninety some percent financed by out of state interests, don't expect people to roll over and accept it.

Just FYI I voted NO on all five issues today. I read and researched all the issues before going to the polls and I didn't like them. I didn't think that they were good for Ohio.

I don't believe that you have our interests at heart, indeed I believe that you only have your own interests at heart and don't give a rat's heiny about Ohio beyond what you can get out of the state.

Come on, your domain is registered in DC. What do you have to do with Ohio? Have any of you ever been here? Grassroots my 'lower unit'.

Posted by: StinKerr at November 8, 2005 11:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I'm the author of the post...and...ummm...I live in Canton. Unfortunately, Ohio First (registered in Delaware) and their $500,000 contributions from a single person carried the day today. Somewhere in Maumee, a rare coin deal feels the weight of the world lifted from his shoulders.

Tim

Posted by: Tim Tagaris at November 9, 2005 12:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for your response, Tim. I really expected to return to see my comment deleted.

I have no information on Ohio First. I did my research at a neutral site that didn't make any recommendations as to which way to vote. They laid out the proposed amendments and explained what they meant.

I know that there was a lot of finger pointing, accusations and counter accusations flying back and forth. I got emails from several organizations which I deleted unread.

I consider myself to be independent although I do lean right more than left. The issue determines which way I lean. This keeps me from wholeheartedly supporting either major party.

To me, this whole group of issues was a direct result of the 2004 elections and the sour grapes that resulted. Seeing lots of out of state interest and money pour into this made me leery too.

That rare coin dealer in Maumee shouldn't feel any relief. I want to get to the bottom of that affair and see prosecutions result, whomever it might involve. Not for a partisan agenda, for honest government and elimination of graft and corruption. That's one of the reasons I like to vote a split ticket. I can't watch the pols all the time so I try to set them to watching each other.

I don't know about the single donor for Ohio First. As you seem better informed on the matter of money, perhaps you can fill me in on how much Mr Soros, MoveOn and the other big donors put into the other side. None of those folks have Ohio interests at heart, I'm sure.

Thanks again.

StinKerr

Posted by: StinKerr at November 9, 2005 01:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As you seem better informed on the matter of money, perhaps you can fill me in on how much Mr Soros, MoveOn and the other big donors put into the other side.

What a whiny cop-out. Insinuate that some big, scary liberal types gave money to RON, but then fail to back it up with any research. Why don't YOU go look it up? Or do you not have access to Google?

While you're at it, you sound like a grand fool to dis Tim's commitment to Ohio when he, oh, lives in Ohio and blogs for a nice little site called Grow Ohio, which is the online face of an Ohio-based political group run by an Ohio representative.

P.S. My fiancee is from Cleveland. I visit there multiple times a year. We have strong ties there. Is Cleveland not in Ohio? You know, I forget.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 9, 2005 01:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well Stinkerr, for someone claiming nonpartisanship, you certainly have the talking points down:

1.) moonbat -- quite effective

2.) Sour Grapes from the 2004 election was right out of a ridiculous AP article the other day and partoted until the polls closed today.

3.) George Soros has been described as the face of RON by the Ohio Republican Party, even making his way onto literature, press releases, articles, and ads. Unfortunately, George Soros didn't contribute a dime to RON. MoveON had a link to contribute on their website, not that they raised that much, but the Republican party was trying to tie them to RON before MoveOn even uttered a single peep about the race.

Distract from the real issues at hand--that's the MO. If you really wanted reform in Ohio, you'd realize it isn't going to come from the party in power. No one makes more hay from the status quo than them.

Posted by: Tim Tagaris at November 9, 2005 02:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I must thank all the people who supported the reform attempt in Ohio. May have lost this time, but I wish you all the best of luck in carrying this forward.

Frankly I was a bit surprised at the partisan nature of the campaign given that these issues are critical to fair and honest government. Nonpartisan redistricting? Well, one day the Dems will be in power in Ohio ... anyway, I don't know if it could been different but it seemed from my distant vantage point that in the media it became the right (defending family values???) against the "left" (fighting the corruption of the Gov and these other folks), with a cameo by Arnold.

Here in Colorado, we had a Republican Governor and half the Republican party supporting referendum C to restore the state's finances to pre-recession levels (almost) -- and it squeaked by with 52%+.

People tend to vote "no" when they don't understand something. Did people understand 4 was about NONPARTISAN redistricting?

Incidentally, if there were any voting problems, I hope they can be thoroughly and fairly explored in this off-year non-partisan election.

Posted by: mcittone at November 9, 2005 10:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The plan for reforming Ohio is really quite SIMPLE.

Make sure there are solid and reputable non-partisan exit polls done on November 7, 2006.

If the "vote results" declared on November 8, 2006 are off by more than 4% from the exit polls, go to the streets with guns, knives, pitchforks, RPGs and anything else you can find, and do not leave until the situation is reversed. Study the history of the Ukraine if you need a lesson on how this is done.

And, make sure that you put up candidates who are strong enough that the race isn't within 5%.

The founders of this country knew there would be a time when we might have to seize power back from our own government. We must spend the next year preparing a placid, lazy, and easily distracted public for taking the most important step of their (and our republic's) history.

Easy? Hell no. But if you don't want to be sitting in a concentration camp in 2010 just because you dared to attempt to speak truth to power, then you had better be ready to destroy these monsters in 2006, and they will NOT go quietly into the night.

Charlie L
Portland, ORegon

Posted by: CyberChas at November 9, 2005 03:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Gee Charlie, try decafe.

Seriously, every time a great idea starts out in the weeds, the grass roots will get co-opted and/or stomped by those already there, who believe they have paid their dues through the party apparachik, and who have a personal stake in the outcome.

Learn from this, and don't give up. Here in Toledo bar owners (like me) fought for a reasonable exception to the city's anti-smoking legislation. We fought it in the courts, won, and the power that be did an end run and got a ban in place anyway.

We got a petition drive together, and again, those whose political future was connected to the ban managed to disallow our ballot initiative.

We didn't give up, learned from our mistakes, and took a plain spoken, reasonable proposal to the voters. Not only did we win, but the mayor who wanted to run on his "great leadership" in making the city completely smoke-free just got his walking papers in his relection bid.

Don't give up. Chalk this up to a learning experience. And next time K.I.S.S.

Posted by: Mark Adams at November 9, 2005 05:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You've got the right idea, Mark.

Issue 2 was unnecessary at best. Absentee voting is already available. Some of the other parts of it seemed to open the process to fraud.

Issue 3 severely limited individual contributions while throwing the door open to non-profits to pour enormous amounts into the process anonymously. Not a good thing. It was nearly one thousand words and appeared to be full of loopholes for those non-profits.

Issue 4 was probably a good idea but the board was not answerable to anyone and was specifially kept out of the jurisdiction of Ohio courts. It could have become a monster with no way to slay it.

Issue 5 was probably the best idea of the four. I might have voted for it myself but for its association with the other issues. Funny thing is that it got the most no votes. I think people were tired of wading through the other three and voted no for spite.

These four issues were voted down in every Ohio county. Even the "blue" counties voted no.

Next time K I S S as you said and avoid building in loopholes and you've got a chance.

It would also help if guys from NYC who visit Cleveland a lot didn't try to stick their nose into things that are none of their damn business. I've been to Cleveland many times too but they don't let me vote there.

Best wishes from Troy, Ohio.

Tim, if you have access to my email addy, email me. I've written an analysis on another blog that you might find interesting. I'd post it but, reading some of the other posts, I'm not so sure that it wouldn't attract the wrong kind of attention.

StinKerr

Posted by: StinKerr at November 11, 2005 05:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It would also help if guys from NYC who visit Cleveland a lot didn't try to stick their nose into things that are none of their damn business. I've been to Cleveland many times too but they don't let me vote there.

According to your logic, no one who isn't from a particular municipality should express opinions on what goes on there. Goodbye, almost all blogging, editorials and op-ed writing!

Anyhow, don't try to tell me what is and what isn't my starring business, troll. This is still a free country, and I'll express opinions on what I like and donate money where I like. Little thing called the First Amendment. Look it up.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 11, 2005 04:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment