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Monday, November 21, 2005

UT-Sen: Hatch Re-Elects Under Water

Posted by DavidNYC

I promise that this headline is not a mistake. As we all know, Utah is one of the last states in the nation where George Bush maintains anything approaching decent approval ratings (59-38 at last count) - hardly shocking, considering it went for Bush 72-26 (his single largest state margin).

So you'll understand my surprise - and I'll understand yours - at these poll numbers from the Deseret Morning News. Yep, Orrin Hatch still manages to pull in a nifty 67-25 approval rating according to the DMN, whose numbers are in line with SUSA's. But look at those re-elects:

Re-Elect Hatch: 45
Someone New: 48
(MoE: ±5%

And even 33% of Republicans want to see Hatch gone. I'm not saying that Hatch is going to lose, or even that he's seriously endangered, but there is something quite unusual about seeing a very senior and still-popular incumbent with underwater re-elect marks. As the DMN notes:

Historically, such polls of popular Utah politicians find that more than 50 percent of their constituents want them to be re-elected.

Now that doesn't surprise me. What this poll tells me is simply that there is a potentially very strong anti-incumbent wind a-brewin'. It won't be enough to knock down Orrin Hatch, but it'll leave a lot of weaker GOP politicians flat on their behinds.

I'd be remiss in not mentioning the fact that Hatch does have a bold challenger - one Pete Ashdown, an ISP owner. I gotta give anyone willing to run under such circumstances a lot of credit. And I also want to give him and his supports a tiny reed of hope. In 1988, Democrat Jim Sasser won re-election to the Senate in Tennessee by a whopping 65-35 margin. Six years later, during the Republican landslide of 1994, he lost by an astounding 56-42 to Bill Frist (yes, that Bill Frist). That's a turnaround of 44 points, in case you're counting.

I wouldn't read too much into this, though. As I've said before, I don't think 2006 won't be a replay of 1994 in reverse. And Utah is emphatically not Tennessee - the vote for Frist was part of a much broader, decades-long shift in the South away from the Dems and toward the GOP. Utah is, if anything, become more conservative, not less so. But Ashdown is still doing the right thing - even if he pins down Old Man Hatch for just a single weekend, that's a quarter mil Orrin isn't raising for one of his colleagues.

Posted at 11:14 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Utah | Technorati

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Comments

Why aren't you pushing this guy?

Julian Hatch for Utah Senate.

We can support a Hatch and vote Green!

Posted by: Zappatero at November 21, 2005 12:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, I do love the "Distinguished Gentleman" idea - "Jeff Johnson - it's the name you know." But I'm a Democrat, and barring wild and improbably scenarios, I support Democrats.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 21, 2005 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

While I will admit that these poll results are about as soft as the SF 49ers offensive line, they remain significant for '06. Pete Ashdown plans to paint himself as the better choice; not just the anti-Hatch, but someone who will do better things for Utahns because he listens to them. Visit his website www.peteashdown.org
As far as Julian Hatch goes, good luck to him; Ashdown's hope is that the ballot will be arranged to have Julian first.

Posted by: brett at November 21, 2005 04:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I nearly cried laughing from this dKos post:

------------------------------------------------

Pete Ashdown, the nerdiest-looking candidate for federal office since Steve Forbes, and would be the first US Senator to have dj'ed raves under the nom de disc of "DJ XDZebra".

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at November 21, 2005 05:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Pete Ashdown, the nerdiest-looking candidate for federal office since Steve Forbes, and would be the first US Senator to have dj'ed raves under the nom de disc of "DJ XDZebra"."

Tom Coburn dj'ed raves under the name of "DJ Tough Tom"

Posted by: RBH at November 21, 2005 05:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment