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Monday, November 07, 2005

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

We forgot to put one of these up yesterday, so tell us today: What races are you following?

Posted at 11:59 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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...

St. Paul, MN Mayoral race.

The current mayor, Kelly, has done a great
job all around. He really deserves to get re-elected.
BUT he endorsed Bush in 2002.

so b-bye

He will be run out of town on a rail tomorrow
with that endorsement hung around his neck
like a 2 ton yoke.

Its the curse of Bush.

Dance with the Devil and pay later.
Time to pay up Kelly.

...

Posted by: wellstoner at November 7, 2005 11:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In NYC, Dems often endorse Republicans seemingly with impunity - look at all the weaklings shilling for Bloomberg, for one. But many have done things in the past like endorse Giuliani and even Pataki. These people are never, ever punished.

So I'm glad to see that the good people of St. Paul have the sense to punish this kind of disloyalty.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 7, 2005 11:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am intrested in the Republican Primary in Alabama, as it looks as though Baxley will level Siegelman in the Democratic primary. In a recent straw poll among Jefferson County Republicans (heavily pro-business & pro-Riley) Roy Moore managed an amazing 70 votes to Riley's 153.

Posted by: Tal East at November 7, 2005 11:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm surprised at the extent to which Randy Kelly's endorsement of Bush is destroying his campaign. I told my sneering Republican comrades at the time that I didn't think Kelly's endorsement would go over well with the more than 70% of St. Paul residents that were gonna be voting against him, but I didn't think it would end up being a more than 2-1 blowout like it now looks like it will be. It doesn't help any that Kelly is running such a clueless and condescending campaign...or that challenger Chris Coleman is clubbing Kelly over the head with subtle anti-Bush jabs every chance he gets. I expect one of my highlights of tomorrow evening will be Kelly's concession speech....undoubtedly delivered with Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman not too far away.

As for the NYC Mayoral race, I'm stunned at how well Bloomberg is doing. I'm not overly familiar with his policies, but having watched him on TV defending Bush even within the context of discussing budget cuts being imposed on American cities, I wasn't impressed. Furthermore, I think Bloomberg's policy on tobacco taxes represents a trend that is both regressive and hazardous to national security. By artificially pricing cigarettes so far beyond their market value, smuggling cheap tobacco state cigarettes to sell in the NYC black market has become the #1 source of financing for terrorist cells. It would be tragically ironic if Bloomberg's post-9/11 revenue-building response actually financed the next 9/11, but that's a real possibility with as profitable as he is making cigarette smuggling for terrorists. That issue alone should be enough to toss him out of city hall.

Posted by: Mark at November 7, 2005 11:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I dunno about the tobacco thing. I mean, wouldn't terror rings just sell more drugs if there weren't a black mkt in tobacco?

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 7, 2005 12:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Perhaps, but I don't think expanding the number of smuggled products that finance terror cells is beneficial. The trendline is towards over-the-top and horribly regressive "sin taxes" imposed upon every non-puritanical good or service as a means of making up desperately-needed revenue to fill public coffers being drained by tax cuts and cuts in city and state aid. I'm opposed to this on libertarian grounds and desperately hoping to avoid succumbing to a health-and-wellness police state which scares me at least as much as anything the Religious Right is doing....but I also oppose it because artificially spiking the prices of a good or service through "sin taxes" has the same effect as a prohibition, outsourcing distribution of that product to the criminal black market. If current trends continue, we'll probably see alcoholic beverages and junk food succumb to the same level of taxation as NYC is currently imposing on tobacco. Perhaps the terrorist cells commandeering the smuggling will be less dependent on drug smuggling for their financing, but if they're still filling their pockets with American cash to later wage attacks against us, does it really matter?

Posted by: Mark at November 7, 2005 12:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Now back to races I'm interested in....

I've given quite a bit of thought this past week to how the Samuel Alito hearings next January are likely to impact the Senate races. My guess is that the Altio nomination process will help us in Washington, New Jersey and probably Maryland. But the state where it could help us most is Rhode Island since Lincoln Chafee is screwed no matter which way he goes. Chafee may need to vote for Alito's confirmation to save himself from what is expected to a rough primary battle next spring against a "real Republican." On the other hand, confirming Alito will be one more strike against Chafee in the general election, where the Dems will try to paint him as at least marginally beholden to the Bush administration.

On the other hand, there are races where I think the Alito hearings will hurt the Democrats. Even though the majority of public opinion is on the side of choice when it comes to abortion, the majority of that majority lives within 50 miles of the West or East Coast. A high-profile two-month battle over the Alito nomination is likely to reinforce the belief of conservative heartland Democrats that the post-DLC Democratic Party stands for abortion rights and abortion rights alone. Much as the Dems may try to get in legitimate grievances about Alito's support of strip-searching 10-year-olds and usurping the Family Medical Leave Act, you can be sure the media will keep the discussion permanently focused on abortion, showing a steady stream of footage of Barbara Boxer and Ted Kennedy grilling Alito on the evening news. This will not be a pretty development for Claire McCaskill in Missouri or Harold Ford in Tennessee, and possibly either Brown or Hackett in Ohio.

For this reason, I wish we could get the Alito hearings over with now while the public is fuming at Bush rather than waiting until January when it's closer to the elections. The Republicans won several Senate seats in the South last year by nationalizing them. If the Alito hearings get as ugly as we're being told they may, it could hurt us again. I'm sensing that with Biden's pullback on filibuster prospects, the Democrats recognize the Alito fight is one not likely to be won...and thus one they may want to sit out.

Posted by: Mark at November 7, 2005 12:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the VA Governors race. I am hoping the state is becoming more Blue. Also, the PA Senate race. I'd love to see Santorum get out of the way.

I am closely following the mayoral race in Buffalo, NY and the Erie County, NY legislature races. The City of Buffalo, The Buffalo School Board and the County of Erie have all had a financial meltdown and are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. In fact, a state control board has been conviened to take over the finances of each of these bodies. A taxpayer revolt took place last year which resulted in 8 of 15 legislators deciding against a run for re-election. I am hoping it continues. Neither mayoral candidate is particularly good for reform, but Buffalo could get it's first black mayor. These candidates will be incharge of getting a new international bridge built, getting 120 acres of lakefront property redeveloped, steering the city through a possible city/county merger, a multi-million dollar inner harbor redevelopment project, a three-quarters of a billion dollar outer harbor redevelopment project, continuing to strengthen the billion dollar bio-medical corridor that has been built and continuing the repopulation of downtown. Not to mention trying to move the regions economy from industrial to service, and a whole host of other ongoing development issues.

Posted by: cltpie28 at November 7, 2005 02:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We have a city council race in Issaquah, WA that is becoming increasingly important within Western Washington.

It appears that the Republicans may attempted money laundering in order to ensure that candidates in favor of a bypass around the town that's riddled with environmental problems, and that would be in violation, potentially, of urban growth management guidelines for the county...

http://www.mcgladrey-family.us/kayne/

What makes this even more interesting is that far eastern King County appears to be an "incubator" for stealth candidates that can appear to be "suburban safe", but most definitely aren't what they appear to be. Our last Republican candidate for Governor and our present Republican candidate for Executive of King County (the most well-off county in Wshington state, which includes Seattle) come from around here, and both have assembled serious callenges largely through their dubious self-presentations.

Posted by: palamedes at November 7, 2005 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Terrific!!!
A Survey USA poll finds Tim Kaine (D) leading Jerry Kilgore (R), 52% to 43%.

Posted by: dougyg at November 7, 2005 03:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have been waiting all week for this thread! I am watching the Kansas Attorney General's race! Does anyone outside of Kansas or the KC Metro area know about this?

Some background: In 2002, Kansas elected the ultra-conservative Phil (KK)Kline to the post of AG. Since taking office, he has waged a jihad against abortion rights and abortion providers. He has subpoenaed medical records from clinics, under the guise of looking for evidence of the crime of child sexual abuse. It is a thinly disguised attempt to put his own personal bordering-on-the-deranged belief system forth as the will of Kansans.

Well, enter Paul Morrison. Morrison was the quite capable and much-loved Republican Prosecuting Attorney in Johnson County Kansas. He took over that post when Congressman Dennis Moore (D, KS 3rd) left the post for higher office.

Last week, Paul Morrison switched parties to run against Phil Kline. This was front page news in the Kansas City Star for a few days. The Democrats welcomed it with glee, and the Republicans tried to spin it away, like he never was one of them anyway, not really...But still "We are pissed at this betrayal!"

Some people switch their ethics around to fit their party. Morrison switched his party because it fit with his ethics. Gotta love that.

Posted by: Global Citizen at November 7, 2005 04:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have been following the California special election. I know it's not a swing state, but the forces we are fighting in this race are being fought in more swing states across the country, which is why a victory for our side is so important. Gov. Schwarzenegger is counting on turning out right-wing conservatives to vote on a wedge issue (abortion notification for teenagers - Prop 73), while many on our side are too disgusted with the whole thing to even be motivated to vote.

We have a voter guide on our site: http://speakoutca.org

If you live in California or have friends and family there, be sure to remind them to vote tomorrow!

:)

-Jenifer

Posted by: Jen Ancona at November 7, 2005 07:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

2006 Western Gubernatorial Races. I beleive that these races will help determine which states will "go blue" in 2008.

Posted by: Lucon at November 7, 2005 07:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Of course I'm supposed to be paying attention to every race everywhere, but I'm especially interested in seeing Michael P. Carroll lose to Thom Jackson in the 25th district assembly race here in New Jersey. Carroll is a wingnut lunatic who doesn't belong within 100 yards of the state of New Jersey. The Jackson campaign put together a pretty funny parody website taking Carroll to task for his ridiculous positions.

The NJ 25th is in reliably red Morris County, but it is still New Jersey after all. A guy like Carroll, who attacks pro-choice voters as 'pro-aborts' and claims embryonic stem cell research will lead to clone farming, is out of touch on planet Earth, much less in Jersey.

Posted by: Scott Shields at November 7, 2005 08:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Being from Minnesota myself, I have a natural bis towards my own races here. We have three competitive house seats, and though the 2nd and 6th are considered to be more so than the 1st, I've been watching Tim Walz and, despite the fact that the Dems in Southern MN are tight with their money, I think he's got a strong chance.

Likewise, the SOS here has the potential to be interesting. Our current SOS, a GOP stooge hoping for a higher office someday, is a mini-Harris. I really like both DFL candidates, but I give the edge to Christian Sande. He really knows his stuff,

Then there's the Senate race. Go Patty! Being at school only a city away from Patty Wetterling, I have yet another bias towards her. But she can get legislative stuff done, and she works her butt off. She's an all-around spectacular person and candidate. When talking with her, you really get a sense of what makes her tick.

Posted by: Da Polga at November 7, 2005 08:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Da Polga, I'm from MN-01 and had my first chance to listen to Tim Walz this past weekend. I was very impressed with both his charisma and his organization (sitting across the table from one of the hotties on his staff sealed the deal for me). It'll take a perfect storm to oust Gutknecht, but if we're ever gonna do it, this is the year. As for MN-02, I'm not too optimistic there. Rowley's got the name recognition but doesn't appear to be inspirational as a candidate. On top of that the district is very Republican (Carver and Scott Counties...the gruesome twosome).

If Patty Wetterling had decided to go after MN-06 now that Kennedy's vacating it, I think we'd have an outstanding ability to pick up that seat. Without her, it'll be a real battle. I know the Dems have a candidate, but I can't recall his name. Hopefully he has some charisma. It's an open seat and despite the strong GOP tendencies of the district, I think it could be winnable in a perfect storm.

And I think we may really a good chance at picking off that troll Kiffmeyer in the Secretary of State race. I had an extensive chat with Christian Sande on Saturday night and was also very impressed with him. We both agreed that his Scandinavian surname should go over well in Minnesota....and in the low-profile state offices, one's last name is often the deciding factor. Bottom line: If the Democratic trendline continues next November, we'll sweep all three constitutional offices in Minnesota, including that sow (albeit an attractive sow) Pat Anderson in the Auditor's office. Just as important is keeping Jeff Johnson out of the Attorney General's seat. That guy might be second only to Phil Kline of Kansas in terms of AG candidate scariness.

Posted by: Mark at November 7, 2005 08:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark,

Yeah, the 2nd is rather dissapointing. I am originally from the 2nd, and I've been keeping up a bit with Rowley's campaign. I agree with your synopsis.

Patty in the 6th is an interesting bit. People from Districts 2,3,4, and 5 (metro) always seem to say that she should stick in the 6th, and people from 1,6,7,and 8 (outstate) say that she should stick with Senate. I don't think the first group knows how hard it is for someone as liberal as Patty to run in the 6th. It was Greg Hansen, the 6th DFL Chair, who originally asked Patty to run for Senate in fact.

The two candidates we have in the 6th are El Tinklenburg, who is extremely socially conservative and who has national backing, and Scotty Mortensen, who is running a real grassroots campaign and reminds me in multiple ways of PDW. Advantage so far: El.

Posted by: Da Polga at November 8, 2005 02:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll be watching the California special election from the offices of the team who've been fighting it, and blogging about it at BetterCA.com. These issues represent not only the future of California, but the future of progressive political action in this country. If we loose to the governor's right-wing agenda, we'll be digging out for years to come. But, we won't lose. The polling shows things shifting our way, and our field team has done a phenomenal job of building a GOTV operation that encompasses the entire state of California (which is no mean feat). The results will start coming in at 8:01 PST and we'll be covering them at BetterCA.com.

I'm also watching the Ohio initiatives. I'm a former, and soon to be again Ohioan. RON could have the power to bring real change to Columbus, and to the polling place, and it's SO necessary. It pained me to visit my old neighborhood on election day last year, and see lines out the doors, and people standing in the rain to vote. It pains me to see the 60% Republican majority drive the state into the ground, and line their own pockets. And in less than two weeks, I'll be back in Ohio, working for a candidate I really believe in.

Posted by: Brew at November 8, 2005 11:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

hummm... you talking about Paul Hackett??

Posted by: OH-09Dem at November 8, 2005 02:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The race that I am keeping an eye on is the one that I am working on --- PA-18 where Tom Kovach, a navy vet,engineer and a Democrat from the Democratic wing of the party is running an aggressive grassroots campaign against Tim Murphy. Tom is the only declared Democrat in the race, and it is looking unlikely that there will be other challengers at this time. We have locked up a significant fraction of the Southwest Pennsylvania for Kerry campaign organizers and staffers who were able to run successful operations despite the efforts of paid campaign staff. Right now we are in outreach and name recognition mode but we will beat Tim Murphy next November in this relatively neutral to slightly lean GOP district just south and east of Pittsburgh.

Posted by: Fester 986 at November 9, 2005 09:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment