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Sunday, November 13, 2005

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

We'll get the open thread started a bit early this week. The 2005 off-year elections have come and gone, and we kicked some serious ass. Now it's really time to look ahead to 2006. So, what races are you following?

Posted at 11:59 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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I'm still following the race to oust Pombo in California's 11th CD.

This week I realized that in 2004, about 25,000 voters in San Joaquin County portion of CA-11 (which is the part of the district that gives Pombo his margin of victory) voted for both Barbara Boxer and Richard Pombo. Incidentally, in this part of the district only 70,000 voted for Boxer and 95,000 voted for Pombo.

I'm a bit at a loss to explain this. Is it just incumbency and money? If anyone has any thoughts about this, I'd welcome them.

Also, I'm going to see Margee Ensign speak this Thursday. So far the only person I know who's met her is a co-author at my blog. If she makes a good impression on Thursday, she could quiet quickly garner significant grassroots support in the East Bay, which is now somewhat outside her area of influence. I should have a report up on my blog by Friday. And I'll try to drop a note here next week.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at November 12, 2005 04:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH Gov. Latest Zogby poll shows a tight race in Ohio.

In head-to-head match-ups with Republicans who have held statewide office for a combined 30 years, Democrat Mike Coleman beats all three. He also fairs better than Democratic primary rival Congressman Ted Strickland.

Mike now has the most momentum in the race, claiming the most votes (44.2%) of all five Democratic and Republican candidates. Mike garners the most support and developing the largest margin of victory.

*Summary of the Zogby Poll*

Ken Blackwell, who was running just ahead of Congressman Ted Strickland and Mayor Michael Coleman in an October Zogby poll, now trails both. Jim Petro trails Strickland by 8.5% and was 6.5% behind Coleman. Montgomery's poll numbers were just as bad, lagging behind Strickland by 8% and trailing Coleman by 9.7%. (MoE 3.2%)

Coleman 44.2% versus Blackwell 42.9%

Strickland 43.9% versus Blackwell 42.2%

Posted by: Bryan Clark at November 12, 2005 05:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Let's go with the Missouri Senate race this week. Another encouraging Rasmussen poll showed McCaskill now running two points ahead of GOP incumbent Jim Talent. It'd be nice to see a non-Rasmussen, non-Zogby Interactive poll for the MO Senate race, just to see if Talent's vulnerability is more than a mirage created by a couple bad polls. For now, however, I'm optimistic, particularly with McCaskill on the ticket. Even though I know very little about her, it seems as though she's the beneficiary of narrowly losing the gubernatorial race to wildly unpopular wingnut Matt Blunt last year. Combine that with Bush's 38% approval in MO and it surely seems like there's a backlash against the red tide that has swept Missouri at the state and national level in the last five years.

Geographically, Missouri is an increasingly tough nut to crack. Out of 114 counties, John Kerry won three of them last year. Even Claire McCaskill only won 13 counties compared to Matt Blunt's 101 in the Governor's race. Missouri is Kansas City and St. Louis with Alabama in between more so even that Pennsylvania. Nonetheless, the low-income, meth-ravaged rural areas in northern Missouri are crackable, as Bill Clinton was twice victorious in many of the counties hovering near the Iowa border, as well as several places in central Missouri near Columbia. Most of Southern Missouri, particularly the Ozark southwest including Springfield, Joplin and Branson is likely impenetrable, but if we can pick off some places in the northern and central portions of the state, we can offset the Southern Baptist wingnuts in the southwest quadrant along with Rush Limbaugh country in the southeast. Clearly, McCaskill needs more than just KC and STL to win in Missouri though, and I hope she can find an angle to appeal to voters in the rural areas.

As I indicated last week, my fear about this race is that a contentious round of hearings for Samuel Alito that involves daily inquiries on Alito "taking away a woman's right to choose" will not serve McCaskill's cause well in pro-life Missouri. Hopefully, I'm overstating the significance of the Alito hearings, but Missouri is ground zero for minimum-wage values voters...and if they feel they're "this close" to criminalizing abortion, voting out Jim Talent doesn't seem like the next logical step.

Posted by: Mark at November 12, 2005 05:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Paul Hackett released a great video on his site the other day, which can be found here: http://www.hackettforohio.com/day1

Only problem is that it's offline right now... but when it comes back up, do check it out--it was a very inspiring clip that showed Hackett working the state for grassroots support and firing up local Ohio Democrats. That and this radio interview have really fired me up about his candidacy:
http://www.hackettforohio.com/uploads/audio/miller_interview.mp3

I'm also interested in George Allen's Senate seat, as Chuck Schumer just indicated that the DSCC wants to make a fight out of it given Kaine's win of the Governor's mansion. I wonder who will carry the flag.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at November 12, 2005 05:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sandwich: Talk has been about James Webb challenging Allen. Webb is a former Secretary of the Navy - for Ronald Reagan. Simply the fact that people are even discussing the idea of a high-profile Republican switching sides says a lot. I don't recall anything like this even a year ago.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 12, 2005 06:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think that the florida gubenitorial and senate race should be interesting, another race that looks promising is Rep. Clay Shaws seat. I believe he represents Fl. district 22. He is being challenged by Robert Watson, a university political science professor and Ron Kline who happens to be florida senate minority leader.

Posted by: danny at November 12, 2005 06:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Who is running in FL-Gov? That race hasn't been on my radar at all. I still feel a bit like a goof for thinking Bill McBride would beat Jeb Bush 3 years ago... obviously, I let too much wishful thinking get the better of me.

Posted by: DavidNYC at November 12, 2005 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm focusing on the KY races mainly especially KY-2, KY-3, and KY-4. I just now noticed that Bluegrass Report is on the sidebar. Mark does a good job with the site.

Posted by: Daniel at November 12, 2005 08:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm following the daily bad news for Ralph Reed here in GA. His exploits are front page news from time to time. The GA GOP has been trying to get him out of the race to no avail. He'll probably be the nominee and drag the entire party down in '06

Posted by: Ga6thDem at November 12, 2005 08:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pombo in CA CD-11.

Posted by: Rolfyboy6 at November 12, 2005 08:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Let's not forget Harold Ford in the TN Senate race. He released an internal poll last week that shows him leading all his Republican rivals, within the margin of error. His fundraising is good, he's young and telegenic, and Bush's approval is way down in TN. And if he wins, he'd be the first black southern senator since Reconstruction.

It just so happens I have a blog on his behalf:

http://forwardwithford.blogspot.com

Check it out!

Posted by: davidbander at November 12, 2005 08:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Two races: PA-Sen. I think its going to end up being much closer than it looks now, and it will be interesting to see how the culture issues play out given Casey's pro-life stance.
Also, the OH-Sen Dem primary. I think its a shame that both these guys stumbled into a contested race. I think the first primary poll well be very interesting, and I wonder if any of the experts care to predict what it will show?

Posted by: msn1 at November 12, 2005 08:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA - Senate - Eventhough I'm tempted to jump the gun and call Allen vulnerable, I know better. There has been a lot of talk lately of former Secretary of Navy James Webb runing against George Allen. In my opinion, James Webb would pull in votes similar to that of Kaine. His military background would help him take Tidewater. He may be able to take Henrico in the Richmond area. He'd sweep Northern VA, Charlottesville-Albemarle, and Roanoke which would equal victory... It is too far out to tell. Im just going off of what he looks like on paper.

08 Presidential - I personally don't get the appeal of anyone who made that list that was posted. With all do respect we 3 presidential losers Kerry-Edwards and Al Gore and a primary loser in Clarke(eventhough I think he's the best one on the list). Then there is Hillary who will pick up the same states as Kerry minus Wisconsin and possibly minus Pen. I would love to see Warner grab the nomination and select Clarke as a runing mate to make up for his lack of foreign policy experience. Warner would take VA which gives us 265 in electoral votes and I feel confident he would take Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio. This would be enough to put us over the top eventhough I think he would also be competitve in Missouri, Florida, and possibly North Carolina and Georgia(?). No other candidate on that list could do this.

Posted by: UVA08 at November 12, 2005 08:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There are two Democratic candidates for PA-4 (Malissa Hart's seat). I would like to know if either of these candidates are a serious threat. Are there any polls out there to show Hart's level of support?

Posted by: TR from PA at November 12, 2005 09:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark; Remember that Claire McKaskill is polling 2 points ahead and we have not even seen her, or any advertising for her candidacy in Democratic strongholds Kansas City and St. Louis. She is thus far pursuing a rural strategy and it seems to be paying off. (I posted the entry below the bold on my site earlier today, and on another thread here. I get redundant only when I feel a topic is of vital importance. This is up there with my big news 15 years ago..."Have you heard of The Traveling Wilburies?" "Oh God! I have to make you a tape!"

I just think that Missouri is possibly a sleeper state in our favor. Roy Blunt's son has screwed this state seven ways from Sunday as our boy-governor. He is a freaking embarassment, and his policies hurt average Missourians, who are awakening to that fact. I believe we have a real chance, especially with the right presidential candidate to turn the entire state next time. I just have to believe!

Missouri Senate Race: Rasmussen puts McCaskill Solidly Leading Talent

**It is painfully apparent that the Talent campaign is in deep trouble. For those who don't know, Jim Talent is the junior senator from Missouri. When Mel Carnahan posthumously defeated John Ashcroft in 2000, his widow Jeanne filled his seat for two years, and then a special election was held to determine who would finish the six-year term. Mrs. Carnahan lost to Mr. Talent in November of 2002.According to the latest poll results from Rasmussen, conducted November 9th, Claire McCaskill leads the former K Street lobbyist, Jim Talent, by a margin of 47-45. Among independent voters, Claire leads by 7 points. Talents fifteen minutes are just about up.

I am willing to do whatever I can to help vital candidates in other areas. In exchange, can I get some outlying help working for Claire? We are all in this together. It's in everyones interest to walk away from 2006 with a Democratic Majority in at least one chamber, and a two vote sway in the other, occupied by moderates.

Posted by: Global Citizen at November 12, 2005 09:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

the big contenders in the democratic primary are Rod smith and Rep. Jim Davis, from what I have heard it sounds like Jim Davis is likey to win the democratic primary which i think is good. On the republican side there is Tom Gallagher, who has ran like a million times for a million different positions and has no success and then there is our attorney general, Charlie Christ. I have had the oppertunity to meet Christ, his views are so radical that he makes president bush look like a die hard liberal, if we lose the gubenitorial election, all hope for the democratic party in this state is lost.

Cruella de-ville is still running a disastorous campaign aganist bill nelson but luckily her campaign cannot get off its feet.

Finally, Clay Shaw, FL. district 22 rep. would have lost in 04 if Jim Stork, his democratic opponent had not fallen ill and taken himself out of the race. Clay Shaw was bushs point man in congress for Passing the Cafta agreement and is a major Delay Crony, District 22 encompasses a large tract of surburban south Florida, from Fort Lauderdale to Boca Raton, which just so happens to encompass the most liberal areas of the state. If there is a seat to win in 06 it is his!

Posted by: danny at November 13, 2005 01:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here in North Carolina, there are two Congressional races that will be interesting. Heath Shuler, a former football star, is running to replace Charles Taylor, one of the six most corrupt Congressmen accourding to the DNC, in NC-11. And Dunn, an Iraq war veteran, is running against the Republican incumbent in NC-8.

Posted by: TarGator at November 13, 2005 03:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Global Citizen, it's encouraging to hear that Claire McCaskill is employing a rural strategy in her attempt to unseat Jim Talent. If we can win back even 15% of the rural voters that voted for Bush twice and for Matt Blunt last year, we should be able to win this race. Plus, I believe McCaskill is from a farm area in rural central Missouri. Meanwhile, Jim Talent is from suburban St. Louis, which he represented in Congress before becoming a Senator, which could offset at least some of the growing Democratic advantage in St. Louis's western suburbs. It should be an exciting race.

danny, I read somewhere that Clay Shaw's district got more Republican after 2002 redistricting. He almost lost in 2000 when Al Gore won Broward County by more than 2-1. I agree with you that this is a district where we desperately need to win if we have any hope of getting a majority in the House. I can't understand how Shaw was able to win in his old or new district considering how Democratic Broward County is.

Posted by: Mark at November 13, 2005 03:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CT-02

This is one of the bluest Congressional Districts in the country with a Republican congressman. This is a seat that the Democrats should be able to take back!! We are not a wealthy district (Eastern CT), and Rob Simmons, the Republican, has already gotten money from Tom Delay's PAC (and kept it), so the Democrat JOE COURTNEY will need some outside money to match the Rs. Simmons usually slings mud in the last week, and it takes plenty of money to respond quickly and loudly.

Posted by: MVD at November 13, 2005 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is in response to TR in Pa's post. I do not have specific polling data on Hart's seat. But the prevailing wisdom in the area is that she is vulnerable to at least some extent. Both Berner and Altmire are both viable candidates and both have some good people around them. All in all I would say I like our chances in that district although it is far from an easy victory.

Posted by: JDF at November 13, 2005 06:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In addition to PA-4 there is also an interesting race shaping up in PA-3. Republican encumbent Phil English is niether overly popular or a particularly good congressmen. Steven Porter has announced that he is going to run against him for the second time, and does provide democrats an interesting choice. The big question in regards to Steven Porter is whether or not he can raise the money necessary to unseat an encumbent.

Posted by: JDF at November 13, 2005 06:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Isn't Melissa Hart's district near Ohio's Mahoning Valley, occupying Beaver County and the cities of New Castle and Sharon? If I have my geography right, it's frightening that the Republicans were ever able to carry this seat in the first place. It would have been unthinkable just 15 years ago.

As for Connecticut, another thing cutting in our favor for unseating two or even three GOP House incumbents is the coattails of Joe Lieberman. While he's certainly not my favorite Senator, his appeal to Independents and Republicans could have down-ticket consequences for Simmons, Shays and maybe even Nancy Johnson.

Posted by: Mark at November 13, 2005 07:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CT has 5 seats, 2 that are safe Democratic seats and 3 that are currently held by Republicans in districts that went for Gore and Kerry. I am watching all three - Shays, Simmons, and Johnson are all facing tough challengers and can be knocked off.

Slightly off topic - I would be interested in a post-mortem on the Ohio initiatives - It seems hard to believe that three of the initiatives could lose 20-40 points between the polls and the vote, no matter how sketchy the polling was.

Posted by: thekickingdonkey at November 13, 2005 08:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I would love to see information on the effort to defeat Congressman Richard Pombo. An environmental pirate and pillager. Listed as one of the most corrupt in the country, but from a pretty red district.

Posted by: Retired Catholic at November 14, 2005 01:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Alabama governor's race, starring incumbent Bob Riley and challenger Roy Moore on the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley and recently indicted, acquited and indicted again former Gov. Don Siegelman on the Democratic side.

Interestingly, Moore is going to have to take a course on website security. One of his sites -- www.morallaw.org -- has been hacked. You can't get to the home page directly, but you can see it here:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=roy+moore&btnG=Google+Search

Posted by: quaoar at November 14, 2005 08:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey - Anybody realize (other than me) that in the drop down menu there is not ALASKA category ?????

Just thought you might add the 49th state for grins :)

I think every other state is listed in the dropdown menu.

FYI --
Thanks !!! (even though I live in Florida i like to look at whats going on and where we have chances to take back the House and Senate in '06

We'll never win Alaska if we don't have something to comment on there.

I would love to see referenced articles of "The Bridge to Nowhere"

Posted by: USA#1 at November 14, 2005 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually ther are only 44 States Listed in the Dropdown Menu ... I'll try to determine which ones are missing.

Posted by: USA#1 at November 14, 2005 01:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Alaska
Delaware
Oaklahoma
South Dakota
Kansas

Are All Missing

Posted by: USA#1 at November 14, 2005 01:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One more I just can't figure out.

Ah ... Idaho

Posted by: USA#1 at November 14, 2005 01:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment