« LA-02/06: Katrina Changes the Demographics | Main | UT-Sen: Hatch Re-Elects Under Water »
Monday, November 21, 2005
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCIt's that time again. Who's hot, who's not, who's in, who's out?
Posted at 10:59 AM in Open Threads | Technorati
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/1973
Comments
I gotta go with the New Jersey Senate race. Things are in such flux at this point that it's making me nervous. Bush's approval ratings are low, but the idea of a Tom Kean victory isn't as far-fetched now as I thought it was three weeks ago. The disorganization on the part of the Democrats is very concerning and the worst-case scenario is that Corzine's ultimate pick, whoever that may be, is undermined by primary voters taking away the momentum of incumbency.
I've always heard Bob Menendez is a likely front-runner for Corzine's successor, but have also heard he has some baggage. I think if acting Governor Richard Codey can be convinced to take the seat, we'd be wise to go with him. We need someone with the charisma (which I don't know if Codey has) to take down Kean, but also a clean background that won't give New Jersey voters pause. I can't think of a worse scenario that losing a Senate majority because we couldn't hang onto a seat in New Jersey.
Posted by: Mark ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at November 19, 2005 02:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm not sure what you mean by "disorganization," Mark. I mean, right now, you have a whole bunch of guys scrambling for the appointment, and I'm not sure it would be politic for Corzine to announce his pick before he actually gets sworn in. I expect things to be a bit chaotic until Corzine names his guy.
Personally, I'm in favor of Rush Holt. He's pretty young and also doesn't have the baggage that other long-time NJ politicians have.
Posted by: DavidNYC at November 19, 2005 02:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David, the lack of a clear front-runner worries me a little, but the prospect of an inter-party primary squabble even after Corzine's appointment worries me more, especially with a unified GOP behind Kean...and Kean currently leading in the polls against everyone but Codey.
While Rush Holt would probably be the most electable member of NJ's Democratic House coalition, I think the competitiveness of his House district will work against him this year. Since the Dems are trying to win both the Senate and the House, I'm guessing Rahm Emanuel would lobby against a Holt Senate run out of fears it could cost the Dems a safe House seat.
Posted by: Mark at November 19, 2005 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Definitely Hackett vs. DeWine in Ohio. And Franken v. Coleman for the Minnesota Senate seat will also be quite fun.
Posted by: jurassicpork at November 19, 2005 03:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I haven't seen much at all about 2006 Governors races, except in the context of who's in and who's out for the Senate and House. Anyone know of a good overview of the Governors races?
Posted by: Kalil at November 19, 2005 03:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As far as Kansas goes, the KS GOP has utterly failed to find a top tier candidate to challenge Kathleen Sebelius. Right now there are a couple of GOP underlings vying for the spot... neither of which should pose any problem.
The other big race next year will be the KS Attorney General. Phill Kline, anti choice crusader, is being challenged by a popular county DA who switched parties. Morrison (the challenger) said the KS GOP has moved too far to the right for his tastes and he feels his values are more in line with the Democrats. Republicans wasted no time in claiming that Morrison likes child molesters and murders. Should be a great race, Kline fights extremely dirty.
There is a blog set up for the Kline opposition: http://firephillkline.blogspot.com
Posted by: KansasNate at November 19, 2005 04:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
CA 26.
Russ Warner just declared in the CA 26th. This is David Dreier who is beatable. www.warnerforcongress.com
Also All three House races in CT
Posted by: Democraticavenger at November 19, 2005 06:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As for as the New Jersey race goes, the best bet would be appoint Frank Pallone. Not only is he from a relatively safe district (60.9% to Gore in 2000), but he's a good speaker and as far as I know has no baggage. Plus he's Italian.
Rush Holt would be a good pick too, but then again his seat's not safe.
Posted by: KainIIIC at November 19, 2005 07:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ohio's democratic primary is interesting. Strickland leads and may win out, but Mike Coleman, Mayor of Columbus is the more progressive candidate. Strickland voted for the bankruptcy bill, the latest Bush energy bill, and was named "clean air villain" of the month before. he's a republican in democratic clothing (and their money).
Posted by: Don Mark at November 19, 2005 08:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Tim Walz is heating up!
I know, I can't get over the campaign in Minnesota's 1st!
On Veteran's Day Max Cleland chose where he wanted to be. Max Cleland, the epitome of progressive patriotism. On Veteran's Day, one veteran chose to endorse another.
Max Cleland held an endorsement party for Tim Walz in Minneapolis, MN. From what I have heard it was quite the event! The Walz campaign is starting to kick into high gear. Don't miss the Tim Walz Tsunami in Souther Minnesota!!
Posted by: DFLer22 at November 20, 2005 02:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The most exciting development in Democratic politics here where the buckle tightens on the bible belt is the dramatic party switch of Johnson County Kansas District Attorney Paul Morrison. He changed parties to oppose anti-choice zealot Phill (KK)Kline for the Attorney Generals slot.
Also worth noting: The Missouri 94th elected a Democrat to a seat that has been occupied by a Republican for fifty-eight years!!!
Missouori Dems have another fine candidate poised to take another Democratic seat in another special election in February, in the MO 93rd.
Posted by: Global Citizen at November 20, 2005 06:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I would say the most interesting race is the CA26, because it takes on two of highest Republican Dreier and Schwarzenegger. Dreier was head of Schwarzenegger team when he came to office. Dreier supports Bush whole hearted on the war and Russ Warner son just returned for Iraq and asked him to run. Rumor has it that Wesley Clark is going to endorse Russ Warner and do fundraisers for him.
www.warnerforcongress.com
Posted by: Scott Haas at November 20, 2005 10:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
TX-07, I just got a hot tip from my cousin who is from houston but goes to school with me here in michigan. His middle school debate teacher who won the last three national debate titles is running for congress against 3rd term incumbent john culberson, who won with a 30 pt spread. Check out this guy's website, Jim Henley, he seems very good. Anyway, I wouldn't normally be interested in this if it weren't for my cousin, but he tells me this fellow isn't one to do something and fail. Does anybody know what the deal with the dirstrict is or where I can find out information?
Posted by: Jon Koller at November 20, 2005 06:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Henley's website:
http://www.henleyforcongress.com/
It looks good, but it needs some filling out. I don't know anything about the incumbent.
Posted by: HellofaSandwich at November 20, 2005 08:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
TX-07 also has David Murff running.
Culberson is in the seat held by Bill Archer and George HW Bush. Culberson won 64-33, but his percentage was .2% behind Bush's H2H percentage with Kerry (which was 64-36 Bush)
Also, Duane Burghard is running against Kenny Hulshof in MO-9. Article on the announcement.
A 40-year-old software entrepreneur and former Naval officer has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to challenge incumbent Rep. Kenny Hulshof.
In 1992, Duane Burghard ran as an independent candidate for Missouri's 9th Congressional District, finishing fourth in a four-candidate race. This time, he plans to seek the Democratic nomination and challenge Hulshof, a Republican who has served since 1996.
Burghard filed a declaration of candidacy with the FEC on Thursday and unveiled his campaign Friday at a lunch meeting Boone County Democrats. His platform for the 2006 election includes support for stem cell research, more reliance on alternative energy and spending cuts to help lower the federal deficit.
So yeah, hopefully this will go well. Hulshof won the district from a Democrat in 1996 and he hasn't been challenged since then. MO9 went 59/41 for Bush though.
Posted by: RBH at November 20, 2005 09:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yeah.. everything until the last paragraph was copied from the article.
Posted by: RBH at November 20, 2005 09:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ca-11 - Check out Jerry McNerney's New Blog, energy policy, and grassroots campaign. He's taking on Richard Pombo
http://weblog.jerrymcnerney.org/
Posted by: tronyea at November 21, 2005 06:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Good races? Ohio's...
And I just read through a piece in this month's GQ that contains some great Paul
Hackett coverage. A few real choice quotes from him. The article is more
generally about the 16 Ohio Marines who were killed within a few days of
each other this past August, and in it, Hackett throws down on Bush, the
administration, and even on Democrats and why they're still not credible
when they talk about the war. The man talks tough. Check these:
"Bush is a fraud. He wants to be perceived as a macho guy, but he didn't
have the stones to serve in his generation's war. He didn't have the balls
to do it. Point fucking blank. He didn't have the *balls.* Because he wanted
to drink alcohol and snort cocaine and party. Well, I didn't do that."
"Democrats don't even speak the language of the military, and they don't
even come close to speaking the language of Marines....When you talk about
Marines, don't call us 'soldiers.' It chips away at your credibility."
"Of course there aren't enough Marines [in Iraq]. Everybody knows that.
Look, the war's over. The question is, how do we get everybody home in one
piece?"
Just checked out GQ's website (http://men.style.com/gq/features/landing?id=content_4046) and it looks like they've got the part
of the piece that includes Hackett up online. Worth checking out.
Posted by: offal at November 21, 2005 09:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I know it's difficult to imagine someone as corrupt as Republican crime boss Tom DeLay-- and I'm not asking you to-- but nearly a contender would be DeLay henchman, Ohio's mired-in-scandals Bob Ney (whose name should be heard all over the state for the next year as part of the JUST SAY NOE AND NEY TO REPUBLICAN CORRUPTION campaign). Subpoenaed 2 weeks ago and named (kind of) in one of the most serious indictments involving a member of Congress ever, Ney will be hard-pressed to wage an effective re-election battle even in Ohio's tailor-made for a Republican 18th CD. Unless Ken Blackwell is fixing the electronic voting machines-- remember Stalin's dictim about the vote counters being more important than the mere voters-- Ney is unlikely to survive the contest against popular Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer, a Democrat and war veteran. My guess is that 2007 is more likely to find Bob Ney in a federal prison than in the U.S. Congress.
Posted by: DownWithTyranny at November 21, 2005 09:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You can not forget Mark Losey dropped out of US-OH-15 on Tuesday opening the way for a clean Mary Jo Kilroy run.
At the Ohio House Dean Hernandez came forward to challenge Linda Reidelbach in OH 21. Thank god for Dean.
Posted by: OhioActivist at November 21, 2005 10:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That "Noe and Ney to Republican corruption" slogan is great! I hope someone in the Democratic party picks up on it. Personally, Hackett is my man and I am already making phone calls to my personal circle of friends and acquaintances, telling them a little about the guy. He's going over REALLY well with my heavy metal pals who hate Bush but are worried about Democrats taking their hunting guns. As for Strickland, I don't think he's neaas unprogressive as you think, a few dubious votes aside. Some of my Columbus friends also think Coleman was too quick to side with big-money developers and push small businesses out of Columbus, so neither candidate is perfect. However, both are strong and both have qualities that could poach Republican and especially independent votes. Both are way way better than any of the three announced Republican candidates. (Anyone else in Ohio seen those howler ads that Jim Petro is already blitzing the airwaves with about how much money he can save Ohioans? How, Jim? Investing in rare coins again?) The goal in this one is to beat Blackwell (if he is the Republican nominee) so badly he never thinks of running for office again. I think both Coleman and Strickland could do it. In the Senate race, Hackett is saying things people are hungry to hear. Sherrod Brown is a good progressive but even my urban progressive friends are telling me they think he's too arcane and even a little condescending when he speaks, never mind how he'll come across to farmers in Southern Ohio.
Posted by: Ansatasia P at November 21, 2005 11:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just talked to a Minnesota political insider:
He says that Tim Pawlenty is planning to
call special elections for some specific
state seats. Which he is entitled to do.
The backhanded thing is that
he is calling for the vote on the day
before thanksgiving and
for the middle of the Christmas holiday,
instead of bunching them with
the Nov. first tuesday.
This is all in an effort to supress turnout.
during the 2004 election,
GOP state leader Steve Sviggum
was asked why the GOP lost so
many seats. He attributed it
to high voter turnout.
Do these guys even listen to
themselves anymore?
Posted by: wellstoner at November 21, 2005 11:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Is there any information on a challenger against Peter King on Long Island? In the past he is one of the few Republicans I ever voted for but lately he is nothing but an apologist for Dubya. I think that this year especially in light of the Democrat trending of Nassau and Suffolk counties, the time has come to take him down. This could be another seat that goes Dem. and leaves the Long Island delegation 100% Democratic.
Posted by: Lancearoo at November 21, 2005 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Look out for the 2006 races in Iowa. First Congressional District is most democratic in the state, but has failed to elect democratic congessman in 30 years. Have some strong contenders heading into Democratic Primary in June. We want this seat! The current incumbent is Jim Nussle, just happens to be chair of Appropriations(?) and as such, responsible for the GOP budget. He's chosen to run for Gov in Iowa. We need major margin in First District to elect a Democratic Gov also. I say it's time for the folks in the First District to let Jim Nussle know what we really think of him!
Posted by: Joyce at November 22, 2005 12:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
We have a special election in the CA-48 on Dec. 6th. With Minuteman leader Gilchrist splitting the Republican vote Steve Young should be getting more support.
Watch clips of last night's debate
Posted by: Gary Boatwright at November 22, 2005 12:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment