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Monday, November 28, 2005

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

It's a quiet Thanksgiving weekend, and I hope everyone had a great holiday. But junkies can never stop thinking about politics for very long. So 'fess up: Despite the mounds of turkey and cranberry sauce, what races are on your mind?

Posted at 10:39 AM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Besides the CA gubernatorial race, which looks to be a great pickup opportunity in a very blue state, I have become intrigued with the Ohio statewide elections. With Strickland and Coleman duking it out for governor, and Brown and Hackett doing the same for the Senate, a number of strong tickets could emerge. Meanwhile Democrats need make a strong bench and take the Attorney General and Lt. Governor races.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at November 26, 2005 03:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think we need to focus on CA-48. (atleast for the next two weeks). If we win this, we will gain a seat in the US House.

The campaign is doing a virtual phone bank, where people can volunteer to call voters in CA-48 from anywhere in the world. I think that needs to be focused on on the front of the blog.

This race needs to be treated the same way OH-02 was treated last August, but this time, if enough people get involved, we will win.

Posted by: Kyle Raccio at November 26, 2005 03:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm having trouble finding out whether there is a viable candidate yet to run against Richard Pombo of Stockton.

Posted by: Retired Catholic at November 26, 2005 03:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Jack Abramoff races (DeLay, Ney, Doolite, Burns), the many potentially competitive House races in Pennsylvania, WV 2, VA 2 and the seat that Shays will hopefully soon be kicked out of in Connecticut.

And I remain interested in the on-going race for AG in Virginia.

Posted by: ArmandK at November 26, 2005 04:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We've had a somewhat unexpected development in the CA-11 race to unseat Richard Pombo. A new challenger, Steve Thomas, has apparently decided to enter the field. I have heard very little about Thomas, except what's on his website (still in construction) and the fact that he's a lawyer from Danville.

To sum up, this brings the number of challengers to four or five, depending on how you count. Besides Thomas they are:

1) Jerry McNerney--He took on Pombo in 2004 and is working to take him on again. His biggest strength is the loyal network of supporters he has throughout the district.

2) Steve Filson--He's got the backing of the DCCC and Ellen Tauscher, but seems to lack any sort of grassroots support in the district. He did, however, raise over $100,000 very quickly.

3) Margee Ensign--The dean of the University of the Pacific's School of International Studies. She is well-known in Stockton but not very well-known in other parts of the district. She might have the potential to raise a lot of money quickly, but we won't find out until the next reporting deadline. She has also generated a lot of grassroots buzz. Right now she hasn't declared her candidacy, instead she has only formed an exploratory committee.

4) Scott Chacon was going to run on an open-source campaign model, but I'm not sure if he's still running. He's helped Ensign with her website (which is still not public), which suggests to me that he's thrown his support behind her. I couldn't find information about this on his website, but he was never a credible challenger in any event. He would, however, be a valuable asset to an Ensign Campaign.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at November 26, 2005 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm going with the Montana Senate race this week....a must-win if we have a prayer of taking over the Senate next year. Things began to take shape nicely this week with the Jack Abramoff scandal heating up and Conrad Burns' name featured prominently as part of the Big Four list of GOP villains. One has to expect Burns' unfavorables are about to head northward into a different kind of "Big Sky country". I'm uncommited on Tester vs. Morrison in the primary as both sides make some pretty strong arguments about their candidates' supremacy. Until I discover evidence to the contrary, I think both men are positioned well against Burns...or at least will be as Abramoff-gate heats up.

Posted by: Mark at November 26, 2005 06:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One campaign i'm interested in is the one in NY-25. Dan Maffei seems to have some good credentials and good connections that could make things more interested than expected. Although this could change when the new FEC reports come in.

New York is a state with a huge split that has the potential of opening up farther. It's 20-9 for us. My own opinion is that we have a good candidate in the 29th, and I like the looks of the candidates in the 19th, 20th, and 26th. I'd also hope that somebody good steps up against Vito. If that occurs, I think there's a decent chance of us making the deficit in New York something like 24 to 5. The New York GOP is in pretty bad shape, and we'll have two big vote getters on the top of the ballot.

By now, the September reports are getting less and less relevant. So I'm looking forward to seeing how much money our candidates raised recently. With the big wins in November, that's a pretty good motivating factor to crank up donations.

And David Roth, candidate against Mary Bono, has a site up now.

Posted by: RBH at November 26, 2005 06:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN-01 (Tim Walz, over 100,000 raised!! He Needs the help of the netroots!), MN-06 (Tinklenberg vs. divided GOP), OH-SEN (Hackett for Ohio!!), MN-Gov (No leading challenger yet in crowded DFL field)

Posted by: DFLer22 at November 26, 2005 08:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm focusing on the race in CA's 4th District. The incumbent is John Doolittle. Today there were two articles addressing his ties to Abramoff. One in the Washington Post and the more damaging article in the LA Times.

Excerpts from WaPo and LA Times articles about Doolittle & Abramoff here.

So, Doolittle is publically implicated in the Abramobb scandal...is there a Democratic challenger? Yes, there is.

Charles Brown for Congress

This could shape up to be a real David v. Goliath story for the 06 midterms. Doolittle is ranked about 5th or 6th in power in the Republican congress.

Posted by: cali dem at November 26, 2005 09:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Update: I just got a call from Steve Thomas about his entry into the race to unseat Richard Pombo. I should be able to post something about our conversation by Sunday evening. He's not a lawyer from Danville and I think someone just got confused based on the fact that it's a common name.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at November 26, 2005 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is in the 2008 race category, but i'm starting to lean more towards neutral in the race. Right now, i've been favoring Feingold, but Mark Warner seems like an interesting candidate too. As well, Warner seems like someone who has fundraising prowess, lots of money, and not seem detached. He's a guy who has $180M and he's the first person in his family to have gone to college.

I'd hope that there isn't some huge flaw that would take out Warner.

Posted by: RBH at November 27, 2005 02:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ohio Democratic Party Chair race is an unexpected development.

There are tons of theories floating around, but it's clear that Strickland/Redfern/Leland are trying to make this a proxy war for the May primary.

With Sherrod Brown formally kicking off his Senate race this Friday (w/ Strickland in tow), we'll see if he jumps in, too.

Posted by: Bryan Clark at November 27, 2005 08:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Don't forget the Texas down ballot races. The state Democratic Party is really feeling its oats. 2004 was a really good year for local and county Democratic candidates in Texas. In Dallas County alone in 2004 we elected an openly lesbian Hispanic Sheriff and several judicial candidates. In 2006 the rest of the county offices come up including county judge (really like a county mayor--don't ask), over 30 civil, family, and criminal court district judges, district attorney, county clerk, district clerk, county treasurer, and several constable and justice of the peace offices are open and Democratic candidates are running in all of them. And the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals (covering 24 counties in Central Texas, including the city of Austin) will have four seats up with four strong candidates running a joint campaign for a stronger ticket: Judge Jim Coronado, a jurist of 17 years experience; Diane Henson, who came within 2 percentage points of winning a seat on this court in 2004; Bree Buchanan, a longtime trial attorney and advocate for family violence victims and the poor and Mina Brees, a respected attorney and community leader (and mother of NFL Pro Bowl Quarterback Drew Brees!). The fury over Texas Republicans' refusal adequately and equitably to fund public education has led several top Republican state House members already to announce their retirement plans and several North Texas local school board members are already planning their campaigns. Some are Republicans gearing up for what promises to be brutal primary battles. Keep an eye on Texas below the top of the ballot. We might surprise you.

Posted by: Michael at November 27, 2005 08:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In addition to following the recount drama of the VA-AG (Creigh Deeds) election and the upcoming CA-48 special election, also following MI politics - some interesting stuff for next year.

In the 8th, a new candidate has stepped up to run against entrenched Mike Rogers (Republican). The interesting twist? Jim Marcinkowski is former CIA. Rogers is former FBI. Also - Marcinkowski was a classmate of Valerie Plame. Rogers also is being primaried on his right flank, from Patrick Flynn. Michlib has more details on the district.

In the 11th, there are two candidates to take on Thad McCotter. The first is Tony Trupiano, a fairly well-known progressive radio talk show host. Second is Ray Raczkowski, less well-known management consultant but who has been working the district over the past several months.

In the 9th, there are several candidates taking on Joe Knollenberg, one of whom is netroots regular Rhonda Ross, another is DFA-er John Ashcraft.

In the 7th, "moderate" Joe Schwarz is being primaried on his right by Club For Growth-backed Tim Walberg. Dem candidate to announce soon. If Schwarz gets taken out in the primary, this could become a top race, especially as the only open seat in MI.

Posted by: lpackard at November 27, 2005 09:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I happened to be vacationing in So. Arizona last week when Rep. Jim Kolbe R-AZ(CD-8) announced his retirement after 22 years in the House. This could be a very interesting race for several reasons. He is very popular (re-elected by 60-70% during most of his term), openly gay, does not seem to fit with some of the traditional Republican beliefs (ie: his votes against the bans of partial birth abortion and same-sex marriage). Seems to be an opportunity for a Democratic gain, especially with this ringing endorsement of his primary opponent of last year (and only announced candidate this year):"We can do better than Randy Graf." (Arizona Daily Star, 11/24/05). Could be a fun one to watch.

Posted by: wpdems2006 at November 28, 2005 03:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It looks like the primary race for NJ7 is heating up, with Assemblywoman Linda Stender joining the race. http://www.dumpmike.com/2005/11/auditor_reports.html

Posted by: njdem at November 28, 2005 10:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm looking at the races in NC. CD-8 and CD-11 are both very competive in some rather red areas. CD-8 pits 4 term incumbent Robin Hayes, who took $43,000 of DeLay's dirty money and in return he helped pay for his legal funds and voted in lock-step with his anti-American legislation against Tim Dunn, a Cumberland County native, USMC war vet & still in the reserves, local attorney, upstanding Presbyterian elder, and great family man. The other is CD-11. 8 term incumbent Charles Taylor, who has been dogged by ethics controversies including an extended run-in with the Jackson County tax collector over unpaid taxes and a criminal trial at which longtime political associates testified that Taylor knew about fraudulent loans made by the Asheville-based bank he chairs, is challenged by former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler.

The ethics problems should cost Republicans in NC.

Posted by: cltpie28 at November 28, 2005 11:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jack Carter, NV-Sen candidate, son of the greatest President of the last 30 years, has a website up:
http://www.carterfornevada.com/

It may be bare bones for now, but at least it's a bone! :)

Let's show the DSCC and Harry Reid that we mean business about defeating Republicans--in Nevada too!

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at November 28, 2005 06:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If Pennsylvania voters stay angry and keep vows to vote out their GOP-dominated state legislature (over inordinate raises for themselves, in case you missed that story), then incumbent GOP Congressmen - and Senator Santorum - may face up-ballot fallout that will help Democrat challengers like Lois Murphy (PA-6). In Indiana's 8th congressional district, the usually-ineffective state party has finally fielded a potential winner against GOP incumbent John Hostetler (Brad Ellsworth, whose home base is in the population center of the district, Evansville), and he's raised a lot of money, fast. The gains of 2004 in Colorado need to be protected and Mark Udall's war chest inflated to increase his future options. Finally, I've got a soft spot for the Democrat incumbent in Mo-3, Russ Carnahan. As far as I know his seat is in no special danger, but I'll always be grateful to the political family that retired John Ashcroft from elected office.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at November 29, 2005 05:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment