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Sunday, December 18, 2005

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

So, what's the haps? We're about the enter the slow zone, when junkies like us start fiending a fix. I have a feeling, though, that if you can deal with a few weeks of holiday-time withdrawal, the start of the year should bring us all kinds of new announcements.

Posted at 11:21 AM in Open Threads | Technorati

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NC-11: I think this could be an easy pick up in the end. Unlike national elections, North Carolina state and district elections has been trending democrat. This should be at the top of all lists, right now Shuler is outraising Taylor and has over $215,000 more in the bank as of the last reporting period. We all know the Republicans will be able to pour money into all tight U.S. Rep. races due to their $19 million lead in the RNCC - DNCC stats, so keep an eye here and be prepared to send a small check.

Posted by: JJ at December 18, 2005 12:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not to mention he's a good candidate. Running on solid issues such as: jobs, healthcare and CAFTA/trade (opposition to). Republicans tried to recruit him to run for U.S. Rep a few years ago but he turned them down citing his lifelong democrat beliefs.

Posted by: JJ at December 18, 2005 12:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bush carried NC-11 by 57-43 - but Kerry did better than Gore, who got only 40%. So at least that suggests that things are trending in our direction.

Posted by: DavidNYC at December 18, 2005 12:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ohio is going to be critical in 2006, to no one's surprise. Here in central ohio we have good candidates at in both federal and state level races.

Mary Jo Kilroy is taking on 4th ranking Republican Deborah Pryce.

With all the corruption in Ohio we also have a great opportunity to take back the state house and a number of state wide seats. In the 21st district, Jean Herendeen Ackerman just yesterday went from taking on a 3 term incumbant to running in a closely held open seat. John Kerry won this district by 5% whereas the incumbant Republican barely held on. She announced yesterday she is quitting, so the seat is even more winable than before.

We need to support local candidates as well so we can get the redistricting process back in our hands. Ohio is one such state where this is critical.

Posted by: bringohiohome at December 18, 2005 01:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Army officer questions Davis' bio. I have the story up.

Posted by: Daniel at December 18, 2005 02:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oscars!!!

I'm hoping Brokeback Mountain sweeps with wins for Best pic, Best Actor (Ledger), Best Supporting Actor (Gyllenhaal), Best Supporting Actress (Williams) and Best Director (Lee)!!!!

Go see the movie if you haven't already! It's a great story that gets you to understand the difficulty of living your life in a Red State!!

Posted by: exlogcabin at December 18, 2005 03:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This Geoff Davis thing is pretty fricking amusing. I'm expecting him to have exagerated at least a few big details of his bio. I don't know if he'll go as far as Wes Cooley and claim that his military records were "lost in a fire."

Considering the fact that Davis challenged Ken Lucas on 'exaggerated' records, it's reasonable to expect that Geoff Davis might be exaggerating something.

Other things i've noticed

HR 4477 (sponsored by Rep. Phil English of PA) allows federal judges to carry firearms. Apparently Phil English trusts activist judges enough to let them carry guns.

HR 47 (sponsored by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett) allows for you to shoot people without penalty if it's in self-defense ("Citizens' Self-Defense Act of 2005 - Declares that a person not prohibited under the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act from receiving a firearm shall have the right to obtain firearms for security and to use firearms in defense of: (1) self or family against a reasonably perceived threat of imminent and unlawful infliction of serious bodily injury; (2) self or family in the course of the commission by another person of a violent felony against the person or a member of the person's family; and (3) the person's home in the course of the commission of a felony by another person."). This is the law passed in Florida earlier this year. 71 Republicans and 4 Democrats are cosponsors to this bill. Basically this is the NRA's new pet project.

Posted by: RBH at December 18, 2005 03:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Self-defense is already an affirmative defense to a murder charge. What the Florida law did - and this is the disgusting part - is legalize what is known as the "true man" doctrine. Namely, if you are attacked in your home, you are ordinarily legally obligated to try to get away, if it's possible and if doing so would not be more risky than fighting back.

That's at least the state of the common law now. It used to be that the law did NOT force you to flee - in other words, it allowed you to be a "true man" and stick up for yourself by shooting an invader. The new Florida law is a return to this feudalistic macho thuggery. (And it's worse than that, because it also allows you to fight back even in some public places, too.)

Basically, it's a legalization of macho savagery.

Posted by: DavidNYC at December 18, 2005 05:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, from what I read, HR 47 is pretty close to a "Castle Doctrine" bill.

Posted by: RBH at December 18, 2005 06:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's an extremely locally-focused issue, but there are big things going on in central Minnesota - not one, but two Republicans running in special elections have been caught with their pants around their knees.

Sue Ek, running for House district 15B, is not a legal resident of the district she was nominated to run in, and Dan Ochsner, the self-proclaimed "voice of integrity" radio personality (think Rush Limbaugh minus a hundred pounds or so) was caught doctoring photographs of a Bush-Cheney '04 rally last year with his campaign material in place of BC04 signs....in violation of MN campaign law. The election is scheduled for December 27th, raising questions (granted, among Dems) about Governor Pawlenty's motivations.

A judge has already determined that Ek is ineligible, the state Supreme Court is going to hand down its decision tomorrow (Monday) on the issue. No word on Ochsner's fate. A local extension of the countrywide Culture of Corruption in the Republican Party.

Posted by: JelloAbode at December 18, 2005 08:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Addendum: Ochsner is running for a state Senate seat being vacated by a Republican, meaning that if the DFL candidate wins, it's a pickup - important with ongoing efforts by the right-wingers in the Legislature trying to pound a bigotry-against-gays constitutional amendment through....the DFL currently has a strong majority, but another voice in the chorus is always helpful.

Posted by: JelloAbode at December 18, 2005 08:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the IL-06 Democratic primary. Some of the Cegelis supporters were absolutely vicious towards Duckworth because she has DCCC backing. I found that a bit disgusting, and it eroded my sympathy for Cegelis backers, even though they have fair points. But from what I'm reading on the AP articles on Duckworth, she sounds like she could be pretty good. I'd like SSP to keep an eye on this one.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at December 18, 2005 09:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So the date has been set for the next special election-congressional edition, CA-50. Primary will be April 11th, and runoff June 6th, assuming a runoff is needed. (Busby Press Release) I hope they're already working on an absentee ballot strategy..

Looks like the Creigh Deeds VA-AG recount begins Tuesday, Dec 20th. (from Deeds blog) Maybe some first-hand accounts will show up?

Posted by: lpackard at December 18, 2005 09:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just e-mailed the NoVA Deeds guy. Hopefully I can help out on Tuesday. Believe it or not, I was working for Spitzer when *we* had a recount for the AG's race in 1998. Crazy, huh?

Posted by: DavidNYC at December 18, 2005 11:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

JelloAbode, good choice for races to watch. I've heard about the controversy surrounding Sue Ek's residency but hadn't heard about Ochsner's troubles. By all accounts, the Dems should get both of these races. District 15B is pretty solidly Democrat and Senate District 15 leans that way. I'm pretty sure John Kerry won it last year...of course that was with alot of help from St. Cloud State University students who may not be inclined to show up for a special election. It would sure be bruising for the GOP to lose another state Senate seat. Let's hope for a late Christmas present in these imminently winnable seats.

Posted by: Mark at December 19, 2005 10:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm actually surprised that people are talking about the FL self-defense laws as much as they are, considering the laws in TX. In TX, lethal force in defense of property is not only legal to protect real property, but to protect chattel as well. And you can use lethal force if you think that trying to get it back will cause you harm, or if you don't think you can get it back any other way. That means (theoretically) that if somebody steals you girlfriend's purse, and you think that he is faster than you, you can shoot him in the back as he runs away. It's crazy.

Posted by: mullymt at December 19, 2005 11:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NC-11 is my home district, and it's going to be a helluva race. Shuler is a crossover candidate, having been a Republican/Conservative Independent until only recently. This means the perenial primary challenger Michael Morgan is going to make some political hay.

2004 gave us the Patsy Keever campaign, and she got close (55-45). She was very nice and got very little support from Washington. If Shuler is willing to be meaner than Taylor and the DCCC & DLC hold up their end of the monetary bargain, then we've got a great shot at getting "Chainsaw" Charlie out of the House.

Posted by: Screwy Hoolie at December 19, 2005 02:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NE-01. Until recently, this seat which went to now freshman rep. Jeff Fortenberry over State Senator Matt Connealy in a well contested race last year (54% to 43%, as opposed to Lee Terry's victory over Nancy Thompson in the first district (also considered a well-contested race by Nebraskan standards) which went to the GOP by 61% to 36%) was uncontested, but it now appears that we have a solid candidate in Maxine Moul. Moul is a former Lieutenant Governor under Ben Nelson and former state economic developer who has as big a profile as any Democrat in the area. She hasn't officially announced yet, but expect her to file soon and expect this to be our best shot at gaining a seat in the Cornhusker state next year.

Posted by: TheTaxman at December 19, 2005 03:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb don't look that bad either. But their biggest problems involve running in very red districts. For all I know, they might be part of a strategy which involves attractive candidates who try and get young Republican women to switch sides and vote for them.

Or not. IDK.

Posted by: RBH at December 19, 2005 05:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Let me try something again..

Jim Esch

Posted by: RBH at December 19, 2005 05:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey, Bringohiohome, because of how severely Ohio is gerrymandered right NOW, it's probably not possible to retake the legislature next year. What we need to do first is to retake the governership, the secretary of state and attorney-general offices, which is doable — we have much better candidates all around (yeah, like it's possible to be a WORSE candidate than Ken "Katherine Harris" Blackwell!). That will give the Dems the power to redistrict the state legislature and draw the Republicans out of power (something that prior to the last election I would not have wanted, because I'd prefer fair representative, but with the disgraceful tactics they used to defeat election reform, I'm now out for revenge). Once they're out of power in the lege, we have the power to redraw the U.S. House districts.

Let's make it happen!

And let's elect Paul Hackett to the Senate!

Posted by: Ansatasia P at December 19, 2005 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm extremely excited about Scott Kleeb. He's just about the best candidate NE-03 Democrats will ever be able to recruit. But this district is just not very competitive at all for the Dems, so his chances aren't very good. Hopefully he'll have a very strong showing, use that to launch himself into county or state politics and gradually build a profile that will make him an attractive gubernatorial or senatorial candidate in the future.

Jim Esch seems cool enough -his main strength is his extremely eye-catching campaign graphic- but his campaign really needs a very big boost if he's ever going to get the name rec he needs to be competitive. Practically no one I've talked to has any idea who he is. I'm hoping that Fahey (the very popular Democratic mayor of Omaha) will campaign for him, but it's not likely considering how he tried to distance himself from the Democratic candidates for city council earlier this year.

Posted by: TheTaxman at December 19, 2005 06:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm a very straight 20 year-old male, but even I'll admit that Scott Kleeb is hot.

Swoon. :P

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at December 19, 2005 06:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I will be taking my annual trip to NH - no junkie withdrawl for me. I expect nothing but non-stop NH Primary 2008 Gossip.

It will be fun - what I hear thus far is Clinton has serious problems among Dem activists, and everybody wants to know more about Warner.

Posted by: fladem at December 21, 2005 03:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

IL-14: Hastert v Zamora/Laesch

There are so many scandals brewing around him. Lie down with dogs... as they say.

Posted by: raisin at December 22, 2005 09:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment