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Saturday, December 24, 2005

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

What races are on your mind this Christmas weekend?

Posted at 11:59 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Only the campaign of love, David. Only the campaign of love.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at December 24, 2005 12:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I suppose it won't surprise anyone that I'm thinking about CA-11 and the race to unseat Richard Pombo.

Since I last posted here, Margee Ensign has dropped out of the race. She was the only woman running and the only Democratic candidate from San Joaquin County, which is where 60% of the voters live. This leaves three Dems, two of whom are credible contenders for the primary, in the race.

I'm really interested to see what the fourth quarter FEC numbers of the two main candidates look like. Steve Filson has been going around telling Democrats that they might not like him but they should vote for him because he can raise more money than Jerry McNerney, the grassroots candidate. McNerney's fundraising has been rather lackluster, but he might be picking up steam in that regard. I also think that Margee Ensign's entry into the race might have dimmed Steve Filson's star a bit, and her exist (it was a very brief candidacy) might not have in and of itself restore his lost luster.

It's hard to say at this point, but I suspect that McNerney will end up having raised around $100,000 this cycle (with significantly less cash on hand), and Filson will end the quarter having raised at least $200,000 this cycle. McNerney clearly has more grassroots support, so I'm not exactly sure at what point Filson's fundraising advantage means more than McNerney's grassroots support (or vice versa). Any guidance on how to understand/evaluate fundraising numbers would be greatly appreciated. I'll check back here, but you can also e-mail me at emetbloom(at)hotmail(dot)com.

Lastly, anyone who has some extra time to read up about the race is encouraged to peruse my brand-spanking-new list of posts by categories. It's not great, but it's better than nothing.

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at December 24, 2005 01:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here in Minnesota, there's a special election on Tuesday for Senate District 15 which includes most of the city of St. Cloud in central Minnesota. This district is normally pretty evenly divided, but Governor Pawlenty made the calculated decision to schedule the special election for December 27 to make sure the college kids who came out so strong for John Kerry last year would be at home for Christmas break. That probably means it's odds-on for the Republican candidate, but I would not rule out the same kind of upset we saw when DFLer Terri Bonoff won earlier this month in the similarly center-right Plymouth-based Senate District 43.

There's also a special election for a House race in District 15B, which is the Democratic east side of St. Cloud. The Republicans tried to sneak in a candidate who didn't live in the district, got caught, and now were forced to remove their candidate from the ballot. Barring a massive write-in effort for the Republican, it looks like Larry Haws will hold this House seat for the DFL.

Posted by: Mark at December 24, 2005 12:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think that to win the senate we have to win Tennessee. Polls show a close race, and I really believe Ford can pull it out.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at December 24, 2005 03:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This doesn't concern a 2006 election, but I did some more messing around with the Oklahoma results from 2004, and found that Carson beat Coburn by a 52-43 margin in Little Dixie*

(* - The following counties are considered Little Dixie: Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes, Johnston, Latimer, Le Flore, Marshall, McCurtain, Pittsburg, Pontotoc, and Pushmataha Counties. Only around 8% of the total votes though)

The Oklahoma registration stats (as of January 2005) probably show that people don't pay attention to their party registration. 51% of Oklahomans are registered Democrats and 38% are registered Republicans.

Little Dixie's registration split is 78% Democratic and 15% Republican. It also went 61/39 for Bush, in a year where Bush won Oklahoma 66/34.

11 counties (mainly in Little Dixie) have 4 of every 5 registered as a Democrat. Carson won 10 of those counties (he lost one county by 179 votes that has 84% of their voters as registered Democrats)

I'll conclude "interesting things about Oklahoma voting habits" by going though the splits in the state.

First, Bush/Kerry-related voter-reg. splits:

Counties won by Bush with 50% to 59% (251K reg. voters): 71/20 Democratic
Counties won by Bush with 60% to 69% (1,450K): 49/40 Democratic
Counties won by Bush with 70% to 79% (337K): 46/44 Democratic
Counties won by Bush with 80% to 89% (68K): 47/44 Republican

And the Carson/Coburn voter-reg stats

Counties won by Carson (474K reg. voters): 72/20 Democratic
Counties won by Coburn (1,675K): 45/43 Democratic

As for party reg, here's the map (good guys in blue, bad guys in red, states with independent as #1 in green, states with no party registration in yellow) right here. Your mileage may vary.

Posted by: RBH at December 24, 2005 08:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH, interesting data on OK. It surprises me that there are so many registered Democrats in the state. Even cartoonishly hawkish country singer and Bush apologist Toby Keith is an Oklahoman who claims he's a registered Democrat.

The "Little Dixie" counties you refer to are as Democrat as they are largely due to the high Native American population. My guess is the Native American pop. is 25% or better in most or all of those counties. Also interesting is that Democratic Presidential candidate Michael Dukakis won the vast majority of these counties back in 1988...hard to believe considering how thorough fellow Massachusettsan John Kerry got smashed there 16 years later.

As for Brad Carson, I knew he had problems when Tom Coburn won the primary. Coburn represented the heavily Democratic OK-02 in Congress before Carson did, thus cutting into what would otherwise have been huge numbers for Carson in the Little Dixie region. Of OK's 10 most populous counties, only Muskogee County is reliably Democrat....and it's also Tom Coburn's hometown. When I saw that, I knew Carson had his work cut out for him. He ended up winning Muskogee County by only three points, the same margin Al Gore won it by in his landslide defeat in 2000. To this day, I wonder if Carson would have been able to beat the other GOP contender for that seat who got beat in the primary....Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys.

Posted by: Mark at December 24, 2005 09:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Considering that Humphreys couldn't even get over 30% in the primary, yeah, I would guess that Carson/Humphreys would be better for the "getting Eastern Oklahomans out to vote for Carson" scenario. Although Coburn never represented the main parts of Little Dixie (which was district 3, represented by Carl Albert, Wes Watkins as a Democrat, Bill Brewster, and Wes Watkins as a Republican).

Wikipedia says the Native American percentage is 17%, and I don't see any counties in that area with percentages over 20%. The main reason why so many of the people down there are still registered Democrats is because they're mainly of Southern descent (having moved to that part of Oklahoma after the Civil War), and they've never thought about changing their registration.

On checking Kentucky's voter registration numbers, not only do they have multiple counties with over 90% of people registered as Democrats, but they have others with over 80% registered as Republicans. Streets & Trips says you can take a 36.9 mile path from Hyden (Leslie County, 87% registered Republican) to Hindman (Knott County, 95% registered Democrat). Leslie gave 74% to Bush, Knott gave 63% to Kerry. But both counties are "dry".

Posted by: RBH at December 25, 2005 12:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Although, when it comes to Oklahoma and Kentucky, one benefit of keeping your registration as a Democrat would be the ability to vote in primaries for Sheriff and other county offices.

The list of Oklahoma office holders

You can see a lot of counties where every county office holder is a Democrat.

Posted by: RBH at December 25, 2005 01:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am watching the special election for the Missouri house of Representatives in the 93rd. The 94th, next door, just elected the first Democrat in 58 years to the statehouse in another special election in November. The two Republicans who won their races are definite RINO's. They won by running away from Matt "The Boy Blunder" Blunt (Son of Roy, R-K Street) as far asthey could get as fast as they could go.

The deeper Ronnie Earle digs into Master Blunt's 2000 campaign finances for his Secretary of State run, the more nervous the state capital seems to become. The silence from Jefferson City the past week has been deafening...punctuated only occasionally by the sound of a shredder.

Posted by: Global Citizen at December 25, 2005 09:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hopefully Blunt becomes the first Missouri governor to be indicted by an official of Texas.

Posted by: RBH at December 25, 2005 10:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am most interested in the 2006 Missouri senate race. Most Claire supporters are still pissed at the DNC for pulling out of Missouri with 3 weeks to go in a close race for governor. She was up 1% then down 1% all the way to the end. I know Kerry was not going to win in 2004, but when the national staffers pulled out of this state the loser perception spread and I believe this greatly contributed to our close losses in the Goverors race as well as Lt. Gov's race.

Posted by: Kyle SF at December 26, 2005 12:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, I'm a Missourian, and I voted for all the Democrats (I also did phonebanking too*). I was unhappy with the DNC pulling funding. Blunt and Kinder's wins can be partly atributed to that pullout. Cook came closer to winning, and I hope she runs for something in the future.

Granted, I hope that 2006 will have a state party which is much stronger.

I really should have tried to get more "Nancy Farmer campaign" stories from this one guy who apparently dates this one girl who had some involvement in that campaign. Nancy seemed like a really nice person and I voted for her. But her campaign really didn't get much traction.

(* - Personal note: I'm pretty sure I wasn't that good at phonebanking. It's sorta like political telemarketing, but i'm sure there's a lot of methods to do it right.)

I'm going to hope that Claire, Roger Wilson, the DSCC, and Dean can all coexist. I know they've done enough for Talent to already link McCaskill to Soros, Kerry, and Schumer in an e-mail.

Posted by: RBH at December 26, 2005 12:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Washington Post this morning indicated that Trent Lott may announce this week that he's not running, and that Republicans in Mississippi think that the Republican Pickering would lose to the Democrat Moore. The state may switch from Solid GOP to leading Dem by week's end.

Posted by: feynman at December 26, 2005 09:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Did the Mississippi Republicans comment on Wicker v. Moore too?

At the very least, if Lott retires, then we'll get an open Senate seat and an open House seat. Although the House seat (Wicker's, or Pickering's, would be hard to capture)

Since the Mississippi State Senate doesn't stand for election until 2007, Senators interested in moving up could run for the House (granted, we might lose their State Senate seats)

Democratic State Senators in the first District (if Wicker runs)

Nickey Browning, 54, Pontonoc
Hob Bryan, 53, Amory
Gray Tollison, 41, Oxford

Although, I can't really find many youngish Democrats in areas around the third district. But the website for the Mississippi House of Representatives does list the Congressional district which each member's district is located in, which is helpful.

House members of random interest to me

1st CD
Jamie Franka, 33, Mooreville
Jack Gadd, 50, Hickory Flat

3rd CD
Johnny Stringer, 55, Montrose
Bobby Moak, 47, Bogue Chitto
Scott Bounds, 43, Philadelphia

Of course, this being Mississippi and all, i'm sure there's some sort of big negative (either to us all, or to various purists)

Wicker got his seat in a good year for the GOP, against a pretty lackluster opponent, and he got to replace Jamie Whitten (who served almost 54 years in the House)

Pickering got his seat in 1996, and beat a pretty young guy easily to replace Sonny Montgomery.

The first is split 71/26 between the races. The third is split 64/33 between the races. But the first gave Bush 62% and the third gave Bush 65%.

In other words, the third has a higher minority population, but the voting patterns seem more polarized than in the first.

Then again, Bush won Mississippi with 85% of the White vote and 10% of the African-American vote. That's how things are down there.

Posted by: RBH at December 26, 2005 12:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What chances does a Democrat (not the independent Weicker) have of beating Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut primary next year?

Posted by: Susan S at December 26, 2005 04:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH, how much of the white vote went Bush in the other Southern states?

Posted by: Mark at December 26, 2005 05:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Susan: In my opinion, none.

Posted by: DavidNYC at December 26, 2005 05:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH, how much of the white vote went Bush in the other Southern states?

I'm not sure on the total for the entire South, but it was over 75% in places like Georgia and Louisiana too.

Posted by: RBH at December 26, 2005 08:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bush/Gore White Vote breakdown in Southern States in 2004:

Alabama: 80%(R)-19%(D)
Arkansas: 63%(R)-36%(D)
Florida: 57%(R)-42%(D)
Georgia: 76%(R)-23%(D)
Kentucky: 64%(R)-35%(D)
Louisiana: 75%(R)-24%(D)
Mississippi: 85%(R)-14%(D)
Missouri (I don't count it as part of the South, but some people do): 57%(R)-42%(D)
North Carolina: 73%(R)-27%(D)
Oklahoma: 71%(R)-29%(D)
South Carolina: 78%(R)-22%(D)
Tennessee: 65%(R)-34%(D)
Texas: 74%(R)-25%(D)
Virginia: 68%(R)-32%(D)

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at December 27, 2005 02:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Meanwhile in other news. Another Democrat enters the CA-50 race, one which supports "finishing the border fence" and declares herself to be "left of the neo-conservatives, right of the liberals". Presumably dKos diaries won't be devoted to how Rahm is a bad man for ignoring Chris Young.

The Republican side in the 50th includes one former Congressman, one former Assemblyman, one State Senator, one former San Diego Charger, and two millionaires who have declared they will spend millions to win.

Posted by: RBH at December 27, 2005 04:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Meanwhile, Indiana Progressives seek candidate in the 2nd District (this being the district where a Donnelly/Chocola rematch is expected)

Posted by: RBH at December 27, 2005 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Michigan's 8th District:

Jim Marcinkowski is challenging Mike Rogers[R]. Should give Rogers quite the run for his money.

Posted by: desi at December 27, 2005 07:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Also, when it comes to John Thrasher, am I guility of a pun-related offense by thinking of the slogan "changing the tune in Washington"? (at the risk of explaining too much, Thrasher is a conductor for a band too)

Posted by: RBH at December 27, 2005 09:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

slight change in my pun-filled slogan "Change the tune in Washington"

Posted by: RBH at December 27, 2005 09:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment