Tuesday, January 31, 2006
State of the Union Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCIf you're watching and want to jaw about the SOTU, here's your thread. And here's the way to make it tolerable.
Posted at 09:00 PM in Open Threads | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Lege: Dems Pick Up Another Seat in Special Election
Posted by DavidNYCDemocrat Mark Herring won a special election to VA's state Senate tonight. What makes this especially welcome news is that the seat was formerly held by a Republican, so this counts as a pickup for us. I believe the margin in that chamber is now 23-17. Virginia's on a roll - excellent work, guys!
Posted at 08:50 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Special Elections, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
4Q Fundraising Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYC(Bumped. Thanks to everyone who's been posting numbers in comments. Please feel free to keep doing so.)
The fundraising totals are already starting to flow fast and furious. These days, it seems that at least some campaigns like to release their numbers early via e-mail. I got one from Sherrod Brown saying he pulled in $497K, with cash-on-hand at $2.37M. What numbers have you seen so far?
Posted at 08:11 PM in Fundraising | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
MT-Sen: Morrison Swamps Tester, Burns Way Ahead of Both
Posted by DavidNYCBad news, Tester fans:
Tester 4Q Fundraising: $89K
Morrison 4Q Fundraising: $407K
Burns 4Q Fundraising: $814KTester Cash-on-Hand: $167K
Morrison Cash-on-Hand: $753K
Burns Cash-on-Hand: $3.4M
Morrison raised almost 5x as much as Tester, and Burns almost 10x as much. Tester really has got to turn things around, and soon. You can help him by going here.
P.S. Markos rounds up fundraising numbers from a whole bunch of top-tier Senate races. The numbers don't look great for us.
Posted at 03:19 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Montana | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Vilsack Says Dems Will Lose Unless They Embrace Views of Minority of Americans
Posted by DavidNYCGov. Tom Vilsack said Monday that Democrats risk political backlash if they object to the Bush administration's wiretapping but cannot show that Americans' civil liberties are at risk....
"And I think Democrats are falling into a very, very large political trap," he said. "Democrats are not going to win elections until they can reassure people they are going to keep them safe."
That's 56% who favor getting warrants vs. 42% who don't.
Posted at 01:31 PM in 2008 President - Democrats | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Lamont is Looking for CTers
Posted by DavidNYCNed Lamont says he'll run against Joe Lieberman if and when he gets 1,000 CT residents to sign up on his website. According to Markos, he's gotten 300 so far, plus another thou from outside the state. Considering that Lamont's website has been pimped on the front page of DailyKos multiple times since Saturday, those numbers don't strike me as terribly strong. I mean, the guy's not asking for contributions - just name, e-mail and ZIP. Then again, CT is a small state, and Lamont is (apparently) limiting himself purely to people who are in the thick of online activism. Nonetheless, I expect he'll hit his millennium mark soon enough.
Posted at 12:57 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NY-Gov: Golisano is Out
Posted by DavidNYCSo bazillionaire businessman Tom Golisano has decided not to run for governor. While Golisano was never a threat to Spitzer, his personal fortune would have allowed him to cause all kinds of mischief. With a gang of true nobodies now vying for the GOP nomination, Spitzer will be able to husband his resources and spend more time campaigning for down-ticket candidates.
Posted at 12:46 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Complete 50-State Filing Deadline List
Posted by DavidNYCCourtesy of The Hotline, every state's filing deadline, primary date, and, where applicable, runoff date is included in a table below the fold. Four states have February deadlines:
New Mexico - 2/14Ohio - 2/16
Indiana - 2/17
North Carolina - 2/28
The following month is much busier - twelve states have deadlines in March. Keep track of House race filings here and here. Again, the complete list is below the fold.
| State | Deadline | Primary | Runoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 12/19/05 | 3/21 | |
| TX | 1/2 | 3/7 | 4/11 |
| WV | 1/28 | 5/9 | |
| KY | 1/31 | 5/16 | |
| NM | 2/14 | 6/6 | |
| OH | 2/16 | 5/2 | |
| IN | 2/17 | 5/2 | |
| NC | 2/28 | 5/2 | 5/30 |
| MS | 3/1 | 6/6 | 6/27 |
| NE | 3/1 | 5/9 | |
| OR | 3/7 | 5/16 | |
| PA | 3/7 | 5/16 | |
| CA | 3/10 | 6/6 | |
| ME | 3/15 | 6/13 | |
| ID | 3/17 | 5/23 | |
| IA | 3/17 | 6/6 | |
| UT | 3/17 | 6/27 | |
| MT | 3/23 | 6/6 | |
| MO | 3/28 | 8/8 | |
| SC | 3/30 | 6/13 | 6/27 |
| AR | 4/4 | 5/23 | 6/13 |
| SD | 4/6 | 6/6 | 6/14 |
| TN | 4/6 | 8/3 | |
| AL | 4/8 | 6/6 | 6/27 |
| NJ | 4/10 | 6/6 | |
| ND | 4/17 | 6/13 | |
| VA | 4/19 | 6/13 | |
| GA | 4/28 | 7/18 | 8/8 |
| FL | 5/12 | 9/5 | |
| MI | 5/16 | 8/8 | |
| NV | 5/19 | 8/15 | |
| CT | 5/23 | 8/8 | |
| CO | 5/25 | 8/8 | |
| AK | 6/1 | 8/22 | |
| WY | 6/2 | 8/22 | |
| MA | 6/6 | 9/19 | |
| OK | 6/7 | 7/7 | 8/24 |
| KS | 6/12 | 8/1 | |
| AZ | 6/14 | 9/12 | |
| NH | 6/16 | 9/12 | |
| RI | 6/28 | 9/12 | |
| MD | 7/3 | 9/12 | |
| DC | 7/5 | 9/12 | |
| WI | 7/11 | 9/12 | |
| NY | 7/13 | 9/12 | |
| VT | 7/17 | 9/12 | |
| MN | 7/18 | 9/12 | |
| HI | 7/25 | 9/23 | |
| DE | 7/28 | 9/9 | |
| WA | 7/28 | 9/12 | |
| LA | 8/11 | 11/7 | 12/9 |
Posted at 11:52 AM in 2006 Elections | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Sen: Is James Webb Out?
Posted by DavidNYCLowell at Raising Kaine is reporting that James Webb won't take on George Allen in VA-Sen this year. I have no reason to doubt the folks at RK, but I haven't been able to find an official confirmation from Webb. If true, though, then this is bad news indeed. James Webb is an exciting guy to me - I just can't say the same about Harris Miller, who is a Herb Kohl at best.
Posted at 11:19 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
MN-06: Wetterling Won't Run for LG, But Might Run for Congress
Posted by DavidNYCThe St. Paul Pioneer Press is reporting that Patty Wetterling has declined to run for Lt. Gov. with AG Mike Hatch. However, she's apparently still considering a run in MN-06 (the seat she tried for in 2004). Current 6th CD Dem candidate El Tinklenberg is claiming that Wetterling said she wouldn't run against him - but was this a "looked him in the eye" or a "go for it"?
Soon enough, we'll see both candidates' 4Q fundraising figures. Remember, through the end of the quarter, Wetterling was running for Senate. If Tinklenberg's House numbers are comparable, then perhaps Wetterling should consider staying out of the race.
Posted at 10:24 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Minnesota | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, January 30, 2006
KY-04: Ken Lucas Is In!
Posted by DavidNYCFantastic news, friends: Former Rep. Ken Lucas is indeed running to reclaim his old seat, Kentucky's 4th Congressional District! This move automatically makes KY-04 a top-tier race this year. Also, kudos to Mark Nickolas and his grassroots Draft Ken Lucas effort. Keep your eyes on this district - it's gonna be a good one!
P.S. This also means we have candidates running in all six KY districts. In the four states whose deadlines have passed or are about to pass - IL, TX, WV & KY - there are Dems running in 59 of 60 spots. So far, that's excellent.
Posted at 03:59 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kentucky | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, January 29, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCLet's hear it.
Posted at 11:59 PM in Open Threads | Comments (30) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
WV, KY & FEC: Some Filing Deadline Notes
Posted by DavidNYC• WV's deadline was yesterday - 1/28. Two additional Dems have filed to run against Shelley Moore Capito. One, Mark Hunt, gave the Raelian cult half a million bucks to try to clone his son. The other, Richie Robb, just switched from the GOP - in fact, when you Google him, the first result is a campaign site which calls him a "Republican with Results." I'm sticking with Mike Callaghan on this one.
• WV's two Democratic reps, Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall will have GOP challengers, but I'm not sure how serious either effort is. Sen. Robert Byrd also has a challenger, wealthy businessman John Raese, whom some people seem to think presents a credible foe. However, Raese is legally a resident of Florida and has also lost two statewide races before.
• Kentucky's filing deadline is Tuesday the 31st. The KY Secretary of State has a very good website, including a page which lists all candidates who have filed in a nice, clean, readable format. Mark Nickolas is hinting that Ken Lucas will file on Monday - if he doesn't, we may not have a candidate in KY-04. On the flip-side, no Republicans have filed to run against the popular Ben Chandler in KY-06. If Chandler is unopposed, that would be quite a statement - Bush won the district by 17 points. I personally think Chandler should consider taking on Fletcher again in 2007.
• The FEC filing deadline is also the 31st. The fourth quarter in an off-year is typically slow (winter holidays and all), but campaigns which did well will probably release some preliminary figures tomorrow or Tuesday (ie, before they are obligated to do so). In any event, the FEC will be cranking out the official figures before long.
Posted at 04:29 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Kentucky, West Virginia | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, January 27, 2006
NY-Sen: Cox Out; Spencer, Seemingly, In
Posted by DavidNYCNo one, it seems, wants to take on Hillary Clinton. With Jeanine Pirro vanishing into the ether, the NY GOP turned (once again) to Ed Cox, most famous for being the son-in-law of Dick Nixon. Cox, who actually had either the sense or grace to bow out when Pataki endorsed Pirro, decided it wasn't worth bowing back in. So they're down to a guy named John Spencer, who I always thought was a recently-deceased star on West Wing. Turns out, he's also a former mayor of Yonkers.
Not that you needed any confirmation, but this race is going to be seriously dull. A few people have noted that HRC is fundraising gold for the right - her name alone in direct-mail solicitations increases the return rate dramatically (or so it's said). Without even a semi-serious challenger for Clinton, she'll be able to fly under the radar for much of the campaign season, so it'll be that much more difficult to milk her name for some good old fashioned hate-bucks. Of course, she's still a celebrity and will get more coverage than most candidates, but this campaign probably won't produce many sparks of the sort which can light a fire under the anti-Hillary base.
Of course, they'll probably just make shit up anyhow.
Posted at 01:45 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 26, 2006
NY-Gov: Spitzer Supports Gay Marriage, Suozzi Doesn't
Posted by DavidNYCHe also opposed gay marriage but supported a civil unions law for same-sex partners.
He countered by saying that, as governor, he would introduce a bill to legalize same-sex marriage.
Posted at 02:38 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NJ-Sen: Menendez Slips Slightly in New Q-Poll
Posted by DavidNYCFrom Quinnipiac (registered voters, Dec. in parens):
Menendez: 38 (44)
Kean: 36 (38)
Undecided: 22 (16)
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Both men have almost identical favorability ratings, with the most salient fact that 64% of respondents say they don't know enough about either guy to express an opinion. My thinking is that as name rec grows for both men, a natural advantage has to accure to Menendez. George Bush just hit his lowest approval rating ever in NJ (36-59). It would be an amazing feat if Kean could avoid being tainted by the GOP's overall poor rep in the state.
Posted at 10:17 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, New Jersey | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
CA-Gov: Arnold's Opponents Lose a Little Ground
Posted by DavidNYCA new poll from Rasmussen (likely voters, mid-Dec. in parens):
Angelides: 39 (44)
Schwarzenegger: 41 (40)Westly: 40 (46)
Schwarzenegger: 39 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Arnold's favorability margin improved somewhat, though his head-to-head numbers didn't. What's strange about this poll is that both Westly's & Angelides' overall name reco seems to have dropped. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they were unsure about Angelides, while only 26% said so in December. Westly, meanwhile, went from 30% all the way to 49%. This probably explains why their top-line numbers also declined.
I don't have access to the crosstabs because I'm not a Rasmussen subscriber, but double-digit shifts to "unsure" (almost 20% in Westly's case) seem really wacky. This may just mean there was a skewed sample in either this poll or the previous one. Since Rasmussen has pledged to poll every major race every month, we should be able to tell which one was accurate come February.
Posted at 09:20 PM in 2006 Elections - State, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
House Dems: Pay Your DCCC Dues!
Posted by DavidNYCThis, my friends, is unacceptable:
Democratic House Members anted up more than $11 million in dues to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2005, but there remain 21 Caucus members who have not contributed a dime in the 2006 cycle and 13 others who have given less than 10 percent of what the DCCC is seeking from them.While the numbers suggest that Democrats are making progress toward compliance, they are still $20 million short of the $32.1 million they would reap if every member meets his or her obligations.
...
In addition to Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), the DCCC’s chairman, just four of the 201 Democrats have paid in full: Reps. Nita Lowey (N.Y.), Steve Israel (N.Y.), Bill Delahunt (Mass.) and Tom Udall (N.M.). (Emphasis added.)
This is, as I say, just a totally unacceptable state of affairs. We need the DCCC to be flush if we want to compete - and yet House Dems have only contributed one-third of the total they are obligated to pay in. It's rarely my style to go after fellow Dems, but come ON, people! We need to be team players on this one. So I'm going to call out the deadbeats, as listed by Roll Call:
| Rep. | District | $ Given | $ Due | Committee | Warchest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Jackson, Jr. | IL-02 | $0 | $150K | Appropriations | $1.1M |
| José Serrano | NY-16 | $0 | $150K | Appropriations | $46K |
| Sherrod Brown | OH-13 | $64K | $250K | Commerce | $2M |
| Jim Davis | FL-11 | $0 | $150K | Commerce | $27K |
| Ted Strickland | OH-06 | $0 | $150K | Commerce | $498K |
| Edolphus Towns | NY-10 | $0 | $150K | Commerce | $221K |
| Julia Carson | IN-07 | $0 | $150K | Financial Services | $271K |
| Emanuel Cleaver | MO-05 | <10% | $150K | Financial Services | $194K |
| Harold Ford | TN-09 | $0 | $150K | Financial Services | $1.7M |
| Darlene Hooley | OR-05 | $0 | $150K | Financial Services | $548K |
| Gregory Meeks | NY-06 | <10% | $150K | Financial Services | $146K |
| Brad Miller | NC-13 | $0 | $150K | Financial Services | $210K |
| Ben Cardin | MD-03 | $0 | $150K | Ways & Means | $299K* |
| Pete Stark | CA-13 | $1K | $150K | Ways & Means | $400K |
| Robert Brady | PA-01 | $0 | $100K | $841K | |
| Tim Holden | PA-17 | $0 | $100K | $329K | |
| Jim Marshall | GA-03 | $0 | $100K | $626K | |
| Ike Skelton | MO-04 | $5K | $100K | $600K |
Now, a few things: First, I'm sure these aren't the only Dem reps who are short on their dues - they're simply the ones listed by Roll Call. If you come across any reputable sources which indicate that there are other Dems who are in arrears, let me know, and I'll add them to this list. Also I'm not saying that any of these guys are bad people - they just need to fulfill their obligations.
So, to that end, if you live in any of these districts, call & e-mail your reps and politely ask them to pay what they owe the DCCC. Take a look at those warchests - for many, this is couch change, so there are no excuses. That a well-funded D-Trip benefits us all is so obvious as to be not even worth mentioning.
(A couple of notes about the table: 1) Members on five select committees - the four listed here plus the Rules Committee - are required to pay extra. 2) Warchests reflect cash-on-hand as of 9/30/05, except for Jesse Jackson, Jr., whose cash-on-hand figures are current as of 12/31/05. 3) Ben Cardin's total cash-on-hand is unclear, as his House and Senate campaign committees reflect different totals. His Senate committee shows a cash-on-hand of $1.5M. 4) The "amount due" that I list for each member is based either on specific Roll Call figures or on general DCCC dues rules. Where I have employed the latter, some of my numbers may be off, probably to the low side.)
P.S. Dennis Kucinich was also mentioned by Roll Call, but from the article's language, it wasn't clear how much he had already given, so I did not include him in the table.
Posted at 10:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Activism, Democrats | Comments (10) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
AZ-Sen: Kyl Swamping Pederson
Posted by DavidNYCMan, I am not liking this new BRC/Rocky Mountain poll (just plain "voters," Oct. in parens):
Pederson: 26 (30)
Kyl: 55 (54)
Undecided: 19 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Pederson is supposed to be a great candidate: He's got money, and as chair of the AZ Dems, he's got all the connections you could imagine. Moreover, Kyl is the ultimate super duper conservative wingnut. According to CQ (PDF), Kyl voted with the GOP majority 98% of the time in 2005 - the second-highest rate in the GOP caucus. I've got to believe he's out-of-step with much of Arizona.
And yet Pederson can't seem to gain any traction, at least (twice now) according to this poll. (The Zogby results are clearly from bizarro-world.) If we can't link (and thus hurt) Kyl with the failed Bush administration, whom can we do it with? I'm certainly not writing Pederson off - it's still quite early. We have a lot of good pickup opportunities, and I had hoped that AZ would be one of them. Anything's possible, but for now, I remain pessimistic.
Posted at 10:00 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Arizona | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-Gov: Montgomey (R) Dropping out of Race
Posted by DavidNYCRepublican State Auditor Betty Montgomery is dropping out of the race for Ohio governor. That leaves Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and Attorney General Jim Petro to compete for the nomination. (In a recent Rasmussen poll, she performed the worst against the only Dem candidate, Rep. Ted Strickland.) Montgomery is instead going to seek the AG nomination (shades of Pirro), an office she once held but was term-limited out of in 2002.
(Thanks to Earl in Ohio.)
Posted at 12:12 AM in 2006 Elections - State, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, January 23, 2006
NV-03: Reid Staffer Mulling Challenge to Porter
Posted by DavidNYCNevada's third CD is one of those super-tantalizing districts. It's virtually 50-50 on the presidential level. Yet somehow, we haven't been able to find a serious challenger to incumbent Rep. Jon Porter. Via Hugh at the Gleaner, we're told that may soon be changing:
Democratic Sen. Harry Reid's press secretary Tessa Hafen resigned Monday to consider challenging Nevada Rep. Jon Porter for Congress, two Democratic sources said.
Hugh has the full run-down on Hafen's strengths and weaknesses here. The basic 411: Her family name is well-known in the district (her dad is a local politician); she's very young (only 29); and obviously, she's tied in with Harry Reid, which can cut both ways. In any event, it's heartening to see a real candidate emerge here - as I've often said, there's no way we can take back the House unless we challenge the close districts.
Posted at 06:35 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Nevada | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-11: Former Rep. McCloskey in Against Pombo
Posted by DavidNYCAs we had previously discussed, former Rep. Pete McCloskey has decided to tap himself for a primary challenge against corrupt Republican radical Rep. Dick Pombo.
However, I'm appalled at McCloskey's involvement with the Institute for Historical Review, a notorious cabal of Holocaust deniers (something I did not know about when I first wrote about him). In a 2000 speech, he told the group, "I don't know whether you are right or wrong about the Holocaust...." Needless to say, this kind of talk disgusts me in the extreme. McCloskey's remark a few days ago that he "will go and speak to any group" doesn't signal very good judgment or contrition, either.
If McCloskey helps unseat Pombo, fine. But my father is a Holocaust survivor. My grandfather (after whom I am named) was murdered by the Germans. So you'll understand that when it comes to such matters, I'm pretty intolerant of guys like McCloskey. I don't treat with such people, and I'm not going to be making common cause with this guy.
Posted at 05:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NY-Gov: Spitzer Taps Patterson; Nassau Lege in Disarray; Golisano Filing
Posted by DavidNYCFirst, Eliot Spitzer has asked state Senate Minority Leader David Patterson to be his "running-mate." I put that phrase in quotes because in NY, there are (ridiculously) separate primary elections for Gov. and Lt. Gov. (They run on one ticket in the general.) So it's conceivable that Spitzer would win the nomination while his favorite choice for second-chair loses. In fact, this happened in 1998, when Peter Vallone's preferred choice, Clyde Rabideau, lost to Sandra Frankel. At the time, though, Vallone didn't command nearly the power that Spitzer does now, and the gubernatorial nomination was much more hotly contested. So I think Spitzer's endorsement is likely to carry the day.
This is really all just pure politics, though. The Lt. Gov. has no important duties in NY except to replace the Governor in the event of incapacity or removal from office. So finding the ideal Lt. Gov. is really mostly a matter of creating some kind of perceived balance on the ticket. Eliot's obviously going for ethnic, not geographic, diversity - Patterson is black, but also hails from Manhattan. Patterson also has a pretty compelling bio (read the NYT story for more).
NYCO raises one angle not covered in the NYT story (which itself reads almost like a bloggy tea-leaf reading exercise). Patterson has been heavily involved with the Democratic effort to retake the state Senate - a goal which is tantalizingly within reach. This is of enormous importance because if the Dems can retake and hold the Senate, and if Spitzer can win a second term in 2010, we will be in a commanding position to shape redistricting for the 2012 elections. I imagine, though, that Patterson would not leave the Senate without ensuring that his efforts are in good hands.
Anyhow, in some other related news, Tom Suozzi is seeking to govern the whole of New York State, but he can't even seem to govern his own county these days. A couple of rebel Democratic county legislators, working with the Republicans, have shut down the Nassau legislature. If Suozzi can't handle a couple of wayward Dems - including one goon who's thrice filed for bankruptcy, lied about serving in Vietnam and even lied about graduating college - then how can he hope to command respect in Albany? The point, of course, is entirely academic. Suozzi isn't going to beat Spitzer - the last Q-Poll had Eliot up 72-8 (yes, 8).
Finally, the Daily News is reporting that Tom Golisano is about to jump in on the Republican side, and he may spend up to $125 million of his own money. Kind of sad that he wants to waste so much money on a losing effort (he's spent enormous sums before, only to lose three times in a row), but hey, it's his cash.
Posted at 04:19 PM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCI see that a new (big) name has jumped into the AZ-08 Dem primary (this is the race to replace outgoing Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe): TV anchor Patty Weiss, who is apparently well-known in the district. While there are a lot of candidates running, Weiss's entry primarily sets up a showdown between her and state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, the other major challenger. (Weiss even went so far as to pay for a poll running her & Giffords's name against the main Republican challenger, Randy Graf.)
Anyhow, what else is going on? New announcements, dropouts, what have you?
Posted at 10:00 AM in Open Threads | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, January 22, 2006
MO-Sen: McCaskill Leads Talent
Posted by DavidNYCA new poll from Research 2000 (likely voters, no trendlines):
McCaskill: 47
Talent: 44
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3.5%)
The partisan split is just about equal (around 80% of Republicans and Democrats support their party's candidate). The real issue is that independents favor McCaskill by a considerable margin, 50-41. Given McCaskill's consistently strong poll showings, Talent is probably right at the top of the second tier of vulnerable GOP incumbents. The 4Q fundraising numbers will be of especial interest in this race.
Research 2000 also tested MO-Gov, and showed Democratic AG Jay Nixon leading Republican incumbent Matt Blunt, 51-43. Unfortunately, Blunt is not up for re-election until 2008, so any poll here is just way too early. But Blunt, like his father (possibly Majority Leader Roy Blunt), is tainted by corruption and may face a desultory several years as governor (much like Ernie Fletcher in neighboring Kentucky).
(Thanks to hilltopper.)
Posted at 10:01 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Missouri | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, January 20, 2006
Murtha's Band of Brothers Falls In
Posted by DavidNYCI've said this before, and I'll say it again: There's nothing like strength in numbers. Republican cowards are attempting to swiftboat Rep. John Murtha. We won't let it happen. Col. Murtha's fellow veterans are justly incensed - they know that if you attack one servicemember, you attack them all. And so, Murtha's Band of Brothers is making a tremendous show of force on his behalf. The message to would-be swiftboaters: If you falsely come after one of our number, you're gonna have to deal with an entire platoon of us:
Questioning the honor of a decorated American veteran like Congressman Murtha shows a lack of respect for the sacrifices made by all those who serve.It is easy for cowards to attack the honorable service of veterans. All they need is a typewriter and a few leisurely hours. But, happily, the shrill attacks of partisan hacks are nothing to people like Jack Murtha.
It is not easy to toe the line, defending the American freedom for which so many have given what Lincoln called “the last full measure of devotion.”
I condemn anyone or any group that challenges the sacred honor and sacrifice of my fellow veterans, whether they are Republican or Democrat, man or woman. The people of my district know that the sacrifice of our men and women in uniform is sacred.
Chris Carney
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (PA-10)
I will stand beside John Murtha, in front of him, and behind him whenever some Member of Congress, who has never worn the uniform of her country, calls him a coward.As long as the Radical Right-highjacked Republican Party of Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff insists that the only way to discuss our nation’s involvement in Iraq is to call decorated Marines cowards, they demonstrate clearly that they have lost the legitimacy needed to govern.
A twice-awarded Purple Heart recipient need not prove to anyone — let alone someone who could not tell a Marine Colonel from Colonel Sanders — anything other than the ability to hold Patriotism above Partisanship.
Eric Massa
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (NY-29)
The partisan attacks on John Murtha by the chickenhawks of the radical right aptly demonstrates the hypocrisy of their failed leadership. Hiding behind the “support our troops” slogan, to send our sons and daughters to fight unnecessary wars, they attack real heroes who have served their country honorably and have been willing to sacrifice their own lives in the service of the United States of America. Demeaning John Murtha’s service is an affront to all American soldiers who have served in combat and especially to those who have been wounded and awarded the Purple Heart.As an Airborne Ranger with two tours of combat service in Vietnam, I am offended beyond words. The actions of these political weasels are not only despicable, they are un-American.
Terry F. Stulce
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (TN-03)
Read on for more. Over a dozen veterans have already spoken out on Murtha's behalf, and more are doing so every day. To add your voice to theirs, please consider signing our petition.
The bottom line is that John Murtha volunteered to serve in Vietnam — enough said!Rick Penberthy
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (FL-05)
When they stoop to this level of slander, they only show how desperate they’ve become. They know they’ve made serious mistakes in Iraq but to cover up their own incompetence, they send out their proxies with outrageous lies about Congressman Murtha’s heroic military record.However, the American people are fed up with gutter politics. They want the Bush Administration to show that they know what they’re doing in Iraq, that they know what’s going on in Iraq and that they have a realistic exit strategy instead of meaningless platitudes such as “We’ll stay until the job is done.”
Rich Sexton
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (NJ-03)
It is unfortunate that the Bush Administration and Republican Party leadership have decided to continue their war AGAINST the troops and veterans with their dishonorable attacks on John Murtha. From Lew Puller in the late ’70s, through John McCain and Al Gore in 2000, Max Cleland in 2002, John Kerry in 2004, and now John Murtha, the Republican Party has attacked the military record of its opponents without regard for their valiant service to their country.A President who actively avoided serving in Vietnam now sees fit to attack a man who served heroically in several wars. Perhaps the saddest part of this is knowing that somewhere in Iraq right now there is a person serving their country with honor and distinction, and some day that service will be turned against them by the Republican Party if they should choose to be a Democrat. I call on Republican leaders to stop this Republican war on America’s veterans and instead to honor those who choose to serve their country!
Bill Winter
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (CO-06)
“Service is the rent we pay for room on this earth.” — Rep. Shirley ChisholmJohn Murtha has served this country proudly in times of war and peace. Following the logic of the late Rep. Shirley Chisholm, John Murtha has paid enough rent for himself and a few more people. This recent attack reflects poorly on the respect we have today for service because it illuminates the amount of energy spent tearing down the character of a person who served rather than honoring courageous effort.
It’s time for an attitude adjustment in this country. We can no longer say we support the troops when they fight for this country on foreign soil but treat them like the enemy when they fight for this country at home.
Mishonda Baldwin
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (MD-03)
I agree with Congressman Jack Murtha of Pennsylvania, who believes that we should remove our troops from Iraq as soon as possible. They are exhausted and demoralized. Rather than preventing violence, we have become a cause of the violence. If we withdraw, the insurgency will eventually quell, and the Iraqis will be free to manage and rule their own country. I advocate an immediate withdrawal of our troops from Iraq, not only to prevent further loss of life but to stop the further depletion of our national resources and treasure and to restore America’s honor and prestige throughout the world.John Wolfe
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (OH-13)
The attacks on the valor and sacrifice of John Murtha are an affront to every man and woman who has ever served this country. Like thousands of other veterans, I take the insults to John Murtha personally, and I am deeply angered.Rick Cornstuble
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (IN-04)
Attacking the military record of an American soldier, by groups too cowardly to use their own voices in the attack, is a travesty. How anyone could ever deign to speak ill of another American’s sacrifice for their nation is beyond me, particular a soldier with the extensive military and bipartisan political record of John Murtha.Anyone who does not immediately disavow support for such people and such heinous slurs is guilty of an obvious, despicable and disgusting lack of support for our troops and our veterans.
Dave Bruderly
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (FL-06)
Partisan and personal attacks by supporters of the war in Iraq against Jack Murtha should be viewed as validating his points. When people attack the messenger it is clear they have no ability to respond to the truth he is telling.Rep. Murtha is a Marine and these attacks will be but pin-pricks for him. Still, the assault on a man’s combat record in service to policies created by those who avoided combat is the work of pygmies.
Anyone who served in Viet Nam knows that enlisted Marines earned every damn medal they got, and many they never received. If you have not stood up to the test you cannot judge others who have.
When we talk of “cowardice” we ought perhaps to consider the behavior of the Commander-in-Chief. President Bush, who has sent men and women into harm’s way, often underequipped, and asked them to sacrifice for our country has not, since 2003 even had the guts to speak before a hostile audience. I always believed that leaders lead by example.
Al Weed
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (VA-05)
Here we go again, armchair warriors launching obscene attacks on the heroism of people who have placed themselves in harm’s way. This time it’s the courage of Congressman John Murtha — one tough Marine.This obscene attack sends a terrible message to all our service men and women, but especially those who are dying and being wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan this very day.
It is time for all Americans to denounce those who sully the Purple Heart and those who have earned it.
These so-called patriots so cavalierly send other people’s children into harm’s way without proper equipment or planning. And then they have the nerve to denigrate their wounds. How dare they demean such courage and sacrifice!
Phil Avillo
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (PA-19)
Remember the disgraceful “Swift Boat” attacks on John Kerry’s wartime service? Well, this time it’s Rep. Jack Murtha who is the target of the sleazy attacks.This is sick and sad.
I don’t completely agree with Jack Murtha’s approach on Iraq, but I understand where his frustration is coming from, and I have nothing but admiriation for his service both as a Marine and as a member of the Armed Services Committee. A man with Jack Murtha’s background deserves better than to be smeared by a group of Beltway apparatchiks who never wore a uniform once they got past Webelos or Brownies.
Peter Sullivan
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (NH-01)
The attempt to tarnish the military record of Jack Murtha and other Democratic veterans cheapens the long term value of military service for short the term partisan gain of Republican party hacks.Military service is the highest calling of citizenship. Those who denigrate the heroic sacrifice of men like Max Cleland and others denigrate the service of all veterans past and present.
The great and lasting attraction of military service has always been the universal, apolitical affection and respect Americans have for those who serve.
Shame on those who politicize service and patriotism at a time when both Republicans and Democrats are dying on the field of battle.
Bryan Lentz
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives (PA-07)
Posted at 07:08 PM in Band of Brothers, Democrats | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
OH-18: Ney to OH GOP: I'm Taking You Down with Me
Posted by DavidNYCWhoa. Now THIS is something:
Ohio Republican Chairman Bob Bennett said Thursday that he'd ask Rep. Bob Ney to resign from Congress if he were indicted on felony charges....
"No party boss tells my constituents what to do," Ney said. "They will decide this thing."
...
Asked if Ney planned to step down if Bennett urged him to do so, Ney said: "I would say if he asked me to step down that he'd better look in the mirror because glass houses break easily." (Emphasis added.)
Did I read that right, or did Bob Ney just accuse the entire Ohio GOP of corruption and threaten to take them down with him? Cuz that's what I think I read. Wow. This could really be explosive. I fully expect Ney to be indicted. If he is, and he carries through on his threat, we will see some serious freakin' fireworks.
(Thanks to OHDemVoter.)
UPDATE: Like cockroaches scurrying from the light! Bob Bennet has already caved in to Ney at warp speed:
Bennett backed off Thursday, saying: ``Rep. Ney has said he believes a fair and thorough investigation will help to clear his name, and I take him at his word. It's important to let that process play out and to get all the facts on the table.''Bennett also told Fox the party would find a candidate to oppose Ney in a primary if he were indicted and refused to step down. Bennett also backpedaled on that statement Thursday.
``We are actively working toward his re-election, and I am confident that he will handle this challenge with the best interest of his constituents in mind,'' Bennett said.
Ney must have something on this guy - on all these guys - for Bennet to backpedal so quickly. What an unbelievable admission of guilt! Now, imagine if Ney gets indicted and refuses to resign. That's gonna get nas-tay!
(Thanks to RBH.)
Posted at 01:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio, Republicans | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
MN-Sen: Wetterling to Make Annoucement Today - Is She Dropping Out?
Posted by DavidNYCMN's Patty Wetterling is going to make some sort of announcement today about her candidacy for US Senate. I think you only make candidacy announcements in two situations: To tell people that you're running or to tell people that you're dropping out. What I don't get is why she'd scheduled it for a Friday afternoon. If she's gonna drop out and endorse rival Amy Klobuchar, that's newsworthy. And if she's gonna instead run for Congress in MN-06 again, that's also newsworthy. So why try burying the story?
Anyhow, the announcement is schedule for 2pm local time, so it's not for a bit. But the AP is already claiming they know that she'll drop out. Since Wetterling's opponent in 2004 (Mark Kennedy) is now also running for Senate, a race again in MN-06 is particularly attractive because it's now an open seat. The district did go for Bush by 57-42, but Wetterling out-performed that (losing 54-46). She could definitely win this time around. (Though I'll note that there's already a Dem candidate running, Elwyn Tinklenberg.)
In any event, we'll know soon enough.
UPDATE: So Wetterling has indeed dropped out. She endorsed Klobuchar, but refused to discuss possible future plans. Options include MN-06, Lt. Gov. or Secretary of State. Some commenters think the current candidate in MN-06 (Tinklenberg) is strong and that Wetterling ought to run for another office.
Posted at 01:22 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Minnesota | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
HI-Sen: Rep. Case to Challenge Sen. Akaka in Primary
Posted by DavidNYCIn some very unusual news, Democratic Rep. Ed Case (HI-02) has announced that he'll challenge incumbent Sen. Daniel Akaka in a primary. While I don't know nearly as much about Hawaiian politics as I do about New York's, this move strikes me as a pointless Tom Suozzi gesture. Akaka is one of the most popular senators around, and HI's even-more-beloved Sen. Daniel Inouye is rallying around him, as is the rest of the Dem establishment:
Inouye and Abercrombie both said they would stand behind Akaka, which could isolate Case within the party."I intend to continue to give Senator Akaka my support," Inouye said in a statement. "I hope Congressman Case will reconsider his decision to challenge Senator Akaka, and will instead seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives. Also, I have been advised that Senator Akaka has the full support of the leadership of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee."
I think Case has literally zero chance of knocking off Akaka. In the past two-and-a-half decades, only three incumbent senators have lost primaries, and all were under freakish circumstances. And unlike Toomey-Specter, Akaka-Case hardly presents the kind of ideological and stylistic rifts that could even give Case the slightest toehold.
Moreover, Akaka's won his last two elections with over 70% of the vote. (In a primary challenge in 2000, he came away with 91%.) If Case hopes to hang his hat on the issue of Akaka's age, good luck. Akaka's no addled Jacob Javits - and do you think he even looks close to his age? Man, I hope I look that good when I'm an octogenarian!
Inouye is counselling patience, but I doubt Case will listen any more than Suozzi did. As I did with Suozzi, I predict this futile run will really damage Case's future in Hawaiian politics.
As far as Case's seat goes, I think Dems should be able to hold it. The district (probably the slightly more Democratic of Hawaii's two seats) went for Kerry by 56-44, and Case won his last election by over 30%. Simply because it's an open seat, it'll be more competitive than it would otherwise be, but I'm pretty confident. (And I'm not really sure the HI GOP has all that much of a bench.) One friend who is knowledgeable about the HI political scene tells me he wants to see State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa take the seat. (She came in third in a special election in HI-02 in 2003.) Who do you like to replace Case?
Posted at 12:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 19, 2006
PA-Gov: Swann Surges Against Rendell
Posted by DavidNYCA new poll from Rasmussen on PA-Gov (likely voters, Nov. in parens):
Rendell: 45 (50)
Swann: 43 (36)Rendell: 46 (47)
Scranton: 36 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Ed Rendell is the incumbent Democratic Governor. The Republicans are Lynn Swann, a former star received for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Bill Scranton, a former Lt. Gov. Swann just formally announced his candidacy a couple of weeks ago and may be benefitting from the media coverage. The stability of the Rendell-Scranton numbers suggests, at least, that Rendell is not to blame for Swann's surge.
Here's my question to Pennsylvanians: Rendell is the consummate pol's pol and strikes me as unlikely to make too many obvious mistakes. But does Swann have what it takes to be as slick on the campaign trail as he was on the gridiron? Or is he coasting on star power and name rec now, only to get taken down once things heat up?
Posted at 11:19 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Pennsylvania | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
On Internal Polls
Posted by DavidNYCAs a general rule, there are certain kinds of polls I don't like to report. One are Zogby's Internet polls - I don't trust the methodology or accuracy. I'm also always somewhat suspicious of partisan polls, for obvious reasons. And, likewise, I'm definitely very skeptical of internal campaign polls. I'm not saying that independent polls are always right, or better, or anything so extreme - but I do think, on average, they deserve greater trust. (And if you want to compare pollsters, SurveyUSA has put together some great interactive spreadsheets covering just about every outfit in the land.)
Anyhow, I say all this because you may have heard about an internal poll from John Morrison, showing him up 39-20 over Jon Tester in the Montana Democratic senate primary. As I say, I'm no fan of internal polls - I didn't give any airtime to Sherrod Brown's recent survey, either. But I also don't want to be accused of ignoring "bad news" about Jon Tester, a guy I support. I'm not going to spend time trying to dissect this poll - and in any event, we've got almost no information about it except for the topline number. It's clearly not good news for Tester, but I'll wait until we have an independent poll on this primary before I sink my teeth into anything.
Posted at 04:55 PM in Polls | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Debating the Wisdom of a Primary Challenge
Posted by DavidNYCIn discussing whether we should support or oppose a primary challenge to Lieberman, there are tons of issues at play. Allocation of resources is far from the only one. Matt Stoller thoughtfully analyzes all the reprecussions we might see if Ned Lamont mounts a challenge to Lieberman, and especially what kind of fallout is likely if the blogosphere (or much of it, anyway) gets behind Lamont. I encourage you to read it in full.
Posted at 12:39 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CA-11: Former Rep. McCloskey to Announce Primary Challenger to Pombo
Posted by DavidNYCRep. Dick Pombo is one of many, many ethically challenged GOP poster boys. He's one of CREW's thirteen most-corrupt members of Congress not named Tom DeLay. He's also the target of a spirited, multi-way Democratic primary. And now, he's got a primary challenger of his own to deal with - only, we won't know who it is until Monday.
Former Rep. Pete McCloskey - a moderate Republican from back when the term actually meant something - is fed up with Pombo and has been recruiting a challenger for quite some time. If he can't find anyone else, McCloskey has said that he would run, despite his age (he's 78). While I doubt any Republican could unseat Pombo, a nasty Republican primary is only good news for us. (And primaries where challengers take on incumbents necessarily have to be nasty, assuming they get on the radar screen in the first place.) Since McCloskey's candidate (or McCloskey himself) will be making an issue of Pombo's ethical malfeasance, I'm sure the Republicans will churn up fodder for our side to use after the primary.
Say No to Pombo is rooting for McCloskey himself to enter the race - the sole fact that the guy is a former Congressman makes him at least somewhat credible (even if he hasn't held office in ages), and thus able to command some media attention. In any event, I encourage you to follow this race at SNTP.
Posted at 12:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Gov: Tim Kaine to Deliver SOTU Response
Posted by DavidNYCAccording to Roll Call (sub. req.), the Dems will ask newly elected Virginia Governor Tim Kaine to deliver our party's response to the State of the Union address. Hamsher of FireDogLake thinks we should be tapping John Murtha, and I'm inclined to agree. I like Tim Kaine, and I think he's certainly a good choice. But I think Murtha is the better choice, because he's associated with an issue we really need to lead with, and because we need to strike while the iron is hot - Murtha was making waves not long ago. It might also give him a chance to (obliquely) hammer the newest round of Swift Boaters. But I'm guessing the decision has been made, and Kaine it will be.
Posted at 12:15 PM in Democrats, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
OH-02: McEwen to Challenge Schmidt
Posted by DavidNYCFormer Rep. Bob McEwen has announced that he'll challenge Rep. Jean Schmidt in a primary. McEwen lost to Schmidt in the special election primary last year. He also used to represent southern Ohio's 6th district, but lost to Democrat Ted Strickland (now running for OH-Gov) after redistricting in 1992. (He was actually a rare Republican victim of Newt Gingrich's hyping of the House check-kiting scandal.)
Anyhow, I'll bet that McEwen won't be the only one to take on Schmidt. She's incredibly vulnerable (at least in a primary), given her abysmally weak win over Paul Hackett and her atrocious performance on the floor of the House. However, win or lose, I doubt that lightning will strike twice and that we'll see another competitive race in OH-02 in November.
(Thanks to Georgia10.)
Posted at 10:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Lamont-Lieberman vs. Toomey-Specter
Posted by DavidNYCOver at DailyKos, Adam B raises an interesting comparison. But first, a little background. In 2004, conservative PA Rep. Pat Toomey challenged incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter for the GOP nomination. Toomey came remarkably close, losing by just 51-49, or 17,000 votes out of over one million cast. If the wind had puffed ever so slightly more in Toomey's direction, he would have pulled off the remarkable feat of knocking out a sitting Senator in a primary.
There are, of course, a lot of differences between Toomey-Specter and Lamont-Lieberman. We can pore over those at length in due time. But if you accept for the moment that we can legitimately compare the two matchups, I wanted to toss some more numbers at you.
The CT primary is around six-and-a-half months from now - Aug. 9th. In October of 2003, also about 6 to 7 months out from the PA primary, Quinnipiac (the same pollster I referred to below) did a poll on the senate race in that state. This time, I just want to look at Dem voters in CT and GOP voters in PA (forget about tags like "liberal" or "conservative").
Job Approval
Specter among Republicans: 57-30
Lieberman among Democrats: 55-29Favorability (favorable-unfavorable-mixed)
Specter among Republicans: 49-18-25
Lieberman among Democrats: 50-15-28
Six months out, Specter was looking pretty comfortable. But as Adam notes, the race tightened considerably in a very short amount of time, and Specter came within a hair's breadth of an early retirement. Lieberman's numbers are virtually identical.
Now, on to those differences. The most obvious is that Toomey had held political office, whereas Lamont is a newcomer. Toomey also had big money from the Club for Growth and the grassroots. However, Lamont himself is wealthy and has allegedly promised to spend over a million dollars of his own on the race. Plus, MoveOn and perhaps DFA might get behind him, too. Moreover, the entire top-tier GOP establishment (including Bush, Cheney, Santorum and Rove) showed up in PA to bail Arlen's sorry ass. Will Clinton, Kerry, Gore (hah) and Dean (double-hah) do the same for Joe?
Now, we can definitely debate the wisdom of whether Lamont should take on Lieberman. I'm fairly torn, but I'm personally leaning toward "yes." However, I doubt we'll come to any kind of resolution, or shed more light on the subject. I'd wager that we're all very familiar with all the pros and cons - which is why I'm more interested in discussing what's likely to happen, not whether it should happen. And on that score, I definitely think Lieberman is beatable.
Posted at 06:38 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NE-01: Moul (D) Makes it Official
Posted by DavidNYCFormer NE Lt. Gov. Maxine Moul has filed to run against Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry in Nebraska's first Congressional District in the eastern part of the state. Though Moul stepped down from her job in 1993, I have to imagine that a former Lieutenant Governor running for Congress ought to make a pretty strong candidate. (Moul beat four other candidates in her original Lt. Gov. primary.)
Furthermore, Fortenberry is a freshman, which means he's at his most vulnerable. Nebraska's Democratic Party has also been reinvigorated of late. That said, this district went for Bush 63-36, so we're talking Chet Edwards territory (ie, very thin air for Democrats). However, Fortenberry dramatically underperformed Bush in 2004, winning by just 54-43.
Moul doesn't appear to have a website yet, but she's going on a launch tour. If you live in NE, you can check out her event locations and dates here.
Posted at 03:17 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Nebraska | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
WI-08: NRCC Picks a Candidate
Posted by DavidNYCThe current rep of WI-08, Republican Mark Green, is running for Governor. The district went for Bush 55-44, which means a Dem could possibly win there, especially since it's an open seat. Mindful of that - and Wisconsin's late primary date, in September - the NRCC has decided to get involved on the GOP side. It's unusual for groups like the NRCC, DCCC, etc. to take sides in contested primaries, but sometimes they do.
In any event, they've tapped WI Assembly Speaker John Gard. Gard's opponent, state Rep. Terri McCormick, is obviously pissed and may yet cause trouble. On our side, we've got three people running: Wealthy self-funding doctor Steve Kagen, Ex-GOPer Nancy Nussbaum, and Jamie Wall, an economic development director for current Dem Gov. Jim Doyle.
A contested primary has both positive and negative aspects. However, I think the negatives can start to outweigh the positives in situations where a) the primary is very late and b) one side doesn't have a primary. If the Dem primary is expensive (which it may well become, especially with Kagen's presence), the short turn-around time may leave Dems short of cash in the final stretch run. I'm not suggesting the DCCC follow the NRCC's lead here, but if this is looking like a top-tier pickup opportunity, they should keep some cash stashed away to be deployed after the primary.
Posted at 02:54 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Wisconsin | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Is Lieberman Beatable?
Posted by DavidNYCLet me start by saying I am not trying to debate the issue of whether Joe Lieberman should be challenged by a Dem or an independent. Rather, I'd like to discuss the mechanics of such a challenge - what it would look like, and whether it might succeed.
To that end, I don't think former Gov. Lowell Weicker can beat Lieberman as an independent. Quinnipiac recently released a poll showing Lieberman beating Weicker in a direct head-to-head (with no Republican) by 65-21. I doubt that Weicker could overcome such a huge gap, especially since his favorability rating is negative - he garners only 19% positive and 32% negative. Pretty harsh.
However, I think a primary challenge could succeed. Lieberman gets pretty good job approval from Dems (55-29), while Republican approval of him is a good bit higher (68-20). And his favorability rating among Dems is good as well (50-15). But those numbers only tell part of the story.
By a 52-39 margin, Dems say Lieberman should once again be the senatorial nominee. That's not exactly terrific. But it gets even more interesting. Self-identified liberals - who strike me as being more representative of primary voters than just self-identified Dems - are tied on the question. Forty-seven percent say Lieberman should be re-nominated; forty-seven percent say "someone else."
This is the pivot-point for Ned Lamont. He would only need to move that 47% number just a wee bit in order to dethrone Lieberman. For Lieberman to avoid that fate, he'd either have to tone down his attacks on fellow Democrats or try to put daylight between himself and Bush on the Iraq war issue. It's not clear to me that he could do that successfully, given how stubbornly he's refused to change his ways over the past five years. In other words, I think Lamont would have a chance.
Posted at 02:14 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
CT-Sen: Lieberman Needs to Brush Up on Connecticut Election Law
Posted by DavidNYCIn a recent interview with a local CT newspaper, the Waterbury Republican-American, Joe Lieberman related the following:
He then added, in response to a question, that if he were to lose a primary he would still seek re-election."I intend to be on the ballot in November," he declared.
There's only one problem here. Dear Joseph needs to study up on Title 9 of the Connecticut Code, specifically § 9-453i:
Submission to town clerk or Secretary of the State.(a) Each page of a nominating petition proposing a candidate for an office to be filled at a regular election shall be submitted to the appropriate town clerk or to the Secretary of the State not later than four o'clock p.m. on the ninetieth day preceding the day of the regular election.
This means that independent candidates have to submit petitions by August 9th, 2006. It just so happens that the Connecticut primary is on August 8th. In other words, if Joe loses the primary, in order to run as an independent in the general, he'd have to file petitions the very next day.
This is all but a literal impossibility. Joe would have to collect petitions while still running in the Dem primary. Can you imagine such a spectacle? It would be beyond unheard of for a sitting senator to do such a thing. The only real way Lieberman could run as an indie would be if he abandoned the Democratic Party (save your jokes) well in advance of the primary. Otherwise, he's just talking smack. If he loses the primary, he's done, finished, tostada del dia.
Posted at 04:44 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NJ-Sen: Kean Leads, but Huge Undecideds
Posted by DavidNYCSometimes, I think pollsters feel pressure to present "clean" data - they word questions in such a way as to produce definite answers, and push leaners when they waver. This makes poll results easier to analyze, but probably skews the picture. In real life, for non-political junkies, many people don't make up their minds a year in advance, and so it is with Fairleigh Dickinson's latest poll (registered voters, no trendlines):
Menendez: 25
Kean: 36
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±4%)
Though their overall name rec is similar, Kean's favorability is a good bit better than Menendez's (41-12 vs. 33-17). Kean has the advantage of bearing his father's name - but don't forget that Menendez will soon have the advantage of being an incumbent senator. That 37% undecided could get split up a lot of ways. My gut tells me that ultimately Menendez will prevail due to the favorable partisan split in NJ, but I think this race is going to be tougher than we'd like. I think New Jersey is sort of like the New York Mets: Sometimes the Mets put together decent teams and win a few, but they always make you sweat. Same with Jersey.
P.S. PoliticsNJ is reporting that Frank Pallone won't challenge Menendez. I don't know if PoliticsNJ is a reliable source, but hopefully we'll see an official confirm of that soon. Also, Corzine will soon decide whether to call a special election to fill Menendez's House seat, or just wait until the regular June primary/November general. This is a super-Dem district, so I imagine the real action will be at primary time.
Posted at 03:39 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, New Jersey | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
MS-Sen: Lott to Run Again
Posted by DavidNYCUnfortunately, MS Sen. Trent Lott has decided to seek a fourth term this fall. I presume that neither of the top-tier Dem names that have been floated (former AG Mike Moore and Rep. Gene Taylor) will try running against Lott. If there is a silver lining, it is because Lott (ever since he was stripped of his leadership post) has become a GOP troublemaker, a thorn in the side of the party establishment. If he returns to the Senate, he'll still be throwing the occasional monkey-wrench into his own side's plans - and he might even really make things ugly by running for majority leader again.
Posted at 02:00 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Mississippi | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, January 16, 2006
Martin Luther King
Posted by DavidNYCMartin Luther King has been a hero of mine for as long as I can remember, and he'll always remain so. His 1963 letter from the jail in Birmingham, Alabama will forever stay with me. And his words take on a keen new relevance today:
Moreover, I am cognizant of the interrelatedness of all communities and states. I cannot sit idly by in Atlanta and not be concerned about what happens in Birmingham. Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly. Never again can we afford to live with the narrow, provincial "outside agitator" idea. Anyone who lives inside the United States can never be considered an outsider anywhere within its bounds.
Indeed.
Posted at 01:58 PM in General | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
MS-Sen: Lott to Announce Plans Tuesday
Posted by DavidNYCTrent Lott has allegedly been considering retiring from the Senate, after his family home was destroyed in Hurricane Katrina. Via reader jcb, it looks like he's finally set to make an announcement one way or the other:
BLITZER: We're almost out of time, but a couple questions to both of you. There's word out there that you may be leaving, retiring from the U.S. Senate, making an announcement even in the next few days. Is that true?LOTT: I spent the Christmas holidays in my state visiting with the people that I love the most, my relatives, my neighbors, people on the Mississippi Gulf Coast that were devastated by Katrina.
It's been a complicated decision because of all that we've been through in the last year. But my heart is with the people there and I'm going to do everything I can to be helpful to them as long as it's necessary. And I have that capability.
But, any announcement on that, I plan to begin with announcements in my hometown of Pascagoula, Mississippi on the Mississippi Gulf coast Tuesday and then in Jackson later on in the day.
BLITZER: So, you'll make an announcement one way or another whether you're going to seek re-election or retire?
LOTT: That's right.
As jcb observes, why the hell make announcements in multiple cities unless you're barnstorming with an eye on November? I suppose it could be some kind of farewell tour - hit his hometown, then the state capital. But I think jcb is probably right. So here's the question: If Lott does indeed stay in, would former Democratic AG Mike Moore still consider running against him? Lott is one of the most popular senators in the country, so that (plus MS's unfavorable demographics) would probably militate against such a decision.
Posted at 12:34 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Mississippi | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, January 15, 2006
OH-18: Ney Resigns Cmte. Chairmanship; Other Shoe in Mid-Drop
Posted by DavidNYCAs expected, today Rep. Bob Ney stepped down (allegedly temporarily) as chairman of the House Administration Committee. Pretty embarrassing that the head of the committee responsible for House governance and oversight is so wickedly corrupt, but that's the modern GOP for ya. This says to me that it can't be long before Ney gets indicted. With Abramoff singing like Maria Callas at karaoke night, Ney's gonna wanna cooperate, too, lest he face an actual jail sentence - that is, if there's even anyone for him to give up. Sometimes it's lonely indeed at the top.
Anyhow, I haven't focused much on the electoral fallout of all this, but nothing could be better for a potential Democratic challenger than a badly wounded, criminally indicted incumbent - OH-18 could be the Rust Belt version of TX-22. The big difference is that this district, while strongly GOP, is nowhere near as Republican as DeLay's: It went 57-43 for Bush. A tough margin to overcome, but within the realm of imagination. (Democrat Tim Holden's PA-17, for instance, was 58-42.)
According to the DCCC website, three people have filed to take on Ney: Zack Space, Joe Sulzer, and Jeff Woollard. What have you heard about these folks?
Posted at 08:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCAny new candidacy announcements in your neck of the woods?
Posted at 12:56 AM in Open Threads | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TX-22: Lampson Leading in Wide-Open Poll
Posted by DavidNYCAn interesting - if hard-to-read - poll on TX-22 from the Houston Chronicle (registered voters, no trendlines):
Lampson: 30
DeLay: 22
Stockman: 11
None: 11
Undecided 27
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Steven Stockman is a former one-term GOP Congressman (swept in in `94, booted in `96 by Nick Lampson, actually) who is thinking about a possible independent challenge to DeLay. Presumably, he'd drawn Republican votes from the Bugman.
With crazy numbers like these - nearly 40% not even expressing a preference - it would probably be a mistake to read too much into this poll, at least as far as the horserace numbers go. But the Chron asked several other relevant questions. DeLay's favorability rating is a brutal 28-60. (Sixty? Ouch!) And 47% of respondents said he should withdraw from the race (vs. 40% who said he should stay in). That would actually be a bad thing for Lampson, as TX-22 is a very Republican district and Tom DeLay is by far the most beatable candidate he could face.
Wackily, DeLay only gets 21% in a question on the GOP primary (there are some Republicans running against him), with 68% undecided. Perhaps district voters are just unaccustomed to having to vote for DeLay in a primary - but perhaps it's also a sign of tremendously weak support among his putative base. That 21% is identical to his total in the general election matchup. Incumbents lose primaries even more rarely than they lose general elections, so I really, truly doubt that DeLay could get knocked off in a primary. But this number is really startling, and must be giving him indigestion.
(Thanks to Evan at Tom DeLay vs. the World. Full list of questions is here.)
Posted at 12:25 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, January 14, 2006
PA-12: Don Bailey: Biased, Bitter & Bonkers
Posted by DavidNYCFormer Rep. Don Bailey ("D"-PA) is making up stories about conversations he allegedly had with Rep. John Murtha. Why do I know that Bailey is bullshitting?
Pennsylvania 12th Congressional District Primary - May, 1982John Murtha: 52%
Don Bailey: 38%
That primary was a poignant election - Bailey and Murtha, both incumbent Congressmen, were pitted against each other because Pennsylvania had lost seats after the 1980 census. No one feels more entitled to his next victory than an incumbent - and because incumbents lose re-election campaigns so rarely, failure is exceptionally galling to them. I am sure Bailey has been carrying around a grudge - "It should have been him, not me!" - against Murtha for over twenty years. Bailey's so embittered he's become delusional: He thinks that a one-sided recollection by an obviously biased party constitutes legitimate news.
Oh, and how angry was Bailey after his loss in May of 1982? Angry enough that the Republicans were courting him to run against Murtha in the general election that fall!
Democratic Rep. Don Bailey is doing nothing to discourage growing speculation he'll run for Congress as a Republican in November. Bailey, a casualty of reapportionment this year, lost to fellow Democratic Rep. John Murtha by more than 8,000 votes in the May primary.Talk of a Murtha-Bailey rematch has been growing since Clair Saylor, the GOP nominee, withdrew from the race, citing lack of support and money. [UPI, 7/5/1982]
Bailey's been peddling his lies since 2002, when Murtha was once again involved in an incumbent-vs.-incumbent race. Yet if Murtha supposedly made some confession to Bailey during the ABSCAM goings-on in 1980 (as Bailey claimed to the National Journal), why didn't Bailey use that against Murtha in 1982? The answer doesn't change: The story is bullshit, and Bailey hadn't bothered to invent it yet. Rather, Bailey - after spending two decades losing a whopping four more races - dreamed up his tale in 2002 as a way to settle an old score against Murtha. (He failed, badly: Murtha won the primary that year 54-30.)
I obviously expect every gutter-dwelling conservative website... but I repeat myself. I obviously expect every conservative website to fawn all over Don Bailey's every phony word. He's a less credible witness than a nun-beating crack dealer - in other words, perfect for the non-reality-based community. But if the traditional media wishes to pay attention to Bailey's pedigree, they'll realize there's no way he could be telling truth. His story doesn't add up, and his motives are so nakedly venal that it should be plain for anyone to see.
Posted at 05:57 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NJ-Sen: Andrews Won't Challenge Menendez
Posted by DavidNYCRep. Rob Andrews has said he won't challenge Rep. (and soon-to-be Sen.) Bob Menendez in a primary this year. Tom Suozzi could learn a thing or two from Andrews:
"The idea of engaging in a primary that would drain resources away from our Democratic Party, that would distract us from taking on the fight we ought to be taking on in the fall, is the wrong thing to do," Mr. Andrews said in a news conference at the State House.
No word yet from Rep. Frank Pallone, but I'd guess he'll decline to challenge as well.
Posted at 04:19 AM in 2006 Elections - Senate, New Jersey | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NY-Gov: Now It's Too Late
Posted by DavidNYCJust the other day, I suggested that Tom Suozzi could still back out from his stupid, politically suicidal plan to challenge Eliot Spitzer for the gubernatorial primary. Well, now it's too late. Ala Jeanine Pirro, he's not exactly off to a smooth start:
"That's good policy stuff I just gave you. Eliot's been running for a [expletive] year and he hasn't -- " Mr. Suozzi stopped himself at that point, then asked if the comment could be excluded from this article. However, there was no prior agreement in place to allow Mr. Suozzi to select his remarks.
If Suozzi sticks it out until September, his only friends left will be the greedy Wall Street Republicans who are bitter that they got caught behaving improperly by Spitzer. But at this point, Suozzi doesn't seem like someone whom any sense can be smacked into. This is going to be a long, stupid, ugly, pointless primary, with an outcome as clear today as it will be on election day. Sigh. What a waste.
Posted at 02:53 AM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, January 13, 2006
Band of Brothers: Evaluating Races
Posted by DavidNYCThis is an auspicious time for veterans: There are now close to forty running for the House as Dems this year, with more filing each week. For an organization like Band of Brothers - tasked with helping these candidates - the sheer numbers present an unusual challenge. Every office-seeker, every district, every campaign is different. What might be useful to one candidate may not be so for another; what might resonate in one part of the country may be irrelevant in another.
Our mission, therefore, is to evaluate each race so that we can deploy our resources most efficiently. To that end, we're expanding and refining our list of questions that we ask of every candidate, opponent and district. We're talking questions ranging from the simple ("Has the candidate ever run for office before?") to the wonky (eg, nitty-gritty demographic data). This allows us to create a detailed dossier on each race so that we can maximize the effectiveness of our involvement, wherever we are asked to step in.
However, we don't purport to have all the answers - or in this case, rather, all the questions. So Band of Brothers is conducting a survey to see what kinds of questions you would ask regarding all these races. For now, we aren't looking to see which candidates are most popular, or which issues are most important. Rather, we want to hear what you would want to know about each and every Band of Brothers candidate, their likely Republican opponents, and the districts they are running in.
If you'd like to help us with this project, please click here. That link will take you to a simple web form where you can submit questions. (Just bear in mind that we are looking for questions that we'd ask about every race, not any specific race.) Thanks for your help!
Posted at 02:22 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Band of Brothers | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 12, 2006
NY-Gov: Tom Suozzi's Brain
Posted by DavidNYCSo Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi thinks he wants to challenge Eliot Spitzer. Here are possible scenarios for Suozzi, with my estimated likely outcome percentages:
1) He beats Spitzer in a primary. Ha ha.2) He loses embarrassingly. 75% chance.
3) He loses, but by some arbitrary margin which insiders and the media agree means that he "did surprisingly well" and "raised his profile across the state." 25% chance.
Don't forget that no matter what the outcome, he will earn the undying ill will of many if not most Democrats throughout the state. I'm probably over-estimating Suozzi's odds of nailing #3, but in any event, that's his best-case scenario. But what does that even get him? In other words, where does he go with his newly-enhanced profile? Here are his options, and how viable they each look to me:
• Primary challenge again to incumbent Governor Eliot Spitzer in 2010. Whatever.• Primary challenge to Senator-for-Life Chuck Schumer in 2010. Uh huh.
• Primary challenge to Spitzer's appointed replacement for Hillary Clinton (should she become President), presumably in 2010. Suozzi certainly won't be Spitzer's appointee. Bleak.
• Vie for Hillary's senate seat in 2012, possibly against Hillary herself. Ugh if it's Hillary. If it's an open seat, it'll be a lively primary, and Suozzi will be six years away from his crowning achievement... a primary loss to the incumbent governor.
Suozzi's choices, in other words, suck, no matter what. But what I should really say is that any overly ambitious New York politician not named Spitzer, Schumer or Clinton will have to cool his or her heels for quite a few years yet to come. There just aren't any good opportunities to move up the ranks (except for Rep. Anthony Weiner, who is poised for a strong NYC mayoral run in 2009).
Suozzi is manifestly impatient, to the point that it's very dangerous to his own dreams. Any run against Spitzer, as I say, would lead to a harsh and permanent backlash against him from many quarters. Moreover, he's already behaving in damaging ways - allegedly courting an endorsement from Republican (!) Tom Golisano, and receiving loud backing from Home Depot CEO & bigtime winger Kenneth Langone (who harbors a grudge against Spitzer).
Politicians do dumb stuff all the time. Most of the time (perhaps sadly) those stupid mistakes can be overcome. Tom Suozzi is about to embark on a different kind of mistake, though - the kind which can't be repaired or forgiven, and which will never be forgotten. I think his ability to damage Spitzer is mercifully quite limited, but I hate to see this kind of ridiculousness regardless. It's not too late to back out. I still maintain he should challenge Peter King in NY-03 (Suozzi lives in King's district). I hope he changes his mind.
Posted at 01:59 AM in 2006 Elections - State, New York | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TX-22: Petard-Hoisting Edition: How Much Bluer Did DeLay's District Get?
Posted by DavidNYCOne seemingly delightful storyline relating to Tom DeLay's illegal mid-decade redistricting scheme goes like this: By making several other districts more Republican, DeLay made his own more Democratic, thus endangering his own electoral safety. The thought alone makes images of golden petards dance through your head. But just how true is this claim, though?
The New York Times weighs in, citing unnamed political analysts who claim that TX-22 got about five percent more Dem. But any good arithmetic teacher wants you to show your work, which the NYT naturally can't do because of space considerations. However, Evan (at Tom Delay vs. The World) has done exactly that. And his conclusions are a little less rosy:
New parts of CD22 voted 51.8% GOP in 2002 congressional races, and 49.6% GOP in 2000 congressional races. The parts DeLay gave up in new CD22: 62.1% GOP in 2002 congressional races, and 56.2% GOP in 2000 congressional races.The bottom line: DeLay's new district is about 2-3% less Republican than it used to be. Redistricting removed areas that voted around 60% GOP and added areas that vote around 50% GOP.
Yes, we're only talking about a disagreement over a couple or three percentage points, but in a tight race, that can matter a whole hell of a lot. Either way, though, DeLay's district did not change dramatically. Nick Lampson still has huge hurdles to overcome. Even after the DeLay-mander, this district went for Bush 64-36. There aren't many redder districts currently represented by a Dem.
As Evan points out in the same post, DeLay underperformed in 2004. It's possible that this was due to Richard Morrison's insurgent campaign, or DeLay's budding ethical problems. But it also may have been due to the fact that almost a third of the voters in the redrawn TX-22 were new to Tom DeLay. While (a) the ethics issues are far, far worse, and (b) the challenger is much stronger, on the flip-side, (c) DeLay is no longer unfamiliar to those voters. We'll have to see if A + B outweigh C this time around.
Posted at 01:27 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
MT-Sen: Tester Tied with Burns, Morrison Close
Posted by DavidNYCFrom Rasmussen (likely voters, Sept. in parens):
Tester: 45 (38)
Burns: 45 (51)Morrison: 43 (39)
Burns: 46 (51)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
That's a lot of movement, and fantastic news for our side. Burns' cash advantage no longer seems to be helping him, and I can only conclude that the harsh negative fallout from his entanglements with Abramoff is hurting him. Just the other day, Burns had to embarassingly insist that he wasn't going to drop out of the race. He sounded a lot like Janeane Pirro to me - in other words, I wasn't buying his shtick that he was stickin'.
Burns clearly should bail - just think of how much more money he could make (and how many fewer constituents he'd have to worry about) if he took a sweet lobbying job. Doesn't he want to be comfortable in his retirement, and take care of his kids and grandkids? The issue, though, is of course whether he will retire. And here's the thing: If the GOP can't pull a Torricelli on Santorum - hell, if they can't even pull a Gillooly on Katherine Harris - then I don't see how Burns can be pushed aside. The Republican Party is leaderless at the top - Frist is crippled, Liddy Dole is incompetent. I think GOP Senate candidates are just gonna do their own thing from now until November.
Anyhow, as I say, this poll is tremendous for our side, and especially for Tester - Morrison supporters have often said he won't have enough money to compete, but that's clearly not hurting him. I'd love to see an independent poll of the primary matchup, but for now, why not send some coin Tester's way? In the eyes of the traditional media, this poll officially marks this race as a top-tier pickup opportunity, and Tester deserves our help.
Posted at 01:02 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Montana | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
HI-Gov: Do Dems Finally Have a Candidate?
Posted by DavidNYCOn the good side: The Dems may finally have a candidate to take on Republican HI Gov Lindle Lingle. Though he's still mulling his choices, former state Sen. Randall Iwase says "every fiber of my being wants to run for governor." That's a lot better than the usual wishy-washy stuff you hear from candidates contemplating a run for higher office.
On the bad side: Iwase's been out of office since 2000 - that's the better part of a decade, now that we're into 2006. And I think Derrick DePledge (writing in the Honolulu Advertiser) gets this one pretty much right:
Without personal wealth or solid commitments of state or national fundraising, a candidate with no statewide name recognition, like Iwase, would have to build an extensive grass-roots network of support to be competitive against Lingle.
Iwase is not a strong candidate - certainly, at least, compared to, say, Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Still, like I say, at least we may have someone.
(Thanks to Taegan Goddard.)
Posted at 11:44 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Hawaii | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VT-Gov: Douglas With a Big Lead
Posted by DavidNYCJim Douglas, the Republican Governor of Vermont, holds a large lead over his Democratic opponent, former state Sen. Scudder Parker, according to Rasmussen (likely voters, no trendlines):
Parker: 31
Douglas: 54
Undecided: 11
(MoE: 4.5%)
Frustrating, given how Democratic Vermont usually is. It's hard for me to see how Parker might break through at this point - Douglas is very popular (65-26 approval rating, good for 8th out of 50, according to SUSA). And ethics scandals currently devastating the national GOP are likely to leave most Republican state officials in the clear. I hate to be a pessimist, but barring some unforeseeable major changes, the VT governor's mansion may well be out of reach for us this year. Fortunately, the governor only gets to serve a two-year term, so we'll get another crack at Douglas before long.
Meanwhile, independent Bernie Sanders is cruising in his bid to replace Sen. Jim Jeffords. So it looks like the House race will be Vermont's most interesting election this year. Sanders, by the way, is backing Democrat Peter Welch, and is advising left-wing third party candidates to avoid jumping into the race.
Posted at 10:16 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Vermont | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
The Politics of Billboards
Posted by DavidNYCBack in November, GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt slandered war hero Rep. John Murtha on the floor of Congress. When we sought to take the fight straight to her back yard, Lamar Advertising refused to run the DNC's billboard, on the grounds that it constituted "negative advertising." (Nevermind this.) That really (once again) dogged my cats. Anyhow, this is what the Schmidt billboard looked like:
To kick off the new year, the Campaign for America's Future has launched a big-time ethics assault on the already-indicted Tom DeLay and the soon-to-be-indicted Bob Ney (OH-18). One feature of this campaign also includes a billboard, stating the simple truth about Bob Ney:
Clear, direct, to the point - and nothing hurts quite like good old Mr. Truth. CAF says that this billboard is already up, "located above the east bound lanes of Rte. I-70 at exit 126, one mile west of State Rte. 37 in Heath, Ohio where Rep. Bob Ney lives." So a pat on the back to CAF, but an obvious question remains: Why were they able to get their billboard up while the DNC was not? Oh CAF, share with us your secrets, so that organizations across the land may torment powerful kleptocrats for the entire election season!
Posted at 09:41 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Activism, Ohio | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Atlantic Monthly on Fighting Dems
Posted by DavidNYCJosh Green, writing in the Atlantic Monthly, has a piece up on veterans running for Congress as Dems. One thing he does, which I had not yet seen, is put the current phenomenon in historical context. Veterans have a long tradition of running for office, something which ebbed only after Vietnam. What's happening today is not an abberation but rather a return to that noble tradition of service.
(Via Hotline On Call.)
UPDATE: Grr. The original link I got from Hotline led to a full version of the article. Atlantic has asked me not to use that link - the new link instead goes to a truncated version (full version for subscribers only). I know that sort of thing is frustrating, and consequently I very rarely link to articles that are behind subscription firewalls. I wouldn't have done so in this case had I realized the problem. My apologies.
Posted at 03:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Band of Brothers | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-05: Johnson Sucking Up to Roy Blunt, aka Tom DeLay, Jr.
Posted by DavidNYCMan, these "moderate" House Republicans just really dog my cats. Down in DC, they reliably support troglodytes like Tom DeLay, casting vote after vote in support of an extremist right-wing agenda. Every so often, though, the wily GOP leadership lets these so-called moderates appear to "buck" the majority and cast alleged votes of conscience on potentially controversial bills. These moderates then return to their home districts, brandishing their few acts of calculated defiance as proof of their moderation and maverickhood. Aided and abetted by the laziest media the world has ever known, they pull of this ruse time after time.
Of course, it's all bullshit. And we need to call bullshit on those phonies, as loudly as we possibly can. Fortunately, several of these moderate muddlers just made our job a whole lot easier today, the most glaring of whom is Rep. Nancy Johnson (CT-05). She's announced her early support for Roy Blunt to replace Tom DeLay as the Republican's majority leader. If Blunt takes over for DeLay, it wouldn't be a succession so much as it would be a direct cloning process.
You see, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has named Roy Blunt one of the thirteen most-corrupt members of Congress, at their appropriately-named site "Beyond DeLay." The rap sheet on Blunt is longer than an elephant's trunk. He's done all the usual things, like take money from DeLay and Abramoff.
But he's also taken a trip to Korea paid for by a registered foreign agent (that's against House rules); wrote a letter on gambling favorable to an Abramoff client after taking money from Abramoff (that would be against the law); and tried to insert a stealth amendment benefitting tobacco giant Philip Morris into a Homeland Security bill (that's just plain scummy). The Philip Morris stuff is actually very interesting, because his son Andrew lobbies for Philip Morris; his wife Abigail also lobbies for Philip Morris; his other son Matt (governor of Missouri) has received tons of questionable Philip Morris cash; and - wait for it - Blunt's biggest campaign contributor is Philip Morris. See a pattern here?
I should also add that Blunt voted with DeLay 95% of the time. If there ever was a case of new boss, same as the old boss, this is surely it. I'm gonna call it the "Getting Fooled Again" syndrome. And Nancy Johnson has fallen for it like the sucker - and right-winger - she truly is. According to Hotline, here are some other notable "moderates" who are right there with here:
• Ginny Brown-Waite (FL)
• Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
• Mike Ferguson (NJ)
• Mark Foley (FL)
• Chris Shays (CT)
Johnson's opponent, Chris Murphy, is already making hay of this (at least via e-mail). I hope those challenging these other "moderates" are also covering this one, especially Chris Shays opponent Diane Farrell.
P.S. Chris Murphy now has an update on his campaign blog.
Posted at 02:12 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCWith the New Year upon us, new announcements and developments should be picking up pace. Kentucky's filing deadline is Jan. 31, so we'll know by then (if not sooner) if Ken Lucas is going to run again, and whether anyone else will jump into the KY-03 race. What's going on in your corner of the political world?
Posted at 06:17 PM in Open Threads | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, January 07, 2006
Beantown
Posted by DavidNYCI'm up in Boston for a few days visiting friends, so posting will be slow. I've been here a few times before but have never really done the touristy things. Any suggestions on things one should do or see?
Posted at 10:41 AM in Site News | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Kuff on the Texas House Races
Posted by DavidNYCThis is why I love the blogosphere. Charles Kuffner's comment on the Texas House races is worthy of its own post:
1. Sklar is going against Ron Paul in CD14. Paul ran unopposed in 2004 in a fairly new-to-him district, and he's nobody's idea of a moneybags - last I checked he had something like $150K on hand. Sklar is a farmer, something that the Texas Congressional delegation now lacks without Charlie Stenholm and Larry Combest, so he ought to get some support from ag interests. He's already got the Texas Farm Bureau endorsement.2. Lamar Smith ran against a no-name perennial candidate (Rhett Smith, who is now on the GOP (!) primary ballot for Governor; he also ran for San Antonio Mayor last year) and barely achieved parity with the district's GOP index. He carried Travis County (Austin) by a 50-46 spread (there was another candidate in the race as well), and it's about 40% of the district. If Courage can win Travis and hold his losses in Bexar County, he can win.
3. Former right-wing wackjob Congressman Steve Stockman, who ousted 40-year veteran Jack Brooks in 1994 before being dumped by Nick Lampson in 1996, has entered the CD22 race as an independent. He may provide an attractive alternative for some wingnut voters. Hard to say, since he's been mostly below radar since 1998, and because he's such a freaking nut that predicting what he'll do is a fool's errand, but it's a favorable development for Lampson.
4. Finally, Bush's support in any district is a slight overstatement of GOP strength there, as he generally outperformed all other Republican candidates. The performance of the three other statewide Republicans (Victor Carillo, who won Railroad Commissioner 55.5-41-3.5 against a D and a Lib; Scott Brister, who won a State Supreme Court seat against David Van Os by a 59-41 margin; and Mike Keasler, who won a spot on the Court of Criminal Appeals 58-42) is IMHO a better measure of Republicanness in a district.
You can keep track of all Texas races at Texas Tuesdays. If you have an interest in any race, we welcome your input - it's a CivicSpace blog, so create an ID and join in. Thanks!`
You can also visit Charles at his own blog, Off the Kuff.
Posted at 10:24 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, January 05, 2006
PA-Sen: Santorum to Head GOP Ethics Batallion? Don't Make Me Laugh
Posted by DavidNYCSo Bill Frist has tapped Dick Santorum to, as CREW puts it, "head the ethics charge in the Senate" on behalf of the GOP. Of course, this is the ultimate joke, given Santorum's disgraceful ethics record:
• Sen. Santorum runs the K Street project, created by conservative activist Grover Norquist and former Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX), in which he ensures that all top lobbying and trade association jobs are filled by Republicans.• Two days before Sen. Santorum introduced a bill that would benefit private national weather companies at the expense of the National Weather Service, the Senator's political action committee, America's Foundation, received a $2,000 donation from the chief executive officer of AccuWeather, Inc., a leading weather data provider located in State College, PA.
• Working to undermine public confidence in the National Weather Service, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina Sen. Santorum stated in an interview with a local Philadelphia radio station that the National Weather Service failed to predict the storm's fury and that its warnings were "not sufficient." In fact, the early warnings about Hurricane Katrina issued by the National Weather Service were praised for their accuracy by news organizations such as Associated Press, NBC News and The New York Times.
• Since the 2001-2002 school year, at least three of Sen. Santorum's children have attended a Pennsylvania cyber charter school in Penn Hills, PA, costing local taxpayers about $67,000, despite the fact that the Senator and his family spend most of the year in Virginia.
It's actually number three (in concert with number two) which really gets me steamed. These guys are so removed from the reality-based community that they'll spew outright lies just to benefit lobbyists and screw taxpayers. Yes, our tax money pays for the National Weather Service, but Santorum's bill would prevent the NWS from releasing its information to the public! Imagine how much worse Katrina would have been without the rock-solid NWS.
Fact is, though, Frist only has some 50-odd guys and gals to pick from, and each one is lousier than the next when it comes to governmental ethics. If Frist is saying that Dick Santorum is the best he can do, that is saying a hell of a lot about the modern GOP. And anything which increases Santorum's profile on ethics only drives a few more nails into his already tightly-sealed political coffin.
Posted at 03:06 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Sen: Allen Takes a Page from the Burns Playbook
Posted by DavidNYCGeorge Allen then:
In 2000, Sen. George Allen hammered Chuck Robb for accepting campaign contributions in 1994 from a controversial donor tied to Bill Clinton and Al Gore. His campaign manager even chided Robb for not pushing for a federal prosecutor to look into the issue: "It's obvious to us why Chuck Robb won't get involved," said LaCivita. "He's just as guilty as Al Gore." ["Robb Trumpets His Role in Fighting Drugs, Crime," Richmond Times-Dispatch, June 24, 2000.]
George Allen now:
When asked about the $3,000 the senator received from Abramoff and friends, Allen’s spokesman told the Virginian-Pilot yesterday that, "[Allen] will neither refund nor donate to charity a $1,000 gift received from Abramoff during Allen’s 2000 Senate campaign. The money was spent long ago and the campaign account closed, said David Snepp, Allen’s press secretary, so 'the money does not exist to give it back.'"
Of course, the last time a Republican Senator started claiming that he couldn't pay back Abramoff money, he changed his tune in just a matter of days. And in Conrad Burns' case, we were talking about $150 large. George Allen can certainly cough up a meager $1,000, so I'd expect an embarrassing flip-flop sometime soon.
P.S. This whole "the money's been spent" notion seems to be just another part of the Republican War on Analogy. In other words, according to the GOP, if you don't literally have the exact same dollars you were once given, you can't return money. Of course, that's the same as someone saying he can't pay his taxes this year because he's already spent his whole salary.
(Hat tip to the DSCC.)
Posted at 01:26 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Texas House Races
Posted by DavidNYCWith the field set in Texas, Charles Kuffner (who pens the excellent Off the Kuff, which has been around practically since the birth of the blogosphere) e-mails me to tell me which House races he thinks are going to be among the most interesting:
• TX-14: Shane Sklar vs. incumbent Ron Paul (Bush-Kerry: 67-33)
• TX-21: John Courage vs. incumbent Lamar Smith (Bush-Kerry: 61-39)
• TX-22: Nick Lampson vs. incumbent Tom DeLay (Bush-Kerry: 64-36)
As Kuff notes - and as the 2004 presidential margins make clear - these will all be tremendously difficult races, and winning even one would be terrific. I'll also add that even in big landslide years like 1994, you're lucky to see even 10% of incumbents lose (it's always much easier to win open seats). But to even have a chance, you've got to compete, and that's exactly what the Texas Dems are doing. Kuff also thinks we've got great candidates in several other races, and you never know where surprises can happen.
Speaking of which, on the state level in Texas, we are seriously kicking ass. Almost three times as many Republican incumbents are facing challengers as Dems. This just goes to show that you should never, ever write off a particular state just because it looks hopeless on the presidential level. Politics goes way beyond the race for the White House. Dean's fifty-state strategy looks like it's already paying dividends.
Lastly, Kuff points us to a new single-district blog: Tom DeLay vs. The World. The name alone is a great frame, and I look forward to reading the blog.
Posted at 12:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
VA-Sen: Harris Miller (D) in Against Allen
Posted by DavidNYCAs mentioned yesterday, via Raising Kaine. From WTOP:
The year is only three days old, but already the political season is heating up in Virginia. WTOP Radio has learned Harris Miller will challenge Republican incumbent George Allen in November.Miller, an activist in Fairfax County, will formally announce his candidacy next week. He describes himself as "a shorter, and poorer version of [Governor] Mark Warner."
The 54-year-old McLean resident is currently the President of the Information Technology Association of America. He wants to see more done by the Federal government.
I'm sure Mark Warner really appreciates the mention of his wealth (a topic, like George Bush and his Connecticut roots, he assiduously avoids). Miller apparently does have money, though, and his biggest virtue appears to be his willingness to self-fund. Anyhow, I wish Miller the best, though I'd still like to see Webb jump into the race.
Posted at 10:43 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
WV-02: Up Next
Posted by DavidNYCHere are the next batch of filing deadlines:
WEST VIRGINIA - January 28
KENTUCKY - January 31
NEW MEXICO - February 14
OHIO - February 16
INDIANA - February 17
NORTH CAROLINA - February 28
In West Virginia, despite the fact that Bush won in double digits, most of the top elected officials are Dems: both Senators, the Governor, and two of three Representatives. The lone GOP sore thumb is Shelley Moore Capito, who had enough sense not to take on WV super-legend Robert Byrd in a senate race - but is still facing a tough challenge in her own second congressional district from Democrat Mike Callaghan.
Capito is a Tom DeLay clone - she's voted with him 93% of the time recently. Hardly a surprise given that she's taken $48,500 from DeLay's corrupt-to-the-bone ARMPAC - more than any other member of Congress. Capito's not returning that tainted cash, but she was forced to disgorge $6,000 she snarffed up from ex-Rep. and current felon Duke Cunningham (R-San Quentin). (The company you keep, ay?)
She also likes to play the dirty game of wasting taxpayers' money on "newsletters" to constituents (over $80,000 in 2005 alone). Her fellow WV reps, Nick Rahall and Alan Mollohan (both Dems) haven't spent a penny on that kind of crap. Like Howard Dean says, you can't trust Republicans with money. While perhaps a small sin in the overall scheme of things, the abuse of franking privileges is precisely the sort of activity which is a hallmark of entrenched corruption. And I love this justification from a Capito spokesbot:
"The congresswoman would rather exhaust resources available to members of Congress informing West Virginians rather than leaving them in the dark."
The comebacker to this one is, "Does Shelley Moore Capito think her constituents aren't capable of watching TV news, reading a newspaper, or using the Internet?" Combine that with the always-potent "wasting taxpayers' money" charge and you can paint Capito as badly out-of-touch with her district. Like I say, franking isn't a huge big deal - but just remember how much mileage Newt Gingrich got out of a few bounced checks.
As I say, Callaghan is a strong challenger. He was head of the WV Dem Party and previously ran the state's environmental protection agency. I also wonder if Capito will once again get the endorsement of the United Mine Workers, despite her past efforts on behalf of miners, given her coziness with the anti-safety Bush White House. If you're interested in getting involved with Callaghan's campaign, click here.
Posted at 05:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, West Virginia | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
ME House: Legislator Leaves Dems
Posted by DavidNYCSo a state legislator in Maine has bolted the Democratic Party. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be news except for the fact that this now leaves the Maine House in a tie between Republicans and Democrats. (The upper house is held by the Dems, as is the statehouse.) Maine reps are up for re-election this fall. Mainers: Can this setback be reversed? Or is it a worrisome sign for the future? (This is the third Dem to become an independent in the past year.)
Posted at 05:22 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Maine | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
TX: 31 of 32
Posted by DavidNYCImpressive! As of today's filing deadline, Texas Dems have managed to field candidates in 31 of 32 House races this year. (That's 20 out of 21 GOP-held seats, the lone exception being TX-11, which is the most Republican district in the nation.) In 2004 - a much bigger election year, what with the presidential race and all - four seats went uncontested. Hats are off to quite a few intrepid challengers, who are running in districts that Bush won with over 70% of the vote. But like I say, we've got to expand the playing field. Every weekend a Republican incumbent has to spend in his home district is a weekend he could have been out fundraising for a colleague.
Kuff's got more details. And hopefully the DCCC page will get updated soon.
Posted at 06:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
VA-Sen: Draft James Webb
Posted by DavidNYCRight now, there are no Dem candidates running against Republican George Allen in this year's VA senate race. Even if Mark Warner were to run (and he won't), it would be a seriously uphill battle - which explains our recruitment difficulties. But there's one possible name in the mix who I'm holding out hope for: former Secretary of the Navy James Webb. And since you're nobody until somebody tries to draft you, the obligatory Draft James Webb website has sprung into existence.
As you may know, Webb was Navy Secretary under Reagan. Switching from working in a Republican administration to running as a Democratic senate candidate is a compelling storyline. It's something the media might latch on to. As much as we hate him, Zell Miller got a lot of play in 2004 because he switched sides. I also think Webb's background would play well in Virginia, with its numerous military bases (plus the Pentagon) - he's a decorated veteran and the first Annapolis grad to become SecNavy. He's also been a cogent critic of the war in Iraq.
An early poll by Rasmussen puts Allen way ahead. Raising Kaine thinks that lobbyist Harris Miller will jump into the race, but his name was not among those polled by Rasmussen. Like I say, I have no illusions about how tough this race would be. But I think Webb's willingness to speak his mind and buck his original party roots could make this one interesting.
Posted at 01:48 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Virginia | Comments (6) | TrackBack (1) | Technorati