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Wednesday, January 18, 2006

CT-Sen: Is Lieberman Beatable?

Posted by DavidNYC

Let me start by saying I am not trying to debate the issue of whether Joe Lieberman should be challenged by a Dem or an independent. Rather, I'd like to discuss the mechanics of such a challenge - what it would look like, and whether it might succeed.

To that end, I don't think former Gov. Lowell Weicker can beat Lieberman as an independent. Quinnipiac recently released a poll showing Lieberman beating Weicker in a direct head-to-head (with no Republican) by 65-21. I doubt that Weicker could overcome such a huge gap, especially since his favorability rating is negative - he garners only 19% positive and 32% negative. Pretty harsh.

However, I think a primary challenge could succeed. Lieberman gets pretty good job approval from Dems (55-29), while Republican approval of him is a good bit higher (68-20). And his favorability rating among Dems is good as well (50-15). But those numbers only tell part of the story.

By a 52-39 margin, Dems say Lieberman should once again be the senatorial nominee. That's not exactly terrific. But it gets even more interesting. Self-identified liberals - who strike me as being more representative of primary voters than just self-identified Dems - are tied on the question. Forty-seven percent say Lieberman should be re-nominated; forty-seven percent say "someone else."

This is the pivot-point for Ned Lamont. He would only need to move that 47% number just a wee bit in order to dethrone Lieberman. For Lieberman to avoid that fate, he'd either have to tone down his attacks on fellow Democrats or try to put daylight between himself and Bush on the Iraq war issue. It's not clear to me that he could do that successfully, given how stubbornly he's refused to change his ways over the past five years. In other words, I think Lamont would have a chance.

Posted at 02:14 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Technorati

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» More on Lieberman’s Race from The Daily Background
I announced several days ago that we would be following Lieberman’s race in the upcoming year fairly closely, and here’s some more on him, via Kos: By a 52-39 margin, Dems say Lieberman should once again be the senatorial nominee. That&#... [Read More]

Tracked on January 18, 2006 03:47 PM

Comments

BUT JOE HAS JOEMENTUM!!

Posted by: Samson at January 18, 2006 04:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Two points: Those 47-47 numbers are in a vacuum, ie, it doesn't poll specifics other than Lieberman. I wouldn't want to rely on those numbers, or the 55-29. If you want good data, we need an actual name beside Joe's in the question.

and the second is less a point than a question: Are primary voters really more liberal than self-ID Dems? I'd guess they aren't actually, but I don't have any numbers on hand to sayone way or another,.

Posted by: Craig McLaughlin at January 18, 2006 05:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Craig: Do you mean the 52-39 number? The 55-29 # is just ordinary job approval.

Posted by: DavidNYC at January 18, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DavidNYC,

Please go here http://fox61.trb.com/news/wtic-news-videogallery,0,4709483.videogallery?coll=wtic-home-1&home1
and click on thre Jan 9 lieberman video.

If guys in there late 70s who've been town committee members for over 40 yrs in very concervative Manchester,Ct. are promising to not vote for Lieberman what are his chances?

Posted by: ctkeith at January 18, 2006 06:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment