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Friday, January 20, 2006

HI-Sen: Rep. Case to Challenge Sen. Akaka in Primary

Posted by DavidNYC

In some very unusual news, Democratic Rep. Ed Case (HI-02) has announced that he'll challenge incumbent Sen. Daniel Akaka in a primary. While I don't know nearly as much about Hawaiian politics as I do about New York's, this move strikes me as a pointless Tom Suozzi gesture. Akaka is one of the most popular senators around, and HI's even-more-beloved Sen. Daniel Inouye is rallying around him, as is the rest of the Dem establishment:

Inouye and Abercrombie both said they would stand behind Akaka, which could isolate Case within the party.

"I intend to continue to give Senator Akaka my support," Inouye said in a statement. "I hope Congressman Case will reconsider his decision to challenge Senator Akaka, and will instead seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives. Also, I have been advised that Senator Akaka has the full support of the leadership of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee."

I think Case has literally zero chance of knocking off Akaka. In the past two-and-a-half decades, only three incumbent senators have lost primaries, and all were under freakish circumstances. And unlike Toomey-Specter, Akaka-Case hardly presents the kind of ideological and stylistic rifts that could even give Case the slightest toehold.

Moreover, Akaka's won his last two elections with over 70% of the vote. (In a primary challenge in 2000, he came away with 91%.) If Case hopes to hang his hat on the issue of Akaka's age, good luck. Akaka's no addled Jacob Javits - and do you think he even looks close to his age? Man, I hope I look that good when I'm an octogenarian!

Inouye is counselling patience, but I doubt Case will listen any more than Suozzi did. As I did with Suozzi, I predict this futile run will really damage Case's future in Hawaiian politics.

As far as Case's seat goes, I think Dems should be able to hold it. The district (probably the slightly more Democratic of Hawaii's two seats) went for Kerry by 56-44, and Case won his last election by over 30%. Simply because it's an open seat, it'll be more competitive than it would otherwise be, but I'm pretty confident. (And I'm not really sure the HI GOP has all that much of a bench.) One friend who is knowledgeable about the HI political scene tells me he wants to see State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa take the seat. (She came in third in a special election in HI-02 in 2003.) Who do you like to replace Case?

Posted at 12:49 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Technorati

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Comments

General Shinseki (sp?) - that being said, I have no clue which district he even lives in.

Posted by: thekickingdonkey at January 20, 2006 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Interesting thought. I don't know if Shinseki is a Dem (despite his falling out with Bushco), and I'm not sure where he lives now. But his hometown of Lihue is indeed in HI-02.

Posted by: DavidNYC at January 20, 2006 02:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is big! not sure what to make of it right now but right now i think i would vote for Case if i was in HI because he voted no to ANWR drilling.

Posted by: D in FL. at January 20, 2006 04:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Case also voted for the Republican immigration bill.

Posted by: DavidNYC at January 20, 2006 04:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Case has always been a maverick Democrat, even when he was in the state House. He did come pretty close to securing the Dem nomination for Governor in 2002, and I personally think had he won, HE would be running for re-election this year instead of Linda Lingle. That would have been a good race...moderate vs. moderate.

Of course, replacing Patsy Mink in the U.S. House was a fortuitous Plan B for him...he has always eyed higher office, which is why I wonder why he didn't decide to run for governor again.

Posted by: Keith at January 20, 2006 06:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Keith: Considering how desperate the Dems are for a good candidate to run against Lingle, it seems awfully selfish of Case to primary Akaka. Not only that, I think his chances of beating Lingle are way better.

Posted by: DavidNYC at January 20, 2006 07:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Despite Democrats' difficulty in coming up with a candidate to challenge incumbent Republican governor Linda Lingle, this race will attract a lot of interest, and it shouldn't be too hard to keep in Democrat hands.

This could be good news for progressive Dems, actually, because Case is a "moderate" Blue-Dog Dem not strong on party loyalty and who isn't all that popular among progressives in Hawaii. Akaka is reliably liberal/progressive on just about everything except arctic drilling. I think the most likely scenario is that Case loses the primary to Akaka, and someone more progressive than Case will end up taking his seat. Both of the candidates who have announced their intention to run already, State Senator Colleen Hanabusa and State Rep Gary Hooser, would likely represent a more progressive position than Case in the House, as would Rep. Brian Schatz, who has also expressed interest.

Posted by: scottmaui at January 20, 2006 07:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From a quick check of the Hawaii House, it appears that there's a wide variety of young legislators (legislators under 50). I'd imagine there's some pretty excellent leaders waiting for their opportunity.

Posted by: RBH at January 20, 2006 09:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Doug White at Poinography.com has a good roundup of local coverage on this race and its implications for Hawaii politics.

(I highly recommend his blog for Hawaii politics in general.)

Posted by: scottmaui at January 21, 2006 12:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rep. Case isn't that bad. While he is more moderate than your average Hawaii Democrat he is still strong on our side.

Voted N to drilling in ANWR
Voted N to Approveing the Bush tax cuts
Voted N to the Medicare/RX bill
Voted N to to the Partial-Birth Abortion ban
Voted N to the Ban on same sex-Marriage
Voted N on restricting gun Liability.

Posted by: D in FL. at January 21, 2006 01:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jonathan Singer has a post at MyDD on this primary challenge.

(Small correction to my earlier comment: Gary Hooser is a state senator, not a representative.)

Posted by: scottmaui at January 21, 2006 03:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment