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Thursday, January 19, 2006

PA-Gov: Swann Surges Against Rendell

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from Rasmussen on PA-Gov (likely voters, Nov. in parens):

Rendell: 45 (50)
Swann: 43 (36)

Rendell: 46 (47)
Scranton: 36 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Ed Rendell is the incumbent Democratic Governor. The Republicans are Lynn Swann, a former star received for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Bill Scranton, a former Lt. Gov. Swann just formally announced his candidacy a couple of weeks ago and may be benefitting from the media coverage. The stability of the Rendell-Scranton numbers suggests, at least, that Rendell is not to blame for Swann's surge.

Here's my question to Pennsylvanians: Rendell is the consummate pol's pol and strikes me as unlikely to make too many obvious mistakes. But does Swann have what it takes to be as slick on the campaign trail as he was on the gridiron? Or is he coasting on star power and name rec now, only to get taken down once things heat up?

Posted at 11:19 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Pennsylvania | Technorati

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Comments

While there has been some whispering that Rendell may have a closer-than-expected reelection due to the PA pay raise flap, I'm not concerned about his race for now. I think that Swann picked up in the polls by officially throwing his hat in, but I can't see that lasting. I think the fact that Rendell and Casey will be on the ballot together will be helpful to them both.

Posted by: Rob at January 20, 2006 12:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This strikes me as love for Lynn Swann the football player, not love for Lynn Swann the politician. He still has a campaign to run.

Remember, Jon Corzine had run a statewide campaign and been Senator for four plus years when he ran for Governor and was the most popular politician in New Jersey. After he was running hard, his favorables plummetted.

Swann has no political history and all anyone knows is he was a hell of a player.

Posted by: njdem at January 20, 2006 03:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hopefully Rendell will go the Blago/Paul Martin route and link any Republican/conservative to the Bush administration.

I also don't think Rendell will get too much flak for the pay raise scandal. The public is really only after the legislature on that one.

And not that I want to win because of it, but unfortunately, a lot of Pennsylvanians will not vote for Swann because he is black. Sad but true.

Posted by: nada at January 20, 2006 08:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My Dad is an Eisenhower Republican who has no plans to vote for Lynn Swann. I will also reiterate what nada said, sad but true - central PA will not vote for a black man. So, what we will have is a loss of minority votes going to Swann instead, and a weak turnout in the country where they don't want to vote for Swann and think Santorum is sleezy.
If we get the minority vote to split their ticket for Swann and Casey, then maybe we win the Senate and lose the Governorship? Or, maybe not, maybe the country turnout is so low that we win both offices.

Posted by: chuckles at January 20, 2006 09:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nada, I don't think the pay raise will affect Rendell that much, either, but he did sign it into law and some of these voters are a little irrational about the whole thing. It was enough to take down one of our state supreme court justices (first time a judge in the state ever lost a retention vote) even though he really had even less to do with the whole thing than Rendell. It was repealed, though, so maybe it won't affect things this year at all. Even if Rendell ends up losing some votes from it, I don't think that's enough for Swann or Scranton to win. Also, I believe Rendell has an enormous cash advantage over either of them.

Posted by: Rob at January 20, 2006 09:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As soon as the Steelers lose in the playoffs Swans number will back down to reality

Posted by: phastphil at January 20, 2006 09:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

it seems Swann is a major tactical error.
what part of Pennsylvania is heavily african-american? (philadelphia are)
who do those fans root for? (the Eagles)
how do Eagles fans feel about Steelers? not warmly.

the point is that a black steeler is a poor tactical choice for picking up philadelphia where Rendel runs strong. A former Eagle would have been a better pick, and picking an African-American will help Rendel in the central part of the state. Western PA is mostly Steeler country and may still go Swann.

Posted by: MrT at January 20, 2006 10:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Swann still has to get past Bill Scranton in the primaries. The Scranton family has a lot of money and a political history in the state, to say nothing of their friends that are big time GOP fundraisers. Expect a bruising Republican primary that will help Rendell in the general election.

Posted by: BCarr at January 20, 2006 11:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MrT:

If they think Swann helps them in Philadelphia, they're bigger idiots than I suspect.

What Ireally think they're trying to do is win Allegheny county, which the Democrat usually wins in a walk. Of course, this is going to be undercut by the losses Swann will take in rurual white counties, but it was a good idea in theory.

Posted by: Craig McLaughlin at January 20, 2006 12:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

These numbers do not reflect a serious problem for Rendell. Swann is experiencing a bounce do to his initial entry into the race. The red state “values” that exist in PA in the strange land between Philly and Pitt will not be friendly to Swann, and some of the republican base will drift to Rendell. Rendell’s base however should be locked up because he is enormously popular in Philly and its suburbs, where his approval ratings are much higher than the rest of the state.

Posted by: Buckscountydem at January 20, 2006 12:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bush factor:
The people in my hometown (Clearfield County) are sick and tired of Bush and all his bushshit. Add in Lynn Swann and they are likely to vote straight-ticket Democrat or not at all - which would be fine as well. Also, they HATE Rick Santorum, I mean they really HATE him, they think he's a sleazeball.

Posted by: chuckles at January 20, 2006 01:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

how do Eagles fans feel about Steelers? not warmly.

LOL. I love the understatement.

Posted by: DavidNYC at January 20, 2006 01:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

how do Eagles fans feel about Steelers? not warmly.

LOL. I love the understatement.

That's funny, because we Steeler fans never even THINK about the Eagles. It must be the lack of Super Bowls on you part. : )

Posted by: chuckles at January 20, 2006 03:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment