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Sunday, January 08, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

With the New Year upon us, new announcements and developments should be picking up pace. Kentucky's filing deadline is Jan. 31, so we'll know by then (if not sooner) if Ken Lucas is going to run again, and whether anyone else will jump into the KY-03 race. What's going on in your corner of the political world?

Posted at 06:17 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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The buzz that Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman could be entering the Nevada Senate race has renewed my interest in that race. I read that Goodman is very popular and received more than 80% of the vote the last time he ran. I have it on good authority that if Goodman bows in, this race will instantly graduate to "toss-up" category. If Goodman opts not to run, Jack Carter will be a decent candidate, but I have serious doubts about his ability to win.

This race takes on particular importance because the Democrats currently have five excellent pick-up opportunities in the Senate in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Unfortunately, they need six to win, and I'm skeptical about our chances in Arizona, Tennessee and Mississippi. Nevada could prove to be the elusive sixth seat because John Ensign is by no means a shoo-in based on his lukewarm approval ratings. The Dems need to keep the fire on Goodman and hope he steps up to the plate.

Posted by: Mark at January 8, 2006 07:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Carter is a great candidate but Goodman would have at least a 50-50 chance of winning. If it is Goodman, we should get Carter to run for Governor or Congress.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at January 8, 2006 08:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why is everyone so down in TN. Ford is leading the money race and either ahead of neck and neck with all his rivals in the polls. The GOP is going to have a very divisive primary that could go negative and help out Ford.

Posted by: jkfp2004 at January 8, 2006 08:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

jkfp, here are the reasons why I'm less-than-optimistic about Ford's chances in Tennessee:

1. He's an African-American....a fact that most TN voters probably don't realize since his name recognition in early polls has been below 50%. There has been exactly one African-American elected statewide in the South since Reconstruction (Douglas Wilder of Virginia). Hopefully, Tennesseeans will surprise me, but given the racist upbringing of my born-and-raised-in-West Tennessee girlfriend (a Democrat from ocean-blue Benton County), I'm worried that stealth racism will knock off a good chunk of Ford's voters.

2. Ford is from Memphis, which is looked down up by the rest of the state. It also denies Ford an electoral foothold into TN's swing areas. Memphis is the only part of Tennessee assured of going Democrat, meaning Ford will have to fight tooth-and-nail in the other 94 counties (which wouldn't be the case if red-district Democrats Lincoln Davis or Bart Gordon were running).

3. Half of Ford's family is currently under indictment. Not exactly the kind of press a candidate likes when trying to brand "the other guys" as mired in a culture of corruption.

4. Ford comes across as a nice guy on the surface, but is often arrogant and childish when put on the spot (think charging down the aisles of Congress in a rage at Jean Schmidt over her comments about John Murtha). Ford's prickliness needs to be tempered in "laid-back Tennessee." A high-profile outburst on the campaign trail would kill his candidacy.

5. Ford's calculated "centrism" is bass-ackwards when it comes to the formula for victory in Tennessee. He's economically conservative but socially liberal. Democrats most likely to win in Tennessee are anti-abortion and anti-trade agreements. Ford's on the opposite side of Tennessee voters on both issues.

6. Ford faces three challengers with their own built-in advantages. My source tells me that Ed Bryant is probably the GOP frontrunner. Geographically, Ford stands to lose the fewest votes from a Bryant candidacy since his former Congressional district is centered around wealthy suburbs of Memphis (Germantown) and Nashville (Brentwood) that would never vote for any Democrat. But on the other hand, I'm told that Bryant is the most conservative and the most charismatic of the three GOP challengers.

Van Hilleary is considered perhaps the weakest challenger because of his 2002 gubernatorial debate, but his former Congressional district is the extremely rural region of south-central Tennessee where there are thousands of Yellow Dog Democrats that Ford desperately needs to win statewide. If Hilleary's the candidate, he gets the advantage in TN-04, which probably kills Ford's ability to win the race.

Bob Corker may be Ford's best challenger strategically because he's the least conservative of the three, and would probably compel some arch-conservatives (of which Tennessee has many) to stay home. On the other hand, Corker has the most money and could likely self-finance Ford's campaign into the ground with TV ads. Furthermore, Corker is the mayor of Chattanooga, which would probably mean his candidacy would consolidate GOP strength in vote-rich East Tennessee to the point where even a strong performance by Ford in Western and Central Tennessee couldn't overcome Corker's ET advantage (this scenario pretty much played out in the 2000 Presidential campaign where Gore got beat because of ET).

Ford's looking good this early in the race, but then, so did Erskine Bowles at this point two years ago. I try to remain optimistic here, but common sense tells me that Ford needs to pitch the political equivalent of a perfect game to win this race....and I don't think he's capable of it.

Posted by: Mark at January 8, 2006 08:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On TN i would'nt call Ford a Liberal on Social issues he voted for the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban and the ban on same-sex unions. I can't stand him myself i hope he gets replaced by someone who will reflect the views of the 70-30 Kerry distrct.
Also on TN when is the State Senate up for Reelection (if we can capture one more seat we have control of local Govt.) And on Nevada let's all hope Goodman gets in.

Posted by: D in FL. at January 8, 2006 09:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Virginia Democrats just got a candidate for the Senate but Im not sure he's the guy we want. Harris Miller - a DC insider with not a lot going for him. Lobbied for Diebold and was a huge proponent of offshoring jobs. And these are supposed to be his strong points!? James Webb could wipe the floor with Allen but he has yet to declare his candidacy. Honestly, Id rather see NO ONE race than have Miller speak for the Democratic party. This guy is probusiness to the extreme...

I dont understand why this race cant get any traction. With a decent candidate like Webb we have a SERIOUS chance to knock off Allen. We need 6 seats to take back the Senate and I can think of no one more deserving of a swift kick in the ass than George "look-at-me-Im-a-cowboy" Allen

Posted by: AlecBGreen at January 8, 2006 09:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I haven't posted about it yet on my blog, but I just got back from a very exciting meeting put on by Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. They are trying to determine whether to take on Pombo in CA-11 or not, and things look good. They said they expected one or two dozen people to show up on a Sunday afternoon. Instead 80 activists packed the room the meeting was held in and even spilled out into the hallway. I've very, very encouraged by the meeting and by the other groups I know are interested on working to oust Pombo. I'll write more about it on my blog tomorrow (Monday).

Posted by: Matt Lockshin at January 8, 2006 11:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A curious recent find. In light of the recent Abramoff fun, Rep. Fossella's (NY-13) campaign is running as far away from him as possible, due to an RNCC posting on their site that Abramoff and Tony Rudy would join Fossella for a fundraiser in 2002 [Staten Island Advance]. Yet there has been no denial (on multiple occassions) of knowing Tony Rudy, who might be the next focus of indictment/plea bargin in the Abramoff case. Maybe this will force a Dem into jumping into the race.

ny13.blogspot.com

Posted by: jonahinnyc at January 9, 2006 01:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey Mark, not from tennessee so don't know much about the race, but how much exactly is half of ford's family (that is under indictment) and for what?

Posted by: Ferris at January 9, 2006 01:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Half is an exaggeration--I think it's just his uncle, John, a state legislator who was caught accepting bribes. Not good stuff, but I think it's just him. However, I'm pretty sure that his dad was indicted at least once under corruption charges but never convicted. Sr. was a very confrontational congressman which drew the ire of the white TN community. Jr.'s style has been less confrontational to avoid alienating statewide TN voters.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at January 9, 2006 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I had recently read about four members of Ford's family being indicted, but couldn't find specific reference to any of them beyond his uncle John and the corruption charge his father was acquitted over. Sorry for the exaggeration. Nonetheless, even one high-profile corruption indictment in a candidates's prominent political family doesn't speak well in a year when corruption scandals are gonna loom large.

Posted by: Mark at January 9, 2006 03:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I consider it astonishing that the blogosphere has been ignoring the Illinois Governor's race for quite some time now.

Unfortunately, it looks like Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich will be our most vulnerable incumbent in the 2006 election cycle. Him and State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka are locked in a very tight race.

The main reason this is very important is Illinois is losing population, thus it will lose a congressional seat when the next census comes. If Topinka ousts Blagojevich in 2006, she will be largely favored for re-election in 2010, and will likely control redistricting with the legislature--and Democrats will probably lose yet another seat due to redistricting.

If Blagojevich wins on the other hand, IL-Gov 2010 becomes an open seat race, thus favoring the Democratic candidate in the blue state.

--

A side note...
A good talking point is that no Dem incumbent Senator is vulnerable in 2006. Cantwell and Stabenow are leading their opponents by double digits, and the Nelsons are looking very safe. Sure there are some that we need to keep atleast part of our eye on (Cantwell, Stabenow, Nelsons--MN,NJ open seats specifically)....I think it is remarkable though how well our incumbents are doing.

Same with the House, very few incumbent problems. Marshall & Barrow GA, Melancon of LA, Bean of IL, and Edwards of TX are the only vulnerable incumbents that I can think of on the Dem side off the top of my head. Out of 202, that's pretty damn good!

As for Governor's races, we are in good shape. I think we are poised to hold the states of Massachusetts and New York for the first time in over a decade. Blagojevich seems to be our only vulnerable incumbent. That's why we need to make sure he is re-elected.

Thanks for reading.....Have a lovely evening.

Posted by: Kyle Raccio at January 9, 2006 08:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kyle, no Democrat is ever safe in Nebraska. Even a token opponent could end up giving Ben Nelson a run for his money. And lest we forget thatn 10 months is an eternity for an 87-year-old. Robert Byrd dodged a bullet when Shelley Moore Capito decided not to challenge him, but any sign of a physical or mental lapse on Byrd's part will be the drop of blood the GOP needs to send its sharks out.

Speaking of health concerns, another vulnerable Democrat is Leonard Boswell of Iowa. His health has been bad for some time now. If he doesn't recover in the next couple of months, an already vulnerable seat could become that much more vulnerable. Here's hoping for a healthy 2006 for Lenny and Robby.

Posted by: Mark at January 9, 2006 09:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-05. Virgil "funded by MZM and Abramoff" Goode is up for re-election. The thing that interests me is that if Al Weed wins the primary, Weed vs. Goode will be the same exact race as in 2004.

It will be a direct indicator of what has really changed in the past two years. Heavy Republican district, but Weed's a good man and he'll fight the good fight.

Posted by: mikesnoo at January 10, 2006 04:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Wisco!

Gov. Jim Doyle is doing alright, but the republicans in the state have been pulling out decently popular measures among swing and conservative voters that doyle has to sign if he has any hope of keeping his liberal bases in madison and milwaukee voting.

Don't know when the filing date is, but it is always rumored that former Governor Tommy Thompson who was Secretary of HHS under bush during his first term, might return to wisconsin to challenge Sen. Herb Kohl for his senate seat. While Kohl polls decently well, it always seems as if he doesn't have a hardcore group of activists and supporters passionate about his work like Feingold does.

Hmm..

And how could I mention Wisconsin without talking about the Wisconsin 5th? Jim Sensenbrenner became my rep through redistricting and he is up there on the list of influential republicans who suck at life. Bryan Kennedy is challenging him (again) for the seat and is just starting to give life to the campaign with the new year.

Can't remember who did the listing, but a blogger made a post of all the vulnerable house seats that the dems should run for, and the wisconsin 5th was at the BOTTOM as in if the dems can win it, we will be seeing HISTORIC congressional turnover that makes 1994 look tiny.

Posted by: Ferris at January 10, 2006 10:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CD 8- Arizona

The race is going to be one of the most hotly contested races in the country. Gabrielle Giffords is the early frontrunner with both endorsements and money but I sense a groundswell of progressive support for anyone but her. Should former broadcaster, Patty Weiss, enter the race, she will be a force to contend with based mostly on name identification. BOTH OUR MODERATES. My money is on retired air force pilot Jeff Latas. He is working with bandofbrothers.com I think he was pressured to step aside once Kolbe announced he would not run for re-election.

Progessives and liberals should get behind Jeff now if he is going to stand a chance against better funded or name recognition candidates like Giffords or Weiss.

There are other announced candidates but most observers give them little chance.

The republicans are fighting amongst themselves to field any candidate but Randy Graf. Graf comes from the extreme wing nut right wing and the party realizes (especially Kolbe) that if he is their nominee it almost guarantees a Democratic pickup in CD8

Posted by: Randolph Decker at January 10, 2006 03:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am watching the Kansas Attorney General's race across the state line from me. Current AG Phill (KKK)Kline's all-abortion-all-the-time obsession is getting tiresome all across the state...to the point that Johnson County Kansas District Attorney Paul Morrison switched to the Democrats to run against him.

Morrison looks a hell of a lot better in a Stetson and cowboy boots than Kline, and that will play to the hilt in western Kansas.

This is huge news in Red Kansas, where Democrat Kathleen Sebelius (The Hippest, most Blues-Lovin' Governor in America) is set to cruise to a re-election victory in November. The R's haven't even fielded a serious candidate, and Mark Gietzen running his mouth isn't helping them...To the point that I am praying for his health from now through November. (Full Disclosure time: My kids went to Catholic School at St. Margaret-Mary in Wichita with Mark's kids, and he's a flippin' idiot. He and I have tangled before. I led the charge to see him defeated in a race for the state-house in the early 90's. There is no love lost between he and me. The Irish Priest who refused to use church funds for bail during the 1991 "Summer of Mercy" and I used to watch Notre Dame games and drink Guinness and talk about what a bloody fool he was.) Please Mark, drop those excess pounds you've packed on since I last saw you and keep talking! The Kansas Dem's need you!

Posted by: Left of Liberal at January 10, 2006 04:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tim Slash'n'burner is doing a heckuva job as chairman of the Kansas GOP.

Posted by: RBH at January 10, 2006 07:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Everyone might want to keep an eye on the MN 2nd, where Coleen Rowley is taking on Rep. John Kline (R-DeLay). The district may currently "lean republican" according to the usual suspects, but Mrs. Rowley is going to be a formidable candidate come fall. I will very much enjoy seeing the GOP atttempt to push around the career FBI agent and 9/11 whistleblower on national security issues, 'cause it ain't gonna happen. This is a very winnable race for the Democrats, and a chance to dump one of the worst House Republicans. Kline is a complete lackey of the president and Tom DeLay and this is a win that would be HUGE.

Posted by: JohnConstantine at January 13, 2006 11:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment