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Friday, February 17, 2006

Indiana: One Big Problem

Posted by DavidNYC

Even though Indiana's a very red state, we actually have several competitive House races brewing here. One, in Indiana's 9th CD, features a comeback by former Rep. Baron Hill, who lost by just a handful of votes in 2004. It's one of the most competitive and most-watched House races in the nation. There are also good matchups in IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) and IN-08 (Brad Ellsworth).

Unfortunately, we have a big gaping hole - right at the top of the ballot. Reader Christopher elaborates in comments:

The other somewhat sombre note on the 50-state strategy is that Indiana's filing deadline is today, and no one appears to have filed for the Senate race.

Lugar, of course, is unbeatable... barring the unforeseen. But this is February and the election isn't until November. The unforeseen occasionally happens - witness the Carnahan/Ashcroft Missouri race. With no dog at all in the race, Democrats will be unable to exploit any unexpected opportunity that might crop up later in the year.

I wish they had worked harder to twist an arm and get *somebody* signed up for the ballot. Roehmer. Hamilton. Poor old Jill Long. Kathy Davis. Joe Kernan. Graham Richards. Jonathan Weinzapfel. *Some*body.

Running as Senate cannon fodder in Indiana is no fun, but it can have its rewards - people forget, but that's how Baron Hill got his seat in Congress. He let the state party put him up against a GOP Senate incumbent, went down in flames... but then he had the name recognition to win a House seat in the next cycle.

It's a shame to see a blank that close to the top of a ballot.

Indeed. And with the filing deadline today, it looks like this big black hole is going to be unavoidable. This makes us look quite bad, and leaves Lugar free to waltz through the 2006 cycle without so much as having to put out a press release. Sigh.

UPDATE: I want to add that I think the Dems this year have done a pretty darn good recruitment job throughout the country. We have competitive races in several red states, which would not have happened without candidates like Claire McCaskill taking the plunge. That said, though, I'd rather have a candidate in Indiana than not have one.

Posted at 01:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Indiana | Technorati

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Comments

Hopefully a non-insane gadfly can show up to file.

(Non-insane of course means "No followers of LaRouche")

Posted by: RBH at February 17, 2006 02:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Off topic

David, is there a reason why Kos has removed a link to this blog from the Dailykos site? what's up with that?

The quick link from dkos to ssp was great.

Posted by: purpleday at February 17, 2006 02:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hahah... all is good. It looks like Markos "upgraded" me from the regular blogroll to the "Kos Alumni" section at the top of the blogroll.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 17, 2006 03:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oop, I guess I'm getting old (I've poor eyesight by the way)

thanks for the clarification. I can't do without SSP and MyDD.

Posted by: purpleday at February 17, 2006 03:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If Lugar is so universally loved, and he's not campaigning, wouldn't his admirers be less motivated to go to the polls and vote for him since he has no competition? That could actually help the down-ticket races by lowering Republican turnout, could it not?

Posted by: Fran for Dean at February 17, 2006 04:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Fran: It's conceivable. But now Lugar can also spend literally all his time fundraising for colleagues. So at best, it's a wash. But I actually think it's a net negative for us.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 17, 2006 04:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, it's embarrassing that the Democratic Party in my state couldn't find anyone to take on Dick Lugar. The people Christopher mentioned -- Jill Long, Kathy Davis, Graham Richard, etc. -- are all good people who would have been fine representatives of the party, but in the end I don't think it really is going to alter all that much. I'm not sure how much time Lugar's going to want to spend raising money and campaigning for other Republicans, in that he's never really been an active, partisan political person in that sense. In the fall, we've got three very competitive House races with excellent pick-up opportunities, and a very real shot at taking back the state House of Representatives. That's where everyone's attention and money are going to be, regardless of not having someone take on Lugar.

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at February 17, 2006 04:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's good to hear IndianaProgressive's up-to-date perspective.
It's quite true that regaining control of the lower house in the state legislature is an important and reachable goal - only three seats need to flip.
Democrats have signed up to run for 76 of the 100 seats; Republicans are running in 83 of the districts. I hope laser-accurate strategy is focused on identifying and winning the key races.
(Control of the Indiana State Senate is out of reach. The current balance is 17/33.)

I don't recognize any of the 4 GOP names signed up to run against Congresswoman Julia Carson in the 7th. They've run dirty, ugly campaigns against her in previous cycles. I hope the party doesn't have to spend big bucks to defend that seat.

I think both the 8th and the 9th are really good possibilities to go blue this year. The Democrats in the 4th & 5th are probably just brave cannon fodder but it would be nice to think that the 2nd is winnable this time;-- and wouldn't it be a wonderful coup to take Mike Pence's seat away, in the 6th. Someone on one of the other blogs said the other day that every Democrat who visits Barry Welsh's useful website that tracks the 50-state strategy for us should give him $10 for his campaign. It would surely help and it's a good idea.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at February 17, 2006 05:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think it was Hellofasandwich or maybe RBH who mentioned that idea about Barry Welsh. I like the idea, and I'm going to do it.

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 17, 2006 06:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, it was my suggestion. Personally, I think Barry should be added to the official Netroots Actblue page, even if he is a longshot. I just like the guy a lot, and I like the way he campaigns.

You could add him to the SSP page at ActBlue, David, if you want to.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 17, 2006 06:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So, who is running against Boehner in OH-8?

Posted by: RBH at February 17, 2006 08:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nevermind the question, I found the answer.

As of 3pm today, nobody is listed on our side as a candidate for the Senate.

Although the Dem primary for the 1st and the GOP primary for the 8th are the only two uncontested primaries. The other 7 incumbents have (presumably) minor challenges.

This is going to be an ugly year for incumbents.

Posted by: RBH at February 17, 2006 09:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Although, I should note that most of the brunt will go up against the Republicans.

A lot of longshots will fare better in 2006 than they will in any other recent election.

My theory is that we're better managing a campaign on limited resources. As well, we'll have more traction.

This isn't 2002, when Bush had a 66% job approval rating and Democrats were saying that they would hug and kiss Bush, but not him slip tongue.

This is 2006, when Bush has a job approval rating around 40%, and when Democrats will smell the coffee and talk about actually being opposed to a vast majority of Bush's policies.

Posted by: RBH at February 17, 2006 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It is looking like a great year for Democrats. Here in the 9th district, there is actually a primary for the seat. Though Baron Hill is certainly the frontrunner, I'm volunteering for Gretchen Clearwater. She's running a grassroots campaign and is gaining a lot of support. I think a good clean primary can only help our chances in November, by getting people thinking about our issues now. If you're interested, check out Gretchen's website and blog at www.clearwaterforcongress.com

Posted by: Eric at February 18, 2006 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It could be worse. You could be North Carolina, where we have three House seats unaccounted for as of today. NC-05, NC-06, NC-10 - no Dems signed up.

Posted by: chuckles at February 18, 2006 05:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've added a contribution box for Barry Welsh's net-savvy campaign to the ActBlue page at:

http://www.actblue.com/list/06Act+Local%2C+think+global

Baron Hill's campaign in the Indiana-9th is one of the races profiled at:

http://www.actblue.com/list/2006+Just+Say+%27No%27+to+Spoilers

and Sheriff Ellsworth, running in the Indiana-8th has a contribution box at:

http://www.actblue.com/list/2006fund

Posted by: Christopher Walker at February 18, 2006 09:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anybody know if write-in candidates could win a primary?

Posted by: RBH at February 18, 2006 10:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Christopher -- To answer your question above about the R's running against Julia Carson (who is my member of congress), Ron Franklin is probably going to get the nod, and most likely would be the toughest candidate of the bunch. He's a former at-large City-County Councilman, and is African-American. He's also socially VERY conservative, and is a member of a group called the "Concerned Clergy" -- a group of conservative black ministers who were recently very active trying (unsuccessfully) to stop a gay-rights ordinance in Marion County. Julia has run against a variety of candidates before (men and women, black and white, moderate and conservative, etc.), and always seems to get about 55% of the vote. There are lingering questions about her health, and she is a very liberal member of congress representing a much more moderately left-of-center district. That said, she has this district so well organized on election day -- kind-of similar to the old-school Chicago ward-style politics, that she should be fine. However, if more health questions arise, or Franklin really catches on, we may have a fight on our hands.

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at February 19, 2006 11:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ActBlue pages now display information about the total contributions raised via the aggregate of ActBlue volunteers on each page that lists a candidate, which is dandy. But it made me notice that the ActBlue network has so far performed dismally - or not at all - on these Indiana races.

All the pundits, on the Internet or elsewhere, list IN-8 and IN-9 as two of the top races to watch. Yet they're attracting no money at all from the blogosphere, possibly because the two leading Democrat candidates in those races are not especially web-savvy.

As soon as we pass Ciro Rodriguez's March 7 deadline, I strongly suggest moving at least these two races - and perhaps also IN-2 and IN-6, much closer to front-burner attention.

It would be a shame if everyone started out by sagely nodding our wise old heads when these slots are listed as "winnable" on all the lists, but we failed to do our little bit to actually help.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at February 20, 2006 02:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Since we were talking about the idea, I put a contribution box for Barry Welsh's campaign on my
"Act Local, think Global" ActBlue page:

http://www.actblue.com/list/06Act+Local%2C+think+global

and I coughed up my own preliminary ten bucks. Feel free to follow.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at February 20, 2006 04:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment