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Thursday, February 16, 2006

MA-Gov: Reilly and Patrick Tied

Posted by DavidNYC

From UMass Lowell (likely voters, Sept. in parens):

Patrick: 40 (18)
Reilly: 40 (49)
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±5%)

Lotta movement for Patrick over the past half-year. But can you believe that Mass. hasn't had a Dem governor since - wait for it - Michael Dukakis? I sure as hell hope that changes this year, but unfortunately, this poll also shows a much tighter general election race - much tighter than other polls, that is. Reily beats Kerry Healy just 43-42, and Patrick is at 40-38. A Suffolk Univ. poll from just a couple weeks ago gave Reilly a 15-point lead over Healy (and Patrick a seven-point margin). What gives?

Posted at 12:46 PM in 2006 Elections - State, Massachusetts | Technorati

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Comments

David, I heard some buzz a couple of months ago that Reilly had a growing scandal out there in Massachusetts. The specifics of the poll got into it a little, but not enough to where an outsider could understand what's going on. Perhaps it's good that Patrick is on the upswing since the accusations against Reilly are apparently sticking.

And I'm ordinarily not one for shameless self-promotion, but I started my own little blog a few months ago at the request of a friend and have recently posted a lengthy list of predictions detailing my thoughts on likely Senate, U.S. House, and Governor races in respective posts on the board. Hopefully, someone will find the commentary interesting. http://mark28.blogspot.com

Posted by: Mark at February 16, 2006 01:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

hey mark in your house analysis you put the clintons home as chappquidick - thats kennedy's home in mass. its chappaqua, and i think it is in Nita Lowey's district

Posted by: yomoma2424 at February 16, 2006 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

yomama, good catch. As soon as I read the next anti-Ted Kennedy screed by a conservative, I realized that I confused Chappaquiddick and Chappaqua. And someone else already informed me that the Clinton mansion is in Lowey's district rather than Kelly's. Thanks for the heads-up though.

Posted by: Mark at February 16, 2006 07:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey David, could you put (D) and (R) next to candidates names? I know, I know ... Im retarded.

Posted by: AlecBGreen at February 16, 2006 10:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Alec, that poll is for the primary election. Both are Democrats.

Posted by: Rob at February 16, 2006 10:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry, I usually try to give more complete information in the post itself. Sometimes I'm in a hurry and just can't type out full names and descriptions for each candidate. However, there's almost always a link in each post which will tell you more. And Google is your friend... :)

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 16, 2006 11:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"I heard some buzz a couple of months ago that Reilly had a growing scandal out there in Massachusetts..."

Reilly got in some hot water for choosing his "running mate" (we have separate elections for Gov. and Lt. Gov., but they usually run as a ticket) who has a poor tax and credit history. Personaly, I thought it was unfair - the running mate was a State Rep. who had defaulted on some school loans, or something to that effect. But Reilly handled the situation pretty poorly, actually declaring himself to be a "bad politician." I think he's somewhat of an empty suit, the kind of guy who runs for Gov. because he's "supposed to."

I'm 100% a Duval Patrck man. He has humble origins - the South Side of Chicago, I believe - he made his way into Harvard Law School, became the top Civil Rights atty in Clinton's Justice Department, and then became General Counsel for Coke and actually helped Coke become more socially conscious company (I know, they still have a looong way to go...). And knows he's using the money he made form Coke to run for Gov. He's got a great grassroots organization already going, and he's a lefty. He'll be a great steward for MA's emerging "universal" healthcare plan. It's a pretty weak Republican field at this point, so it will be interesting to see if we can finally get a Dem back in the Statehouse.

Just my 2 cents.

Posted by: tomthebomb at February 17, 2006 02:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Like former Attorney General Scott Harshbarger (who lost to Paul Celluci), Reilly has looked surprisingly uncomfortable as a politician. I haven't seen a lot of Patrick, but Reilly is certainly beatable. And Healey is just an atrocious candidate. The more exposure she gets, the worse she'll look.

Posted by: owenz at February 17, 2006 03:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey y'all, there's a lot of action in the MA-Gov race beyond this one poll, as well as the Lt. Gov. race. Drop by and check it out - we're a soapblox (i.e., Scoop-like) site at which any user can post diaries. www.BlueMassGroup.com.

Posted by: david blue at February 18, 2006 10:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment