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Sunday, February 19, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

You know the drill.

Posted at 02:11 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Ohio breakdown:

OH-1:
One Republican: Rep. Steve Chabot
One Democrat: Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley

OH-2:
Four Republicans: James Constable, Deborah Kraus, Former Rep. Bob McEwen, and Rep. Jean Schmidt
Five Democrats: Gaby Downey, Thor Jacobs, Jim Parker, Jeff Sinnard, and Victoria Wulsin

OH-3:
One Republican: Rep. Mike Turner
Three Democrats: David Fierst, Charles Sanders, and Stephanie Studebaker

OH-4:
Six Republicans: Frank Guglielmi, State Sen. Jim Jordan, Nathan Jordan, Kevin Nestor, Jim Stahl, and Charles Weasel
One Democrat: Richard Siferd

OH-5:
One Republican: Rep. Paul Gillmor
One Democrat: Robin Weirauch

OH-6:
Two or Three Democrats: Bob Carr, John Luchanstay, and State Sen. Charles Wilson (subject to change)
Six Republicans: Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel, Tim Ginter, Danny Harmon, Richard Holt, and Rich Stobbs

OH-7:
One Republican: Rep. Dave Hobson
Two Democrats: William Conner and Dan Saks

OH-8:
One Republican: Republican leader John Boehner
One Democrat: Morton Meier

OH-9:
One Democrat: Rep. Marcy Kaptur
Three Republicans: Ed Emery, Dick Kubala, and Bradley Leavitt

OH-10:
Two Democrats: Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Barbara Ferris
Two Republicans: Mike Dovilla and Jason Werner

OH-11:
One Democrat: Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones
One Republican: Lindsey String

OH-12:
One Republican: Rep. Pat Tiberi
Six Democrats: Ed Brown, Michael Riley, Patricia Shaffer, Ex-Rep. Bob Shamansky, Nick Singh, and John Swords

OH-13:
Nine Democrats: Heiress Capri Cafaro, Norbert Dennerll, Daniel Goulder, Mayor Bill Grace, Gary Kucinich, Michael Lyons, Ex-Rep. Tom Sawyer, John Schira, Ex-State Rep. Betty Sutton, and John Wolfe
Eight Republicans: Ruth Abboud, Paul Burtzlaff, Anthony Cirino, Charles Delorean, Mayor Craig Foltin, Laurence Jaycox, David McGrew, and Joe Ortega

OH-14:
One Republican: Rep. Steve LaTourette
Three Democrats: Dale Blanchard, Lewis Katz, and Palmer Peterson

OH-15:
One Republican: Rep. Deborah Pryce
One Democrat: Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16:
Two Republicans: Rep. Ralph Regula and Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller
Three Democrats: Tom Mason, Jeff Seemann, and Thomas Shaw

OH-17:
One Democrat: Rep. Tim Ryan
And Nobody Else

OH-18:
Two Republicans: Bob Ney and James Harris
Five Democrats: Ralph Applegate, Zack Space, Jennifer Stewart, Mayor Joe Sulzer, and Jeff Wollard.

Posted by: RBH at February 18, 2006 02:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

None of the three entered in the OH-09 GOP primary are meaningful candidates. One is a "frequent candidate" who has been arrested repeatedly as the result of being deranged...

Posted by: Ohanon at February 18, 2006 03:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Presumably the deranged guy isn't likely to win the primary.

Anybody got any information on Shamansky?

Typically former Congressmen don't just file for another Congress race at the last minute. Shamansky was in Congress from 1981 to 1983, losing to Kasich in 1982.

Posted by: RBH at February 18, 2006 04:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-05 Al Weed vs. Bern Ewert (primary)

The primary here is between a principled progressive named Al Weed who's committed to the party and the district, and a newcoming DLC democrat named Bern Ewert with support from the state party chair and other party insiders.

This is a heavily Republican rural district, where the incumbent (Virgil "became a republican for a seat on appropriations" Goode) gets 64% of the vote every time. So Bern thinks he's going to win by pandering to the middle on every single issue; except in doing so he loses any chance at invigorating the heavily Democratic stronghold of Charlottesville (75-80% Democrat) for activist support.

Having pandered away any hope of a die-hard activist base, Bern still carries the stigma (for the general) of actually living in Charlottesville (seen in the southside as the elitist college-town that it sort of is). Not only does Al already have considerable infrastructure from his 2004 run, but the activists love him for his uncompromising stand on gay rights, the war, biofuels, universal health care, abortion, taxes, and voting rights.

Al Weed is the real deal. He's a farmer from southside's Lovingston, which puts him a lot closer to the world in which many of the district's dejected and disenfranchised voters actually live. He has an open mind, a careful eye, and a sharp tongue; He stands for the values that are important to me, and recognizes the priorities important to the district. But the party establishment are trying to cut him off at the knees, which is why we need netroots support. And that is why this race is important to me.

Posted by: msnook at February 18, 2006 08:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

PA-Gov

A few close Rendell-Swann polls were enough for me to take notice, but I'm chalking that up to a combo of "honeymoon" and Super Bowl factors. Quinnipiac just came out with a poll having Rendell 12 points ahead, and Rendell's approval rating is right around 50%, which is an increase since last year's pay raise. My prediction is that Swann, who has already made a few gaffes, will be making the Republicans eat crow for giving him the nomination already. I still think we should keep an eye on the race, though, if only to be entertained by the politically-inept Swann. :)

Posted by: Rob at February 18, 2006 10:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Apart from his infrequent voting (after extolling the importance of voting), what gaffes has Swann made so far?

Posted by: DavidNYC at February 18, 2006 11:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OR-02.

The only Republican representative from Oregon (of 5, Greg Walden, represents all of rural, Eastern Oregon, and has been a rubber stamp for Bush's policies, most of which negatively impact his district.

He's being challenged via a shotgun approach by 3, maybe 4, Democrats representing the 3 major metropolitan areas in the district, so they stand a good chance of building up good local coverage and support.

My favorite so far is Chuck Butcher, a construction contractor and straightshooter at chuckfor.blogspot.com.

Posted by: verasoie at February 19, 2006 03:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As always...MN-01. Tim Walz is officially announcing his candidacy this weekend. He is a fightin' Dem and a top-tier candidate. This guy should get on the Swing State Project fundraising list.
I am still into MT-SEN, Jon Tester is my boy. TX-28 has got me pretty pumped, same with MN-GOV, MN-02, and MN-SEN.

Posted by: DFLer22 at February 19, 2006 09:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

PA-GOV
I don't think it will be long before the PA Republican State Committee experiences a bad case of buyer's remorse for handing Swann the endorsement.

Posted by: berwyn at February 19, 2006 09:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, Swann did a botch-up job on last week's This Week that showed that he's going to need to practice his lines more if he has any chance of winning.

He smiled smugly as he told Stephanopoulos that if the Supreme Court would overrule Roe that they would in essence "ban abortion," which George called him on.

He also pulled a Talent by not wanting to take a solid position on stem-cell research, and he seemed to be almost debating the issue with himself while Stephanopoulos tried to figure out Swann's position. Something tells me that's not the wisest thing to do when you hail from Pittsburgh, with an abundance of medical centers, or Pennsylvania as a whole, which, unlike Missouri, is quite pro-choice and thus more likely to be pro-cure.

Lynn Swann doesn't seem like a bad person (his wide receiver days were before my time), but I think he makes for a crappy politician.

Posted by: Rob at February 19, 2006 12:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

nORTH CAROLINA BREAKDOWN
We're missing three seats.

***DISTRICT 1 DEMOCRATIC G.K. BUTTERFIELD

***DISTRICT 2 DEMOCRATIC BOB ETHERIDGE

DISTRICT 3 DEMOCRATIC CRAIG WEBER
DISTRICT 3 REPUBLICAN WALTER B. JONES

DISTRICT 4 DEMOCRATIC KENT KANOY
DISTRICT 4 DEMOCRATIC OSCAR LEWIS
DISTRICT 4 REPUBLICAN STEVE ACUFF

***DISTRICT 5 REPUBLICAN VIRGINIA FOXX

***DISTRICT 6 REPUBLICAN HOWARD COBLE

DISTRICT 7 DEMOCRATIC MIKE McINTYRE
DISTRICT 7 REPUBLICAN SHIRLEY DAVIS

DISTRICT 8 DEMOCRATIC TIM DUNN
DISTRICT 8 DEMOCRATIC LARRY KISSELL
DISTRICT 8 DEMOCRATIC MARK F. ORTIZ
DISTRICT 8 REPUBLICAN ROBERT C. 'ROBIN' HAYES

DISTRICT 9 DEMOCRATIC BILL GLASS
DISTRICT 9 REPUBLICAN SUE MYRICK 9169 BONNIE BRIAR

***DISTRICT 10????

DISTRICT 11 DEMOCRATIC C. MICHAEL MORGAN
DISTRICT 11 DEMOCRATIC HEATH SHULER

DISTRICT 12 DEMOCRATIC MEL WATT
DISTRICT 12 REPUBLICAN ADA M. FISHER
DISTRICT 12 REPUBLICAN VERNON ROBINSON

DISTRICT 13 DEMOCRATIC BRAD MILLER
DISTRICT 13 REPUBLICAN CHARLIE SUTHERLAND

Posted by: chuckles at February 19, 2006 12:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just as a follow up, Patrick McHenry in NC-10 hasn't signed up to run yet, but he probably will, right?

2005-2006 Total Receipts: $828,487
2005-2006 Total Spent: $573,805
Cash on Hand: $218,405

Well, that isn't a huge cash load on hand. Maybe he's done? Doubtful, but one can wish.

Posted by: chuckles at February 19, 2006 12:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in the race for IN-03. A Democrat running for the nomination that I'm excited about is Dr. Tom Hayhurst. He's an MD and a Fighting Dem (who needs to be listed on the Band of Brothers, by the by)--a USAF vet of the Vietnam War. He has a lot of Veteran support on the account of his years of advocacy for better healthcare for Veterans, and apparently 500 volunteers. Opensecrets.org says that he's outraised the incumbent by about $100k to $80k in Cash on Hand. Not too bad.

http://www.tomhayhurstforcongress.com/

From what I hear, his campaign is doing interesting things like shovelling the driveways of seniors after snowfalls.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 19, 2006 01:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'll admit I don't know much about Hayhurst other than what you mention above, but he is an interesting candidate. IN-3 is a really tough district for Democrats (it's the NE corner of the state, centered in Fort Wayne), but it's not as ultra conservative as the 4th or 5th districts (which Dems can just forget about). Most Fort Wayne voters are rather conservative, typically vote Democrat, but can be open minded for the right candidate. And the fact that the incumbent is about as un-distinguished as you can get after several terms in Congress helps too! Can Hayhurst win? I'd be beyond stunned. Can he do better than most people think a Democrat can do there? I think so.

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at February 19, 2006 03:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry -- the above should read that most Fort Wayne voters typically vote Republican -- an un-noticed mistake like that should lead to my blogging privileges being taken away!!! Or at least tell me I need some more coffee today.

Posted by: IndianaProgressive at February 19, 2006 03:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for mentioning my name in the candidates list for oh 2. I held a press conference and no one came. What a disappointment. When I start making a defference we'll see who wants an interview.

Posted by: politicalgeek at February 19, 2006 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NH-01 House Democratic Leader Jim Craig may be jumping into the race against Jeb Bradley. That would be cool because Craig has the ability to raise enough money to make it a credible race.

Posted by: itstime at February 19, 2006 09:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm interested in NV-CD3. Tessa Hafen has entered the race against Repub incumbent Jon Porter (she'll announce officially tomorrow). She was Reid's spokeswoman until just a few weeks ago, and the district is a swing district. She's only 29 years old, which makes it especially interesting to me (I mean, really, that's like, my age!). The attacks against her will probably be that she's a Reid hack and that she's young and inexperienced. I guess we'll see how that goes.

Sarah

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at February 20, 2006 01:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I hope she campaigns with your dad, Sarah. :)

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 20, 2006 08:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment