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Saturday, February 25, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

What looks interesting this week?

P.S. If you are interested in helping Ciro Rodriguez out by doing some virtual phonebanking, please sign up here.

Posted at 08:32 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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VA-05

As usual, I'm plugging my local fighting Dem Al Weed, progressive visionary, scholar, farmer, soldier (42 years), party builder. He's running (again) against Virgil "switched parties for a seat on appropriations" Goode, and now faces a primary against a newcoming DLC Democrat.

Well there's some news out from today's Washington Post regarding Virgil's connections to MZM:

"The new admissions, including details that identify Reps. Virgil H. Goode Jr. (R-Va.) and Katherine Harris (R-Fla.) as recipients of illegal campaign contributions, are contained in Wade's agreement to plead guilty to four criminal charges stemming from his role in the Cunningham probe...
"The court filings indicated a new direction for the corruption inquiry...
"Wade also pleaded guilty to election law fraud for making nearly $80,000 in illegal campaign contributions to 'Representatives A and B,' who are identifiable as Goode and Harris...
"Goode's office said it would issue a statement, but The Post had not received one by late yesterday."

I like the sound of that "new direction for the corruption inquiry" thing. If Virgil gets indicted after the filing deadline, the 5th district will be only a primary away from having a solidly progressive representative in congress.

Al Weed

Posted by: msnook at February 25, 2006 09:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Uncontested seats for the impending deadlines

Mississippi (Wednesday) - Pickering is not opposed yet. Roger Wicker has an opponent.

North Carolina (Tuesday) - Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry have at least one filed opponent. Howard Coble is the only uncontested NC Republican.

Pennsylvania (March 7th) - Peterson and Shuster are the most likely to cause a sweat about uncontested Republicans. But they may both get opposed too.

California (March 10th) - Nunes and Calvert are the ones who I list as unopposed. Somebody has done enough to file with the FEC to face Thomas and McKeon. Lungren has multiple opponents. As does Herger.

Iowa (March 17th) - Anybody got any reports of activity to oppose Latham?

Utah (March 17th) - Anybody got any reports of activity to oppose Cannon? And from what I can see, the Utah Democrats are slightly more popular than Nationwide Democrats. Which means "They get 1/3rd of the vote instead of 1/4th of the vote"

Missouri (March 28th) - Filing starts on Tuesday, which will finally answer the question of "Who will show up to face Blunt and Emerson"

South Carolina (March 30th) - Wilson and Inglis are the two Republicans who I still hear are unopposed.

Right now, my count of uncontested Republicans is 38.

By state:

Alabama- 5 (Bonner, Everett, Rogers, Aderholt, and Bachus)
Arkansas- 1 (Boozman)
California- 2
Florida- 1 (Putnam)
Georgia- 3 (Norwood, Deal, Gingrey)
Iowa- 1
Louisiana- 4 (McCrery, Alexander, Baker, Boustany)
Michigan- 1 (Ehlers)
Mississippi- 1
Missouri- 2
New Jersey- 1 (Smith)
New York- 1 (King)
North Carolina- 1
Oklahoma- 2 (Sullivan and Lucas)
Pennsylvania- 1 (Peterson)
South Carolina- 2
Tennessee- 2 (TN-1 and Duncan)
Texas- 1 (Conaway)
Utah- 1
Virginia- 3 (Forbes, Goodlatte, and Cantor)
Washington- 1 (McMorris)
Wisconsin- 1 (Petri)

Oh yeah, 38 right now is pretty good, because there was 36 uncontested Republicans on election day 2004.

So we're going to top 400 candidates, and probably top 415 or 420 candidates.

Posted by: RBH at February 25, 2006 11:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

TX-28: is really pumping me up, I signed up for the virtual phonebank.
MT-SEN: Jon Tester is still my favorite candidate in the entire country.
MN-01: Tim WALZ!
MN-GOV: Establishment vs. Activists battle is brewing...

Posted by: DFLer22 at February 25, 2006 11:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There is an uncontested candidate in Minnesota's Third...I have heard some mumblings here and there, but have yet to hear of a real candidate.

Posted by: DFLer22 at February 25, 2006 11:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's a link on Roland Low, who is supposedly going to run against Ramstad

Posted by: RBH at February 25, 2006 11:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I got a bunch of races on my mind.

FL-15: I heard somthing about a fighting Dem. running here i could be wrong.
FL-22: How is Klein doing..?
FL-GOV: We need to get Jim Davis's name ID up as much as we can if Charlie Crist is elected Govenor don't know what i will do...
FL-Sen: Intesesting Msnook about the Illegal Contributions though i hope they don't come out big till Septemeber because i want Harris to be the nominee.
VA-Sen: James Webb needs to be the magic 6th that gives us the majority.
CO-Gov: Democrats seem to be riseing in polls in the Gov. race. Maybe that will help us out in CD 7, CD 4, and state leg. races in CO to.
OH-Sen: I hear Sherrod Brown is starting to lag he needs to make the "I feel you pain" Speech that motivates people or else he is going to lose this race.
IN-09 and KY-04: Conservatives vs. Centralist Dems. time to see if Republicans perfer Consensus or Right Extremeism.
SD-Gov: We need a Dem. to Run here and talk about the Rapist Reproductive Rights of 2006 act.
NV-Sen: We need to get Jack Carters poll ratings up.
MD-03: Interested in that Primary.
TX-28: Cuellear is going to be looking for a job in January.
IA-01: voted 53-45 for Kerry Dems. should win this.
IL-Gov. How is Blago. doing in messing up our chances to win in IL-06, IL-08 and IL-11.
HI-Sen: Case vs. Akaka
Hm i think that does it for me... Just a few things on my mind you know...

Posted by: D in FL. at February 26, 2006 01:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

How could I forget. Freakin' VA-Sen -- Jim Webb? This is gonna be awesome.

Posted by: msnook at February 26, 2006 02:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Whoa... FL-15:

Looks like the Fighting Dem who is running, Dr. Bob Bowman, is a PhD in Aeronautics and Nuclear Engineering (holy Christ). Not only did he fly 101 combat missions in Vietnam, he was also the former director of the "Star Wars" defense program under Presidents Ford and Carter.

This guy doesn't seem like a lightweight at all. Holy SHIT! Read his bio. It's pretty damn astounding: http://bowman2006.com/about.htm

He also appears to have run for President before, under the Reform ticket. But his bio really sells is as a left-wing/populist endeavor.

Should be interesting.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 26, 2006 03:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Did I mention how astounding his bio is? I forgot to mention that he's also a freakin' Archbishop, too!

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 26, 2006 03:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Reading a bit more about him, his positions seem like a leftist's wet dream. He has a lot of positions that could be easily attacked... like, you know, saying that the CIA should be abolished. I mean, a lot of this is bold stuff, and some of it is "out there" (maybe even too out there for me)...

http://bowman2006.com/issues_az.htm

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 26, 2006 03:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MN-ALL - Last night was the St. Paul DFL's Straw Poll event, and it was excellent! Unofficial balloting lead to the following wins:

MN-SEN - Amy Klobuchar (~66%)
MN-GOV - Steve Kelley (36% to Becky Lourey's 29%)
MN-SOS - Mark Ritchie (with a lot of undecideds)
MN-AG - Well, Matt Entenza was the only candidate on the ballot.

The event was excellent, and with precinct caucuses coming up in a week and a half, it's getting mighty exciting here in Minnesota.

Posted by: JelloAbode at February 26, 2006 09:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In Fl-22, Klein is doing phenomially well, He has been very successful in his fundraising efforts

When you guys talk about the Fl. gov race, the only Democrat mentioned is Davis. Let me remind you all that there is a dark horse candidate, Rod Smith, a little known state senator. I know Davis looks like a politican, but once he opens his mouth, he and his ideas are very unappealing. On the other hand Rod Smith is a true progressive in almost every sense. More than that, he appeals to the more conservative dems with his views on the death penalty. I went to a debate between the two candidates and came away very impressed with Smith and his ideas, espicially his ideas with standardized testing...

Posted by: danny at February 26, 2006 08:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH

Oklahoma- 2 (Sullivan and Lucas)
you are forgeting Cole we have found no dem yet

Posted by: xenoph10005 at February 26, 2006 09:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have heard bad things about Rod Smith on his issues to conservative some people say i'll look into it myself.

Posted by: D in FL. at February 26, 2006 10:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ever since they liveblogged on DailyKos earlier, Bill Winter and Jay Fawcett. They seem like awesome guys running tough, but not impossible, campaigns. I'll be keeping an eye on them for sure.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 26, 2006 10:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Winter, with all due respect, has no chance. He lives in an incredibly Republican district and I don't think he can win. While Fawcett may have been in the same position a few weeks back, the fact that the incumbent is retiring gives him a shot.

Posted by: safi at February 26, 2006 11:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jack Jackson's challenge to Rick Renzi in AZ CD-1. Jackson is a fantastic candidate, but he's terribly underfunded. On the other hand, Renzi's taking the race so lightly he's only got a net $300,000 COH, which means Jackson could make a real race of it with some serious blogosphere support.

Several months ago I e-mailed the campaign offering to be a volunteer journeyman blogger for them (the same service I performed for Paul Babbitt in the same district in '04). Maybe a month ago, the campaign manager, David Schapira, e-mailed me and said they wanted to take me up on the offer and gave me his cell number (which he also lists on the Contact page). I never got back to him because my time became much more limited; but if someone more knowledgeable than me on blogosphere advertising wanted to call him up and chat with him about how to strategically utilize the blogosphere, I think that would be a great service. He's very open, and the race is winnable with a little fire under Jackson's feet.

Posted by: Nonpartisan at February 27, 2006 01:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm hopeful on Winter; Tancredo's share of the vote has fallen over each of the past couple cycles... 60% in 2004, 67% in 2002. Winter's campaign is being run by the guy who ran John Salazar's campain in '04. I'd like to hope that CO-06 voters could wake up and realize they're being represented by a racist.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at February 27, 2006 01:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"RBH

Oklahoma- 2 (Sullivan and Lucas)
you are forgeting Cole we have found no dem yet"

Actually, I confused Lucas and Cole.

Lucas has an opponent named John Harris.

Cole doesn't have anybody yet.

Posted by: RBH at February 27, 2006 09:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Arggh. It's been two weeks and I'm still not getting over the fact that we've lost the Ohio Senate race. The total lack of enthusiasm and energy out in the non-blogosphere world of Ohio's streets is palpable. No one who did care cares anymore; some who didn't care are disillusioned. Rodriguez is one of the candidates I'm recommending people redirect their resources to, rather than squandering them on Ohio's Senate race. What is virtual phone banking? Is that when people from out-of-state who know nothing about the district call because I would find that even more annoying than getting a robocall from Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth "Katherine Harris" Blackwell, urging me to persecute gays — and that already happpened!

Posted by: Ansatasia P at February 27, 2006 12:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA 05 - I live in the Charlottesville portion of the 5th and you would think Goode was vulnerable but then again this is Charlottesville-Albemarle. In the end I think Virgil will come out on top but its certainly worth fighting.

VA Sen - this race is going to be closer than peope think. Allen is below 50% in the latest Rasmussen and Virginia is undeniably shifting left. If there continues to be a back lash against Republicans in Northern VA, not just in Fairfax but Prince William and Loudon as well, and Tidewater votes for one of their own as opposed to a chickenhawk like cowboy Allen then you will have an interesting race.

Posted by: UVA08 at February 27, 2006 12:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anyone know anything about New Jersey's 5th district?

Posted by: jerzay at February 28, 2006 12:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well NJ-05 is Represented by Rep. Scott Garrett who is your basic Conservative Republican in a red district he votes with the Republicans most of the time but has come over to the D side a few times. He voted no to drilling in ANWR and to the Medicare/RX bill but besides that he is a right wing conservative. His District is 57-43 Bush. The district is made up of Warren, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen counties. It doesn't look like there are many large cities in the district. So you probibly would need a very strong Democratic Candidate if you where trying to win here.

Posted by: D in FL. at February 28, 2006 12:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The only Dem. Candidate i see on the DCCC site is this guy http://www.paularonsohn.com/ don't know if he would be a good candidate or not but at least he has his website up heh.

Posted by: D in FL. at February 28, 2006 12:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Anstasia, I'm not willing to put the nails in Brown's coffin yet. There's still over 8 months until the election and the majority of the people who are upset and disillusioned by this turn of events are non-Ohioans. Brown has a nice warchest which he can concentrate on since he has little to no primary challenge now. It'll be interesting to see what his 1st Quarter numbers will be now though.

Posted by: safi at February 28, 2006 12:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Out in New York, we're encouraging people to cast a health care vote for Linda Rosenthal in AD67 and Sylvia Friedman in AD74. More here, including how to find out what district you're in and where to vote.

Posted by: Steve at February 28, 2006 01:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And the North Carolina Congressional races for 2006, as of the close of filing at Noon today

List

NC-01 (57/43 Kerry): Butterfield (D) unopposed
NC-02 (54/46 Bush): Etheridge (D) v. Dan Mansell (R)
NC-03 (68/32 Bush): Jones (R) v. Craig Weber (D)
NC-04 (56/44 Kerry): Price (D), Kent Kanoy (D), or Oscar Lewis (D) v. Steve Acuff (R)
NC-05 (67/33 Bush): Foxx (R) v. Mark Glen (D), Syndi Holmes (D), Roger Kirkman (D), or Roger Sharpe (D)
NC-06 (70/30 Bush): Coble (R) v. Rory Blake (D)
NC-07 (56/44 Bush): McIntyre (D) v. Shirley Davis (R)
NC-08 (54/46 Bush): Hayes (R) v. John Autry (D), Tim Dunn (D), Larry Kissell (D), or Mark Ortiz (D)
NC-09 (64/36 Bush): Myrick (R) v. Bill Glass (D)
NC-10 (67/33 Bush): McHenry (R) v. Richard Carsner (D)
NC-11 (57/43 Bush): Taylor (R) or John Armor (R) v. Michael Morgan (D) or Heath Shuler (D)
NC-12 (63/37 Kerry): Watt (D) v. Ada Fisher (R)
NC-13 (53/47 Kerry): Miller (D) v. John Hendrix (R), Vernon Robinson (R), or Charlie Sutherland (R)

Yes, the form says Robinson is running in the 13th. But he's probably really running in the 12th.

13 Districts, 6 incumbent Democrats v. 8 challenging Republicans, 7 incumbent Republicans v. 14 challenging Dems, 1 Republican challenging an incunbent Republican, 2 Democrats challenging an incumbent Democrat.

Posted by: RBH at February 28, 2006 03:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Charle Cooks 2/24 report is now listing 20 Competitive Dem Hose Seats (2 Toss-up, 9 leans dem, 9 likely dem) and a whopping 46 Competitive Gop seats (10 toss-up, 11 likely Gop, 25 lean gop). This is good news.
Here's the link:
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_feb24.pdf

Its my take that at least 4 of the leans gop seats should definitely be placed in the tossup category:
VA-2 (Drake vs. Kellam)
NJ-7 (Ferguson vs. Stender)
NY-19 (Kelly vs. ?)
NY-20 (McSweeney vs. Gillebrand)
CA-11 (Pombo vs. McNerney or ?) if Pombo wins his primary fight.
Another race to watch which won't go Gop is CA-6 Woolsey (D)is facing a stiff internal challenge from Moderate Dem Assemblyman Joe Nation (term limited guy).
Other info like Larry Sabato's Dirty 30 Competitive Races can be found here (12 Toss-up, 12 lean R, 6 lean Dem):
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/

I can see the Dems easily picking up 15 seats at this point, given the current climate. Cheers.

Posted by: Predictor at February 28, 2006 05:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thant was House vs. "Hose" and 5 versus 4 (leans to toss-up) multitasking, LOL.

Posted by: Predictor at February 28, 2006 05:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Virginia 2nd

2004
Kerry (D) : 41.53% 101,576
Bush (r): 57.69% 141,097
2005
Kilgore (r): 64,955 46.79%
Kaine (D): 69,153 49.81%
Potts (I): 4,559 3.28%
Note: although Potts is a Rep. he was seen as to the left of Kilgore & Kaine on issues of gay rights and choice.

Posted by: Predictor at February 28, 2006 06:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm excited about this event that Blue Catapult is organizing:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/3/1/15012/78862

BC is a PAC set-up to expand the battlefield: to help raise funds for Democrats in potentially-competitive races who need an extra boost of cash to mount strong challenges. They're having a party for the benefit of the Eric Massa (NY-29), Chris Carney (PA-10), and Darcy Burner (WA-8) campaigns on March 8 at the Blue Room lounge in Washington, DC.

http://www.bluecatapult.com/launch.html

Looks like they'll be playing progressive house on the boxes (lol). I wonder what audience they're aiming for... ;P Still, it's a great cause, and I encourage anyone with the means to go and help out Blue Catapult and these three great candidates.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 2, 2006 04:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment