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Monday, March 27, 2006

CA-50: Two Polls Show Busby With Wide Leads

Posted by DavidNYC

The first poll is an internal poll taken for the campaign. Unfortunately, there is no link available yet, but here it is (likely special election voters, no trendlines):

Francine Busby (D): 39
Brian Bilbray (R): 15
Howard Kaloogian (R): 7
Eric Roach (R): 7
Bill Morrow (R): 4
Alan Uke (R): 3
Paul King (L): 2
Richard Earnest (R): 1
Chris Young (D): 1
Victor Ramirez (R): 1
Bill Hauf (R): 1
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Seven candidates scored zero percent in the Busby poll. The second survey (PDF) was taken by an independent company called Datamar ("high-propensity" registered voters, no trendlines):

Francine Busby (D): 36
Brian Bilbray (R): 11.7
Eric Roach (R): 11.2
Howard Kaloogian (R): 10.6
Scott Orren (R): 5
Bill Morrow (R): 4.8
Alan Uke (R): 3
Bill Hauf (R): 2.7
Richard Earnest (R): 2
Bill Boyer (R): 1.7
Paul King (L): 1.5
William Griffith (no party): 1.3
Scott Turner (R): 1.3
Chris Young (D): 1
Delicia Holt (R): 0.6
Jeff Newsome (R): 0.5
Victor Ramirez (R): 0.3
Milton Gale (R): 0.1
Undecided: 3.6
(MoE: ±4.07%)

It's nice to see an independent poll largely mirror the results of the internal poll. Don't get too excited, though. In case you aren't familiar with how California special elections work, the problem is this: The top finisher from each party advances to the next round, unless someone gets 50% the first time around. Busby may be in the lead, but she's well off the fifty-percent mark, so we're almost certainly headed to a run-off (which would take place on June 6th).

In the run-off, this enormous field will get whittled down to just two serious players: Busby, and whoever wins the GOP "nomination." The Republicans will have two months to unite behind their guy, and they'll be able to pump tons of money into this race. Busby's done well financially, but she faces the simple natural disadvantage of running in a district that tilts pretty solidly Republican. As you can see from both polls, Busby would necessarily have to win over some people who are currently voting for a GOPer in order to win in June.

Some people have made a comparison to the San Diego special mayoral election last year. There, Democrat Donna Frye pulled in 43% of the vote in the first round, but lost 54-46 in the final round to a candidate who had only gotten 27% in the first round. For whatever reason, Frye was only able to add three percent to her vote totals, while her opponent doubled his score. It's possible a similar scenario could play out in CA-50.

We do have a few things working in our favor, though. The big one is felon Duke Cunningham's long, scabrous shadow. Busby will be able to remind voters what party Cunningham belonged to at every opportunity. The second thing is that the GOP "primary" has taken some nasty turns - including, as I've mentioned, Republican groups openly attacking front-runner Brian Bilbray. And lastly, by all accounts, Busby has run a very sharp, mistake-free campaign. She raised over half a mil before January and will probably show solid numbers when the current quarter comes to a close. I look forward to seeing what those look like.

Posted at 06:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Technorati

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Comments

She's got a great professional team, solid fundraising and she's a dynamic speaker! Great Candidate.

If you haven't heard her speak, I have the audio of her speech at the Los Angeles Progressive Rally Feb 4, '06 right here.
It's in both a Flash Player that requires no download and a mp3 link that you can use for your iPod.

She's worth the listen.

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill at March 27, 2006 09:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Earlier in March the Busby campaign announced it had surpassed the $1 million mark in fundraising. Nice to see this race getting some more attention from the netroots :)
link

Posted by: HMiller at March 27, 2006 11:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually, that first poll is also encouraging when you consider that she gets 39% out of the 81% that had a preference.

If she runs as well with undecideds as she does with decideds and that poll holds up, she'll be in the high 40s.

Granted, more information on the undecideds arould be useful.

Posted by: RBH at March 28, 2006 12:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's a good point, but do you not think that the undecideds may skew heavily Republican? After all, they have a TON of people to choose from, whereas the non-Republican options are pretty limited. Democratic and left-leaning voters have a clear path, but the Republican side is a lot more muddled. I still hope I'm wrong on this one.

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 28, 2006 02:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

SUSA ran a huge favorable/unfavorable poll with some encouraging results

Busby's favorable rating is at 44/23 with Independents and 44/19 with Moderates. Her name recognition looks to be pretty good as well. And her ratings with voters over 50 are also around 45% favorable.

There's only six serious contenders for an April election. Busby, Bilbray, Roach, Kaloogian, Roach, and Uke.

And i'd imagine that Bilbray or Kaloogian will finish second.

Posted by: RBH at March 28, 2006 02:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment