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Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Illinois Primaries are Today

Posted by DavidNYC

The key races:

• IL-06: Cegelis v. Duckworth. Do I even need to say anything about this? I'm just glad that this race will finally be over. There is no primary on the GOP side - the candidate will be state Sen. Peter Roskam.

• IL-08: Freshman Melissa Bean's seat. Six Republicans are fighting to unseat her, including a couple who have spent millions of their own money. Bean may be somewhat vulnerable, but personally, I think there are several other Democrats who are in much more precarious shape than she is.

• IL-Gov: If you want to talk about endangered incumbents, here's one for ya: Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, also known as "Blago". Blago himself has a primary opponent, but I think the real danger comes from the GOP side. Treas. Judy Baar Topinka has successfully cast herself as a moderate and has also raised a lot of money. If Republican voters in Illinois have any sense, they'll nominate her. It's kind of amazing to me that just two years after the IL GOP sank to tapping out-of-state joker Alan Keyes to run for Senate, any Democrat could be vulnerable in Illinois, but there it is.

Anyone care to make predictions on the outcome of IL-06? List the winner, plus the percentages. (Don't forget there's a third candidate in the race, a college prof. named Lindy Scott.)

Posted at 09:38 AM in 2006 Elections, Illinois | Technorati

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Comments

David, just out of curiosity, which Dems do you consider to be in worse shape that Melissa Bean? Of all the incumbent Dems on my radar screen who I'd consider vulnerable, she would be at or near the top.

And I agree about Topinka. Republicans would have to be absolutely insane not to nominate her, and I don't think it's a given that she will be. I take solace in the fact that more than 49% of Pennsylvania Republicans were willing to lose the PA Senate seat because Arlen Specter didn't toe the party line to the letter. Hopefully, such commitment to ideological purity plagues at least that many Illinois Republican primary voters as well.

Posted by: Mark at March 21, 2006 10:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Obviously, this is the kind of thing that reasonable people can disagree about endlessly, and no one can really lay claim to any "better" answers than the next person. But for whatever reason, I'm more concerned about Charlie Melancon, Chet Edwards and VT-AL (open seat) than I am Bean.

I'd also say I'm roughly as concerned about GA-08, GA-12 and IA-03 as I am about Bean - perhaps somewhat less so.

I'm feeling a lot better about OH-06 after the revelations about Blasdell's tax situation, plus that old poll showing Wilson with a commanding lead.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 21, 2006 11:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm also curious to see the results of the Dem. primary in IL-3. I haven't seen any credible assertions that the incumbent is likely to lose his seat, but it's been a passionate, sometimes ugly race, and I'm interested to see the final numbers. In a way IL-6 has deflected attention away from it, as it had the potential also to highlight tensions between establishment and grassroots candidacies.

I agree with you that it will be liberating to get past today's milestone and look on down the calendar to the next hurdles: CA-50 on April 11, clearing the field in the Indiana primaries May 2 and the Ohio primary races the same day, and the Pennsylvania primary May 16. I'm as mortally tired of the agonizing over Casey as I am of the heat over IL-6.

Posted by: Christopher Walker at March 21, 2006 11:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Dear god, we have another two months of dealing with PA-Sen? Ugh. And NOW just upped the ante by endorsing Alan Sandals! (I wonder if the Pennacchio supporters are furious?)

What worries me is that, at least online, I feel like most of the anger won't fade away. Many Hackett supporters still fume a full month later, and I don't expect IL-06 or PA-Sen to be any different. Hopefully this won't make a difference on the ground in the "real world," but if the pro-choice movement actively works against Casey, who knows how bad the reprecussions could be?

Was there a single primary (apart from the presidential, of course) this contention in 2004? Maybe there were, but I can't recall any.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 21, 2006 11:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As a born and bred Illinoisian, I would say that if Topinka is nominated, Blago deserves to lose. While he has had a few, nice progressive initiatives, he has been terrible on the environment and practices cronyism in a manner that would lead to admiration from this White House.

Topinka is a moderate GOPer and fites IL well, so Blaog will have to use his entire $16 million warchest to beat her. He better hope that the natinal trend of unmotivated Republicans holds true this November.

Posted by: Ian in DC at March 21, 2006 01:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

When it comes to Bean's race.

Is there really any ground that Republicans could gain traction on to oppose her?

The only way I could see Bean losing is if Democrats don't show up

Posted by: RBH at March 21, 2006 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Bean's strength is her campaign warchest of well over $1 million. The problem is that there are 2 GOPers in the primary who could self-finance the race and still outspend Bean. We have to hope that a more ideological conservative wins the primary.

Posted by: Ian in DC at March 21, 2006 01:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My guess on IL-06 is that Duckworth will win just a guess. But on May 2nd we have 3 more primaries Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 21, 2006 04:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, while I agree with you on principle regarding Topinka, my only worry is that having a GOP governor can effect the Senate. Let's say Obama gets named to a higher post once a Democrat is in the White House. Then, Topinka gets to pick a Republican to replace him. And that would definitely be bad.

Of course, on the other hand, if Topinka wins, it gives Obama someone to unseat when he runs for governor, which will put him in a much better position for the presidency in 2012 or 2016 . . .

Posted by: The Caped Composer at March 21, 2006 04:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey David! I'm gonna take a shot at percentages for IL-6:

Duckworth: 40%
Cegelis: 33%
Scott: 17%

I still don't understand why this race didn't get polled. You would have thought that with Duckworth's media attention, one of the newspapers or networks would have invested in one.

Posted by: Harold at March 21, 2006 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oops, I meant to address my post to Ian, not David. Sorry!

Posted by: The Caped Composer at March 21, 2006 05:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wouldn't trust Topinka's mod credentials.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/illinoisstatenews/story/F646ED2DD71F2B4286257134001C4F32?OpenDocument

She's only moderate when it comes to abortion and gay rights. Everything else (taxes, environment, health care, budget) and she appears grover norquestish. Plus what is she going to do with the tobacco settlement money if she's a chain-smoker?

I have not been happy with Blago. Especially environmentally. We need about 10 times as much land in our state preserve system (especially prairie lands). And just until last week I really hated him for not balancing the budget by creating a new upper income tax bracket.

But I was home last week in Illinois and we happened to have a booklet that Jim Edgar (former governor in 90s) put together back when he was secretary of state in the 80s. It had the Illinois consitution in the back. And the first words I read were something to the effect of,

"The income tax shall not be progressive."

WTF! But then I realized why Blago made that stupid promise not to raise taxes (Illinois currently has a 3% income tax rate). When you raise taxes in Illinois, you have to raise taxes for everyone. Much harder than trying to do it progressively and making Oprah and Oberweiss pay their fair share.

It sucks, but then I didn't hate Blago so much anymore. So maybe the real fight should be to change the Illinois consitution. So then when Pat Quinn is elected governor we can create a 15% tax bracket for millionares. Sigh... that's the dream anyway.

Fran for Dean said Blago's commercials were good. I agree. I think the Dems will come home by Nov.

Another ace up his sleeve that people don't realize is that I think the All Kids program has a chance to significantly increase turnout amongst low income voters. Now they actually have a concrete reason to vote Democratic for the first time in a long time.

Plus my mom as of tonight will be the new precinct committee chair. So turnout in our precinct (of 100 democrats out of 1500 voters) will double by Nov.!

Posted by: nada at March 21, 2006 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictions for IL-06:

Cegelis 53%, Duckworth 40%, Scott 6%, Others 1%.

I'm not gonna predict numbers for IL-Gov, but think Topinka will win by a comfortable margin.

Do the polls close at 8 eastern, 7 central?

And just an aside to nada's question about what Topinka would do with tobacco settlement money, if she's smart she'd put most of it in reserves for the inevitably rainy days ahead. One of most shockingly stupid trends in state governments across the country is their decision to make themselves more revenue-dependent on the declining product of tobacco each passing year. I've been saying for years now that the 1998 tobacco settlement turned out to one of the worst things to ever happen for state government. When mother goose quits laying all the golden eggs (and she will) the budgetary squeeze facing every state government will be absolutely crushing.

Posted by: Mark at March 21, 2006 07:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Lord I hope Topinka doesn't win.

Don't forget though that Topinka has some skeletons too, a la the hotel deal in springfield.

It will also be hard for her to argue against all kids (which Blago will most certainly force her to do). Then hopefully she will be reduced to the chain-smoking heartless bitch that she is.

Posted by: nada at March 21, 2006 07:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I dont comment often, but here goes:
Duckworth: 58%
Cegelis: 37%
Scott: 4%
Others: 1%

Just a total, complete guess.

Posted by: Jared86 at March 21, 2006 07:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Cegelis 42%
Duckworth 38%
Scott 20%

Predictions based on the in-depth analysis:
http://www.soapblox.net/chicago/showDiary.do?diaryId=1435

Posted by: Philosophe Forum at March 21, 2006 08:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Did Results start coming in 20 minutes ago or do they start coming in 40 minutes from now.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 21, 2006 08:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

prediction: if Duckworth wins, it'll be blamed on Diebold. (Yeah, Diebold is running elections in DuPage)

Posted by: RBH at March 21, 2006 08:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL, someone on Daily Kos reported that the polls don't close until 9 Eastern, so we should be about 10 minutes from zero hour. My guess is the most motivated IL-06 voters will be angry Cegelis supporters, which bodes poorly for Duckworth whose supporter lies mostly outside district boundaries. Ultimately, I think Duckworth would be better positioned to win in the general election than Cegelis.

Posted by: Mark at March 21, 2006 08:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hm here are some early results from IL-06 i don't if i can trust them or not...

Scott 192 (21%)
Cegelis 350 (38%)
Duckworth 365 (40%)

Posted by: D in FL. at March 21, 2006 10:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

6 out of 520 somthing...

Christine Cegelis(D) 449 (39%)
Lindy Scott(D) 205 (17%)
Tammy Duckworth(D) 487 (42%)

Posted by: D in FL. at March 21, 2006 10:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good lord, we're at that much risk of losing VT-AL? I don't understand that.

I think the Miles-Salazar thing was about as bad as the Pennacchio-Casey thing. In 2004, I don't think anyone was invested enough in House races to get worked up about them. It takes a couple cycles to have dogs in the hunt, like Cegelis. Senate primaries are easier to get worked up about, but there weren't any except in Colorado.

Posted by: texas dem at March 21, 2006 10:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VT-AL should be secure.. i think people are overplaying it. more on IL-06.. also Blago. won the Dem. Nomination. getting most of the results from Dkos. Looks like Duckworth is starting to pull away..

IL-06 77 of 526 Precincts
Christine Cegelis(D) 2324 (39%)
Lindy Scott(D) 974 (16%)
Tammy Duckworth(D) 2627 (44%)

Posted by: D in FL. at March 21, 2006 11:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hm... very close..

70% in...12 vote lead for Duckworth

Christine Cegelis DEM 7489 41.44%
Lindy Scott DEM 3068 16.98%
L. Tammy Duckworth DEM 7501 41.51%
Write-in Votes 14 0.08%

Posted by: D in FL. at March 21, 2006 11:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Daniel Seals winning as the Dem candidate in IL-10?

I take it this isn't the same guy who was "England Dan" in the 1970's and "Dan Seals" the country singer of the 1980's. :)

Posted by: Mark at March 22, 2006 12:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David McSweeny is the guy who gets to lose to Bean in 2006!

U.S. House - District 8 - GOP Primary - Illinois 415 of 518 Precincts Reporting - 80.12%
Name Party Votes Pct
McSweeney , David GOP 18,864 41.11
Salvi , Kathy GOP 14,924 32.52
Churchill , Robert GOP 8,241 17.96
Lincoln , Aaron GOP 2,142 4.67
Arnold , Ken GOP 1,005 2.19
Mitchell , James GOP 711 1.55

Posted by: D in FL. at March 22, 2006 12:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DEM CON 06 DIST REP DEM
Total
Number of Precincts 399
Precincts Reporting 393 98.5 %
Times Counted 26319/268458 9.8 %
Total Votes 25008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Christine Cegelis DEM 10369 41.46%
Lindy Scott DEM 4106 16.42%
L. Tammy Duckworth DEM 10511 42.03%
Write-in Votes 22 0.09%

Posted by: del at March 22, 2006 12:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D, I wouldn't call McSweeney a loser just yet. Bean's biggest advantage has been her ability to raise money but McSweeney is filthy rich. He spent a million dollars of his own money in an early primary. Bean is probably still favored but this is going to be a nailbiter regardless.

Posted by: safi at March 22, 2006 12:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Topinka wins GOP priamry for Govenor not good for Dems... also i think Bean will win no reason to get rid of her when The GOP in general is in big trouble in 06.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 22, 2006 12:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In Illinois both parties aren't thought of very highly though.

The fact that Bean is in a Republican district which Topinka will almost certainly carry with a solid margin and she's going up against an opponent with DEEP pockets, definitely should concern some people.

Posted by: safi at March 22, 2006 12:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In IL-06 it seems Duckworth will win with a very very narrow margin. Now it is up to Cegelis at to what happens next she can A: Concede and support Duckworth or B: Demands recounts, claim voter fraud etc. while there seems to be some basis for it I belive it will hurt the Democratic party in the end.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 22, 2006 01:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anyone have anything more than 472 remaining? The Votes seemed to have stopped.

Posted by: Democraticavenger at March 22, 2006 02:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Chicago Tribune calls it for Duckworth and she seems to have more than a 1000 vote lead over Cegelis.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 22, 2006 07:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

On WGN, they have just 6 precincts remaining and Duckworth has 14,019 while Cegelis has 12,939. Guys I think this race could get even more ugly

Posted by: safi at March 22, 2006 09:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A few trends have emerged when it comes to IL-06.

#1 is the "Black Knight" defense, which is "Duckworth didn't beat Cegelis by enough"

#2 is the "We'll take our balls and go home", which involves letting Peter Roskam win a Congressional seat because you're mad at Rahm Emanuel.

Both of those trends suck, quite frankly.

Posted by: RBH at March 22, 2006 09:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And as if Blago was reading my mind last night, here's the first thing he had to say about Topinka after he won the primary last night,

"In claiming victory, Blagojevich went after Topinka.

"I don't know what she's thinking when she says no to health care for kids," Blagojevich said. Topinka says she will take a closer look at Blagojevich's universal health care program for children to make sure the state can afford it.""

Also read the first line of the article,

"Republican voters chose a Springfield insider with a brash personality but plenty of political baggage Tuesday to oppose Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich's bid for a second term."

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/heraldnews/top/2_1_AU22_GOVERNOR_S1.htm

So I think Blago will probably be alright. If he can make Topinka look more corrupt than he is, and show that she's a heartless b*tch, then he should be able to pull it out.

Posted by: nada at March 22, 2006 09:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's a quote from Lindy Scott's blog:

"Are Scott and Cegelis Splitting the Vote?
Filed under: General — admin @ 11:59 pm
A question that is raised quite frequently is “Will Scott and Cegelis split the District 6 votes and let Duckworth squeak through with a narrow victory?”"

Posted by: Harold at March 22, 2006 10:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Posted yesterday on Politics 1 dot com, forgot to post here;
Handicapping Illinois 101:

Candidate - Predictions – Actual
*Blago – 69% 70%
*Giannoulias – 58% 61%
*Topinka - 37% 38%
*Birkett - 47% 50.5%
*McSweeney – 38% 42.75%
*Duckworth – 55% 44%

Well, I picked all the winners, my spreads on CD 6 & 8 were off (but not the results), expected Salvi to do better & Cegelis to do worse. Seems I did better with the Statewide Races.
Blago’s 70% showing was impressive, surprised that Oberweis did so well against Topinka. Should make for an interesting Gen Election race. Read: advantage Blago, although Topinka seems the strongest choice against him, she only pulled 38% of the GOP vote, the other 62% went to the Conservatives.
Hopefully Duckworth will receive the support of Cegelis & Scott as she has her work cut out for her.
I'm happier that Mc Sweeney will be facing Bean vs. Salvi, even though he has the bucks. He did not seem very impressive on election night TV.
Looks like there are still 600 precincts out statewide as there are in the Cook Co. Pres Race.

Posted by: Predictor at March 22, 2006 11:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment