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Friday, March 17, 2006

NY-24: It's Gotta Be Retirement

Posted by DavidNYC

Sometimes, the obvious just doesn't click. Rep. Sherwood Boehlert scheduled his announcement for 3pm today. Today is (duh) a Friday. And what kind of news do you release late on a Friday afternoon? News you want to bury. Elton Gallegly announce his retirement late on a Friday. Joel Hefley made his announcement on a Friday. Bill Jenkins was the exception, announcing on a Wednesday.

But man, there's no way you announce good news late on a Friday. I don't often make predictions, but I'm feeling pretty sure about this one - Boehlert is gonna retire. Start your engines, because this is going to be one hot race.

UPDATE: Retirement it is!

More here:

Three Democrats, including Oneida County District Attorney Michael Acuri, have already announced they will run for the seat. Representative Rahm Emanuel, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has said Acuri is one of his key recruits this year. Republicans who have expressed interest in the seat include New York State Senator Ray Meier.

Posted at 12:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Technorati

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Comments

And the rumor is that State Senator Ray Meier is the candidate preferred by the GOP for NY-24.

Posted by: RBH at March 17, 2006 04:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If Meier's the favorite, hopefully we'll beat him in the general and steal his state Senate seat, too! This could be a two-for-one!

Posted by: HellofaSandwich at March 17, 2006 04:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Damn good point, Sandwich. The 47th Senate district has a 69K to 57K GOP registration advantage, which would be tough to overcome, though possible.

David Valesky did win in 2004 in District 49. That district had better registration numbers (65K to 62K, in favor of the GOP), and there was a strong Conservative Party challenge - but Valesky also managed to beat an incumbent.

If District 47 becomes an open seat, that makes it very winnable. In fact, I bet Joe Bruno would beg Maier not to run for NY-24.

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 17, 2006 04:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Granted, if not Meier, then who?

The other two Republican state Senators in the area don't appear to live in NY-24.

Would it be somebody from the Assembly?

BTW, New York State Senate districts are really bizarre looking.

Posted by: RBH at March 17, 2006 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

24 now becomes the hottest race in 06 in New York. Hope Arcuri is the candidate he seems to have the best shot.

Posted by: BENAWU at March 17, 2006 04:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RBH: That's because they're the most gerrymandered in the world. Do you have any idea how hard it is to draw a map such that the GOP has a natural advantage? Many Democratic senate districts have 80% Dem registration. The HIGHEST GOP registration in any senate district is something like 65% (and that's just one district).

Posted by: DavidNYC at March 17, 2006 05:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Exactly, David. If it wasn't for the disgustingly outrageous gerrymandering, the Dems would have regained the state senate by now. Even so, we expect that by 2008, Dems will have taken back control and then, since we'll have all 3 branches of government in NY state, we'll be able to redraw the map so that the edge in registration in most Senate districts is fairly even.

----------------------------------------------------

BTW, New York State Senate districts are really bizarre looking.

Posted by: progressivemuslimnj at March 17, 2006 08:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"David Valesky did win in 2004 in District 49."

This seat was held by Nancy Larraine Hoffman who had been a Dem but switched parties 4 or 6 years ago. It was hospitable territory. The NY Senate is so gerrymander that we will need to pick off seats like Meier's if we are going to get the majority and draw more representative lines. 2006 and 2008 are the times to do it considering the likely strength at the top of the ticket.

Posted by: John Mills at March 18, 2006 10:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You all should check out this guy Les Roberts running in this race. I just saw him speak. He is incredible. He played a huge role in ending the war in the Congo and then snuck into Iraq to measure civilian deaths in the war. He is a public health professional and seems to have a full fledged campaign up and running. I saw him speak a few days ago and was very impressed. He is much smarter than Mike Arcuri and a really good speaker. I understand why Arcuri is being called the frontrunner - he has the slick politician thing going, but he didn't seem to have any grasp on the issue. He just kept saying that he was a good Democrat. Kinda weird.

Check out Roberts - www.lesroberts2006.com

Posted by: ny24dem at March 29, 2006 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment