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Tuesday, March 28, 2006

OH-15: Internal (D) Poll Shows a Close Race

Posted by DavidNYC

This is nice to see. Challenger Mary Jo Kilroy just did an internall poll (sub. only) on her race against Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce (likely voters, no trendlines):

Kilroy: 41
Pryce: 44
(MoE: ±4%)

What makes these super-close results even more amazing is that Pryce has far greater name recognition. She has a 53-30 favorability rating while Kilroy clocks in at 34-17 - fully a 32% edge. If Kilroy gets her name out there, this seat is definitely in play. Kilroy's raised $170K so far (and still has that much on hand), which seems decent for a challenger. (Pryce, though, has almost a million in her warchest.)

What's more, this district trended heavily Dem in 2004. Bush won 52-44 against Gore but had an even 50-50 split against Kerry. The Almanac of American Politics attributes this to a big Dem registration and GOTV drive in Columbus, which is mostly within the 15th CD. Hopefully these gains will stick.

CQ rates this seat as "Republican Favored," which makes it functionally a third-tier race. Charlie Cook, however, puts it in his "Lean Republican" category (PDF), which is his second-tier ranking. And Chuck Todd (via House Race Hotline editor Josh Kraushaar) calls it a "mid-major" race and ranks it 29th overall. But if Kilroy can show a good quarter, that - combined with this strong poll showing - might inspire a few of these gurus to bump this race up a few notches.

(Thanks to Tracy Joan.)

Posted at 10:53 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Technorati

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Comments

Imagine what could be done if the district lines kept most of Columbus in one district, instead of dividing it.

Tiberi v. Shamansky could be an interesting race, just for the sheer uniqueness of it.

Bob Shamansky is a 78 year old former Congressman (who lost in 1982 to John Kasich) and apparently he's running a pretty good campaign considering his long hiatus from politics.

OH-12 is also a very divided district when it comes to 2004 Presidential results.

Shamansky's run will probably lay the foundation for another candidate in 2008.

It'll be interesting.

Posted by: RBH at March 28, 2006 11:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

From the very beginning I was predicting this would be a competitive race and that Kilroy had a good chance for an upset, even though it didn't seem to be on anyone else's radar screen. Nice to see my instincts were right.

Posted by: Mark at March 28, 2006 11:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I like the "mid-major" moniker. Especially considering how well George Mason's doing.

Posted by: Sarah R Carter at March 29, 2006 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Charlie Cook has the map done right as for how competitive things are. On;t thing I'd change on Dem offense is to move KY-04 up to Toss-up. Rest seems about right to me.

Way I figure, Take Cook's 10 Tossups, KY-04, NY-24, NC-11, OH-15, IL-06, and PA-08 and there's your election for the dems to win the house with 1 more than necessary.

Posted by: trowaman at March 29, 2006 01:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't know isn't this a internal poll usually that means that it leans Dem just saying.

Posted by: D in FL. at March 29, 2006 01:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment