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Sunday, March 05, 2006
TX-28: Early Voting Looks to Favor Ciro
Posted by DavidNYCEarly voting has concluded in the Texas primaries. Chuco, in a DKos diary, crunches the numbers. He compares turnout this cycle vs. 2004:
Webb County (Cuellar's base): Decrease of 2.5%
Bexar County (Rodriguez's base): Increase of 7.3%
Cucho points out a few other salient facts:
• A hot sherrif's race in Laredo (Webb Co.) last cycle increased turnout and helped Cuellar. No such luck for him this time.• Cuellar's performance in Webb Co. might actually be weaker than the numbers indicate. That's because a contested county commissioner's race in Webb may be driving up overall county turnout this year - but that commissioner's district doesn't overlap with TX-28 at all.
• On the flipside, Ciro's showing may well be stronger. People are turning out for a major state senate race in the San Antonia area (which is in Bexar Co.). Unlike the commissioner's race, this senate district does overlap with TX-28.
But for all thse early voting ruminations, Chuco's final point is the most important: This ain't over yet - not by a long shot. We've got a lot more work to do: Contribute | Volunteer.
Posted at 04:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Technorati
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Comments
I did some phone banking over the weekend; and in my very limited poll, Ciero was the favorite.
So...Ciero will either win outright or force a run-off.
Posted by: Mimi Schaeffer at March 7, 2006 10:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment